Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

cnocbui

orangerhyme wrote: »

Its not pie in the sky.
Commercial aircraft is already almost autonomous.

If all the flying taxis are autonmous, it makes it much safer. You could have one central control over everything.

Can you imagine if all cars were autonmous in the future, there would be 0 chance of accidents. Cars wouldnt need all the safety features of cars and theyd be much lighter and the range would increase significantly.

Here we go again... There is no arguing with people who claim that perfect autonomous systems are achievable with no chance of accidents.

Tesla cars get firmware updates. Imagine that on April 1st of some year, 500,000 Tesla cars suddenly apply maximum acceleration, disconnect the brakes and 3 minutes later steer into the oncoming lane of traffic. And some hacker claims credit for the cool hack.

cgcsb

Del.Monte wrote: »

Some posters in this thread have watched far too much Sci-Fi and a more likely scenario instead of high tech flying taxis is a country starved of oil as the big powers come to blows as they scramble to secure rapidly diminishing resources. Ireland's motorways with grass growing on them but I suppose that won't affect the flying taxis - won't be great for autonomous cars though.

By the time autonomous cars become popular plenty of motorways, firstly the M17, will have grass on them due to an urbanizing population, rather than a 70s style energy crisis. Will Europe have any interest at all in extracting oil by then? In the more immediate future cheaper batteries and renewables may even eliminate the need for gas for electricity generation. Also the vast majority of us will be living in apartments in Cities and complete almost all of our journeys by foot, bicycle, electric public transport and as a very last resort for exceptional journeys rented electric cars. Thus the demand for energy in transport will be greatly diminished.

orangerhyme

https://www.uber.com/elevate.pdf

This is well worth a read for anyone interested in flying taxis. It was published in 2016 and very extensive.

"Our analysis shows that in the long-term autonomous case, direct costs per vehicle mile will
approach 50 cents per mile (equivalent to 35 cents per ground mile). We can expect that the
price for a 45-mile pool VTOL, which would replace a 60-mile automobile trip, could
approach as low as $21 for the 15 minute journey."

This sounds very promising.

dense

orangerhyme wrote: »

Its not pie in the sky.
Commercial aircraft is already almost autonomous.

I'm being genuine when I say that bus drivers in city centres do a far harder job for less pay and recognition and worse conditions than airline pilots of today.


Sorry for being off topic!

orangerhyme

dense wrote: »

I'm being genuine when I say that bus drivers in city centres do a far harder job for less pay and recognition and worse conditions than airline pilots of today.


Sorry for being off topic!

I agree. Pilots training is much harder and more expensive though as they need to be prepared for when something goes wrong which is actually very rare.

But on a day to day basis driving is much more difficult.

orangerhyme

cgcsb wrote: »

If flying taxis became popular there'd be a lot of issues with traffic, in the air.
Road markings and traffic signals are what makes autonomous vehicles possible at present, AI will have to improve much more before it can navigate a journey without recognizable road markings.


So in Ireland it'd be unfeasible entirely as a mass transit option. Indeed it'd be unfeasible globally since the rate of disruption to service would be so high. The transfer of people to ground transport modes would make a luas strike look like a tea party.


:rolleyes:
so it's the birds fault that humans invaded their natural territory and killed them? Is human activity not already extincting enough species?



Air traffic control at the moment with only scheduled flights and a handful of helicopters is difficult at the best of times.



Well that's the biggest problem facing personalized autonomous aviation.
There is no way, without large scale nuclear fusion, to provide enough energy at an affordable rate.

When you get in a prius taxi now the main cost you are paying is the drivers wages. Vehicle maintenance and the tiny amount of petrol used is negligible. Try renting a helicopter for a short, 5km journey. The pilot will get paid slightly more than a taxi driver(depending). but the cost of the energy to get you off the ground will contribute €1000s of euro to your €12 taxi fare.

I honestly dont know why I bother, so many of these points are nonsensical.

The airspace is open 3d space hence roadmarkings and traffic signals are unnecessary. Its because of roads being so complex that autonomous driving is difficult, not the other way around. Autonomous flying is way easier, we've had it for decades.

Bad weather wont lead to huge disruption. Your app will inform you that flying is suspended due to bad weather and alternative modes of transport will be suggested. Flying taxis wont be mass transit anyway, this will still be buses and trains.

