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Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

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24567…37

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    #32
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    One thing to note is that although the 850 temperatures on Friday (around -9 °C) are colder than those on Thursday (-7ish), they are around 100 metres higher up, so in reality there is no real difference in the vertical profile. Friday would not be colder than Thursday.


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    #33
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,500 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Hi all,

    Can we at least try to keep regional biases in check. :P Just because Dublin may (or may not, we don't have that full picture yet) avoid the worst of the cold snap in terms of snow does not mean others will have any less,

    I'm a Dub and would love to see snow in my location but delighted to see all the pics and news from the locations that do get snowfall.

    Not much has really changed in the forecast from the OP through today. Maybe a little less likely to see back edge snow from the front in to Thursday (excepting high ground of course).

    Thursday night, Friday and in to Saturday the snow showers still piling in to the north and northwest - also west and southwest coasts. Strong enough breeze, some of these will get well inland.

    Temperatures, no change, really struggling from Wednesday night.

    No point in speculating further than Saturday - every chance the cold period could continue allbeit in a different way - rain trying to approach from the northwest coming up against the colder airmass could turn to snow for some. Not enough detail to go in to that yet.

    More or less on track.


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    #34
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,888 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Potent toppler sums it up really.
    A bit like the one a few days ago but a fraction colder.
    Some snow for high ground in North and West.


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    #35
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,500 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    A fraction colder? Nothing has changed with the forecast in the OP. Snow will not be confined to high ground nor will it be confined to the north and west. It's what happens from Saturday that should be the focus of speculation. Thursday, Friday pretty much nailed.


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    #36
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Some snow depth charts from this mornings ECM - *Obviously will be subject to lots of change*

    Friday -

    435090.png

    Sunday -

    435091.png


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    #37
    server down
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭server down


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    A fraction colder? Nothing has changed with the forecast in the OP. Snow will not be confined to high ground nor will it be confined to the north and west. It's what happens from Saturday that should be the focus of speculation. Thursday, Friday pretty much nailed.

    You putting your reputation on that? Snow on lower ground in the east and south east on Thursday/Friday?


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    #38
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    John Eagleton ‘the eagle’ on radio one at 755am this morning said heavy rain all day wenesday which may turn to snow wenesday night into Thursday as northerly winds dig in
    Thereafter heavy wintry showers in ulster north leinster the west and southwest

    The set up for wenesday onwards has the capability to bring snow wherever the front is on wenesday night/Thursday
    After that snow showers could get into Dublin but especially Meath Louth Ulster Connaught and west Munster

    Whether it’s s toppler remains to be seen


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    #39
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    server down wrote: »
    You putting your reputation on that? Snow on lower ground in the east and south east on Thursday/Friday?

    A bit over the top? Reputation? It's an online forum not like he is representing met eireann!

    Anyway snow in Ireland is always in the balance up to the last minute. Usually what can go wrong does but Thursday to Sunday will certainly be cold and seasonal.


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    #40
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,892 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Hard to believe any of this coming to fruition but I hope Im wrong.

    As regards the snow depth charts does hail count as snow depth coz thats likely what Sligo town will get. Inland locations fair enough but hail isnt snow.

    Id say Thursday and Friday we will get something Wintry just what


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    #41
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I think it will be a toppler. However a potent two day toppler is fine by me if it leads to heavy snow showers piling into the north west on a stiff breeze, that means places further inland will get them too. I just hope this pattern of milder interludes, alternating with colder north westerly and and northerly air masses, continues till the end of the month.


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    #42
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Thursday, Friday pretty much nailed.

    It's far from nailed. There's still significant variation in the models on the evolution of that low and the position of the ridge over Ireland. Again it looks like we may lie just a few hundred km too west, but we'll see. The ECM shows a shortwave feature dragging down higher theta values around the west of the low, which would reduce the cold, whereas the GFS again shows the coldest solution. It's still all to play for.


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    #43
    Xenji
    Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Coming back today from 5 days of up to -7C and snow, so hoping this pans out for the west later in the week, not looking forward to landing in the mildness later.


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    #44
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,246 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Typical again, Cork and Waterford seem to be left out in the models :-(


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    #45
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Don’t be expecting a 2010
    Expect heavy wintry showers in the areas outlined which will include snow
    Where snow falls heavily it will settle

    Not possible to be sure what comes after next weekend this far out


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    #46
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    pauldry wrote: »

    As regards the snow depth charts does hail count as snow depth

    1o1q6vO.gif


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    #47
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    A fraction colder? Nothing has changed with the forecast in the OP. Snow will not be confined to high ground nor will it be confined to the north and west. It's what happens from Saturday that should be the focus of speculation. Thursday, Friday pretty much nailed.

