Property Market 2018

Samuel T. Cogley

Bob24 wrote: »

Out of curiosity if you rent it again will you bother advertising it or you will just go with people who have heard about it in your own circle or have been referred to you? (I'm not looking for a place :-) - just wondering how landlords usually do it as I will leave my well below market rate apartment soon and I know people who would be interested in taking it over - don't know of there is any point mentioning them to the landlord).

Just going with recommendations if I cant convince the wife

Augeo wrote: »

If you overpaid at the height of the boom at 295 surely you won't get 250k now?

Not sure, there is a ground floor, smaller, as well maintained without parking that's on the market at 200K offers being refused to 205K (So he's had that offer). My maths put us at about 225K with hopefully some scope for a 5-7% rise from Feb-July putting us at around 235-240ish.

Just doing the maths now another year does seem prudent.

However there is planned building works which may put off buyers. While that would come out in the searches I think that's better than cranes looming large.

MayoSalmon

In 2006 nearly 100,000 houses were built...in 2017 we built around 12,000-15,000.

I think that says it all really.

Samuel T. Cogley

bil_clay wrote: »

D8 is pretty rapidly gentrifying , a property should not be sold if its cash positive , is it possible because you were in negative equity for so long , you developed a get out target in mind , should you reconsider and decide to keep it for another two decades or at least another five years , your property could end up having been a good buy , a property in a city as wealthy as dublin is a good asset , do you need the money elsewhere ?

Honestly as we've locked in our fixed rate for ten years it would sit idle (or be invested) no need for the money for another ten years which I suppose supports the conclusion we maybe just hang on to it.

Bob24

bil_clay wrote: »

it doesnt reveal as much as you might think , during the bubble , a sh1t load of houses were built in the ar5e hole of nowhere for tax purposes , there was never much of an over supply in dublin at any stage and if there was , it was a very short lived situation , even in 2011 and 2012 , rents remained reasonably good , no one could buy due to a crippled non functioning banking sector but people still were looking for homes in dublin and struggling to get them , as many people were arriving into the country as leaving for the most part this past decade

Yes agreed with most of that.

Having said that I'd say there was a clear oversupply of rental properties in Dublin around 2009-2011. I knew someone living in one of the then just completed Grand Canal Dock developments paying 1200 for a 3 beds and half the building was left empty for several months as there were no takers to rent the apartments. Nowadays they rent like hotcakes and you'd be very happy if you can get just one bedroom in that same 3 beds apartment for 1200. People who were renting at that time will also remember that for 2-3 years they could call the landlord every year and ask for a significant drop on their rent.

*But* as you say it was very short lived. It was purely due to rising unemployment and emigration and not really due to a crazy number of new builds in the city, and demand to fill-up all properties resumed very quickly.

bigpink

Think a lot of people are giving up trying to buy now

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

M.Cribben

bigpink wrote: »

Think a lot of people are giving up trying to buy now

I think the opposite is actually true, because the rental market is so dysfunctional people have no other choice but to look into buying.
Everyone needs to live somewhere. Housing is not some optional luxury, along with food it's a basic necessity of human life.

Bob24

M.Cribben wrote: »

I think the opposite is actually true, because the rental market is so dysfunctional people have no other choice but to look into buying.
Everyone needs to live somewhere. Housing is not some optional luxury, along with food it's a basic necessity of human life.

Yes and with people getting older (needing more space and hitting the age limit for longer mortgages), not everyone can afford to wait until the next crash. There is still a fairly large backlog of 30-somethings who want to buy their own place and feel like they don’t have all the time in the world to do so.

If someone was in their mid 20s on a good wage and thinking of buying, I think I might suggest to save as much as possible for a deposit and wait though. They have enough time in front of them to bet on a crash at some point in the next 10 years (fairly safe bet IMO) and get ready to reap the benefits with their large deposit.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes and with people getting older (needing more space and hitting the age limit for longer mortgages), not everyone can afford to wait until the next crash. There is still a fairly large backlog of 30-somethings who want to buy their own place and feel like they don’t have all the time in the world to do so.

If someone was in their mid 20s on a good wage and thinking of buying, I think I might suggest to save as much as possible for a deposit and wait though. They have enough time in front of them to bet on a crash at some point in the next 10 years (fairly safe bet IMO) and get ready to reap the benefits with their large deposit.

Who will give them the mortgage though when this crash happens?

Bob24

Eleanor Howling Anorexic wrote: »

Who will give them the mortgage though when this crash happens?

