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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Reckless Abandonment

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

Been watching that too. God knows where it will end up.

DOCARCH

KCAccidental wrote: »

that's momentum based though isn't it? not reliable apparently.

That's real time/satellite imagery....not projection.

It's due north (in my opinion) you'd expect/need to be seeing, at this stage, if it is to impact the south coast tomorrow morning.

Discodog

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

Seems to be just a straight line projection

Rougies

KCAccidental wrote: »

that's momentum based though isn't it? not reliable apparently.

No, that's real satellite imagery, as reliable as it gets!

KCAccidental

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

that's momentum based though isn't it? not reliable apparently.

DOCARCH

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

Gaoth Laidir

I don't think there's much chance of a sting jet tomorrow as the jet will be fairly weak throughout but we'll see later.

lfc200

Seems from looking at the tracking that it will hit Ireland earlier than previously thought?

Gaoth Laidir

15Z wind analysis, showing max winds around Ophelia now down to 71 knots (about 65 in old money).

munsterlegend

Are we in a nowcast situation as of now? I remember in Darwin the sting jet just caused all sorts of problems and mayhem at the last minute.

M.T. Cranium

The GFS is also a bit faster than previously, some timing estimates may need to be moved up 1-2 hours.

Donegal Storm

spookwoman wrote: »

Don't think I've ever seen a chart like this before on met.ie

We've had similar strength wind as that plenty of times, just that its normally in more sparsely populated coastal Donegal and Mayo in mid winter

12z GFS just rolling out and largely as we were, a slight downgrade in winds with max gusts between 140-150kph and around 110 to 130kph gusts more generally

Kermit.de.frog

They can't even fit '100' on the arrows.

spookwoman

Don't think I've ever seen a chart like this before on met.ie

Cantona's Collars

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After transition this won't be lacking for a warm sector, temperatures on the north coast of Spain are generally at or above 30 C. (and all that is feeding directly into the developing expanding circulation).

The nowcasting portion of this event is going to be tremendously interesting, I think.

I wonder how much power these high temps around Spain will feed into Ophelia? Will we see less of a degradation of it as a hurricane than expected as it moves North?

Pa ElGrande

Bonzo Delaney wrote: »

How far behind live is nullschool.net

3 hours.

spookwoman

Bonzo Delaney wrote: »

How far behind live is nullschool.net

looks like its running from reports 15.00 UTC
Click on the word earth

Bonzo Delaney

How far behind live is nullschool.net

Xenji

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

They're relatively calm winds. Look at the left of the scale on the bottom, that's them.

Ah sorry, those purple colors are quite similar when looking on a phone.

shmaupel

Xenji wrote: »

Do you know why those isolated purple patches seem to be popping up around Mayo?

I asked something similar earlier, apparently the colour legend on the charts can be a little confusing and those 'purples' are slower winds than the actual purples. If that makes any sense.

Gaoth Laidir

Xenji wrote: »

Do you know why those isolated purple patches seem to be popping up around Mayo?

They're relatively calm winds. Look at the left of the scale on the bottom, that's them.

sdanseo

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

For anyone who doesn't usually follow hurricanes / tropical systems, remember that the cones on these charts are not the outer limits of the storm's effects - they're estimations as to where the eye of the storm is going to be. So in other words, the black line with the circular H symbol is the best guess for where the eye will go, but the shaded area on either side is the possible error in that forecast. Wind, rain and other effects will extent far beyond the cone - the cone refers only to the position of the storm's centre.

Right, a very important point too. See below the 50kt wind probability (10kt increments, purple is >90%) from the 09Z advisory. Latest ones not updated yet and these probabilities will increase significantly.

50kt = about 7kt above red warning threshold.

Gaoth Laidir

12Z Hirlam animation, showing a less potent - but still potent - scenario.

crustybla

M.T. Cranium, I wish I was in your house. Fascinating stuff.

Xenji

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Today's 12Z Hirlam is a slight downgrade on the 06Z. Below shows chart for midday tomorrow (12Z left, 06Z right). Force 10-11 max sustained winds along the south coast with that.

Do you know why those isolated purple patches seem to be popping up around Mayo?

M.T. Cranium

On the track, I suspect they have overcorrected a bit because the hurricane kept to the right of the predicted track most of the past 36 hours but at this point it may swerve almost due north, the main jet stream is still off to the west enough that it has time to do that before resuming a NNE track, so I would not be surprised if the actual track is closer to the earlier estimate than the new one.

After transition this won't be lacking for a warm sector, temperatures on the north coast of Spain are generally at or above 30 C. (and all that is feeding directly into the developing expanding circulation).

The nowcasting portion of this event is going to be tremendously interesting, I think.

hatrickpatrick

For anyone who doesn't usually follow hurricanes / tropical systems, remember that the cones on these charts are not the outer limits of the storm's effects - they're estimations as to where the eye of the storm is going to be. So in other words, the black line with the circular H symbol is the best guess for where the eye will go, but the shaded area on either side is the possible error in that forecast. Wind, rain and other effects will extent far beyond the cone - the cone refers only to the position of the storm's centre.

Gaoth Laidir

Today's 12Z Hirlam is a slight downgrade on the 06Z. Below shows chart for midday tomorrow (12Z left, 06Z right). Force 10-11 max sustained winds along the south coast with that.

munsterlegend

sdanseo wrote: »

Track comparison 0900Z vs 1500Z

Looks a good 50 miles east on the south coast anyway.

sdanseo

Track comparison 0900Z vs 1500Z