    You can't call something 6 days away nailed on :rolleyes:

    This mornings ECMWF has 850hPa temps between -6 and -8C, roughly the same as what we've had a couple of times already recently. It's supported by colder air aloft this time but still every chance it'll be watered down in the coming days and we end up with the usual higher ground NW event.


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    #48
    server down
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭server down


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    A bit over the top? Reputation? It's an online forum not like he is representing met eireann!

    Anyway snow in Ireland is always in the balance up to the last minute. Usually what can go wrong does but Thursday to Sunday will certainly be cold and seasonal.

    He’s fairly certain. And obviously he has an online reputation.


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    #49
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,511 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    leahyl wrote: »
    Typical again, Cork and Waterford seem to be left out in the models :-(

    Well the shield was fixed after the last time.


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    #50
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,839 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Nice shortwave feature showing up on the latest GFS for early FRi running down the E of the country.That could have an influence on precipitation levels.
    An evolving situation with the picture becoming clearer as we go on. The shape, track intensity of the system moving in over Ireland and the following N'ly airflow and influence of the other bodies of air will all be tweaked in the coming days. But that's the enjoyment of it for me, focusing in on the atmospheric minutiae and observing its interactions. It is great getting everybody's input, knowledge and experience for me as it is a great opportunity for learning.

    tempresult_kub0.gif

    tempresult_nds9.gif


    Px0GMB7.gif?1


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    #51
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    It's Mrs Frog and the tadpoles I feel most sorry for.

    It is they that must suffer much of the fallout from Kermit's reckless weather forecasts.


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    #52
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I don't think I've seen such a promising setup for here in quite a while, I'll keep the optimism at bay again though for a while.


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    #53
    kod87
    Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭kod87


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    I don't think I've seen such a promising setup for here in quite a while, I'll keep the optimism at bay again though for a while.

    Where is here? north or north west coastal region I assume. It does look pretty good for those areas, especially the high ground


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    #54
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    kod87 wrote: »
    Where is here? north or north west coastal region I assume. It does look pretty good for those areas, especially the high ground

    West Clare, so even in such a nice set up we can still get sleet and cold rain!


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    #55
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    kod87 wrote: »
    Where is here? north or north west coastal region I assume. It does look pretty good for those areas, especially the high ground
    Your template should be what happened in your area a few years ago when much of the west and southwest got a white Xmas
    Not sure which year it was (I’m getting old) but it could have been in the mid 2000’s?


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    #56
    pilly
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,005 ✭✭✭pilly


    George Sunsnow wrote:
    Your template should be what happened in your area a few years ago when much of the west and southwest got a white Xmas Not sure which year it was (I’m getting old) but it could have been in the mid 2000’s?


    2010?


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    #57
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    pilly wrote: »
    2010?

    No

    There was a western white Xmas before 2010 that I’m thinking of
    What’s coming will be no 2010
    Not yet anyway
    Couldn’t rule out one later in the winter


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    #58
    vid36
    Registered Users Posts: 564 ✭✭✭vid36


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Your template should be what happened in your area a few years ago when much of the west and southwest got a white Xmas
    Not sure which year it was (I’m getting old) but it could have been in the mid 2000’s?

    It was 2004


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    #59
    h7nlrp2v0g5u48
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭h7nlrp2v0g5u48


    After heavy rain crosses the country Wednesday the fun begins from Wednesday night up to next Saturday with polar air been pulled down over the country and showers of sleet and snow in most areas particularly Ulster, Connaucht, and West Munster other areas not ruled out either. So it will be interesting to see if areas that didn't get any snow durning the last cold snap will see some from Thursday onwards.


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    #60
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Nice shortwave feature showing up on the latest GFS for early FRi running down the E of the country.That could have an influence on precipitation levels.

    That's the one I was referring to. It's part of Wednesday's low that breaks off and pivots back down, bringing part of the warm seclusion with it. That could be the fly in the ointment regarding snow lines.


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    #61
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    No

    There was a western white Xmas before 2010 that I’m thinking of
    What’s coming will be no 2010
    Not yet anyway
    Couldn’t rule out one later in the winter

    it was 2004


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