If they have a large deposit and a job they’ll get a mortgage no problem even during a downturn. If they save for several years and wait for prices to crash their LTV and LTI ratios will be rather low and they’ll be very safe borrowers.

(and if they don’t have a job at that time they probably won’t want to be stuck with a negative equity property purchased before the crash and that they can’t move on from, so buying now thinking at least if I lose my job in a downturn I’ll have a property/mortgage wouldn’t be a great idea)

M.Cribben

Bob24 wrote: »

If they have a large deposit and a job they’ll get a mortgage no problem even during a downturn. If they save for several years and wait for prices to crash their LTV and LTI ratios will be rather low and they’ll be very safe borrowers.

(and if they don’t have a job at that time they probably won’t want to be stuck with a negative equity property purchased before the crash and that they can’t move on from, so buying now thinking at least if I lose my job in a downturn I’ll have a property/mortgage wouldn’t be a great idea)

Where are people supposed to live while saving? They'll end up paying around €200k in 10 years rent, in Dublin anyway.

Another fundamental problem with that plan is a crash is not a certainty.
Property prices rose continuously from around 1985 until 2008. 23 years.
The last time property crashed here, was an effect of the worst recession in the history of the State. Events like that don't come around that often.

I believe the best time to buy is when you have deposit together,can afford the mortgage and have found a property you're happy to live in long term.

"Betting on a crash in 10 years" or any kind of speculation on property prices is a dangerous game and can backfire.

Weepsie

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/northwood-green-northwood-green-northwood-green-santry-avenue-santry-dublin/4176781

Northwood Green. 385 k for a house in Ballymun (no offence, I live in the area myself) basically. If that's not a sign that something's wrong, I don't know what is.

Grand looking house, has the standard new build decor that is all the rage at the moment too, but.....

It fails to show that it's right beside one of the busiest roads in Dublin, so better get used to that noise.

You've got vacant fields either side. Derelict buildings another. A burnt out hotel complex another side and the grimmest apartment block on the opposite corner.

Trucks coming and going all day too just up the road.

If the Metro ever arrives, and if the surrounding area ever gets thoughtful investment, then great, but that's way too much money for the house and the area.

LirW

Weepsie wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/northwood-green-northwood-green-northwood-green-santry-avenue-santry-dublin/4176781

Northwood Green. 385 k for a house in Ballymun (no offence, I live in the area myself) basically. If that's not a sign that something's wrong, I don't know what is.

Grand looking house, has the standard new build decor that is all the rage at the moment too, but.....

It fails to show that it's right beside one of the busiest roads in Dublin, so better get used to that noise.

You've got a vacant fields either side. Derelict buildings another. A burnt out hotel complex another side and the grimmest apartment block on the opposite corner.

Trucks coming and going all day too just up the road.

If the Metro ever arrives, and if the surrounding area ever gets thoughtful investment, then great, but that's way too much money for the house and the area.

Hahahaha they photoshopped the Hotel out!

These prices are shocking, the very location really isn't great, you get all the noise from the M50, the busy junction, the airport and it's right in the middle of Ballymun. Yes the houses might be nice and convenient but come on.

Bob24

M.Cribben wrote: »

Where are people supposed to live while saving? They'll end up paying around €200k in 10 years rent, in Dublin anyway.

Even with our record high rents a young single person definitely doesn’t have to spend 20k per year in rent (and while rent can rise in the future they can also fall). They’ll rent a room in a shared apartment/house for much less than that.

I’m in my mid 30s and been renting in Dublin for the past 10 years (mix of very high and very low rent periods), and I’d say I’ve spent roughly 80-90k in rent during that period and that was enough to live in good places I liked a lot (mix of houses share at the beginning and one bed apartment with my partner afterwards, and getting below market rent for being a problem free long term tenant in the past couple of years)

Also buying a property with a small deposit means paying a lot in interests (with a small deposit monthly repayments will be mostly interests for the first few years) and of course you have to pay LPT, possible management fees, and property maintenance cost which you wouldn’t have as a tenant, so people who stretch themselves to buy actually repay very little capital in the first few years (I just bought recently with a 40% deposit and high monthly repayments to keep the mortgage short enough, and I’m saving 100-150k in interests compared to someone who would have bought the same property with the minimum possible deposit and the longest possible mortgage).


Agreed it is a bit of a gamble to assume there will be a crash though. But it is not a crazy bet at all and it could pay-off a lot. And betting there won’t be a crash wouldn’t be a less risky assumption.

