Why would anyone give away good tips.

mayoman1973

Cheltenham 15:30 Wholestone Bet 365 @ 23.00

mayoman1973

Cheltenham 16:50 Dawn Shadow Paddy Power @ 81.00

oppiuy

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Hmm, assume I am down from the original starting point. Never guess the answer to something that you can actually measure. Every selection is posted pre race time so anyone that bothers to check all results will see nice profit margin.
This game depends very much on how big of a sample size you take. Go with the last 2 days then prob evens at best I'd say. Go back as far as sat and throw in that "lucky" 26.0 winner and you are in profit. ( I did have a PM telling me that without the few lucky winners that I would have nothing but losers. How do you answer that lol )Go back right to the start of this thread ( I dont bother keeping running total now anymore as too much trouble ) but total profit will be in around the 20 to 22% margin for between 400 and 500 bets. If the system didn't work then I'd probably be at work now. Instead sipping coffee 2 doors up from a Willy shop, biding my time until he drops his pants. Same place as yesterday cause after a stinker of a day he will greet me with open arms and a smile. He may win again today but I know that cause I am the right side of the odds then it is only a matter of time before I wipe that smile off his face.
If you looking to know what your profit margin from a system is then you need min of 1000 before you can go saying you have an edge or you can start planning early retirement. As a rule of thumb a good estimate is 100 x Avg odds of your selections will get you 95% certainty that you are within 5% of your true profit/loss margin. So avg odds of 30 then you need mini of 3,000 selections before you know where you stand. I have just over 16,000 in my database so happy enough with stats so far to keep going after these nags.

Thanks for the reply. Best of luck with it and Ill follow with interest

mayoman1973

NR doesn't help
Heres another one anyways
Cheltenham 16:10 Oldgrangewood Bet 365 @ 23.00

mayoman1973

Cheltenham 16:10 Ultragold Bet 365 @ 81.00

mayoman1973

Shanahan turn still good to take at 67.0 in 16:10

mayoman1973

Willy still smiling .... Cant say the same for Paddy though with 23.0 placer and 15.0 winner  double he will need to cough up for

Sgt Pepper 64

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Cheltenham 15:30 Wholestone Bet 365 @ 23.00

well done on this and the winner, but I had this one myself, and the best price I could get last night was 17 and it didnt go up??

now you have 2 bets on the same horse, but diff bookies
Shanahans Turn is 51 on bet365 and 50-1 betfair???

balko was 8-1 so how did you get 15.0?


Today 09:55
mayoman1973 Cheltenham 16:10 Shanahans Turn BetfairSportsbook @ 67.00
Today 10:05
mayoman1973 nice ew double for taking with snow falcon and shanahans turn , 23.0, 67.0 on 365 now.

mayoman1973

dawn shadow @ 81.0 in the 16:50

mayoman1973

dawn shadow @ 81.0 in the 16:50

mayoman1973

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Cheltenham  15:30 Wholestone  Bet 365 @ 23.00

well done on this and the winner, but I had this one myself, and the best price I could get last night was 17 and it didnt go up??

now you have 2 bets on the same horse, but diff bookies
Shanahans Turn is 51 on bet365 and 50-1 betfair???

balko was 8-1 so how did you get 15.0?


Today 09:55
mayoman1973 Cheltenham 16:10 Shanahans Turn BetfairSportsbook @ 67.00
Today 10:05
mayoman1973 nice ew double for taking with snow falcon and shanahans turn , 23.0, 67.0 on 365 now.

First bookie that matches the price I'll add it but that doesn't mean price is not available at other books.  Some of the time better price might be available at some other book but you moving into arb territory then and thats not good for life expectancy of an account.  I try to get at least 3 or 4 mths out of an account.  Most of these I post will I will have wrapped up in doubles trebles, patents etc on as many books as I can get with the sole aim being as much ££ as I can get on without making it look too obvious.  If you think multiples are only good for a bookie and not a punter then that is a myth. If you have value ( however small ) in a each of 2 or more bets then you wrap them in as many combos as you can and hammer em.

