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Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

  • 02-12-2017 5:24am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    This is a developing situation that could prove disruptive.

    Currently the models are more than flirting with a much colder regime for Ireland and the real risk of some prolonged snowfall can not be ruled out.

    As a northerly or north-northeasterly is the likely outcome it is northern areas that will take the brunt.

    However there are two things in particular to watch.

    On Wednesday a period of rain and strong winds will sweep up from the southwest. Initially it will be pleasantly mild and wet. However during Wednesday night and for Thursday as really cold air digs in from the north there is a real prospect this could turn to snow temporarily as temperatures plunge rapidly nationwide.

    This is not nailed. What's maybe more certain is that after that bitterly cold air becomes entrenched and heavy snow showers follow - with another real prospect of troughs and polar low type features through Thursday night and Friday that would enhance snowfall for a good chunk of the country and lead to disruption.

    Friday looks very cold indeed. Temperatures may struggle above freezing and may remain below over snow covered ground.

    Specifics can't be nailed yet. Definitely be aware and keep an eye on forecasts.

    It could be a 48 to 60 hour "event" but every chance it could go beyond that but lets keep this within the realm of the more realistic time frame. This applies until Friday night, but we will soon be able to elaborate further and in much more detail.

    There is good enough cross model agreement.

    More anon!


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭ sparrowcar


    There ain't no party like a Kermit club party....

    Bring on the white gold :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭ kod87


    I want snow as much as anyone but this thread is a bit optimistic and over the top IMO. There is potential there but it certainly didn't need its own thread at this stage but we shall see


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    That is an impressive change in airmass in 24 hours!

    ECM0-120.GIF?02-12

    ECM0-144.GIF?02-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Looks like a northerly toppler to me with max 36 hour event


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭ sparrowcar


    kod87 wrote: »
    I want snow as much as anyone but this thread is a bit optimistic and over the top IMO. There is potential there but it certainly didn't need its own thread at this stage but we shall see

    "Turning much colder, snow likely" is over the top now? How exactly?

    If it said "We're all going to freeze to death next week and huge snow drifts will bring the country to a standstill" then that would be over the top.

    It's just an aknowlegement of unusual weather ahead that's all, take a deep breath.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭ kod87


    sparrowcar wrote: »
    "Turning much colder, snow likely" is over the top now? How exactly?

    If it said "We're all going to freeze to death next week and huge snow drifts will bring the country to a standstill" then that would be over the top.

    It's just an aknowlegement of unusual weather ahead that's all, take a deep breath.

    I was thinking more this
    "What's maybe more certain is that after that bitterly cold air becomes entrenched and heavy snow showers follow - with another real prospect of troughs and polar low type features through Thursday night and Friday that would enhance snowfall for a good chunk of the country and lead to disruption.

    Friday looks very cold indeed. Temperatures may struggle above freezing and may remain below over snow covered ground.''


    Most of that is over the top fantasy that reflects what he wants to happen not whats actually indicated.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    kod87 wrote: »
    I was thinking more this
    "What's maybe more certain is that after that bitterly cold air becomes entrenched and heavy snow showers follow - with another real prospect of troughs and polar low type features through Thursday night and Friday that would enhance snowfall for a good chunk of the country and lead to disruption.

    Friday looks very cold indeed. Temperatures may struggle above freezing and may remain below over snow covered ground.''


    Most of that is over the top fantasy that reflects what he wants to happen not whats actually indicated.


    I think that's a bit unfair. It is, to all intents and purposes, scientific analysis and personal intuition I am working off.

    Could be wrong of course. I don't think it will be that wrong to be honest.

    But let's see. Glad to take any criticism if it does not work out. Have done before.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 force eleven


    Gfs was showing the apocalyptic storm in the North Sea by next weekend last night. Looked way over blown, compared to the more sober ECM. Certainly looks like we will get a northerly next weekend, but it looks transient and how potent is undetermined just yet. I am only about 15% convinced of a disruptive spell of weather next weekend, and not just because its the firms Christmas party on Saturday...;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,201 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Though it's still well out in FI, the 00Z ECM is showing -9°C 850s briefly over Ireland, so that's a good start. I don't see much potential for disruption, though, as the upper trough is not as severe as the GFS, and is very limited on the GEM. 700 and 500 hPa temperatures are way colder on the GFS than the others, so the potential for deep convection and polar lows is of course exaggerated in that model. But as the whole airmass looks like originating over Greenland and moving quickly southeastwards it should give a lower snowline than last week.

    But it's still only way out in FI.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    Though it's still well out in FI, the 00Z ECM is showing -9°C 850s briefly over Ireland, so that's a good start. I don't see much potential for disruption, though, as the upper trough is not as severe than the GFS, and is very limited on the GEM. 700 and 500 hPa temperatures are way colder on the GFS than the others, so the potential for deep convection and polar lows is of course exaggerated in that model. But as the whole airmass looks like originating over Greenland and moving quickly southeastwards it should give a lower snowline than last week.

    But it's still only way out in FI.