Anyway as I said I would just recommand that a person in their 20s look at the current situation differently from someone in their 30s. But everyone can make their own decision depending on their circumstances and I’m not saying no one should buy at 25.

handlemaster

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I said it before and I'll say it again, people are moving wholesale to the continent
for cheaper / better housing and more favourable tax.

Interest rates of 2% in the Netherlands and the 30% tax ruling make a huge difference ...[/quote]


Give over. If they didnt move with high un employment their not moving now.

ArnieSilvia

handlemaster wrote:

Give over. If they didnt move with high un employment their not moving now.

My empirical evidence of my circle of friends (immigrants) as well as neighbours and what I read here as reported by HR people says otherwise.

For many who came here for money the realisation came that Ireland as we knew it when we first arrived 12-14 years ago, is over. Disposable income is not that great as it used to be, many just survive and wait for kids to finish schools and other small milestones. Better to be poor at home. At least there's family, friends and usually a family home to take over.

Those who came here from abroad recently seem give up within short timeframe, they are different in the way that it's unlikely that they will settle here, it's just a transition into something better career wise back at home. They usually seem to give up on first encounter of Irish health services, scumbags, landlords, commuting, public transport, floods, the beast from the east or other lame excuse for lack of infrastructure.

Of course, this is only my opinion, but have a look at expat forums on Facebook, the sentiment is very very bad, that includes people in senior positions.

Of course, people leave and are replaced but the new ones don't seem to be impressed with Ireland Inc.

Mickiemcfist

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

My empirical evidence of my circle of friends (immigrants) as well as neighbours and what I read here as reported by HR people says otherwise.

For many who came here for money the realisation came that Ireland as we knew it when we first arrived 12-14 years ago, is over. Disposable income is not that great as it used to be, many just survive and wait for kids to finish schools and other small milestones. Better to be poor at home. At least there's family, friends and usually a family home to take over.

Those who came here from abroad recently seem give up within short timeframe, they are different in the way that it's unlikely that they will settle here, it's just a transition into something better career wise back at home. They usually seem to give up on first encounter of Irish health services, scumbags, landlords, commuting, public transport, floods, the beast from the east or other lame excuse for lack of infrastructure.

Of course, this is only my opinion, but have a look at expat forums on Facebook, the sentiment is very very bad, that includes people in senior positions.

Of course, people leave and are replaced but the new ones don't seem to be impressed with Ireland Inc.

All possibly true, but the fact is we have net immigration. I'd rather more left

*That reads like racism which it very much isn't, I mean we aren't building houses at the rate our population is growing, by birth, returning emigrants & migration

Bob24

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

For many who came here for money the realisation came that Ireland as we knew it when we first arrived 12-14 years ago, is over. Disposable income is not that great as it used to be, many just survive and wait for kids to finish schools and other small milestones. Better to be poor at home. At least there's family, friends and usually a family home to take over.

Situations obviously differ depending on each person and I believe what you are saying is true for some people, but I actually have a close group of friends who all moved to Ireland between 2002-2004, and everyone is pretty established here and happy with their situation. No one is thinking of leaving.

No one in the group was really affected by the downturn though so I guess everyone is in a pretty safe career (all IT in private sector or academia).

Bob24

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

*That reads like racism which it very much isn't, I mean we aren't building houses at the rate our population is growing, by birth, returning emigrants & migration

It didn’t actually read that bad in the context of this thread ;-) (not to me anyway, it was clear what you meant is that there aren’t enough houses to accommodate everyone)

MayoSalmon

Mickiemcfist wrote:

*That reads like racism which it very much isn't, I mean we aren't building houses at the rate our population is growing, by birth, returning emigrants & migration

Hardly racism..literally the reason we have Brexit today and Trump in America

Henbabani

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

My empirical evidence of my circle of friends (immigrants) as well as neighbours and what I read here as reported by HR people says otherwise.

For many who came here for money the realisation came that Ireland as we knew it when we first arrived 12-14 years ago, is over. Disposable income is not that great as it used to be, many just survive and wait for kids to finish schools and other small milestones. Better to be poor at home. At least there's family, friends and usually a family home to take over.

Those who came here from abroad recently seem give up within short timeframe, they are different in the way that it's unlikely that they will settle here, it's just a transition into something better career wise back at home. They usually seem to give up on first encounter of Irish health services, scumbags, landlords, commuting, public transport, floods, the beast from the east or other lame excuse for lack of infrastructure.

Of course, this is only my opinion, but have a look at expat forums on Facebook, the sentiment is very very bad, that includes people in senior positions.