Birds wont become extinct and extinct is an adjective not a verb. Also it will just be a cross city short haul service. Also how many animals are already being killed by vehicles and planes.

cgcsb

orangerhyme wrote: »

The airspace is open 3d space hence roadmarkings and traffic signals are unnecessary. Its because of roads being so complex that autonomous driving is difficult, not the other way around. Autonomous flying is way easier, we've had it for decades.

The autopilot of current commercial aircraft isn't AI as such and it doesn't do take off or landing. flying taxis will operate at much lower altitude and if they are abundant then there will be traffic. Road markings and traffic signals HELP AI driven cars. It is much more difficult for AI to navigate in 3 dimensions and without any consistent visual road markers.

orangerhyme

Anyway, read the white paper by Uber I linked above. It covers all aspects.

I'm convinced it'll be a reality within 10 years

magicbastarder

cgcsb wrote: »

The autopilot of current commercial aircraft isn't AI as such and it doesn't do take off or landing.

Modern autopilot systems certainly *can* land a plane.

https://www.flightdeckfriend.com/can-a-plane-land-automatically

cnocbui

dense wrote: »

I'm being genuine when I say that bus drivers in city centres do a far harder job for less pay and recognition and worse conditions than airline pilots of today.


Sorry for being off topic!

Yeah, when the engine on a plane stops working, the thing just keeps moving. Compare that to what a poor bus driver has to contend with when the engine stops working. He has to mollify the passengers and contact HQ and arrange for alternative arrangements for the passengers and such.

The pilots get it so easy by contrast.

This shows why lines on the road are not a prerequisite for autonomous vehicles and how to account for the random human factor, 2 things a lot of naysayers on this thread like to use as a reason why this tech won't happen

It should be noted, this is the worst this will be, it will only get better

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wndxm2dCQGE

markodaly

New advancements in having smarter cars mean that this will become as standard quicker than people realise.
Things like lane assist, autonomous emergency braking, speed assist and so on, are set to become mandatory requirements to get a 5 star safety rating from ANCAP. This is a big deal, as having a 5 star rating means that the car will sell much better than one without, so car manufacturers will toe the line and add these features.

This, of course, means that in the very very near future, say 5 years, almost all new cars will have SAE level 2 autonomous driving capability. This will also mean fewer road accidents and fatalities. I am sure there will be some people who will try and use these stats to try and prove that humans are 'great' drivers, completely oblivious to the fact that more and more of the driving functionality is being taken away from humans.

https://www.euroncap.com/en/vehicle-safety/the-rewards-explained/
https://www.ancap.com.au/future-requirements

cnocbui

I believe you are wrong. I think it quite likely that anything less than full level 4 autonomy will be made illegal, at least in the EU. If not, it should be because 2 & 3 are predicated on a human monitoring the situation with the same rigour and undivided attention they would apply in the case of them driving manually. This has been shown to be a very naive and dangerous expectation.

I don't think level 4 will be common or mandated within 5 years.

markodaly

cnocbui wrote: »

I believe you are wrong. I think it quite likely that anything less than full level 4 autonomy will be made illegal, at least in the EU. If not, it should be because 2 & 3 are predicated on a human monitoring the situation with the same rigour and undivided attention they would apply in the case of them driving manually. This has been shown to be a very naive and dangerous expectation.

Made illegal? Ha, there is a working group in the EU looking at this right now, to create a legal and legislative framework to cater for this.

Audi have a new A8 coming out that is SAE 3, is that made illegal?
What about AEB ( autonomous emergency braking), should that be made illegal because humans may slack off while driving, thinking the car will save them?
Sure, may as well make seatbelts and airbags illegal so, ROFL

We have SAE level 2 cars on our roads right now for crying out load and they have shown that they are safer and save lives, that is why NCAP are looking closely at this new tech and trying to promote it.

How would it look, if say in the USA or China where SAE level 4/3/2 vehicles are commonplace and legal, which saves thousands upon thousands of lives a year, yet the EU make them illegal based on the fantasy of internet users.

Once the genie is out of the bottle you can't put it back in because of the globalised nature of the world now.

The denial is strong in this one.

I don't think level 4 will be common or mandated within 5 years.

I didn't say common or mandated. I did say SAE level 2 and 3 will be common and if a car wants to have a 5 star NCAP rating for safety then it will be mandated to have the smart features that today that is not so common.

