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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Pa ElGrande

Bonzo Delaney wrote: »

How far behind live is nullschool.net

3 hours.

Cantona's Collars

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After transition this won't be lacking for a warm sector, temperatures on the north coast of Spain are generally at or above 30 C. (and all that is feeding directly into the developing expanding circulation).

The nowcasting portion of this event is going to be tremendously interesting, I think.

I wonder how much power these high temps around Spain will feed into Ophelia? Will we see less of a degradation of it as a hurricane than expected as it moves North?

spookwoman

Don't think I've ever seen a chart like this before on met.ie

Kermit.de.frog

They can't even fit '100' on the arrows.

Donegal Storm

spookwoman wrote: »

Don't think I've ever seen a chart like this before on met.ie

We've had similar strength wind as that plenty of times, just that its normally in more sparsely populated coastal Donegal and Mayo in mid winter

12z GFS just rolling out and largely as we were, a slight downgrade in winds with max gusts between 140-150kph and around 110 to 130kph gusts more generally

M.T. Cranium

The GFS is also a bit faster than previously, some timing estimates may need to be moved up 1-2 hours.

munsterlegend

Are we in a nowcast situation as of now? I remember in Darwin the sting jet just caused all sorts of problems and mayhem at the last minute.

Gaoth Laidir

15Z wind analysis, showing max winds around Ophelia now down to 71 knots (about 65 in old money).

lfc200

Seems from looking at the tracking that it will hit Ireland earlier than previously thought?

Gaoth Laidir

I don't think there's much chance of a sting jet tomorrow as the jet will be fairly weak throughout but we'll see later.

DOCARCH

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

KCAccidental

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

that's momentum based though isn't it? not reliable apparently.

Rougies

KCAccidental wrote: »

that's momentum based though isn't it? not reliable apparently.

No, that's real satellite imagery, as reliable as it gets!

Discodog

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

Seems to be just a straight line projection

DOCARCH

KCAccidental wrote: »

that's momentum based though isn't it? not reliable apparently.

That's real time/satellite imagery....not projection.

It's due north (in my opinion) you'd expect/need to be seeing, at this stage, if it is to impact the south coast tomorrow morning.

Reckless Abandonment

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

Been watching that too. God knows where it will end up.

giggsirish

MeteoAlarm have decided that none of this exists.(Obviously I know it does) Where do they get their data from?

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

DOCARCH

Discodog wrote: »

Seems to be just a straight line projection

Not a projection....

Have been watching that all day and there has been no significant northward turn.

[Deleted User]

4pm image. Its moved a fair bit since early morning imagery.

Middle Man

giggsirish wrote: »

MeteoAlarm have decided that none of this exists. Where do they get their data from?

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

The warning isn't in operation yet, so AFAIK it doesn't appear on meteoalarm.eu as of now.

Meteorite58

Aperge 12Z Looks like arriving a lot earlier ( unless DOCARACH has frightened it off :pac: )

Mean

Gust

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

4pm image. Its moved a fair bit since early morning imagery.

Yes, it has (moved a fair bit), but it has had the same trajectory all day....with no major northward movement (as far as I can see?).

Discodog

giggsirish wrote: »

MeteoAlarm have decided that none of this exists.(Obviously I know it does) Where do they get their data from?

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

It reads like it's up to each country to tell them of any warnings

Meteorite58

The full AROME 12Z out now

Gust

spookwoman

is there an eye forming? latest sat images https://weather.us/satellite/131-w-426-n/satellite-hd-5min.html

DOCARCH

Below is what I posted early this morning....

DOCARCH wrote: »

I suppose in the back of my head I am thinking of Irma....was supposed to head up the east coast of Florida and ended up the west coast of Florida at the last minute.

Ophelia is a Cat 3 'major' hurricane at the moment. I don't think it was forecast/expected to be that strong?

That, in my opinion, may effect the forecast track? The longer it remains a 'major' hurricane, the more the chance there is of it going wherever it pleases or resisting interaction with the jet stream.

As far as I am aware Ophelia was forecast to be weaker at this stage and the weaker hurricane was to be 'dragged' to Ireland by interaction with the jet stream.

Note: The above is not based on any science or forecast model! Just my own theory/hunch!

....other than looking at models (which are models)....nothing I have seen during the day has convinced me otherwise/that my own theory/hunch above is completely wrong!

Reckless Abandonment

spookwoman wrote: »

is there an eye forming? latest sat images https://weather.us/satellite/131-w-426-n/satellite-hd-5min.html

No. She's starting to unwrap herself.

Discodog

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Aperge 12Z Looks like arriving a lot earlier ( unless DOCARACH has frightened it off :pac: )

Has it ? I seem to have always had the eye arriving near Galway late afternoon. I even thought about trying to get some outdoor work done in the morning

Missymoohaa

DOCARCH wrote:

....other than looking at models (which are models)....nothing I have seen during the day has convinced me otherwise/that my own theory/hunch above is completely wrong!

So what are you saying.... We probably won't get hit by ophelia at all? You're really confusing me.

[Deleted User]

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yes, it has (moved a fair bit), but it has had the same trajectory all day....with no major northward movement (as far as I can see?).

Giving a (very) rough guess, just going by still images, I'd say its tracked N/NE by about 150 miles between 10am and 4 pm.