Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

cgcsb

Stephen15 wrote: »

It won't happen in the 20 years I would say 30 would be a push. I can't see it coming until EVs become the norm which they are not. Is an Automated petrol or diesel vehicle possible probably not.

20 to 30 years = lightning fast speed in terms of societal change. The industrial revolution took over a century to urbanise the population of Europe, still hasn't arrived in Ireland or Portugal yet.

orangerhyme

does anyone think autonomous electric planes will come first, before cars?

Its much easier I think to build. Far less hazardous.

Batteries need to catch up a little but they would be very popular for short across city flights.

From Dublin city center to airport for example.

Or Canary wharf to Stansted or Heathrow.

magicbastarder

I'm slightly baffled by claims that as autonomous vehicles are 'not needed' that they won't happen. In 15 years time, if you've to choose a vehicle that a) you've to be awake to use, b) you've to be sober to use, c) you've to constantly dedicate your attention to, to use, and d) you've to undergo training and licensing to use, versus a vehicle which needs none of the above, which would you choose?

The thread is disappointing. It's mainly just a 'will it/won't it' back and forth rather than a more interesting debate on how it may change our relationship with the car, for good and bad. And its effects on society.

prinzeugen

magicbastarder wrote: »

I'm slightly baffled by claims that as autonomous vehicles are 'not needed' that they won't happen. In 15 years time, if you've to choose a vehicle that a) you've to be awake to use, b) you've to be sober to use, c) you've to constantly dedicate your attention to, to use, and d) you've to undergo training and licensing to use, versus a vehicle which needs none of the above, which would you choose?

The thread is disappointing. It's mainly just a 'will it/won't it' back and forth rather than a more interesting debate on how it may change our relationship with the car, for good and bad. And its effects on society.

We all make that choice as they already exist. They are called taxis. We don't need to give a taxi driver our life/internet/banking history to use one.

But I bet any AI taxi or bus will require such details so you can get force fed "relevant" advertising while you travel.

and back to my post about the Glasgow Underground going driverless.. Its not the unions that are against it. Police, fire etc have major concerns.

The Glasgow Underground is much, much smaller than Londons (in height, width, track gauge). There is no option of walking along the track as there is only centimetres space in some places. What happens when it all goes wrong and people try to detrain?

Its a very claustrophobic environment.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AJOMi4J8PoI

Twenty Grand

So a demo of the world's first driverless tram happened in Germany this week

Interesting stuff and it'll be interesting to see how this develops over the next few decades. There's great potential I believe in trackless trams. Especially if they're able to run regular 24 hr transport.

magicbastarder

[Quote/]We all make that choice as they already exist. They are called taxis.[/quote]
So why isn't taxi use as ubiquitous as car usage for private journeys, if that choice already exists?

dense

magicbastarder wrote: »

[Quote/]We all make that choice as they already exist. They are called taxis.

So why isn't taxi use as ubiquitous as car usage for private journeys, if that choice already exists?[/QUOTE]


Good question.



Is it for economic reasons?



IE do people think it's cheaper to purchase insure and maintain a car etc than what it would cost them in taxi fares for the year?



Or do people feel they have more freedom and independence being a car owner?

mfceiling

Twenty Grand wrote: »

So a demo of the world's first driverless tram happened in Germany this week

Interesting stuff and it'll be interesting to see how this develops over the next few decades. There's great potential I believe in trackless trams. Especially if they're able to run regular 24 hr transport.

Germany launches world's first autonomous tram in Potsdam

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/23/potsdam-inside-the-worlds-first-autonomous-tram?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

I posted this a few days ago. People are seriously burying their heads in the sand if they think this technology isn't heading this way. Billions are being invested in the technology and they aren't expecting this to happen in 20 or 30 years. They want this rolled out asap.
Governments will play ball here....very little in the way of road crashes will be a positive. Insurance companies will be affected? No more "dubious" claims of whiplash etc.

