Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

JCX BXC

I don't think I've seen such a promising setup for here in quite a while, I'll keep the optimism at bay again though for a while.

kod87

JCX BXC wrote: »

I don't think I've seen such a promising setup for here in quite a while, I'll keep the optimism at bay again though for a while.

Where is here? north or north west coastal region I assume. It does look pretty good for those areas, especially the high ground

JCX BXC

kod87 wrote: »

Where is here? north or north west coastal region I assume. It does look pretty good for those areas, especially the high ground

West Clare, so even in such a nice set up we can still get sleet and cold rain!

George Sunsnow

kod87 wrote: »

Where is here? north or north west coastal region I assume. It does look pretty good for those areas, especially the high ground

Your template should be what happened in your area a few years ago when much of the west and southwest got a white Xmas
Not sure which year it was (I’m getting old) but it could have been in the mid 2000’s?

pilly

George Sunsnow wrote:

Your template should be what happened in your area a few years ago when much of the west and southwest got a white Xmas Not sure which year it was (I’m getting old) but it could have been in the mid 2000’s?

2010?

George Sunsnow

pilly wrote: »

2010?

No

There was a western white Xmas before 2010 that I’m thinking of
What’s coming will be no 2010
Not yet anyway
Couldn’t rule out one later in the winter

vid36

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Your template should be what happened in your area a few years ago when much of the west and southwest got a white Xmas
Not sure which year it was (I’m getting old) but it could have been in the mid 2000’s?

It was 2004

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

After heavy rain crosses the country Wednesday the fun begins from Wednesday night up to next Saturday with polar air been pulled down over the country and showers of sleet and snow in most areas particularly Ulster, Connaucht, and West Munster other areas not ruled out either. So it will be interesting to see if areas that didn't get any snow durning the last cold snap will see some from Thursday onwards.

Gaoth Laidir

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Nice shortwave feature showing up on the latest GFS for early FRi running down the E of the country.That could have an influence on precipitation levels.

That's the one I was referring to. It's part of Wednesday's low that breaks off and pivots back down, bringing part of the warm seclusion with it. That could be the fly in the ointment regarding snow lines.

Rebelbrowser

George Sunsnow wrote: »

No

There was a western white Xmas before 2010 that I’m thinking of
What’s coming will be no 2010
Not yet anyway
Couldn’t rule out one later in the winter

it was 2004

BLIZZARD7

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That's the one I was referring to. It's part of Wednesday's low that breaks off and pivots back down, bringing part of the warm seclusion with it. That could be the fly in the ointment regarding snow lines.

Indeed there is some warmer air wrapped in there, could be a few hours of mixed precipitation before proper snow by midday friday based on these charts. Dew points look just about okay all the way through though. Anywhere inland would be fine I think, coastal areas could do with the feature tracking about 50-80km further east. All going to change a lot between now and then anyway but definitely something to keep an eye on.

yellowlabrador

vid36 wrote: »

It was 2004

xmas day West Cork

Gonzo

The BBC farming forecast has it turning very mild for Wednesday with alot of rain, then much colder following with showers mostly concentrated over Northern Ireland, western Scotland, western UK and skirting the eastern fringes of England. They also showed wintry showers over western parts of Ireland. They mentioned milder conditions from late Saturday into Sunday.

ronnie3585

snowstorm445

ronnie3585 wrote: »

The Cork snow shield looks like it’ll be ruptured anyway. :P

pad199207

ronnie3585 wrote: »

That’s a real messy picture to be honest.

Larbre34

Beware the modification. Marginals calls for most except higher ground, and we know what marginal means in Ireland? Its always tails you loose....

BLIZZARD7

One to watch later on in weekend/Monday is for an undercutting slider low- I.e potential snowstorm for a lucky location, 12z GFS ensembles showing lots of support for this idea. Expect it to appear and disappear intermittently on the op run til later in the week.

All eyes on this evenings ECM for now...

munsterlegend

Larbre34 wrote: »

Beware the modification. Marginals calls for most except higher ground, and we know what marginal means in Ireland? Its always tails you loose....

