Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

markodaly · 24-09-2018 2:14pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Here is the one line from the NHTSA report that you cite as proof that autonomous driving systems, will, without doubt, reduce road deaths by over 90%:

If they get rid of the human error element, they will reduce road deaths. That is already a conclusion beyond doubt. The only question is how fast they get to SAE 4/5.

Both statements would be true, but they are not evidential and are merely aspirational. There is no 'will happen' in the statement you cite as evidence.

You are completely wrong about the Uber death being unavoidable. What actually happened is that the Tempe Police chief jumped the gun and blabbed within two days of the accident that it was unavoidable, even if a human had been driving or paying attention. She probably didn't realise that the Uber video that was released was probably doctored by Uber to make it appear that the environment was near pitch-black, when actually it is quite well lit.

Normal dash cam vs Uber's dash cam

The police chief, Sylvia Moir, later regretted being so hasty to pre-judge, because the 'official' police report actually concluded that the accident was entirely avoidable by a human driver.

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/tempe-police-chief-moir-ryff-uber-autonomous-driving-10556991

You really need to work on being able to distinguish between fact and fiction

Conspiracy forum -> way.

You give about the lack of evidence yet spout some awful guff yourself.

So, I will ask again, do you think we will remain at SAE level 3 for the next 30-40 years, while the likes of Google, Uber with Toyota, Volvo among others are all working to get a SAE level 4/5 car on the public road?

markodaly · 24-09-2018 2:15pm

bobby.toddger wrote: »

Worlds largest hedge fund during the summer announced to share holders, that autonomous vehicles potential has been hugely overstated, they wont be ready for 20 to 30 years and that they are pulling out of such ventures.
Now who to believe?
Billionaire hedge fund or posters on boards?

Which fund is this now?

Twenty Grand · 24-09-2018 8:23pm

Billionaire hedge fund (unnamed) or Google, Apple, BMW, Renault, Mercedes, Uber, Lyft, Telsa, VW, Skoda, Honda, Hyundai, and a thousand others investing in the space.

markodaly · 25-09-2018 11:02am

Apparently, $80 Billion has already been invested in self-driving technology.

Waymo, have on order 20,000 Jaguar I-Pace along with 62,000 Fiat Crysler Mini Vans. At the moment they only have 600 cars (that drive 40,000 KM's daily in total) and plan to increase that over the next year or two to over 80,000 cars, all of which will be SAE level 4.

But sure, its never going to happen or at least it is going to take 50 years or something something...

cgcsb · 25-09-2018 3:02pm

It's an interesting topic. For hundreds of years mechanisation has given us an overall improvement to the average quality of life, even if it caused short term job losses.

The rise of AI has a lot of people spoked though, and I'd imagine it's a question of scale. The industrial revolution initially resulted in only the most back breaking of manual labour jobs replaced and the process was quite slow.

Now we have low-staff supermarkets, amazon even operate a completely staffless supermarket. There are staffless banks all over the country, eventually they'll all be that way. With transport, we'll probably see drone deliveries to apartments become more commonplace. Fixed track vehicles and now even buses may be automated.

The issue now is the technology is actually moving faster than is politically acceptable. It is possible to have completely AI comercial flights with human input from the ground in emergency situations.

There will soon be commercially available robot chefs, dentists, teachers and delivery men.

The Musk guy who owns Tesla reckons it'll come to violence. Governments will shut down AI companies and destroy their research to preserve the economy.

History has shown that freeing humans from more and more menial tasks has resulted in humans turning their attentions to ever more lofty aspirations. This time around, can humans adapt fast enough? who knows. What will humans do in a world without any work?

One thing is for certain, those who work in retail or in the transport sector, the clock is definitely ticking. You guys are first for the chop.

Ray Bloody Purchase · 25-09-2018 3:11pm

Cordell wrote: »

Actually, we all do travel in time.

Always going forward, because we can't find reverse?

fly_agaric · 25-09-2018 8:51pm

cgcsb wrote: »

One thing is for certain, those who work in retail or in the transport sector, the clock is definitely ticking. You guys are first for the chop.

Retail may be a bit safer (IMO). Alot of the damage there has been done by online/distance selling. The role of actually selling stuff to customers is a very "human" acivity that the robots are probably never going to take over. Might be that companies will shift towards having more of these "people person" jobs to pamper their customers if they are saving loads of money by automating everything else.