Del.Monte

Twenty Grand wrote: »

So a demo of the world's first driverless tram happened in Germany this week

Interesting stuff and it'll be interesting to see how this develops over the next few decades. There's great potential I believe in trackless trams. Especially if they're able to run regular 24 hr transport.

You're coming late to the party on this - they are called bendy buses

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articulated_buses_in_London

All the disadvantages of a bus and none of the advantages of a tram - but cheap so I'm surprised our political overlords haven't inflicted them on us as an alternative to Luas extensions.

dense

mfceiling wrote: »

Germany launches world's first autonomous tram in Potsdam

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/23/potsdam-inside-the-worlds-first-autonomous-tram?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

I posted this a few days ago. People are seriously burying their heads in the sand if they think this technology isn't heading this way. Billions are being invested in the technology and they aren't expecting this to happen in 20 or 30 years. They want this rolled out asap.
Governments will play ball here....very little in the way of road crashes will be a positive. Insurance companies will be affected? No more "dubious" claims of whiplash etc.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/are-we-going-too-fast-driverless-cars


Transport experts say full autonomy is decades away....


Getting a tram to traverse a kilometer by remote control is not something I find hugely impressive if I'm honest.

Stephen15

Del.Monte wrote: »

You're coming late to the party on this - they are called bendy buses

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articulated_buses_in_London

All the disadvantages of a bus and none of the advantages of a tram - but cheap so I'm surprised our political overlords haven't inflicted them on us as an alternative to Luas extensions.

They'd work with the proper infrastructure in place like in many European cities which have proper bus lanes and longer stops. They had them here in Dublin but they were withdrawn in 2010. They used to work the 10 and more recently the 4. They didn't work as the infrastructure wasn't in place. Belfast has them now on their Glider BRT service.

http://www.dublinbusstuff.com/PhotoWeek/Route04.html

prinzeugen

mfceiling wrote: »

Germany launches world's first autonomous tram in Potsdam

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/23/potsdam-inside-the-worlds-first-autonomous-tram?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

I posted this a few days ago. People are seriously burying their heads in the sand if they think this technology isn't heading this way. Billions are being invested in the technology and they aren't expecting this to happen in 20 or 30 years. They want this rolled out asap.
Governments will play ball here....very little in the way of road crashes will be a positive. Insurance companies will be affected? No more "dubious" claims of whiplash etc.

Hmmm. "Its makers say it is some way from being commercially viable but they do expect it to contribute to the wider field of driverless technology, and have called it an important milestone on the way to autonomous driving."

Thats the killer right there. €€€€€. Until its financially viable, it won't happen. And the tram is semi autonomous. Nothing new there.

And I doubt governments will play ball until it is financially viable. They just need to look at Concorde. A great leap forward but was never going to make or save money.

mfceiling

prinzeugen wrote: »

And I doubt governments will play ball until it is financially viable. They just need to look at Concorde. A great leap forward but was never going to make or save money.

To be fair Concorde isn't a great example. Yes it was super fast but that was it. A one trick pony. It was cramped inside, was ridiculously expensive to use and run and could only hit top speed when it was over the sea.

cnocbui

mfceiling wrote: »

To be fair Concorde isn't a great example. Yes it was super fast but that was it. A one trick pony. It was cramped inside, was ridiculously expensive to use and run and could only hit top speed when it was over the sea.

You make it sound as if Concorde was limited to subsonic over land by some inherent technical flaw when the limitation was entirely political. The seating might have been a bit cramped, but you weren't seated for long.

It also had a very smooth ride, so there's another trick.

cgcsb

orangerhyme wrote: »

does anyone think autonomous electric planes will come first, before cars?

Its much easier I think to build. Far less hazardous.

Batteries need to catch up a little but they would be very popular for short across city flights.

From Dublin city center to airport for example.

Or Canary wharf to Stansted or Heathrow.