Always marginal for lower levels and those on the coast. Anyway quietly confident we'll see some white gold here in north cork at some stage between Thursday and Saturday.

Jobs OXO

Will this be anything like the cold spell in 2010?

Gonzo

Jobs OXO wrote: »

Will this be anything like the cold spell in 2010?

not even close. Much closer to last week's cold spell than a 2010 event.
This is an Atlantic/northerly cold spell, unlike 2010 which was a proper beast from the east.

Donegal Storm

2010 actually was a northerly, just a far more potent one direct from the Arctic

munsterlegend

Gonzo wrote: »

not even close. Much closer to last week's cold spell than a 2010 event.
This is an Atlantic/northerly cold spell, unlike 2010 which was a proper beast from the east.

Ah on paper much paper than last weeks for snow chances anyway? Of course it could all go pear shaped but met eireann are predicting snow as well for later in the week.

Meteorite58

Must keep an eye on that shortwave on Thurs, packing quite a punch across Northern counties on the latest 12Z ARPEGE, a bit out yet so bound to change in track and intensity somewhat. Can see various warnings coming up from Weds on.

George Sunsnow

Donegal Storm wrote: »

2010 actually was a northerly, just a far more potent one direct from the Arctic

No
The proper cold,heaviest snow creating cold at the end of November and Xmas week and at times in between would have been from the Northeast ie artic continental,lower dew points deeper cold less Atlantic influence

Here’s what started it all
A true artic northeaster
See attached

Gonzo

I remember 2010 started off as a typical north-west event with snow in Donegal, Mayo, Galway and Northern Ireland, it didn't take long for it to change to a more easterly sourced event, then the fun and games began, we really ended up with 2 major snow events with a brief milder section between both events.

What is happening next week so far looks like a 2 to 3 day event from the north-west/north with so far no signs of any easterly component. While it's still too far away to be talking about where will get snow and how much, the east of the country will need some sort of polar low or organised disturbance for this event to produce worthwhile snowfall. Perhaps by Wednesday a much clearer picture will emerge about the prospects of snow.

The one thing that's more or less guaranteed at this stage is much lower temperatures than what we currently have and some severe frosts.

hatrickpatrick

I find both of those charts incredibly upsetting given that in this year's case, the PV looks to have gotten its act together somewhat over the last few runs

Donegal Storm

Yeah the first outbreak in November was sourced from Scandinavia, we had snow from the north in Donegal around the 25th but it quickly changed to a NE'erly and stayed that way all week. The airmass in mid December was sourced from a northerly though, once the airmass was in place we had easterly winds but they were very light and more a case of an already cold airmass passing over deep snowfields


Anyway, 12z ECMWF is further watered down and looking increasingly like a bog standard NW'erly, still a 24-36 hour window for snow in Ulster & north Connacht but just the usual slushy mess that'll be gone in 24 hours

Larbre34

munsterlegend wrote: »

Ah on paper much paper than last weeks for snow chances anyway? Of course it could all go pear shaped but met eireann are predicting snow as well for later in the week.

Not much they're not. Frost and ice at night the dominant warning with daytime highs of 3 to 6C and showers more wintry on the upland areas in the north and west before temps recovering on Saturday. Nothing in this period for me but a typical few days Irish winter, cooler and drier alternating with milder and damper for the forseeable...

sdanseo

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Anyway, 12z ECMWF is further watered down and looking increasingly like a bog standard NW'erly, still a 24-36 hour window for snow in Ulster & north Connacht but just the usual slushy mess that'll be gone in 24 hours

Go a day further on and 850hPa temps look good. 528dm line just a little elusive.

TheRiverman

Don't worry,Jean says there will be a warm front by Saturday

Donegal Storm

sdanseo wrote: »

Go a day further on and 850hPa temps look good. 528dm line just a little elusive.

The airmass is more stable with higher heights by that stage though so there won't be much shower activity away from the north coast, Thursday night will probably be the best chance for snow

fraxinus1

Met Eireann forecast hardly worth getting excited about. Cold winds and wintry showers for the northwest and west on high ground. It is December. Hardly out of the ordinary. Clutching at straws.

