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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,829 ✭✭✭Rougies


    I overlayed the latest spaghetti chart over the latest sat24 image as best I could (they're different projections so can't get it perfect).

    Seems like it's still close to the forecast track, with a few models predicting a more northwards turn soon.

    FhRgoxe.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,652 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    We are at the "nowcast" point now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,555 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Looks to be turning more north to me. My money is on the east /South East getting the worst of this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,829 ✭✭✭Rougies


    We are at the "nowcast" point now.

    Indeed, squeaky bum time.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,395 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    So what are you saying.... We probably won't get hit by ophelia at all? You're really confusing me.

    First off....just to say that I am no expert!

    But, to me, I would have expected to see a quite distinct move/turn north today for Ophelia to directly hit Ireland. If I lived in the SE UK or NE France Ophelia's movements today would have caught my attention!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,605 ✭✭✭✭My name is URL


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

    Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

    I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

    Is it terrible that I hope not? :o


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 158 ✭✭Liffey4A


    Docarch has a point though, it does seem to be tracking East towards France, is it due to move Northerly soon?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,257 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    It looks to be moving NNE or about 020 ° to me, on track. It will pivot northwards as the upper trough catches hold of it.

    http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL172017&starting_image=2017AL17_4KMIRIMG_201710151215.GIF


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,395 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Is it terrible that I hope not? :o

    I totally understand!

    A bit like all the non-snow events over the last 6 years, my kids are now fully 'hurricane ready'! :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 209 ✭✭Easterly Beasterly


    What are the chance of Wicklow / Dublin being added to the Red Alert?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,734 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Met É have been consulting the NHC in Miami. The track is based on their well informed models and taking all influential nearby air masses into account. At -15 hrs I trust their forecast track at this point.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,257 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    What are the chance of Wicklow / Dublin being added to the Red Alert?

    I would say highly unlikely based on the slight downgrade in the 12Z HiRLAM.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,395 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Liffey4A wrote: »
    Docarch has a point though, it does seem to be tracking East towards France, is it due to move Northerly soon?

    As above/earlier, my own theory is that as Ophelia managed to get (I think unexpectedly?) to Cat 3, the jet stream just did not 'take control'/subsume it early enough, to drag it more north, and Ophelia carried itself more east, than expected, under it's own momentum.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 158 ✭✭Liffey4A


    When is next advisory?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,395 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Met É have been consulting the NHC in Miami. The track is based on their well informed models and taking all influential nearby air masses into account. At -15 hrs I trust their forecast track at this point.

    They (the NHC) didn't manage to get Irma's track (quite) right?


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    I would say highly unlikely based on the slight downgrade in the 12Z HiRLAM.

    HIRLAM has been all over the place the last 3 days. I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,089 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    WRF -NMM 12Z rolling out atm (ever so slightly more W on this one )

    Mean


    tempresult_waf1.gif



    Gusts

    tempresult_ldu1.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,827 ✭✭✭jirafa




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭piuswal


    Middle Man wrote: »
    The warning isn't in operation yet, so AFAIK it doesn't appear on meteoalarm.eu as of now.

    See the tomorrow tag at the bottom left.

    http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/1/0/IE003-Connacht.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,438 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Shes definitely making the turn now, look for possible strengthening


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,323 ✭✭✭prunudo


    WRF -NMM 12Z rolling out atm (ever so slightly more W on this one )



    Looking at those, especially the gusts I'm surprised more counties in Leinster aren't in the red alert zone


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,089 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The projected interaction with the with the Jet ( yesterdays chart but more or less the same for today )


    U4qLouq.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    They (the NHC) didn't manage to get Irma's track (quite) right?

    The track towards us is much clearer here

    https://en.sat24.com/en


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    As above/earlier, my own theory is that as Ophelia managed to get (I think unexpectedly?) to Cat 3, the jet stream just did not 'take control'/subsume it early enough, to drag it more north, and Ophelia carried itself more east, than expected, under it's own momentum.

    From what I can see on the sat24 radar, the trajectory of the hurricane seems to be heading for Devon England, but I suppose it may curve Northwards more taking it towards us.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,507 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    They had Jeff Masters on the news a couple of minutes ago, albeit quite briefly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Dublin

    Regular
    BECMG 1607/1609 10015G25KT
    BECMG 1610/1612 16025G40KT
    BECMG 1612/1614 16035G50KT
    BECMG 1616/1618 21030G45KT

    Decoded
    8am-10am 100 degrees 15kts gusting 25kts
    11am-1pm 160 degrees 25kts gusting 40kts
    1pm-3pm 160 degrees 35kts gusting 50kts
    5pm-7pm 210 degrees 30kts gusting to 45kts

    Shannon

    Regular
    BECMG 1605/1607 09025G35KT
    BECMG 1609/1612 14035G55KT
    BECMG 1612/1614 17040G60KT
    BECMG 1614/1616 23030G45KT

    Decoded
    6am-8am wind 090 degrees 25kts gusting to 35kts
    10am-1pm wind 140 degrees 35kts gusting 55kts
    1pm-3pm wind 170 degrees 40kts gusting 60kts
    3pm-5pm wind 230 degrees 30kts gusting 45kts

    Cork

    Regular
    BECMG 1603/1606 07020G30KT
    BECMG 1607/1609 17035G50KT
    BECMG 1609/1611 17040G60KT
    TEMPO 1611/1614 18048G70KT
    BECMG 1614/1616 23035G50KT


    Decoded
    4am-7am wind 070 degrees 20kts gusting 30kts
    8am-10am wind 170 degrees 35kts gusting 50kts
    10am-12pm wind 170 degrees 40kts gusting 60kts
    12pm-3pm wind temporarily 180 degrees 48kts gusting 70kts
    3pm-5pm wind 230 degrees 35kts gusting to 50kts


    Knock

    Regular
    BECMG 1603/1605 05018G30KT
    BECMG 1608/1610 08025G40KT
    BECMG 1610/1612 12025G40KT
    BECMG 1612/1614 12035G50KT
    BECMG 1614/1616 23030G45KT
    BECMG 1616/1618 24025G35KT

    Decoded
    4am-6am wind 050 degrees 18kts gusting 30kts
    9am-11am wind 080 degrees 25kts gusting 40kts
    11am-1pm wind 120 degrees 25kts gusting 40kts
    1pm-3pm wind 120 degrees 35kts gusting 50kts
    3pm-5pm wind 230 degrees 30kts gusting 45kts
    4pm-6pm wind 240 degrees 25kts gusting 35kts

    *----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*

    Nothing spectacular at Knock, Shannon and Dublin, however I've never seen 70kts at Cork!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,089 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    jvan wrote: »
    WRF -NMM 12Z rolling out atm (ever so slightly more W on this one )

    Looking at those, especially the gusts I'm surprised more counties in Leinster isnt in the red alert zone

    I would have thought so too, but it must be a high end Orange rather then a Red I suppose atm , although on the chart below it is borderline if not Red ?

    6296_nto2.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 405 ✭✭cyclops999


    Wow red warning all counties possible in next couple of hours


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 648 ✭✭✭Oscarziggy


    The BBC shipping forecast says this for Fastnet --
    I've never heard the term in red used before .
    Regards


    Fastnet
    Gale Warning: Gale warning issued 15 October 09:55 UTC (Open)
    Southerly hurricane force 12 expected later
    Wind
    Cyclonic, mainly south or southwest, 5 to 7, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 later, occasionally hurricane force 12.
    Sea State
    Moderate or rough, becoming high or very high later, occasionally phenomenal.
    Weather
    Fair then rain.
    Visibility
    Good becoming poor.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,661 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy




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