Please read my posts properly.

A car company can, of course, chose not to install these features as standard, like today afaik, there is no LEGAL requirement for a car to have x airbags, but good luck selling a new one if it does have them. The market will dictate the outcome there.

cgcsb

cnocbui wrote: »

I believe you are wrong. I think it quite likely that anything less than full level 4 autonomy will be made illegal, at least in the EU. If not, it should be because 2 & 3 are predicated on a human monitoring the situation with the same rigour and undivided attention they would apply in the case of them driving manually. This has been shown to be a very naive and dangerous expectation.

I don't think level 4 will be common or mandated within 5 years.

The EU's largest country Germany has a massive car industry, providing jobs for millions. France, Spain and Italy also have large interest in this. They are not going to force these large domestic industries to be less competitive with their Japanese and Indian counterparts.

Also if the emissions scandal or Germany's abject failure in switching to renewable sources of electricity has taught you nothing, I'll let you in on a secret. When the Germans aren't winning the game, they change the rules or take their ball and go home.

dense

markodaly wrote: »

The market will dictate the outcome there.

Where is the appetite amongst drivers to be not permitted to drive?


The market may not be as enthusiastic as you think.


In the US demand for even semi autonomous features has fallen in the last couple of years.

According to the survey, 51% of U.S. drivers want semi-autonomous vehicle technology in the next vehicle they buy or lease, down from 59% in early 2017.

http://fortune.com/2018/01/24/aaa-drivers-fear-self-driving-cars/

There is big BIG money being put into this. It is coming, it's just a matter of when


Honda to invest $2.75 billion in GM's Cruise self-driving unit


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous/honda-to-invest-2-75-billion-in-gms-cruise-self-driving-unit-idUSKCN1MD1GW?feedType=RSS&feedName=newsOne

markodaly

dense wrote: »

Where is the appetite amongst drivers to be not permitted to drive?


The market may not be as enthusiastic as you think.


In the US demand for even semi autonomous features has fallen in the last couple of years.
http://fortune.com/2018/01/24/aaa-drivers-fear-self-driving-cars/

Cars with a 5 star NCAP rating sell more than units than those without.

Some people may like driving, but I can assure you that for some its a pain, and they would rather that on their daily commute be doing something else.

Even if 51% of Americans were to buy a semi/full autonomous vehicle, that is still over 8.6 million units sold, per year.
One just has to look at Tesla and the success they have had in the US. They have kicked German manufacturers to touch (BMW, Mercedes, Audi) with their cars.

Sales of German cars have plummeted (partly due to deiselgate) but also due to the offerings of Tesla. Tesla just cannot make their cars quick enough and the Germans have been left reeling.

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsells-entire-bmw-car-lineup/

This is a sign of things to come.

Once Tesla enters the market fully in Europe, you will see the same thing happen here. Do you think the Germans will take this lying down? Nope. VW has started to invest tens of billions into its ID series of EV's. All of these cars will be min SAE level 2, so the proliferation of EV's also means the advancement of autonomous driving and tech.

This is why I give my 2025-2030 prediction, and I have not even mentioned Waymo, GM or anything the Chinese have been doing.

prinzeugen

markodaly wrote: »

Cars with a 5 star NCAP rating sell more than units than those without.

Some people may like driving, but I can assure you that for some its a pain, and they would rather that on their daily commute be doing something else.

Even if 51% of Americans were to buy a semi/full autonomous vehicle, that is still over 8.6 million units sold, per year.
One just has to look at Tesla and the success they have had in the US. They have kicked German manufacturers to touch (BMW, Mercedes, Audi) with their cars.

Sales of German cars have plummeted (partly due to deiselgate) but also due to the offerings of Tesla. Tesla just cannot make their cars quick enough and the Germans have been left reeling.

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsells-entire-bmw-car-lineup/

This is a sign of things to come.

Once Tesla enters the market fully in Europe, you will see the same thing happen here. Do you think the Germans will take this lying down? Nope. VW has started to invest tens of billions into its ID series of EV's. All of these cars will be min SAE level 2, so the proliferation of EV's also means the advancement of autonomous driving and tech.

This is why I give my 2025-2030 prediction, and I have not even mentioned Waymo, GM or anything the Chinese have been doing.

