Why would anyone give away good tips.

DriveSkill

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Reckon the num of tips at this stage is over the 400 mark. Still small numbers. In around the 20% mark profit. Any one begs to differ then only do so after you check them all. When a 51.0 or 67.0 winner comes in it doesn't get me any more or less excited than a 5.0 shot that doesn't even place. £10ew on a 4.0 winner means just as much to me as £50 ew on a 51.0 winner because it reinforces the predicted value that my calculations saw in a price. In all cases the bets had between 15 and 25% value to them. So when I place a £50 ew bet on any nag regardless of the result, I count that as £20 earned because the average underlying value in the bet is around the 20% mark. The success of a days betting in my case is not measured by the amount I win but rather by the amount I stake because I know my profit will be a % of my stake when I tally up a sample of between 250 and 500 bets. If you are using less than 100 bets to determine the profitability or otherwise of a system then you are wasting your time. You need data, results and lots of them. For each bet I make I also record a random one from the same race in my spreadsheet. This is used as control so I can satisfy myself that my returns are better than random chance. So for the 15000+ selections I have so far, I have another 15,000 of randomly selected ones. And indeed, 15,000 random selections show a nice -6% loss. This is what I want to see. You need to be able to predict losses as well as predict a profit to be confident that you have an edge and that your data and calculations are up to scratch. And as for beating the odds, you can never do that. !! Thats what they call gambling. Hoping for something to happen. These picks just highlight value. I don't hope for a profit. I expect a profit and I get a profit.

Thanks for the info and btw I wasn’t actually complaining in my previous post :-) appreciate you taking the time to post your recommendations.

mayoman1973

15:15 hereford, mastertradesman 26.0 and Lygon rock 4.50, laddys an 365

Sgt Pepper 64

mayoman1973 wrote: »

15:15 hereford, mastertradesman 26.0 and Lygon rock 4.50, laddys an 365

i agree with mastertradesman

Im also doing these, anything 6-1 and over is e/w

low price singles and double
hereford 3:45 easter in paris....5-1
southwell 4:30 fieldsman 5-1

low price patent
2:30 southwell kion 15/8
2:45 hereford geordie des champs 15/8
5:40 newcastle volpone jelois 5/2

all above be in a lucky as well


hereford
2:15 don herbager 11-1
3:15 master tradesman 25-1
4:15 little millie 16-1\ frankn fair 10-1
4:45 safe harbour 11-1

mayoman1973

Newcastle 19:40 Archive Paddy Power @ 26.00

PopePalpatine

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Newcastle 19:40 Archive Paddy Power @ 26.00

Gone to 19.0 already, although BV still had 26.0.

mayoman1973

Lygon rock @ 4.33 on 365 is good to take

Sgt Pepper 64

omg, i am really really sorry, in the 4:15 and I know I am going to get flamed for this, i originally had 3 picks, but I dropped one from my posting because I felt I was taking the piss with 3 picks....so guess which one I dropped?

mayoman1973

Wincanton 17:15 Dont Be Robin Bet 365 13.00

mayoman1973

Wincanton 17:15 Cloudy Glen and Dont be robin, 3.00 and 13.0 respectively

mayoman1973

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

omg, i am really really sorry, in the 4:15 and I know I am going to get flamed for this, i originally had 3 picks, but I dropped one from my posting because I felt I was taking the piss with 3 picks....so guess which one I dropped?