An experimental solar plane has recently completed a round the world trip unmanned. It charges it's battery during the day with solar panels so it can fly at night.

The energy density required for take off for something as large as a commercial passenger jet may not be possible even in the long term. However I'd expect to see hybrid diesel electric planes in the short term that could take off with the power of diesel and complete most of its flight with solar or charged batteries.

The tech already exists to reduce the staff compliment of commercial planes to 1. A pilot is only really needed on the rare occasion that weather makes landing really dodgy. Cabin crew have been redundant for quite some time but there's probably a bit of reluctance in removing them.

TheQuietFella

I watched this last night and yes, it was impressive but what are the flaws here?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3ELVACR2VY

magicbastarder

dense wrote: »

Is it for economic reasons?

IE do people think it's cheaper to purchase insure and maintain a car etc than what it would cost them in taxi fares for the year?

Or do people feel they have more freedom and independence being a car owner?

I guess most people don't like the idea of having to flag down a taxi every time they want to pop down to aldi.

dense

magicbastarder wrote: »

I guess most people don't like the idea of having to flag down a taxi every time they want to pop down to aldi.

Mmmm.

They're going to have to get used to ordering an autonomous pod to pick them up at their door to go to Aldi if this thread is anything to go by.


If this thing works out properly as I see it the need to own the vehicle won't exist.

cnocbui

TheQuietFella wrote: »

I watch this last night and yes, it was impressive but what are the flaws here?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3ELVACR2VY

'Since we got on the motorway, you haven't done anything.' They didn't engage autonomous mode on the unmarked back road. Then the driver mentions about the viewer not seeing the five antennae on the central reservation that talk to the car all the time... I was impressed it handled the toll, but can't help the feeling that the car has been schooled and groomed for that particular motorway.

Why did he say 'shall I take it?' What was edited out of the video there? Something like the Renault guy saying 'we are coming to the end of the test route now?'

Then he takes the wheel again and disengages the autopilot and says "I feel like my brain is struggling with driving again." That's after just 50km and shows why autonomous systems probably have to be fully capable or not be deployed at all.

The Renault guy also said that right now the technology is very expensive. Clearly they think it can be made affordable but that remains to be proven.

Personally, I think these publicity promotional videos that demonstrate autonomous driving in controlled situations are dangerous because they are very unbalanced and will lead to the public developing a one-eyed optimism you see in this thread quite a bit. Fake tech news leading to people having an inaccurate appreciation of reality.

cnocbui

dense wrote: »

Mmmm.

They're going to have to get used to ordering an autonomous pod to pick them up at their door to go to Aldi if this thread is anything to go by.


If this thing works out properly as I see it the need to own the vehicle won't exist.

Spot on. A lot of Apple fan-boys are drooling at the prospect of one day owning an Apple car when I think the reality is that they will just get an exclusive-to-iOS app on their iPhone that summons a car within minutes. Don't be surprised if it's already occupied by a couple other people staring at the screen of their phone.

dense

cnocbui wrote: »

Spot on. A lot of Apple fan-boys are drooling at the prospect of one day owning an Apple car when I think the reality is that they will just get an exclusive-to-iOS app on their iPhone that summons a car within minutes. Don't be surprised if it's already occupied by a couple other people staring at the screen of their phone.

Yes, that is the collective dystopian dream that is being sold.


We are constantly being berated for owning too much useless "stuff" anyway, a car that has no use for 22 hours of a day being a prime example of people owning useless stuff.


That, as they say, is just not sustainable, whereas shared usage and ownership seems much more so.


Pay as you go if you like.



A premium could be paid to avoid having to share space with the other screen starers I suppose.

magicbastarder

dense wrote: »

Mmmm.

They're going to have to get used to ordering an autonomous pod to pick them up at their door to go to Aldi if this thread is anything to go by.


If this thing works out properly as I see it the need to own the vehicle won't exist.

