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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

It might be an outlier, looks much further E then the other models. They are mean speeds , gusts much higher.

Shows the uncertainty though the models have been very steady with regards to the path the last few days.

Donegal Storm

12z Euro..

Winds at 850hPa (stronger than ground level), direct hit for Cork and Kerry again

dusty207

Living on the seafront in Clontarf where even "normal" high winds cause flooding, any idea what the wind direction will be?

Meteorite58

Winds at 850hPa (stronger than ground level), direct hit for Cork and Kerry again

Seems the Met Eireann forecast is very much following the ECM not too dissimilar rto the GFS ( gusts at 10m )

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/919217340826509312

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919247482252615681

gozunda

Donegal Storm wrote: »

12z Euro..

...
Winds at 850hPa (stronger than ground level), direct hit for Cork and Kerry again

A bit further east then previous to include Kerry/ Cork / Limerick (east) / Waterford / Wexford ...

Kermit.de.frog

NAVGEM

Again initially it is that southwestern corner i'd be most concerned about. Damaging.

Meteorite58

This afternoon

zlPyvwT.jpg?2

uck51js9zml2yt

What width is she?

Gaoth Laidir

Kai Rotten Shipwreck wrote: »

What width is she?

About a Size 8

Gaoth Laidir

I'm not sure how the HWRF hurricane model handles extratropical systems but for what it's worth here is its output for 09Z Monday.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider/status/919266634191138816

https://twitter.com/valmenor/status/919265882790158336

sdanseo

dusty207 wrote: »

Living on the seafront in Clontarf where even "normal" high winds cause flooding, any idea what the wind direction will be?

You'll be getting your usual dose of ton bags of sand no doubt.

vicwatson

Stupid question alert - will there be much precipitation with this?

smunchkins

I'm in Baltimore. From most of these models it looks like we'll be the welcome party.

dusty207

sdanseo wrote: »

You'll be getting your usual dose of ton bags of sand no doubt.

Haha, not a sign of anything stirring so far!

Gaoth Laidir

20171014.1815.goes13.x.vis1km_high.17LOPHELIA.100kts-960mb-342N-277W.100pc.jpg

Captain Snow

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-17.32,45.43,1016/loc=-0.616,51.790

MJohnston

dusty207 wrote: »

Living on the seafront in Clontarf where even "normal" high winds cause flooding, any idea what the wind direction will be?

I think it will be very close to a SSE wind direction, which is not good for Clontarf, but I haven’t looked at the tide times.

Deank

Looks ominous here.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.95;-8.05;6&l=gust&t=20171016/13

Pangea

It has been a fascinating few days following this thread,I'm still waiting for everything to go belly up, let's be honest most potential interesting weather events tend to go that way in this country

dacogawa

MJohnston wrote: »

I think it will be very close to a SSE wind direction, which is not good for Clontarf, but I haven’t looked at the tide times.

Dublin full tide is just after 10pm so the tide should be lower at what looks like peak wind times, looking like they will shift direction coming towards full tide.

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Dublin-Ireland/tides/latest

munsterlegend

Pangea wrote: »

It has been a fascinating few days following this thread,I'm still waiting for everything to go belly up, let's be honest most potential interesting weather events tend to go that way in this country

Yeah I was expecting it to go west this morning and move away from us. Of course it might still do. If it moves further east then a lot more counties in the red zone.

[Deleted User]

dense wrote: »

It's the weekend. RTE really only does foreign news at weekends.

Surely they have an oncall producer who can go "By the way, mention something about that storm heading our way.."

Edit: Wrote this post just after the 1pm news when there was no mention of the storm. Due to a browser glitch it only posted the comment at 7.40. Looked at RTE news just now and to be fair they did mention it.

thecretinhop

Great work guys.
2 questions. At what stage would you be able to call it locked in as definite going to happen and where and what are the key update times over next day or so?

Gaoth Laidir

18Z multiplatform wind analysis, showing max winds 88 knots 38 NM east of the centre. Further expansion of the 64+ knot windfield to 85 NM. Central pressure 947 hPa.

Meteorite58

12Z ECM just rolling out

Note: 850hpa chart

philstar

Deank wrote: »

Looks ominous here.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.95;-8.05;6&l=gust&t=20171016/13

south-east is the place to be for storm chasers, me thinks

MJohnston

Pangea wrote: »

It has been a fascinating few days following this thread,I'm still waiting for everything to go belly up, let's be honest most potential interesting weather events tend to go that way in this country

To be honest, “belly up” in this particular can really only describe an ‘upgrade’ (in the storm energy sense), and I think a lot of us would be happy for it not to get any worse than the current predictions.

server down

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

18Z multiplatform wind analysis, showing max winds 88 knots 38 NM east of the centre. Further expansion of the 64+ knot windfield to 85 NM. Central pressure 947 hPa.

Does that mean the south east is likely to bear the brunt?