Most people don't think you can make money backing 2+ horses in a race. Then again most people dont make money at this gambling business. If you think 4 horses in a race have value at a given price then they have value at that price. The price will already allow for ( Or at least should ) the different probabilities of all the other horses in the race winning/placing and so when you determine what is a fair price for HorseA then that price is that price. Eg. I I have 4 people working for me putting bets on when I give them a tip and all put £100 down for each tip. None of them are aware of the other 3 people. Over the course of time I have identified 8000 different races ( 3,500 so far in my stats ) where there are 4 or more over priced horses and I give each person a different tip from the same race. After the 8000 races are done I expect each person to show the same profit +/- one or 2%. How can it possibly make any difference the fact that there are 4 tips in the same race. Even in race where there is only 3 places there may still be 5 horses who are value at a given price. What, you say? Best case is you are going to have at least 2 of those horses who wont even place. Worst case is you have 5 outright losers. True, but that's not how probabilities work. Value is value.

mayoman1973

Newcastle 18:45 Newmarket Warrior William Hill 11.00

mayoman1973

Warwick 14:10 Ocean Cove o Bet 365 @ 8.50

Sgt Pepper 64

wolves
2:50 dors law 12-1...pretty much guaranteed place money (famous last words)
3:25 filament of gold 8-1..previous winner, jo gordon up \ nicky baby 9-1. once had a gf called nicky, she was a nag n all
4pm mouchee 11/2 sds up and this has won before CD and a zebedee horse
5:05 hangman jury 66-1 \ spryt 20-1

wincanton
2pm caroles vigilante 9-1 been doing ok and i like the name, oh yeah noel fehily uptop
3:05 foxy act 22-1, patchy but won last year..plus foxy right? \ shes gina 6-1
3:40 bramble brook 12-1
4:15 general girling 25-1 \ sonoftheking 12-1
5:15 dublin indemity 22-1

good luck all

mayoman1973

Foxy act still flappin about at 23.0 with some smaller books but can take 21.0 for em though

mayoman1973

17:15 Mahler's first 51.0

mayoman1973

14:40 Captain Jack pp 15.0

mayoman1973

Warwick 14:40 Taking A Chance Bet 365 41.00

mayoman1973

Dundalk 18:00 Very Smart Bet 365 29.00

mayoman1973

Dundalk 18:00 Debatable @ 15.00

mayoman1973

Dundalk 18:00 Zeb City Paddy Power 17.00

mayoman1973

Dundalk 18:00 Debatable @ 15.00 get on with Willy now ...............

mayoman1973

Wincanton 17:15 Black Anthem b365 @ 41.00

mayoman1973

Dundalk 18:00 View The Bay Bet 365 @ 51.00

Sgt Pepper 64

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

wolves
2:50 dors law 12-1...pretty much guaranteed place money (famous last words)
3:25 filament of gold 8-1..previous winner, jo gordon up \ nicky baby 9-1. once had a gf called nicky, she was a nag n all
4pm mouchee 11/2 sds up and this has won before CD and a zebedee horse
5:05 hangman jury 66-1 \ spryt 20-1

wincanton
2pm caroles vigilante 9-1 been doing ok and i like the name, oh yeah noel fehily uptop
3:05 foxy act 22-1, patchy but won last year..plus foxy right? \ shes gina 6-1
3:40 bramble brook 12-1
4:15 general girling 25-1 \ sonoftheking 12-1
5:15 dublin indemity 22-1

good luck all

4:15 general girling 25-1
shes gina 6-1
2 places, but one was 25-1 so ill take it and rn

Sgt Pepper 64

4:55 tow
riddlestown 14-1

mayoman1973

God Damm willy and his shops.  Stopped outside a willy shop yesterday and noticed that newmarket nag was still showing up at 11.0 and was set to drop in with few bob on em and saw I had one or two friends that still had willy boosts left online that got me 12.0 so hit them. That took me maybe 2  min to do Then went across to shop and slip done up and price dropped to 9.0 so I put a line through it and picked another one that was showing value in the 18:00.  Well up on willy over all online but  this run I on lately with the shops is killing me.

Edit ... of course "Few bob" being code for as much as I thought they would take without that dreaded phone call to the head office

mayoman1973

Chelmsford City 14:55 Queen Of Connaught Bet 365 @ 34.00

mayoman1973

Wolverhampton 18:45 Grecian Spirit @ 6.50

mayoman1973

Wetherby 16:15 Brascoe @ 26.00

mayoman1973

Wetherby 16:15 Rowdy Robin Bet 365 19.00