Property Market 2018

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

im sure there are, but there are very few ex big 4 doing 50-60k accounting jobs, if they are they are in the wrong profession

I know quite a few in Cork tbh.
Working in basic enough gigs in accounting depts in large companies, none of them actually enjoyed or liked the final year or so of the big4 experience.

Also, I'm not just on about the big4 to be fair but not all of them can be great going in so not all of them will be great on completion. It's a numbers game like anything else.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

I know quite a few in Cork tbh.
Working in basic enough gigs in accounting depts in large companies, none of them actually enjoyed or liked the final year or so of the big4 experience.

Also, I'm not just on about the big4 to be fair but not all of them can be great going in so not all of them will be great on completion. It's a numbers game like anything else.

i agree that anyone trained outside the big 4 can be hit and miss as the big 4 hoover up all of the best academically.

There is no doubt that they are academically smart people but not all are suited to accountancy. But imo if we arent including these people on the cohort of highly skilled irish employees we are setting the bar too high.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

M.Cribben wrote: »

More great news this morning.
Dublin rents up up 12.8pc from March 2017 to March 2018, nationally up 11.5pc

www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/revealed-how-much-rents-have-rocketed-above-celtic-tiger-peak-36872121.html

I don't think the crash everyone is predicting will be along any time soon.

Jesus that's some jump

super_furry

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Jesus that's some jump

And it's going to force up housing prices as long as it's cheaper to pay a mortgage than to rent.

Bob24

M.Cribben wrote: »

More great news this morning.
Dublin rents up up 12.8pc from March 2017 to March 2018, nationally up 11.5pc

www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/revealed-how-much-rents-have-rocketed-above-celtic-tiger-peak-36872121.html

Is there anyone left in the room to argue RPZ regulation is working?

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Bob24

super_furry wrote: »

And it's going to force up housing prices as long as it's cheaper to pay a mortgage than to rent.

Definitely, and this kind of headlines might also bring some more investors into the market.

I know it’s not the full story and the cost of being a landlord has increased, but when people read that rents are 30% above the previous peak while purchasing prices are 20% below, some will think there is investment value to be had.

Bob24

draiochtanois wrote: »

It's working fine for tenants who have a place.
It's working fine for institutional investors who have guaranteed returns of 4% plus any capital growth they can get.
It works well for FTBs who can buy places off exiting landlords.

That's my best shot :pac:

Nice attempt I applaud you temerity ;-)

I agree on the last point but only partly on the first one and not at all on the second one btw :-)

It works for a good number of people, but many in situ tenants are getting evicted for more or less valid reasons and end up having to both pay more and bother moving to a new place due to the regulation, not exactly great for them.

And I’m sure institutional landlords would be happy to increase by more than 4% if they could. Not sure I follow you on that one, the regulation guarantees a maximum rise but not a minimum so how is it good for them?

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Bob24

draiochtanois wrote: »

The institutional investors will raise by 4% when the market can take it. (for the foreseeable future in Ireland)

A guaranteed return of 4% is very high. You won't get it in cash or bonds. You will get it in equities but only over the long term and there is much more volatility.

Yeah agreed it’s a good investment for them as it is, but if the market could take 8% I’m sure they would gladly increase by 8% and make it an even better investment - but the regulation is preventing them from doing so. From that perspective how is it good for them?

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Bob24

draiochtanois wrote: »

Markets reward predictability

Google "Dividend Aristocrats"

Say the market could take 8% in 2018 4% in 2019 and 0% in 2020

They would raise it 4%,4%,4%

They are deferring some income

+ you are conditioning tenants to expect 4% increases as the norm!

Typically small scale landlords didn't raise prices for sitting tenants - now they have to!

Since we are talking increases in the amount of yearly dividends and not capital increase, 8, 4, 0 would be financially better than 4, 4, 4 though as in both cases the yearly income is the same at the end of the period (+12% compared to the first year) but it the first one it is higher for the first 2 years (i.e. increasing 4% per year it is passing on some of the revenue you could get for the first 2 years rather than deferring it, as you will never recover it).

But yeah agreed on small landlords.