AndrewJRenko · 25-09-2018 10:50pm

cgcsb wrote: »

There will soon be commercially available robot dentists,

Will they still try to make small talk with you while your mouth is full of 2 or 3 metal instruments and 2 or 3 fingers?

Twenty Grand · 25-09-2018 10:59pm

markodaly wrote: »

Apparently, $80 Billion has already been invested in self-driving technology.

Waymo, have on order 20,000 Jaguar I-Pace along with 62,000 Fiat Crysler Mini Vans. At the moment they only have 600 cars (that drive 40,000 KM's daily in total) and plan to increase that over the next year or two to over 80,000 cars, all of which will be SAE level 4.

But sure, its never going to happen or at least it is going to take 50 years or something something...

Pretty much this.

There's an unfounded presumption that technological progress is linear when it's more an exponential.

Stephen15 · 25-09-2018 11:30pm

Autonomous vehicles or not it will be a long time for the day we see a DB or a Go-Ahead bus for that matter without a driver sitting in the cab. It's not gonna happen

markodaly · 25-09-2018 11:34pm

Stephen15 wrote: »

Autonomous vehicles or not it will be a long time for the day we see a DB or a Go-Ahead bus for that matter without a driver sitting in the cab. It's not gonna happen

Not going to happen.....ever?
LOL

Stephen15 · 25-09-2018 11:44pm

markodaly wrote: »

Not going to happen.....ever?
LOL

In won't happen anytime soon. Full size double decker buses aren't being made driverless anytime soon. Any plans for driverless buses will be met with firm resistance by the unions and rightly so. How would you go about replacing a perfectly good new buses with driverless ones how do think that will work. Passengers won't feel safe without a staff member on board.

Twenty Grand · 26-09-2018 12:07am

Stephen15 wrote: »

In won't happen anytime soon. Full size double decker buses aren't being made driverless anytime soon. Any plans for driverless buses will be met with firm resistance by the unions and rightly so. How would you go about replacing a perfectly good new buses with driverless ones how do think that will work. Passengers won't feel safe without a staff member on board.

You're thinking about it in a current mentality.

If you told people in the 90's that in 20 years one third of the world would have an online profile that anyone can search, and all their photos and personal information would be available, they'd think you're mad.

Yet that's life.

Society changes much quicker than people realise.

markodaly · 26-09-2018 12:08am

Stephen15 wrote: »

In won't happen anytime soon. Full size double decker buses aren't being made driverless anytime soon. Any plans for driverless buses will be met with firm resistance by the unions and rightly so. How would you go about replacing a perfectly good new buses with driverless ones how do think that will work. Passengers won't feel safe without a staff member on board.

It depends on how you define soon. Its not going to happen in the next year or two of course but as I mentioned earlier, 2025-2030 will see the inflection point of this technology becoming mainstream and common.

If the only excuse people have not to have self-driving buses is that of jobs, then they are onto a loser straight away.

Remember the time that there was an elevator operator? Those guys who would ask you what floor you wanted to go to, and they would push a button and close the door/cage of the elevator? Apparently, the only reason these guys existed is that people did not trust the 'technology' and instead put their faith and trust into an experienced and qualified person to operate the elevator.

Sounds silly now, but self-driving cars are like that. At first, people will be uneasy, but after a while people will be laughing back at it, stating how silly we all were driving around ourselves and why anyone would be afraid of a self-driving car when humans account for 94% of road fatalities.

As for bus drivers, well people in their 50's and 60's can rest easy. These guys are going to retire as bus drivers. But if you are starting out in your 20s or 30's and expect to have a 40 year career driving, I think not. After 2030 the game will be up and all it will take is some stupid bus driver to knock someone down and kill them, to create a public outcry to usher in changes.

That is even to suggest do we need buses, as self-driving cars will usher in the era of cheap point to point transportation. The way we think of transportation today will not be the same in how we use transportation from 2030.

26-09-2018 12:33am

Stephen15 wrote: »

Any plans for driverless buses will be met with firm resistance by the unions and rightly so.

Thank you for, yet again, proving one of my main points about why this is needed and why it will be a success.

nobody will be held to ransom by transport unions anymore and innovation in the public transport realm will be a possibility

As for how to deal with the staff issue, natural attrition, voluntary redundancy, relocation to other roles, upskilling and training etc etc etc.