    Gaoth Laidir always the voice of reason on these threads. The only real gripe i would have about the thread is its title. When is snow ever Likely in Ireland especially 5 or so days away. Respect to Kermit for putting it out there and of course most would be hoping for some sort of event but a long way off yet.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,230 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    At this time of year I dont get out of bed for anything progged at more than +36 hours, and ye shouldnt either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    The 06z run really ups the ante with widespread snow falling Thurs/Fri


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,302 ✭✭✭ sjb25


    The 06z run really ups the ante with widespread snow falling Thurs/Fri

    I no it most likely will all change but feck it


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,210 ✭✭✭ dexter647


    Personally I think you have jinxed it Kermit as it's still a long way off....fingers crossed though:)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pistolpetes11


    Though it's still well out in FI, the 00Z ECM is showing -9°C 850s briefly over Ireland, so that's a good start. I don't see much potential for disruption, though, as the upper trough is not as severe as the GFS, and is very limited on the GEM. 700 and 500 hPa temperatures are way colder on the GFS than the others, so the potential for deep convection and polar lows is of course exaggerated in that model. But as the whole airmass looks like originating over Greenland and moving quickly southeastwards it should give a lower snowline than last week.

    But it's still only way out in FI.

    When you tell me its going to be an event I will happily get on board , until then its all FI for me but lovely charts to look at ,

    I do hope KDF is correct as the the two smallies have never really experienced a snow event and would love it for them , Im only slightly interested in it ........... yeah right :P:P:P:P:P


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    be great if this happens but it's all such a long way off. The charts can change 20+ times between now and Thursday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    If I never looked at any charts of we were living in the 1940s id be saying

    Jaysis this past few weeks has been colder than recent late Autumn Winters
    Surely something cold is in the pipeline soon .

    Id say wel definitely get cold with wintry showers but it is quite possible we will get snowfall in december this year in my opinion.

    The mild muck of other years just isnt there

    E.g last year it was 11 to 13c many many days

    So far this year we are struggling to reach double figures.

    Cue mildest weather on record


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,836 ✭✭✭✭ Rock Lesnar


    Kermit starts a snow thread, its definitely and officially winter on the boards weather forum now ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,201 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    The ECM has numerous light showers feeding in from the northwest later next week, with a rain/snow mix (green/orange), but activity is mostly along Atlantic regions, limited elsewhere. They could produce some brief flurries over land as they die out further east but totals look small at the moment.

    And it's still way out in FI...

    435024.PNG

    Radar
    435023.PNG


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    right now the charts are showing very cold conditions lasting from next Thursday afternoon to the following Tuesday. If the charts do work out, next Friday has the potential to be the coldest day since December 2010, certainly far colder than the recent cold spell. Far too early to tell about where snow will fall and if snow will fall.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 502 ✭✭✭ Wine Goddess


    I know, I know it's FI, and the usual arguments about it being too early to tell, which I agree with, but for me, half the fun of being on this brilliant forum is to see the FI charts and get excited!
    Yes 120+ is too soon to tell.
    Yes the low could move away.
    Yes the high could break down.
    Yes the 500 hPa could get warmer.
    Yes it could be a northeasterly rather than an easterly.
    But, it's fun, it's FI, it's great to follow it and hope.
    I really enjoy reading charts, seeing people get excited about the possibility of snow, it's what makes this forum so great.
    Let us have our dreams, unlikely though they may be!
    .


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Surprisingly good ensemble agreement right out to 8 days

    graphe_ens3_dof5.gif



    Strong winds in these setups usually mean hail showers well inland in the NW though and showers will be fast moving so I wouldn't expect much, if any snow accumulation for most of us, 850hPa temps are nearly always a couple of degrees warmer on the day as well. Fermanagh, Cavan Tyrone etc likely get plenty of snow though, especially if the 6z GFS comes close to verifying

    Interesting charts though, would love to be on the Donegal coast for some big thundery hail squalls


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    I think the predicted charts are definitely out of the FI range!

    gfs-0-120.png?6

    The cold rush begins at T120 on the latest GFS. However, as SU alludes to - the models have toned down the intensity of the low pressure and whilst previous runs showed the potential for the cold to undercut the precipitation bands- the latest output does not. This results in a very cold arctic Northwesterly giving hail/sleet/snow showers to areas exposed, but very little if any precip likely in the east.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,201 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Meanwhile the ICON is throwing a spanner in the works and is showing a deepining low tracking southeastwards right over Ireland on Thursday. This would divert the coldest air westwards and increase its sea track, so not good for snow.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Thurs / Fri / Sat looking extremely cold especially Fri. Strong enough wind expected also bringing the windchill very much into effect

    150-778UK_qun8.GIF

    132-7UK_vqd9.GIF

    ECU0-144_wrz8.GIF

    150-290UK_odg9.GIF


    Just for sport.

    150-780UK_mlu0.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    It’s going to be one of those events where everything will have to come together. A very rare thing to happen in this country.

    What can go wrong will go wrong.

    Charts are encouraging though because they do show parameters conducive to snow for many areas but it’s still a good few days away.

    GFS and UKMO pretty much in agreement on this. I have a feeling the ECM will be in agreement too.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking so cold next Fri

    UN144-21_agc8.GIF

    UW144-7_wwf3.GIF

    UW144-6_tfg9.GIF


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Strong Jet Fri / Sat with Ireland in a stiff N'ly airflow

    gfs-5-150_kzu2.png

    150-289UK_gvg6.GIF

    I can feel the cold from here !

    ibIKlGX.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Bring it on! This low cloud and non descript weather may be ok for shoppers but very boring otherwise!!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,113 ✭✭✭✭ joujoujou


    Yeah, bring it on! :D

    But wait until I've winter tyres put on the right place. :p


This discussion has been closed.
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