Sgt Pepper 64

mayoman1973 wrote: »

First bookie that matches the price I'll add it but that doesn't mean price is not available at other books.  Some of the time better price might be available at some other book but you moving into arb territory then and thats not good for life expectancy of an account.  I try to get at least 3 or 4 mths out of an account.  Most of these I post will I will have wrapped up in doubles trebles, patents etc on as many books as I can get with the sole aim being as much ££ as I can get on without making it look too obvious.  If you think multiples are only good for a bookie and not a punter then that is a myth. If you have value ( however small ) in a each of 2 or more bets then you wrap them in as many combos as you can and hammer em.

i place mine the night before and use the best price trackers but kings odyssey never went over 16-1 and thats what i got last night

mayoman1973

How did I get 15.0 on Balko Des Flos?
I posted it around 9:30am this morn.
Here is the price history from odds checker
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/14:50/winner/bet-history/balko-des-flos

10:26am Paddy was still giving 15.0
15.0 was available on 365 until well after 12 noon

There are two types of punters in this world , fast ones and poor ones

rizzee

Stuck a few quid EW on Dawn Shadow. You got me winners in 3 out of 4 races today, thanks very much.

mayoman1973

As for them price trackers. Make sure you not using them on same PC as you betting from. And if you not paying for the service then its waste of time, you need live data.

Sgt Pepper 64

mayoman1973 wrote: »

As for them price trackers. Make sure you not using them on same PC as you betting from. And if you not paying for the service then its waste of time, you need live data.

never pay for any betting service especially tips!

mayoman1973

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

mayoman1973 wrote: »

As for them price trackers.  Make sure you not using them on same PC as you betting from.  And if you not paying for the service then its waste of time,  you need live data.

never pay for any betting service especially tips!

lol, true.  If someone has to charge for their tips then question must be asked why they cant make ££ from them themselves.  However information is money and only if it is up to date.  And you can only get that by putting your hand in your pocket

mayoman1973

17:30,  sugar baron bfsb @ 13.0

mayoman1973

Baaaaadddd day.  Dont think did too bad with the ones on the forum here , maybe a small profit,  but with the ones I did on top of these ( The really 'high value' ones ) just tanked. Need a good rub of variance tomorrow or will be dining down in the local soup kitchen. Not looking to beat the odds ( as that is impossible ) just to get level with them. Dont think I posted 'young master' in the 5:30 but had the kids college fund on em.....      FFS.   
Heres one for tomorrow..  Close to being an arb now so thread carefully
Cheltenham 13:30     Sayo          Bet 365     51.00

mayoman1973

Cheltenham 13:30     Gumball    @     67.00

mayoman1973

Cheltenham 13:30     Saldier          Coral     17.00

mayoman1973

Cheltenham 13:30     Sussex Ranger         Bet 365  @   29.00

mayoman1973

Sayo is still good at 51.0  but note 365 are paying 1/4 the odds on the place,  Paddy and willy only paying 1/5.  He still good value to do with the latter two but obviously 365 is first port of call

mayoman1973

Cheltenham 13:30     Farclas        Bet 365     9.00

mayoman1973

in short this 13:30 is looking like any nag bar the fav.  Have layed him at 2.20 but if you can pick any other with 365 ew then best option to back em.

mayoman1973

Cheltenham 13:30     Redicean        Bet 365  @   8.00

mayoman1973

sayo an gumball 51 and 67 respectively,  best value nags with 365 at min

mayoman1973

Cheltenham 17:30     Vaniteux          Bet 365   @ ; 23.00

mayoman1973

good one to finish with ... Sometimes the hot fav wins,  sometimes he doesn't.  Hope ye got on either sayo or farclas.
7 out of 8 nags backed ... 14 pts staked.  About 28pts won there.  Probs pulls me just north of break even for cheltenham 2018.   Enjoy Paddys and the few quid won just there    Now heading cross the pond for the rugby ... if only that was as easy to call

Sgt Pepper 64

mayoman1973 wrote: »

in short this 13:30 is looking like any nag bar the fav.  Have layed him at 2.20 but if you can pick any other with 365 ew then best option to back em.

well done fella, i had it as a contest between the two top Irish so of course Farclas was easy to pick as his only runner

nice place on sayo, and yes good lay on the fave