You must not have seen the articles during the summer and again today about Tesla stockpiling cars due to lack of demand. Thousands of them.

Tesla claims there are not enough trucks to move them to dealerships while the truck companies claim there are trucks but Tesla does not have the cash to pay for the haulage.

Remember investment in an idea does not mean it will be a success or even happen.

I don't know if you are old enough to remember Tomorrows World on the BBC. AI, self driving electric cars have been talked about since the 1960's.

We should have had this years ago according to the tech "experts" of the day.

Twenty Grand

What are you talking about? Tesla model 3 is nearly the best selling sedan in the US, definitely the best electric and best luxury car, and they're hitting their stride making it now. Over 80,000 cars were built and delivered in Q3, compared to 40k in Q2.
Demand is increasing all the time with phenomenal reviews.

Throw up a link there of someone who had an actual plan of creating an autonomous car in the 60s, and I mean one that was actually autonomous, in that it made algorothmic decisions based on inputs.

prinzeugen

Twenty Grand wrote: »

What are you talking about? Tesla model 3 is nearly the best selling sedan in the US, definitely the best electric and best luxury car, and they're hitting their stride making it now. Over 80,000 cars were built and delivered in Q3, compared to 40k in Q2.
Demand is increasing all the time with phenomenal reviews.

Throw up a link there of someone who had an actual plan of creating an autonomous car in the 60s, and I mean one that was actually autonomous, in that it made algorothmic decisions based on inputs.

Here is a AI VW from 1990..

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tVQsVkYbpuw

Will need to look for the 60s link again as it popped up as a suggestion on YouTube and its gone now.

The cars Tesla are stockpiling must be the 80% of production that has a build quality worse than a 80s Yugo?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6232905/Why-thousands-Tesla-cars-parked-mysterious-locations-country.html

Twenty Grand

prinzeugen wrote: »

Here is a AI VW from 1990..

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tVQsVkYbpuw

Will need to look for the 60s link again as it popped up as a suggestion on YouTube and its gone now.

The cars Tesla are stockpiling must be the 80% of production that has a build quality worse than a 80s Yugo?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6232905/Why-thousands-Tesla-cars-parked-mysterious-locations-country.html

Wow a self parking car. They've been around for what, 15 years? That's not AI by the way.
Also, if you need to resort to the Daily Fail for a source then it's not worth discussing.
"Hundreds of parked cars" Well theyre making nearly a thousand a day so a few hundred parked up isn't unusual I'd say :rolleyes:

prinzeugen

Twenty Grand wrote: »

Wow a self parking car. They've been around for what, 15 years? That's not AI by the way.
Also, if you need to resort to the Daily Fail for a source then it's not worth discussing.
"Hundreds of parked cars" Well theyre making nearly a thousand a day so a few hundred parked up isn't unusual I'd say :rolleyes:

If you dont like the Daily Mail its on other sites also.

The VW It is AI. How does it park? It senses what is around it and makes the decision on what to do next. It is self driving.

More advanced than the tin box running up and down a pre programmed route in Dublin. Exactly the same tech. Absolutely nothing new about it.

Wasting my time with a Musk worshipper anyway. If the reports are true, Tesla will be bankrupt in the spring anyway.

Danzy

prinzeugen wrote: »

If you dont like the Daily Mail its on other sites also. It is AI. How does it park? It senses what is around it and makes the decision on what to do next. It is self driving.

More advanced than the tin box running up and down a pre programmed route in Dublin. Exactly the same tech. Absolutely nothing new about it.

Wasting my time with a Musk worshipper anyway. If the reports are true, Tesla will be bankrupt in the spring anyway.

Tesla may well be but all the major car companies are pouring in to electric and self drive.

As tech they are nearly there without the major players committing that is changing though now.

Twenty Grand

prinzeugen wrote: »

If you dont like the Daily Mail its on other sites also.

The VW It is AI. How does it park? It senses what is around it and makes the decision on what to do next. It is self driving.

More advanced than the tin box running up and down a pre programmed route in Dublin. Exactly the same tech. Absolutely nothing new about it.

Wasting my time with a Musk worshipper anyway. If the reports are true, Tesla will be bankrupt in the spring anyway.

Why didn't you link one of those sites instead of that rag? The VW is not autonomous, it's automated. No artificial intelligence involved. By your logic a automatic door is AI as it senses a person and "makes a decision" to open.