This is not part and parcel of autonomous vehicles though. What percentage of journeys are made up by trips in cars like go cars? The ability to car share is already with us, and perhaps will pave the way a little to getting people used to the idea of non-ownership. But that might happen without AI.

dense

magicbastarder wrote: »

This is not part and parcel of autonomous vehicles though.

It is a big part of it though:

Closely related to the previous point, robot cars potentially have big implications for car parking. Instead of it being necessary to leave one’s vehicle at one’s destination, the vehicle can be instructed to return to a convenient storage location, or (if it’s a shared car) to pick up the next waiting passenger.

https://www.ptua.org.au/myths/robotcar/

"There's a lot of talk about autonomous vehicles, but my view is that until they all start communicating seamlessly together, you're just going to get traffic jams full of autonomous vehicles with nobody in them as they go to pick up other people," he said. "It's going to exacerbate the situation rather than improve it."

https://www.dezeen.com/2018/01/10/self-driving-cars-exacerbate-congestion-says-paul-priestman/


As it is we are constantly being discouraged to drive our cars on reasons of congestion alone!


Of course the views vary as to whether autonomous vehicles will make congestion better or worse...

dense

dense wrote: »

Of course the views vary as to whether autonomous vehicles will make congestion better or worse...

Autonomous vehicles won't make congestion worse

An unregulated sharing system most definitely will

You only have to look at what has happened around the world with regards to "drop where you want" bike sharing schemes. A total mess

dense

Deleted User wrote: »

Autonomous vehicles won't make congestion worse

An unregulated sharing system most definitely will

Who would introduce an unregulated sharing system? Not the investors.

It won't be feasible to have them tossed in the canal after single usage so will have need serious authentication processes to get users authorised, requiring personal data and bank details like any rental cars ATM.


The public services card would have simplified a lot of it.....

These "passenger pods" (lets move away from calling them cars) will be subject to huge regulations whether being shared or not.


A sales pitch showing the "advantages" of this technology involves having granny in a remote area being able to summon a pod to get her to church or visiting her forgotten grandchildren in the big smoke.


Let's think of the benefits of social inclusion here.

The Healy Raes should be big fans.


Congestion will be an issue during any future protracted cross over period where autonomous vehicles are vying for shared space with standard vehicles and bicycles and pedestrians.

Heavy regulation beyond the banning of new ICE vehicles may well be required to implement policies to speed up the move away from driven vehicles towards autonomous in the name of stated future accident and emissions reductions target scenarios.


The days of choosing to buy one's own car at a garage and being reasonably free to drive about at one's leisure without being monitored and authorised to do so for each trip are numbered if what we are reading about here comes to pass.


I don't see that flying politically.


One wonders what does the motor industry feel about the whole thing.


I get the feeling they're not holding their breath that it's going to happen in the next couple of decades at least what with how much each marque seems to be investing to get on the electric car bandwagon.

dense

dense wrote: »

Who would introduce an unregulated sharing system? Not the investors.

Already been done with bikes, scooters etc. No reason why it wouldn't happen again

It won't be feasible to have them tossed in the canal after single usage so will have need serious authentication processes to get users authorised, requiring personal data and bank details like any rental cars ATM.

Again, no, see existing examples. Also, how does one "toss" a car into the canal?

The public services card would have simplified a lot of it.....

Are you f'in insane.

These "passenger pods" (lets move away from calling them cars) will be subject to huge regulations whether being shared or not.

They have been called cars for a century, so they're cars. You want to make up a name, go ahead, but you'll be the only one using it

As for regs, really? What regs do you envisage being needed because the ownership model changes?

Congestion will be an issue during any future protracted cross over period where autonomous vehicles are vying for shared space with standard vehicles and bicycles and pedestrians.