Of course, people leave and are replaced but the new ones don't seem to be impressed with Ireland Inc.

i'm on the same group as you and i totally agree with you.
The situation is bad, really bad.
Suddenly my apartment that i pay for it 1,650 pm(2BDR in Carrickmines manor) looking cheap.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

ArnieSilvia

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

............. At least there's family, friends and usually a family home to take over.............

What you are describing is IMO folk who came here for 10/15 years. That time is up so they're heading off.

"people are moving wholesale to the continent " .............. the people moving wholesale are mainly from there or they are country hoppers.

There may well be lots of folk coming to Ireland who work in relatively sh1t jobs realising that €30k/annum in Dublin doesn't leave you with much spare cash, considering what the minimum wage is here that essentially points to them doing very poor research before coming here.

There are very few folk in the 30+ age group who are on decent incomes moving to the continent. The odd IT chap doing so doesn't change that.

Most people who had a few quid in the 00s bought a house here, of those with skills and qualifications (not in the building game) most of them stuck it out here and aren't going to head off now to the continent.

The moving wholesale thing is a poor description, moving wholesale was applicable to the construction folk and 20 somethings heading to Oz.

Carlos Orange

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Hardly racism..literally the reason we have Brexit today and Trump in America

Strange thing to say given that many people say that Brexit and Trumps election were caused by racism.

I do find it strange how little play our population growth gets when it comes to property prices.

draiochtanois

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

A guy recently claimed high skilled IT jobs were paying €35k 3 years ago and €90k now iirc.

There are plenty finance and IT jobs that are far from high skilled, are we classing all of the big 4 staff as high skilled now? And the cons wearing facebook & google folk?

aloooof

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

My empirical evidence of my circle of friends (immigrants) as well as neighbours and what I read here as reported by HR people says otherwise.

That sounds very much like anecdotal evidence, rather than empirical evidence to me.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

Are we classing all of the big 4 staff as high skilled now? And the cons wearing facebook & google folk?

if big 4 trainees arent highly skilled what are you classing as highly skilled? they will comprise the best business graduates in the country and are now commanding 55-70k post qualification.

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

if big 4 trainees arent highly skilled what are you classing as highly skilled? they will comprise the best business graduates in the country and are now commanding 55-70k post qualification.

The sheer volume of them churned out annually suggests that they all can't be highly skilled. No doubt a percentage of them are the best business grads in the country but a fair amount of them would be less than great.

The good ones with 3 years further experience I would class as highly skilled. €55/€70k is a fair range.
I'd class engineers with 10 years post qual decent experience as highly skilled, there are just as many with 10 years p1ss poor experience.
I wouldn't bandy about highly skilled to everyone with a degree who did the big 4 gig.
Similarly, there are feck loads of useless IT folk who are qualified and experienced yet not highly skilled.

there are folks coming out of the Smurfit MBA who aren't highly skilled despite being highly qualified, IMO of course and it's likely a controversial one to many.


My sister did the big 4 thing, herself and many of her peers went on to SFA really. There are lots and lots of €50k/€60k accounting jobs outside of Dublin.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

The sheer volume of them churned out annually suggests that they all can't be highly skilled. No doubt a percentage of them are the best business grads in the country but a fair amount of them would be less than great.

The good ones with 3 years further experience I would class as highly skilled. €55/€70k is a fair range.
I'd class engineers with 10 years post qual decent experience as highly skilled, there are just as many with 10 years p1ss poor experience.
I wouldn't bandy about highly skilled to everyone with a degree who did the big 4 gig.
Similarly, there are feck loads of useless IT folk who are qualified and experienced yet not highly skilled.

there are folks coming out of the Smurfit MBA who aren't highly skilled despite being highly qualified, IMO of course and it's likely a controversial one to many.


My sister did the big 4 thing, herself and many of her peers went on to SFA really. There are lots and lots of €50k/€60k accounting jobs outside of Dublin.

im sure there are, but there are very few ex big 4 doing 50-60k accounting jobs, if they are they are in the wrong profession

M.Cribben

More great news this morning.
Dublin rents up up 12.8pc from March 2017 to March 2018, nationally up 11.5pc

www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/revealed-how-much-rents-have-rocketed-above-celtic-tiger-peak-36872121.html

Dublin alone needs an apartment block of about 200 units to open every week from now until the 2080s.

Prof Lyons said the increases show no signs of moderating.

I don't think the crash everyone is predicting will be along any time soon.