Anyway - going off-topic at this stage.

adocholiday

The property market is really worrying for us right now. The kind of house we want in the locations that we'd like are few and far between and the prices are rising by the day.

We are approved for a decent sum with the central bank rules but I'm not comfortable borrowing that much to be honest. I know it's highly situation dependent as to what is an 'affordable mortgage', but is 3.5x salary actually really affordable? Also we're worried about over-paying for a house. Maybe we're just being over cautious.

Does anyone have a good resource for budgeting for mortgage repayments? Might help us with our price limit etc.

Samuel T. Cogley

adocholiday wrote: »

The property market is really worrying for us right now. The kind of house we want in the locations that we'd like are few and far between and the prices are rising by the day.

We are approved for a decent sum with the central bank rules but I'm not comfortable borrowing that much to be honest. I know it's highly situation dependent as to what is an 'affordable mortgage', but is 3.5x salary actually really affordable? Also we're worried about over-paying for a house. Maybe we're just being over cautious.

Does anyone have a good resource for budgeting for mortgage repayments? Might help us with our price limit etc.

How do you mean? Like a repayment calculator?

bigpink

adocholiday wrote: »

The property market is really worrying for us right now. The kind of house we want in the locations that we'd like are few and far between and the prices are rising by the day.

We are approved for a decent sum with the central bank rules but I'm not comfortable borrowing that much to be honest. I know it's highly situation dependent as to what is an 'affordable mortgage', but is 3.5x salary actually really affordable? Also we're worried about over-paying for a house. Maybe we're just being over cautious.

Does anyone have a good resource for budgeting for mortgage repayments? Might help us with our price limit etc.

i know a couple in Limerick that have a budget of 210 with maybe 10 k wiggle room and they can not get anything all bids going alot higher than they can afford

adocholiday

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

How do you mean? Like a repayment calculator?

I don't really know if that's what you'd call it. I'm thinking something like a tool where you can put in the amount you're borrowing and you can add things in like one-off payments, interest rate changes etc.

bigpink wrote: »

i know a couple in Limerick that have a budget of 210 with maybe 10 k wiggle room and they can not get anything all bids going alot higher than they can afford

That's happened to us recently. Like the asking price of the house was well within our affordable range but there was a bit of a bidding war and it went for more than 100k more than asking! That's what lead to my question on affordability vs overpaying for a house. It's such a minefield buying a house, and very frustrating and stressful

AsianDub

adocholiday wrote: »

Does anyone have a good resource for budgeting for mortgage repayments? Might help us with our price limit etc.

Something like this? It's what I use to predict future payments.

https://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/

bigpink

adocholiday wrote: »

I don't really know if that's what you'd call it. I'm thinking something like a tool where you can put in the amount you're borrowing and you can add things in like one-off payments, interest rate changes etc.



That's happened to us recently. Like the asking price of the house was well within our affordable range but there was a bit of a bidding war and it went for more than 100k more than asking! That's what lead to my question on affordability vs overpaying for a house. It's such a minefield buying a house, and very frustrating and stressful

I think people are putting on the brakes going wait another while for a cooling down

oceanman

bigpink wrote: »

I think people are putting on the brakes going wait another while for a cooling down

it cant keep going the way it is for much longer....can it? surely there has to be a cooling down on the way.

bigpink

oceanman wrote: »

it cant keep going the way it is for much longer....can it? surely there has to be a cooling down on the way.

Well people cant affod now so they aint buying

Samuel T. Cogley

That's not bourne out by the stats - plenty of 30 somethings with large deposits buying or middle aged people trading up with significant equity.

bigpink

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

That's not bourne out by the stats - plenty of 30 somethings with large deposits buying or middle aged people trading up with significant equity.

Just going by the people i know late 20s early 30s theyfeel they will never have a place

Samuel T. Cogley

bigpink wrote: »

Just going by the people i know late 20s early 30s theyfeel they will never have a place

It's a symptom of the dysfunctional market we have but Irish people want to jump into the forever home or at least a family home. People in their twenties should be buying apartments in a capital city and trading up. That said even apartments are beginning to get out of reach to single people.

Melendez

This post has been deleted.

eeguy

F*ck this.
I was prepared to buy this year but things are ridiculous.
We're basically back to the early days of the boom. Huge demand and no supply.