Just because someone is a bus driver, nothing says they have to stay as one.

prinzeugen · 26-09-2018 1:36am

markodaly wrote: »

It depends on how you define soon. Its not going to happen in the next year or two of course but as I mentioned earlier, 2025-2030 will see the inflection point of this technology becoming mainstream and common.

If the only excuse people have not to have self-driving buses is that of jobs, then they are onto a loser straight away.

Remember the time that there was an elevator operator? Those guys who would ask you what floor you wanted to go to, and they would push a button and close the door/cage of the elevator? Apparently, the only reason these guys existed is that people did not trust the 'technology' and instead put their faith and trust into an experienced and qualified person to operate the elevator.

Sounds silly now, but self-driving cars are like that. At first, people will be uneasy, but after a while people will be laughing back at it, stating how silly we all were driving around ourselves and why anyone would be afraid of a self-driving car when humans account for 94% of road fatalities.

As for bus drivers, well people in their 50's and 60's can rest easy. These guys are going to retire as bus drivers. But if you are starting out in your 20s or 30's and expect to have a 40 year career driving, I think not. After 2030 the game will be up and all it will take is some stupid bus driver to knock someone down and kill them, to create a public outcry to usher in changes.

That is even to suggest do we need buses, as self-driving cars will usher in the era of cheap point to point transportation. The way we think of transportation today will not be the same in how we use transportation from 2030.

Early elevators ran off hydraulic pressure not electric and needed a trained person to use them. The hydraulic pressure (400-500 psi) was produced by big power plants and was transmitted by pipes to various concerns. London still used the system until the late 70's. It powered everything from factories to elevators, cranes and powertools.

2025-2030? Nope. Self driving road transport will not be "mainstream" while any of us are still alive. road

The Glasgow Underground is due to be "AI" soon but most in the railway industry are predicting a disaster. AI cannot predict human behaviour.

There are still major issues with the technology. Rain.. AI needs to see clear road markings. How will that work here when they are covered in muck or submerged by a puddle?

The will drive into a ditch or barrier looking for markings. (Like a Telsa but of course it was the drivers fault not the technology as thats full proof right?)

You say 94% of road deaths are humans? Whats the rest? Pets? Does someone count squashed roadkill?

94% of human males have accidentally hit the floor while having a wee. Should we take the human element out of going to the loo to avoid soggy floors as well?

markodaly · 26-09-2018 10:29am

2025-2030? Nope. Self driving road transport will not be "mainstream" while any of us are still alive. road

Some of us are in our 20's. You honestly think in 60 years time there will be no self driving cars? LOL.

The Glasgow Underground is due to be "AI" soon but most in the railway industry are predicting a disaster. AI cannot predict human behaviour.

Who are 'most' in the railway industry, or that 'most' unions? Driverless underground and trains have been with us for decades. There is barely a metro that is being built that does not have some sort of automation.

There are still major issues with the technology. Rain.. AI needs to see clear road markings. How will that work here when they are covered in muck or submerged by a puddle?

It is true that the technology is still a work in progress. Things like snow and seagulls causing issues with these cars. Yet, this is today, 2018. These issues can be overcome. Waymo are testing their cars in harsher climates like Detroit, Michigan and Portland, Oregan.

The will drive into a ditch or barrier looking for markings. (Like a Telsa but of course it was the drivers fault not the technology as thats full proof right?)

As already mentioned, Tesla is not a fully autonomous system. It is SAE level 2. Blaming that tech for not being autonomous is like blaming an airbag for not saving a life, when the driver doesn't wear a seatbelt.

You say 94% of road deaths are humans? Whats the rest? Pets? Does someone count squashed roadkill?

Perhaps you need to read some more of my posts. 94% of road fatalities are caused by human error. The other 6% is caused by vehicles (brakes failing, tries, steering malfunction, etc), environment (fog, snow, glare, bad road signs, etc) and the rest are undetermined.

Whatever way you slice it, the human behind the wheel is responsible for 94% of road fatalities.

94% of human males have accidentally hit the floor while having a wee. Should we take the human element out of going to the loo to avoid soggy floors as well?

If this was causing 1.2 million deaths world wide, perhaps. However, its not a problem. Road deaths are a problem, hence the solution self-driving offers.