Your knowledge about this is laughable, but I suppose it represents the most people who can't be bothered educating themselves and jump to lazy prejudice.

Not a musk worshipper btw. What reports would they be? Any recent ones? People have been predicting Tesla's downfall for the last 5 years. It's still going strong.

prinzeugen

Twenty Grand wrote: »

Why didn't you link one of those sites instead of that rag? The VW is not autonomous, it's automated. No artificial intelligence involved. By your logic a automatic door is AI as it senses a person and "makes a decision" to open.

Your knowledge about this is laughable, but I suppose it represents the most people who can't be bothered educating themselves and jump to lazy prejudice.

Not a musk worshipper btw. What reports would they be? Any recent ones? People have been predicting Tesla's downfall for the last 5 years. It's still going strong.

I can't be bothered to educate myself? I am educated and know not to be brainwashed. I was also taught how to carry out daily tasks and have been trained to do millions of tasks without an AI system having to it for me.

Perhaps it is you that is uneducated as you think we need AI to do tasks that most of us humans can do just fine.

British Rail has videos (go on YouTube and look for BFI rail films) 1960s. AI self driving train. Rail report 1968 IIRC.

As for lazy.. WiFi kettles, toasters and lights.. That is lazy.

Tesla? $290 million in loan interest payments due in the spring (in cash).. Ha. Watch them scramble for new investors to get the cash to pay that.

Danzy

prinzeugen wrote: »

I can't be bothered to educate myself? I am educated and know not to be brainwashed. I was also taught how to carry out daily tasks and have been trained to do millions of tasks without an AI system having to it for me.

Perhaps it is you that is uneducated as you think we need AI to do tasks that most of us humans can do just fine.

British Rail has videos (go on YouTube and look for BFI rail films) 1960s. AI self driving train. Rail report 1968 IIRC.

As for lazy.. WiFi kettles, toasters and lights.. That is lazy.

Tesla? $290 million in loan interest payments due in the spring (in cash).. Ha. Watch them scramble for new investors to get the cash to pay that.

Life doesn't work like that though.

dense

markodaly wrote: »

Some people may like driving, but I can assure you that for some its a pain, and they would rather that on their daily commute be doing something else.

Like what specifically?

Another poster was bigging up what people would be doing to pass the time in autonomous vehicles as if relieving them of the chore of driving was going to somehow set them free to realise their full personal potential.


When asked what they were talking about they can't answer and get a bit smart, so they're talking shïte here.

And, so are you.

You can assure yourself of all you like but the reality is a little bit different.


Do drivers actually want autonomous vehicles? No one pushing them here has put anything forward to demonstrate that drivers are actively looking forward to being forbidden to drive.



Unless I'm very much mistaken, that is the aim here, with efficiency, public safety blah blah blah being put forward as the reaons.


You don't want it to be optional because the lone driver on the grid will cause too many issues for the robots.


And it also appears that any envisioned "market" for autonomous vehicles will be an enforced, artificial one, forced by the usual lefty activists (this time jumping on to the road safety bandwagon) who want to control every aspect of the lives of others, people who most likely do not even drive themselves, and are unhappy that other people choose to drive.


I think I've summed that up quite well.

cnocbui

markodaly wrote: »

...
We have SAE level 2 cars on our roads right now for crying out load and they have shown that they are safer and save lives, that is why NCAP are looking closely at this new tech and trying to promote it.

...

What is the evidence that level 2 autonomous driving saves lives? Please, no anecdotal nonsense from Tesla owners about how their car avoided an accident that any human driver would also have avoided. Credible evidence would be appreciated.

AlmightyCushion

dense wrote: »

Like what specifically?

Another poster was bigging up what people would be doing to pass the time in autonomous vehicles as if relieving them of the chore of driving was going to somehow set them free to realise their full personal potential.


When asked what they were talking about they can't answer and get a bit smart, so they're talking shïte here.

Anything else. The same things they do in their free time. They could do some work, watch videos, read a book, browse the internet, text people.

Do you really think most people enjoy their morning and evening commute? Most people I know either don't mind it or don't like it. I don't think any of them actually enjoy it. Give them a self driving car that allows them to text and watch youtube instead of driving and they'd be happier.

Even people who really like driving, probably don't like their commute as it usually involves plenty of sitting around in traffic.