Seeing as the govt are keen on going so far as seizing property to build on I'd say there'll be a glut of houses in the next 2 years. There's 3 new housing projects going on within 10 mins drove of me right now and talk of more.

Might just keep saving and wait for the drop.

M.Cribben

eeguy wrote: »

F*ck this.
I was prepared to buy this year but things are ridiculous.
We're basically back to the early days of the boom. Huge demand and no supply.

Seeing as the govt are keen on going so far as seizing property to build on I'd say there'll be a glut of houses in the next 2 years. There's 3 new housing projects going on within 10 mins drove of me right now and talk of more.

Might just keep saving and wait for the drop.

There was plenty of supply during the Celtic tiger years. Easy access to huge amounts of credit (10x salary) and 100+% mortgages are what drove prices up.

Davy stockbrokers estimate we need to complete 35-50k units per year to meet current demand. Currently the rate is 15-20k units per year. The only way that significant drop you're waiting for will occur (barring external factors like a hike in ECB base rates), is if completions start outnumbering demand. We're a long way from that happening.

I don't understand the logic people use to predict this supposed upcoming crash, it seems largely based on "property prices were this level before the crash, and because they are nearly at the same level again implies another crash is imminent".. while ignoring all the other factors which caused the previous crash (mass unemployment and emigration, global recession, banking crisis, restricted lending, etc.)

ELM327

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

My empirical evidence of my circle of friends (immigrants) as well as neighbours and what I read here as reported by HR people says otherwise.

For many who came here for money the realisation came that Ireland as we knew it when we first arrived 12-14 years ago, is over. Disposable income is not that great as it used to be, many just survive and wait for kids to finish schools and other small milestones. Better to be poor at home. At least there's family, friends and usually a family home to take over.

Those who came here from abroad recently seem give up within short timeframe, they are different in the way that it's unlikely that they will settle here, it's just a transition into something better career wise back at home. They usually seem to give up on first encounter of Irish health services, scumbags, landlords, commuting, public transport, floods, the beast from the east or other lame excuse for lack of infrastructure.

Of course, this is only my opinion, but have a look at expat forums on Facebook, the sentiment is very very bad, that includes people in senior positions.

Of course, people leave and are replaced but the new ones don't seem to be impressed with Ireland Inc.

I think you mixed up empirical with anecdotal

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Agree totally with the above. The underlying fundamentals of this go round are totally different. The supply is still really short, and the longer it goes on the more the supply shortage is going to build up. This is coupled with atrocious rents, so people have no interest in renting and may stay at home to save larger deposits. On top of all this the Irish economy is overall doing quite well so a cohort of the population do have money to be spending. In my opinion we are going to see price rises for at least the next three years and possibly more. We are still way off the completions that we need

Bob24

My view on the long term outlook:

The global economy is cyclical and at some point there will be a global economic crisis/recession. When this happens a small and open FDI driven economy like Ireland’s will be very negatively impacted (with our economy we basically shine in good times and underperform in bad times). This will cause null or negative immigration figure and will balance supply with demand. Property supply might also overshoot for a while at that stage as people are leaving and construction is still ongoing. This plus rising unemployement will cause property prices to drop.

This is the only way I see for supply to meet demand in the medium term and for prices to stabilise and eventually drop (I don’t believe supply will ever rise enough to meet current demand, matching them requires a drop in demand). I strongly think it will happen at some point in the next 10 years but it’s very hard to know when (or to know at which price levels the next peak and bottom will happen).

But until then I don’t ever see supply meeting demand in Dublin hence prices will keep rising (the pace of that rise will probably reduce at some point though).

M.Cribben

M.Cribben wrote: »

There was plenty of supply during the Celtic tiger years. Easy access to huge amounts of credit (10x salary) and 100+% mortgages are what drove prices up......

There are frequent mentions of this. I got a mortgage off BOI in 2005, i borrowed slightly over 4 times my annual salary but they weren't going to give me much more.

Looking at some figures, €50k salary back then was about €3000/month net after basic pension contribution etc etc.

A €500k 30 year mortgage was about €2500/month ....... did anyone get a 10x salary mortgage? Seriously like.