Danzy · 26-09-2018 10:36am

Society is changing at a quicker pace now than even twenty years ago.

The big investments in the next 5 years in the auto industry are in self drive vehicles and electrical.

They were pumping billions in now, not in decades to come.

The tech is already there, the effort wasn't.

end of the road · 26-09-2018 10:55am

Deleted User wrote: »

Thank you for, yet again, proving one of my main points about why this is needed and why it will be a success.

except he hasn't proved your main points about why this is supposibly needed (it's actually not) more it's wanted so companies can make more money, and why it will supposibly be a success (at the moment that's just speculation)

Deleted User wrote: »

nobody will be held to ransom by transport unions anymore and innovation in the public transport realm will be a possibility

nobody is held to ransom by transport unions as it is and even with automation, strikes can still see down time. innovation can and will happen as long as someone is willing to pay for it, unions can't, won't and don't stop it from happening. however there is only so much innovation that can be done.

Deleted User wrote: »

As for how to deal with the staff issue, natural attrition, voluntary redundancy, relocation to other roles, upskilling and training etc etc etc.

i'd agree they are the most likely, however upskilling isn't always viable, and when there are a surplus of candidates and a drout of work, then we will need to be prepared for that before it actually happens.

Deleted User wrote: »

Just because someone is a bus driver, nothing says they have to stay as one.

so?

markodaly · 26-09-2018 11:12am

end of the road wrote: »

except he hasn't proved your main points about why this is supposibly needed (it's actually not) more it's wanted so companies can make more money, and why it will supposibly be a success (at the moment that's just speculation)

And the easier way to reduce road fatalities are?

AlmightyCushion · 26-09-2018 11:21am

end of the road wrote: »

except he hasn't proved your main points about why this is supposibly needed (it's actually not) more it's wanted so companies can make more money, and why it will supposibly be a success (at the moment that's just speculation)

It's not needed as such but plenty of technological innovations aren't needed. Smartphones weren't needed. Our society would still have functioned without them and yet pretty much everyone has one. Cars weren't needed when they were introduced, horses did a grand enough job. Look around you, most of the technology you see wasn't needed at the time it was invented. Lots of companies made lots of money from these products that weren't needed at the time but people and society still benefited from them.

orangerhyme · 26-09-2018 3:52pm

I think people should bear in mind that every major car company is researching this technology as well as many tech companies and startups.

I've heard close to 100 companies have invested over 100 billion in research and this is rising.
The car companies know it's sink or swim for them if they don't keep up.

I could see in the near future Chinese car companies knocking out cheap EVs and licensing the Waymo software. Similar to smartphones and laptops. The marginal cost of autonomous ride shares will be so low they'll need to be strictly controlled, otherwise congestion will be too much.

I think initially AVs will follow select routes similar to buses so won't be full level 5 autonomous.

For example AVs will at major transport hubs and other areas of high traffic.
Eg from Heuston station to Airport, or College Green to Aviva/Croke park etc, Dame St to Harcourt st.
I think we'll see this within 5 years in Dublin.
Also pizza/food/grocery delivery will come quickly as it'll be faster and cheaper than normal delivery. Your smartphone app will open a drawer in the delivery van to access your food.

I'm still not sure when full level 5 autonomous cars will come. Maybe traffic signals need to become smart and digital first.
Traffic lights could emit a little signal. Or maybe central traffic control sends data to all AVs.

There's things I'm not sure about such as how they handle edge cases such as construction work, or traffic accidents, or countless other things.

CollinsTara · 26-09-2018 3:55pm

Waiting the feeling after work, when you can just jump to car -> close your eyes -> car takes you home -> car honks horn and wakes you up

duffman3833 · 26-09-2018 3:57pm

CollinsTara wrote: »

Waiting the feeling after work, when you can just jump to car -> close your eyes -> car takes you home -> car honks horn and wakes you up

even better if it brings you home from the pub, rural pubs will be booming then

Twenty Grand · 26-09-2018 5:34pm

duffman3833 wrote: »

even better if it brings you home from the pub, rural pubs will be booming then

Ive zero problems getting to the pub. It's the taking home I need

HonalD · 26-09-2018 6:30pm

orangerhyme wrote: »

I think people should bear in mind that every major car company is researching this technology as well as many tech companies and startups.

I've heard close to 100 companies have invested over 100 billion in research and this is rising.
The car companies know it's sink or swim for them if they don't keep up.

