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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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munsterlegend

mickmackey1 wrote: »

So a moderately windy day across most of the country... jaysus :rolleyes:

Yeah even met eireann throw out red warnings like confetti..

Gaoth Laidir

SSMIS 85 GHz scan (left) and 37 GHz (right) from 1735Z, both showing a bit of erosion getting into the western side of the storm, probably due to increasing shear or drier air. The 37 GHz shows the low level structure of cloud and rain as red, while the 85 GHz shows the upper level structure. Shear is set to increase tonight so I think we have seen the last of the nice sexy visible images of Ophelia as such a symmetric hurricane.

20171014.1735.f16.x.composite.17LOPHELIA.100kts-960mb-342N-277W.82pc.jpg

20171014.1735.f16.x.composite.17LOPHELIA.100kts-960mb-342N-277W.82pc.jpg

mickmackey1

Bsal wrote: »

UK met office surface winds for 12z Monday

So a moderately windy day across most of the country... jaysus :rolleyes:

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest 12Z ECM 850 hPa chart, Kts mean speeds

That looks further east to me as in affecting areas like Wexford and Waterford as much as cork/Kerry.

BorneTobyWilde

That model keeps it at hurricane Cat 3 .

spookwoman

pad199207 wrote: »

I think folks in Wexford and Waterford should be very vigilant!

darragh o meara

In comparison to Storm Darwin a few years back, how is this gonna compare? I live in South Tipp but will be in North Kildare while this is passing over, Im worried about the family as it was pretty bad down this way during Darwin.

Bsal

UK met office surface winds for 12z Monday in knots.

Gaoth Laidir

A post from the After Hours thread on Ophelia...

Allinall wrote: »

I'm getting two hatches installed in my house as I type this.

Just so I can batten them down.

Gaoth Laidir

pjohnson wrote: »

So whats the prediction?

Have a read of the thread.

Oneiric 3

MJohnston wrote: »

To be honest, “belly up” in this particular can really only describe an ‘upgrade’ (in the storm energy sense), and I think a lot of us would be happy for it not to get any worse than the current predictions.

Speak for yourself...

Meteorite58

Latest 12Z ECM 850 hPa chart, Kts mean speeds

pad199207

I think folks in Wexford and Waterford should be very vigilant!

pjohnson

MJohnston wrote: »

That’s a chart of the current conditions of the storm, not anything predictive.

So whats the prediction?

Oneiric 3

Latest WV image:

MJohnston

server down wrote: »

Does that mean the south east is likely to bear the brunt?

That’s a chart of the current conditions of the storm, not anything predictive.

server down

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

18Z multiplatform wind analysis, showing max winds 88 knots 38 NM east of the centre. Further expansion of the 64+ knot windfield to 85 NM. Central pressure 947 hPa.

Does that mean the south east is likely to bear the brunt?

MJohnston

Pangea wrote: »

It has been a fascinating few days following this thread,I'm still waiting for everything to go belly up, let's be honest most potential interesting weather events tend to go that way in this country

To be honest, “belly up” in this particular can really only describe an ‘upgrade’ (in the storm energy sense), and I think a lot of us would be happy for it not to get any worse than the current predictions.

philstar

Deank wrote: »

Looks ominous here.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.95;-8.05;6&l=gust&t=20171016/13

south-east is the place to be for storm chasers, me thinks

Meteorite58

12Z ECM just rolling out

Note: 850hpa chart

Gaoth Laidir

18Z multiplatform wind analysis, showing max winds 88 knots 38 NM east of the centre. Further expansion of the 64+ knot windfield to 85 NM. Central pressure 947 hPa.

thecretinhop

Great work guys.
2 questions. At what stage would you be able to call it locked in as definite going to happen and where and what are the key update times over next day or so?

[Deleted User]

dense wrote: »

It's the weekend. RTE really only does foreign news at weekends.

Surely they have an oncall producer who can go "By the way, mention something about that storm heading our way.."

Edit: Wrote this post just after the 1pm news when there was no mention of the storm. Due to a browser glitch it only posted the comment at 7.40. Looked at RTE news just now and to be fair they did mention it.

munsterlegend

Pangea wrote: »

It has been a fascinating few days following this thread,I'm still waiting for everything to go belly up, let's be honest most potential interesting weather events tend to go that way in this country

Yeah I was expecting it to go west this morning and move away from us. Of course it might still do. If it moves further east then a lot more counties in the red zone.

dacogawa

MJohnston wrote: »

I think it will be very close to a SSE wind direction, which is not good for Clontarf, but I haven’t looked at the tide times.

Dublin full tide is just after 10pm so the tide should be lower at what looks like peak wind times, looking like they will shift direction coming towards full tide.

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Dublin-Ireland/tides/latest

Pangea

It has been a fascinating few days following this thread,I'm still waiting for everything to go belly up, let's be honest most potential interesting weather events tend to go that way in this country

Deank

Looks ominous here.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.95;-8.05;6&l=gust&t=20171016/13

MJohnston

dusty207 wrote: »

Living on the seafront in Clontarf where even "normal" high winds cause flooding, any idea what the wind direction will be?

I think it will be very close to a SSE wind direction, which is not good for Clontarf, but I haven’t looked at the tide times.

Captain Snow

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-17.32,45.43,1016/loc=-0.616,51.790

Gaoth Laidir

20171014.1815.goes13.x.vis1km_high.17LOPHELIA.100kts-960mb-342N-277W.100pc.jpg