Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Pa ElGrande

Bonzo Delaney wrote: »

How far behind live is nullschool.net

3 hours.

Cantona's Collars

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After transition this won't be lacking for a warm sector, temperatures on the north coast of Spain are generally at or above 30 C. (and all that is feeding directly into the developing expanding circulation).

The nowcasting portion of this event is going to be tremendously interesting, I think.

I wonder how much power these high temps around Spain will feed into Ophelia? Will we see less of a degradation of it as a hurricane than expected as it moves North?

spookwoman

Don't think I've ever seen a chart like this before on met.ie

Kermit.de.frog

They can't even fit '100' on the arrows.

Donegal Storm

spookwoman wrote: »

Don't think I've ever seen a chart like this before on met.ie

We've had similar strength wind as that plenty of times, just that its normally in more sparsely populated coastal Donegal and Mayo in mid winter


12z GFS just rolling out and largely as we were, a slight downgrade in winds with max gusts between 140-150kph and around 110 to 130kph gusts more generally

M.T. Cranium

The GFS is also a bit faster than previously, some timing estimates may need to be moved up 1-2 hours.

munsterlegend

Are we in a nowcast situation as of now? I remember in Darwin the sting jet just caused all sorts of problems and mayhem at the last minute.

Gaoth Laidir

15Z wind analysis, showing max winds around Ophelia now down to 71 knots (about 65 in old money).

lfc200

Seems from looking at the tracking that it will hit Ireland earlier than previously thought?

Gaoth Laidir

I don't think there's much chance of a sting jet tomorrow as the jet will be fairly weak throughout but we'll see later.

DOCARCH

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

KCAccidental

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

that's momentum based though isn't it? not reliable apparently.

Rougies

KCAccidental wrote: »

that's momentum based though isn't it? not reliable apparently.

No, that's real satellite imagery, as reliable as it gets!

Discodog

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

Seems to be just a straight line projection

DOCARCH

KCAccidental wrote: »

that's momentum based though isn't it? not reliable apparently.

That's real time/satellite imagery....not projection.

It's due north (in my opinion) you'd expect/need to be seeing, at this stage, if it is to impact the south coast tomorrow morning.

Reckless Abandonment

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

Been watching that too. God knows where it will end up.

giggsirish

MeteoAlarm have decided that none of this exists.(Obviously I know it does) Where do they get their data from?

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

DOCARCH

Discodog wrote: »

Seems to be just a straight line projection

Not a projection....

Have been watching that all day and there has been no significant northward turn.

4pm image. Its moved a fair bit since early morning imagery.

Middle Man

giggsirish wrote: »

MeteoAlarm have decided that none of this exists. Where do they get their data from?

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

The warning isn't in operation yet, so AFAIK it doesn't appear on meteoalarm.eu as of now.

Meteorite58

Aperge 12Z Looks like arriving a lot earlier ( unless DOCARACH has frightened it off :pac: )

Mean




Gust

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

4pm image. Its moved a fair bit since early morning imagery.

Yes, it has (moved a fair bit), but it has had the same trajectory all day....with no major northward movement (as far as I can see?).

Discodog

giggsirish wrote: »

MeteoAlarm have decided that none of this exists.(Obviously I know it does) Where do they get their data from?

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

It reads like it's up to each country to tell them of any warnings

Meteorite58

The full AROME 12Z out now



Gust

spookwoman

is there an eye forming? latest sat images https://weather.us/satellite/131-w-426-n/satellite-hd-5min.html

DOCARCH

Below is what I posted early this morning....

DOCARCH wrote: »

I suppose in the back of my head I am thinking of Irma....was supposed to head up the east coast of Florida and ended up the west coast of Florida at the last minute.

Ophelia is a Cat 3 'major' hurricane at the moment. I don't think it was forecast/expected to be that strong?

That, in my opinion, may effect the forecast track? The longer it remains a 'major' hurricane, the more the chance there is of it going wherever it pleases or resisting interaction with the jet stream.

As far as I am aware Ophelia was forecast to be weaker at this stage and the weaker hurricane was to be 'dragged' to Ireland by interaction with the jet stream.

Note: The above is not based on any science or forecast model! Just my own theory/hunch!

....other than looking at models (which are models)....nothing I have seen during the day has convinced me otherwise/that my own theory/hunch above is completely wrong!

Reckless Abandonment

spookwoman wrote: »

is there an eye forming? latest sat images https://weather.us/satellite/131-w-426-n/satellite-hd-5min.html

No. She's starting to unwrap herself.

Discodog

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Aperge 12Z Looks like arriving a lot earlier ( unless DOCARACH has frightened it off :pac: )

Has it ? I seem to have always had the eye arriving near Galway late afternoon. I even thought about trying to get some outdoor work done in the morning

Missymoohaa

DOCARCH wrote:

....other than looking at models (which are models)....nothing I have seen during the day has convinced me otherwise/that my own theory/hunch above is completely wrong!

So what are you saying.... We probably won't get hit by ophelia at all? You're really confusing me.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yes, it has (moved a fair bit), but it has had the same trajectory all day....with no major northward movement (as far as I can see?).

Giving a (very) rough guess, just going by still images, I'd say its tracked N/NE by about 150 miles between 10am and 4 pm.