Traffic congestion is a condition on road networks that occurs as usage increases, and is characterized by slower speeds, longer trip times, and increased vehicular queueing

Think of it like an egg timer. The gap (road) can only allow the same volume of sand (vehicles) regardless of how much is waiting to go through

Heavy regulation beyond the banning of new ICE vehicles may well be required to implement policies to speed up the move away from driven vehicles towards autonomous in the name of stated future accident and emissions reductions target scenarios.

Car insurance premiums will be the main driver towards the transition. Once the level 4/5 systems are generally available, the insurance industry will be aggressively pushing for its usage. You will still have the option not to, but will (a) have a higher premium and/or (b) if involved in a crash, will result in a penalty.

The days of choosing to buy one's own car at a garage and being reasonably free to drive about at one's leisure without being monitored and authorised to do so for each trip are numbered if what we are reading about here comes to pass.

Authorised?

One wonders what does the motor industry feel about the whole thing.


I get the feeling they're not holding their breath that it's going to happen in the next couple of decades at least what with how much each marque seems to be investing to get on the electric car bandwagon.

Umm, lol

dense

Deleted User wrote: »

Already been done with bikes, scooters etc. No reason why it wouldn't happen again


Again, no, see existing examples. Also, how does one "toss" a car into the canal?



Are you f'in insane.



They have been called cars for a century, so they're cars. You want to make up a name, go ahead, but you'll be the only one using it

As for regs, really? What regs do you envisage being needed because the ownership model changes?



Traffic congestion is a condition on road networks that occurs as usage increases, and is characterized by slower speeds, longer trip times, and increased vehicular queueing

Think of it like an egg timer. The gap (road) can only allow the same volume of sand (vehicles) regardless of how much is waiting to go through



Car insurance premiums will be the main driver towards the transition. Once the level 4/5 systems are generally available, the insurance industry will be aggressively pushing for its usage. You will still have the option not to, but will (a) have a higher premium and/or (b) if involved in a crash, will result in a penalty.



Authorised?



Umm, lol

Yes, authorised and monitored.



Do you think the authorities are going to authorise travel in a passenger pod during a red weather alert for example?


Or in the vicinity of a sit down protest?



The authority to travel in these at any time will not be in the hands of the person who is currently called a motorist. Your autonomy is being taken away after all and being given to the pod.



So your movements will be decided, monitored and analysed by someone else at all times regardless of whether you want to acknowledge it or not.


This will all have to be remotely controlled by someone at first, and then by regulated by algorithms to ensure public safety is paramount at all times.


Investors are going to have to get a return on the billions being invested and will need tight regulations in terms of verifying users ID and their means to pay for their usage of these pods to ensure this happens, and that most likely will require it being done seamlessly through whichever tech company handles your banking app be it Apple or Google.



That's why I mentioned the PSC, remember the hoo ha that ensued from the liberal civil liberties brigade.


I'd imagine the most eager early adopters of the pods would be generally the same facebook types who would want to protect their civil liberties from big brother government at all costs when it suits but don't see an issue with multi nationals having open access to their tradeable personal data.

You are adding 2+2 and getting 73.

I understand the basis of where you are coming from however there is a large void in your knowledge which is rendering a lot of your points to the same level as tinfoil hats

Twenty Grand

So this week BMW reaffirmed their goal to develop a fully autonomous car by 2021.

They set that goal a few years back, and in fairness I thought it had slipped, but nice to know they still believe it can be done

dense

Twenty Grand wrote: »

So this week BMW reaffirmed their goal to develop a fully autonomous car by 2021.

They set that goal a few years back, and in fairness I thought it had slipped, but nice to know they still believe it can be done

Its just a hot potato for them.


BMW doesn't seem to know what it wants to do about autonomous cars then.


Last month they were being quoted as saying autonomous vehicles might never be permitted and their future investment in the area was being questioned:


https://www.2025ad.com/the-week-in-ad/2018-08/ethical-dilemma-will-bmw-give-up-driverless-cars/



https://www.bmwblog.com/2018/06/28/bmw-fully-autonomous-cars-may-never-be-allowed-on-the-roads/