I could see in the near future Chinese car companies knocking out cheap EVs and licensing the Waymo software. Similar to smartphones and laptops. The marginal cost of autonomous ride shares will be so low they'll need to be strictly controlled, otherwise congestion will be too much.

I think initially AVs will follow select routes similar to buses so won't be full level 5 autonomous.

For example AVs will at major transport hubs and other areas of high traffic.
Eg from Heuston station to Airport, or College Green to Aviva/Croke park etc, Dame St to Harcourt st.
I think we'll see this within 5 years in Dublin.
Also pizza/food/grocery delivery will come quickly as it'll be faster and cheaper than normal delivery. Your smartphone app will open a drawer in the delivery van to access your food.

I'm still not sure when full level 5 autonomous cars will come. Maybe traffic signals need to become smart and digital first.
Traffic lights could emit a little signal. Or maybe central traffic control sends data to all AVs.

There's things I'm not sure about such as how they handle edge cases such as construction work, or traffic accidents, or countless other things.

These issues are being looked at around the world. A number of comments:

1. Self driving vehicles will create huge amounts of data;
2. This data will require 5G communications (probably);
3. Commercial 5G is due 2023-2025 or later;
4. Issue is dealing with non automouous vehicles and vulnerable road users;
5. Everything will happen incrementally but Level 5 will happen, we just don’t know when (post 2030).

Overall, I don’t see anything to be afraid of, it’s progression. Unless you are a truck driver or taxi driver.

orangerhyme · 26-09-2018 7:06pm

HonalD wrote: »

These issues are being looked at around the world. A number of comments:

1. Self driving vehicles will create huge amounts of data;
2. This data will require 5G communications (probably);
3. Commercial 5G is due 2023-2025 or later;
4. Issue is dealing with non automouous vehicles and vulnerable road users;
5. Everything will happen incrementally but Level 5 will happen, we just don’t know when (post 2030).

Overall, I don’t see anything to be afraid of, it’s progression. Unless you are a truck driver or taxi driver.

I was just about to write about how wide availability of 5G would be necessary which will take a few years.
Also GPS is only accurate to 4m but its now possible to be accurate to 30cm I think and maybe up to just a couple of cms. Im not sure when this will happen though.

cgcsb · 26-09-2018 7:06pm

Stephen15 wrote: »

In won't happen anytime soon. Full size double decker buses aren't being made driverless anytime soon. Any plans for driverless buses will be met with firm resistance by the unions and rightly so. How would you go about replacing a perfectly good new buses with driverless ones how do think that will work. Passengers won't feel safe without a staff member on board.

We're not talking about in a fortnights time though. Extend your vision beyond next week.

Stephen15 · 26-09-2018 7:10pm

cgcsb wrote: »

We're not talking about in a fortnights time though. Extend your vision beyond next week.

It won't happen in the 20 years I would say 30 would be a push. I can't see it coming until EVs become the norm which they are not. Is an Automated petrol or diesel vehicle possible probably not.

cgcsb · 26-09-2018 7:14pm

prinzeugen wrote: »

Early elevators ran off hydraulic pressure not electric and needed a trained person to use them. The hydraulic pressure (400-500 psi) was produced by big power plants and was transmitted by pipes to various concerns. London still used the system until the late 70's. It powered everything from factories to elevators, cranes and powertools.

2025-2030? Nope. Self driving road transport will not be "mainstream" while any of us are still alive. road

The Glasgow Underground is due to be "AI" soon but most in the railway industry are predicting a disaster. AI cannot predict human behaviour.

There are still major issues with the technology. Rain.. AI needs to see clear road markings. How will that work here when they are covered in muck or submerged by a puddle?

The will drive into a ditch or barrier looking for markings. (Like a Telsa but of course it was the drivers fault not the technology as thats full proof right?)

You say 94% of road deaths are humans? Whats the rest? Pets? Does someone count squashed roadkill?

94% of human males have accidentally hit the floor while having a wee. Should we take the human element out of going to the loo to avoid soggy floors as well?

You think in small terms. The current shortcomings of ai in transport are only a few iterations and software updates away from.being irradicated.

At this present time, the government have tasked some consultants to convert the existing luas green line into a driverless metro. It's happening, bursting your head in the sand won't stop it.

Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

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