George Sunsnow

Last post from me on the 2010 comparison
Xmas week’s flow was definitely Artic continental again in source not from the Atlantic influenced due north
It delivered the feet of snow in parts of the east ,a good foot fell on the 22nd alone in Arklow
On the 24th I measured just shy of 18 inches on my farm 2 miles from the Irish Sea
It was of courses helped by all the snow already in situ over Britain
Artic continental as far as the snow drug goes is the main line imho
Pity it’s so rare

See attached

thedeere

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Met Eireann forecast hardly worth getting excited about. Cold winds and wintry showers for the northwest and west on high ground. It is December. Hardly out of the ordinary. Clutching at straws.

It’s game over ball burst. [ Mod Snip]

Mod Note: Unacceptable piece of post snipped. Keep on topic.

MJohnston

I think we might see Storm Caroline this Thursday...depends on the track of that wind in the shortwave feature Meteorite mentioned.

As an aside, do the UKMO spell out their warning level triggers like Met Eireann do? I'd imagine it must be a lot more difficult for them, where the kind of snowfall that would occur in the Scottish highlands very regularly would cause complete chaos in the south of England.

Elmer Blooker

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Met Eireann forecast hardly worth getting excited about. Cold winds and wintry showers for the northwest and west on high ground. It is December. Hardly out of the ordinary. Clutching at straws.

I would have to agree with this. There isn't any northern blocking worth talking about and the inevitable outcome will be a two or three day cold snap.

pauldry

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I would have to agree with this. There isn't any northern blocking worth talking about and the inevitable outcome will be a two or three day cold snap.

Yes indeed. Think Met Eireann have it spot on from looking at charts

Rebelbrowser

Forecast on rte just now generally in line with this thread I would have thought. Certainly a reasonable chance of snow still, Connaught / Ulster / West Munster best positioned.

JCX BXC

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Met Eireann forecast hardly worth getting excited about. Cold winds and wintry showers for the northwest and west on high ground. It is December. Hardly out of the ordinary. Clutching at straws.

No mention of high ground, only mentions of showers of Sleet, Snow and Hail (they don't even mention rain).

This isn't a 2010 event (trust me, if it was this thread would be turning 100 pages at the moment), but it's not as poor as you're making it out to be, did you even pay attention to the Met Eireann forecast?

Gonzo

BBC's forecast today is also very similar to Met Eireann's. displaying a repeat of the cold spell we had last week, just that it might be a slight bit of a colder one.

sjb25

These threads are great craic you get the knowledgeable posters stating what they THINK and only that

Then you get the people reading as far as SNOW and not the rest and getting out the snow boots

Then you get the posters coming in saying everyone is WRONG and nothing will happen will just be cold

all great craic always worth a visit to the weather forum

MJohnston

sjb25 wrote: »

These threads are great craic you get the knowledgeable posters stating what they THINK and only that you get the people reading as far as SNOW and not the rest and getting out the snow boots

Then you get the posters coming in saying everyone is WRONG and nothing will happen will just be cold

all great craic always worth a visit to the weather forum

That's one forecast that's always right

BLIZZARD7

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Forecast on rte just now generally in line with this thread I would have thought. Certainly a reasonable chance of snow still, Connaught / Ulster / West Munster best positioned.

This pretty much, will require some luck for anything of note on lower ground in the east between now and Saturday. Other areas will see some decent falls I think. The question is whether or not mesoscale features pop up to deliver to other areas.

JanuarySnowstor

Seems to be a well organised trough crossing down over country on Thursday nightI

pauldry

Think my kids were 3 the last time there was enough snow to build a snowman properly in Sligo town.

I wait with baited breath to see if this weeks wintry showers will result in a hailman a sleetman or a snowman......or indeed a rainman.

snowstorm445

GFS Control run sends a slider south of Ireland towards Sunday/Monday bringing streamers to the East Coast! :eek:

George Sunsnow

Yeah pub run is on steroids

BLIZZARD7

Friday morning rush hour could be fun in the north, north west and east -

BLIZZARD7

Here's the possible slider/Irish Sea streamer scenario from the control run later on -