Summer 2018 - General Discussion

Oscar Bravo

2pm, a perfect summers afternoon across the west:

Newport Co.Mayo 24 degrees

Claremorris,Finner,Markree,Athenry,and Mount Dillon all 23 degrees

Gonzo

compsys wrote: »

Another day of 19 or 20 for Dublin it seems.

It’s pleasant and the clear skies are beautiful but at this stage I wouldn’t mind something a bit warmer as these are only slightly above average temps for the East coast. And the nights have been boarding on chilly!

Is it actually even possible for Dublin to get warmer in set-ups like this or does the sea always keep temps around 20 when there’s an easterly?

I’d understand if it were March or April, but it’s now coming into mid June and there’s still a huge cooling effect from the sea. It seems more pronounced than other years, even though we’re into week 3 of a mini heatwave.

The chill of the Irish Sea breezes are definitely more harsh this time around and also stretching further inland more than usual as well, due to the mostly incredibly cold March/early April conditions.

Once the current easterly sourced warm spell is over, those of us in the east probably won't notice any real temperature drop (unless there is lots of wind, cloud and rain from the Atlantic).

Once we get back to the south-westerlies with some dry and sunny days, temperatures could be higher than what we've been experiencing over the past 2 weeks.

If the current spell was to happen again mid August, there would still be a cooling effect but it would be far less noticeable and probably only really effect a few miles in from the coast, rather than most of Leinster.

Oscar Bravo

3pm

Newport 25 degrees

Mobhi1

The Irish Sea doesn't really start warming up until August or September. In June it's still quite chilly.

sryanbruen

At the beginning of July 2013, the Irish Sea was still very cold coming after the long cold Winter and the coldest Spring since 1962 (see the NOAA SST anomaly chart for 1 July 2013 below).

How we got plentiful sunshine with little disturbance was the fact that the high pressure came from the south and the winds were variable in direction than just easterly. By the 11th, the Irish Sea had dramatically warmed up as consecutive days reached the mid to high 20s.



You can find other SST anomaly charts for 2013 in the link below.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2013.html

SleetAndSnow

Lovely day in cork city. Warm and blue skies with a nice gentle not too cold breeze. 22 degrees rn

eon1208

Quick Question for Sryan.. Looking at the charts are forecasting a breakdown to rain by next Tuesday. What are your thoughts on the possibility of dry weather from now until Tuesday in the midlands. Have a bit of work to do that needs dry weather and my gut instinct is to go for it now and not wait. But the breakdown by Tuesday worries me a little. Love your thoughts on this. BTW, really appreciate all your informative posts. Learning a lot..

Oneiric 3

The nice little breeze of earlier has dropped off and as a result, temps and humidity are on the rise again. Current reading:



Actually has gone up to 25.2c since I uploaded that snapshot. Really feels very very warm now.

Oneiric 3

Mobhi1 wrote: »

The Irish Sea doesn't really start warming up until August or September. In June it's still quite chilly.

Current SST anomalies around NW Europe: (UK Met)

Elmer Blooker

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

3pm

Newport 25 degrees

A mere 17.4c here.

What would I do to be on the strand in Keem Bay, Achill?

compsys

Gonzo wrote: »

The chill of the Irish Sea breezes are definitely more harsh this time around and also stretching further inland more than usual as well, due to the mostly incredibly cold March/early April conditions.

Once the current easterly sourced warm spell is over, those of us in the east probably won't notice any real temperature drop (unless there is lots of wind, cloud and rain from the Atlantic).

Once we get back to the south-westerlies with some dry and sunny days, temperatures could be higher than what we've been experiencing over the past 2 weeks.

If the current spell was to happen again mid August, there would still be a cooling effect but it would be far less noticeable and probably only really effect a few miles in from the coast, rather than most of Leinster.

Yes, that's the ironic thing about weather set-ups like this. When the "heatwave" ends, the East actually turns slightly warmer!

Up to 20C now in Phoenix Park according to ME. In fairness, apart from yesterday, it's about the 10th day in a row the temp has broken 20 at the station so not too bad I guess.

It does feel slightly warmer in the sun though.

sryanbruen

eon1208 wrote: »

Quick Question for Sryan.. Looking at the charts are forecasting a breakdown to rain by next Tuesday. What are your thoughts on the possibility of dry weather from now until Tuesday in the midlands. Have a bit of work to do that needs dry weather and my gut instinct is to go for it now and not wait. But the breakdown by Tuesday worries me a little. Love your thoughts on this. BTW, really appreciate all your informative posts. Learning a lot..

I've analysed the GFS 06z ensembles for Portlaoise (I chose this randomly) here. Temperatures will continue to be well above average for early June until early next week when they start to take a dip down towards average; so you will be seeing similar temperatures as you have been experiencing for the next couple of days.

