Why would anyone give away good tips.

mayoman1973

Clonmel 14:40 Moonlight Escape Bet 365 @ 3.00

mayoman1973

Clonmel 14:10 Famous Day Bet 365 @ 51.00

mayoman1973

Clonmel 14:10 Cluan Dara Bet 365 @ 15.00

mayoman1973

Clonmel 14:40 Love N Peace Paddy @ 51.0
Hes moving out but this is still good price

mayoman1973

15.0 place and 8.0 winner and still Willy survives. Just can't nail one of these in a willy shop. But its a long road with out a turn and Willy owes me lot of £££

clevtrev

Willy very rarely offers best price - B365, BF and PP are generally offering better prices and B365 are great for the free bets although Im sure Mayoman doesnt get anything free off the bookies anymore!

mayoman1973

clevtrev wrote: »

Willy very rarely offers best price - B365, BF and PP are generally offering better prices and B365 are great for the free bets although Im sure Mayoman doesnt get anything free off the bookies anymore!

You bet your a$$ I have the hand out for the free stuff. £50 freebet each day in cheltenham with 365 and 15 friends sucking on that teat = value to the tune of 15 x £35. approx £500 a day for 4 days. Who be turning that down? Granted the freebet is just thrown on some nag above 6.0 at random in the hope he comes in. Willy not found wanting in Cheltenham either, with his winning bonus boost. All counts towards the bottom line.
Lining troops up for the Grand National and the £125 freebet offer... Bingo, thats the real gravy train, backing 3/4 of the field with value bets, freebets etc all over the shop its my second Christmas.
And if they make same mistake as last year then gubbed accounts got the freebets as well. Lot of crippled accounts be wheeled out for that day I tell you for the party.

mayoman1973

Haydock 16:55 Champagne George laddys @ 6.50

mayoman1973

Haydock 16:55 Star Of Namibia 34.00

mayoman1973

Chepstow 15:25 Buster Moon Bet 365 @ 26.00

mayoman1973

Limerick 16:50 Sir Bob Bet 365 17.00

mayoman1973

Golan cloud 15:40 cork bet365 @ 41.0

mayoman1973

Same race n bookie. Robin on the hill 41.0

mayoman1973

Kempton 20:15 Intermodal Paddy Power @ 67.00

mayoman1973

Kempton 18:45 Spirit Of Epsom William Hill @ 67.00

mayoman1973

Intermodal just gone to 51.0 but Paddy was walkin about with the trousers down for 20min there , so no excuses if not on it .... Obviously no guarantees in this game but that was a very good price while it was there

mayoman1973

sedgfield 16:00 Goliath Bet365 @ 26.0

mayoman1973

Phanton Isle 16:00 Goliath Bet365 @ 34.0

mayoman1973

Navan 16:40 Flemenstorm Paddy Power 15.00

mayoman1973

15:35 Gabriel, Kings gift, Dolphin vista, Bet365 29.0, 51.0 and 23.0 respectively

mayoman1973

Asitsohappens 15:20 WH 21.0

mayoman1973

15:35 via via, Bet365 34.0

mayoman1973

Thurles 16:30     Jaime Sommers        Bet 365     26.00

mayoman1973

cant buy a win today,  ye dont want to know how many I had in that 15:15 and only a scrawny 11.0 winner to show for it

mayoman1973

puskin museum 8:15 wh @ 6.50

mayoman1973

Naas 16:50     Ontheiflist         William Hill   @ ; 26.00

clevtrev

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Naas 16:50     Ontheiflist         William Hill   @ ; 26.00

in to 19s now

mayoman1973

Taunton 14:50 North West Wind Bet 365 @ 23.00

DriveSkill

I stumbled on this thread about a week ago and thought it was a great think, decent enough returns in the first few days but luck seems to have deserted recently :-)

Thanks anyway for the tips, hopefully it will turn around !!

mayoman1973

Reckon the num of tips at this stage is over the 400 mark. Still small numbers. In around the 20% mark profit. Any one begs to differ then only do so after you check them all. When a 51.0 or 67.0 winner comes in it doesn't get me any more or less excited than a 5.0 shot that doesn't even place. £10ew on a 4.0 winner means just as much to me as £50 ew on a 51.0 winner because it reinforces the predicted value that my calculations saw in a price. In all cases the bets had between 15 and 25% value to them. So when I place a £50 ew bet on any nag regardless of the result, I count that as £20 earned because the average underlying value in the bet is around the 20% mark. The success of a days betting in my case is not measured by the amount I win but rather by the amount I stake because I know my profit will be a % of my stake when I tally up a sample of between 250 and 500 bets. If you are using less than 100 bets to determine the profitability or otherwise of a system then you are wasting your time. You need data, results and lots of them. For each bet I make I also record a random one from the same race in my spreadsheet. This is used as control so I can satisfy myself that my returns are better than random chance. So for the 15000+ selections I have so far, I have another 15,000 of randomly selected ones. And indeed, 15,000 random selections show a nice -6% loss. This is what I want to see. You need to be able to predict losses as well as predict a profit to be confident that you have an edge and that your data and calculations are up to scratch. And as for beating the odds, you can never do that. !! Thats what they call gambling. Hoping for something to happen. These picks just highlight value. I don't hope for a profit. I expect a profit and I get a profit.