In terms of it being dry, tomorrow and Friday are expected to be bone dry for Portlaoise at this moment whilst there is the small likelihood of some thundery showers to occur during the weekend. Keep in mind, this is a small chance for now of less than 25%. These thundery showers are far more likely over the south coasts and northwestern regions. For about a week from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards, the westerlies return bringing in some rain from the Atlantic and cooler temperatures. It's a very typical Irish week and nothing out of the ordinary or alarming though some GFS runs have shown quite a wet day for Friday 15th but that's an awful long way off so not worth really delving into.

Following the return of the westerlies, there is growing confidence again on the models that high pressure will come back during the second half of June sometime which will bring the temperatures back up and drier weather. This high is more likely at this current moment to reside either to the south of Ireland or the east of Ireland leading to anticyclonic conditions or southerly winds.

I did not update on the 0z models this morning in the FI charts thread because there wasn't really anything new to show. The ECM was still delaying the return of the westerlies somewhat.

Now saying all that, I think yes you should do what you are trying to achieve. Just remember that there is the small chance for thundery showers over the weekend and I put emphasis on small chance.

Graces7

Very warm over here; West Mayo offshore island. But a sweet breeze off the Atlantic . small clouds around the edges of the blue..Very dry though.

Whispered

We're heading off on our holidays to Sligo on the 15th. I feel like this spell is using up all our good weather pity it can't be bottled!

Oneiric 3

Latest temp map:



Ireland is burning.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Latest temp map:

Ireland is burning.

Continuing to be warmer than a lot of Iberia.



One thing I'd like to note is that Spain had its coolest June in 2013 since 1997. In some ways, this June is similar to how 2013 started with a warm and sunny spell and June 2013 had a return of the westerlies during its second week with some very wet conditions.

eon1208

Thanks Sryan.. I appreciate the response as forecasting the weather is sometimes a thankless task, depending of course on your intending audience. But you views are appreciated and BTW Portlaoise is not far from me.. TY

squarecircles

Normal service resumes.be hard getting used to our night time minimums becoming our daytime maximums again.proper doses of irish summer time misery returning. A grey unending feautureless status cloud,and a chill in the evening air,you cant beat it. NOT.

i was trying earlier to imagine this weather replicating itself day after day,not for weeks,but for months over an entire season,throughout a lifetime but my brain just couldnt imagine it.its only when you get to experience this beautiful weather you understand what a raw deal we get in ireland and how it makes our quality of life so poor.

on a more positive not it has been another fantabulous day in Mayo,i think castlebar reached 25 degrees.

Oneiric 3

Am seeing some dense looking cauliflowers building in my northern horizon. Hard to say if they will be build any further but maybe a cooling shower later for somewhere around Sligo/east Mayo?

km79

Spectacular evening

Oscar Bravo

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Am seeing some dense looking cauliflowers building in my northern horizon. Hard to say if they will be build any further but maybe a cooling shower later for somewhere around Sligo/east Mayo?

I can see some north of Castlebar towards the Neiphin mountains

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

Continuing to be warmer than a lot of Iberia.


One thing I'd like to note is that Spain had its coolest June in 2013 since 1997. In some ways, this June is similar to how 2013 started with a warm and sunny spell and June 2013 had a return of the westerlies during its second week with some very wet conditions.

That's interesting as both years had a SSW and a cold March?
I'm not saying there's a connection but as I said interesting.
edit: both years being '13 and '18 (not 1997)

JCX BXC

19.1c here in West Clare after a Max of 21.2c. In the last hour a breeze has kicked in with some sea cloud, although most of it appears to have burned off before it reaches here. Humidity at 84%.

12th day in a row with 20c + maximums. Unheard of nearly.

Oneiric 3

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

I can see some north of Castlebar towards the Neiphin mountains

We are probably looking at the same cloud from very different parts of the country. It appears to be still building but hard to tell if it will break passed the 'congestus' stage at this point.

Clonmel1000

I’m lost for words it’s just glorious

sryanbruen

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

That's interesting as both years had a SSW and a cold March?
I'm not saying there's a connection but as I said interesting.
edit: both years being '13 and '18 (not 1997)

Yes and 2013 was one of my analogue years for Summer 2018 too.

JCX BXC wrote: »

19.1c here in West Clare after a Max of 21.2c. In the last hour a breeze has kicked in with some sea cloud, although most of it appears to have burned off before it reaches here. Humidity at 84%.

12th day in a row with 20c + maximums. Unheard of nearly.

The longest period of 20c+ this early in the season at Shannon Airport that I know of in modern times is 13 days in late May and early June 2016 (28 May to 9 June) - see graph below of the station's daily temperatures for the period in question.

Meteorite58

Stubborn heavy cloud not budging here today near Tralee except for a few brief glimmers of sunlight but totally overcast now with low stratus with a hazy look to the air.

Got up to 19.6C and currently 16.9C

Artane2002

I'm very sorry for you Meteorite! Words fail to describe how beautiful today is for me in Dublin.

Cork Boy 53

When you look at what much of the southern half of Europe is experiencing at present with massive thunderstorms and disruption, we should thank our lucky stars for the weather most of us have been getting.

Rock Lesnar

Just back from a spin on the bike, what an evening, just glorious