Winter 2017-18: Discussion

George Sunsnow

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Just wondering at what point we could have a Beast from the East thread for next week?
Maybe one of the mods could answer? Thanks so much!

Please No thread until the easterly is nailed
It’s NOT at the moment
If things go to plan maybe the end of next week

beefburrito

It's now Friday and in the same place over the valley there's been lying hail and frost in the same place for a good few days.

My dad every winter since I can remember,talks about the winter of 1963 where there's been snow on the ground from December until March.

He was living in North Kerry back in 1963, the feale river you could walk on it it was frozen over,actually there's a clip on YouTube of locals walking on the river in 63 in Listowel.

Although my dads house was more on the Brosna Mountcollins direction.

I'm sure there must be parts of Ireland where it's been white now for a few weeks.

Maybe metaphorically he means the snow was there until March,meaning intermittently it was snowing in and off.

George Sunsnow

Mountain tops have been white in Wicklow most of the winter

Context,fields here near Arklow just two miles from the Irish Sea were white from the night of nov 27th 2010 to the morning of December 27th 2010
One month continuous snow cover
The milder week in the middle of that spell wasn’t fit to remove the cover and of course it got replenished big time after that

I have no recollection of 63 but I know from my father that the lane down to the farm was filled hedge to hedge in one of the blizzards so six foot deep
That’s the power of proper easterlies
That was January though

I am not a fan of march snowfalls
But then I thought November ones couldn’t happen either
There are always firsts *

* 1947 of course would have seen significant March snow but older folk here near sea level in Arklow that remember that will tell you 2010 was the only time they saw complete snow on the ground for a full month uninterupted

Gonzo

still a few well sheltered gardens covered in snow from yesterday. Everywhere else the snow is gone.


All in all this winter we've had about 8 days with lying snow, however none of those days include a day where the entire countryside is covered in snow, more just sheltered patches with snow lasting 24-36 hours.

JCX BXC

Latest Met Eireann outlook:

Met Eireann wrote:

Outlook: There is a high degree of uncertainty in the outlook. At present the most likely solution is for high pressure to build over Ireland bringing a spell of dry weather with frosty nights and cold, bright days.

vistafinder

That would do fine.

No interest in an easterly from now on.

Some nice spring days from now on please.

sryanbruen

vistafinder wrote: »

That would do fine.

No interest in an easterly from now on.

Some nice spring days from now on please.

An easterly brought the very good first two weeks of May last year.

sryanbruen

UKMO still going for cold, but still also says the chance of milder unsettled weather for us here to the west.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Feb 2018 to Friday 2 Mar 2018:
Dry, but often bright weather is likely across the UK throughout the second half of the week, with overnight frosts becoming widespread. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will turn colder by the end of the week and into the following week, as the wind tends to turn east or southeasterly in direction. Wintry showers may develop, with the potential for some significant snowfalls, most likely focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west and northwest.

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Mar 2018 to Saturday 17 Mar 2018:
In the beginning of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds developing, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest. As we head further into March there are indications that it may become more changeable and less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK.

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/964525400637526016

sryanbruen

ECM have said it themselves.

https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/964538101354950656

George Sunsnow

Does the hashtag suggest that they are suggesting the ssw has something to do with a hole in the ozone layer ?

*puzzled*

Periscal

I have february 2012 feeling about this potential cold spell, where SE England might benefit but we will be too far west under high preasure, mostly because all we can manage since 2013 march is MLB and persistant +NAO despite some favourable teleconections, I doubt this will buckle the trend in time for low lying snow in Eastern Ireland before winter is over, what will probably happen is that Greenland vortex will vacate mid march and we will have a really cold start to spring with very dull chilly days,no thank you.

This winter hasn't had many long lasting mild periods but also the cold snaps were all 24-36hrs at most, which meant that all fallen snow melted the next day, we had 3 or 4 occasions of that pattern here in West Wicklow, strangely even winters from 2014 to 2017 had at least one longer lasting lying snow period,this one has been the worst of all.

I live on the foothills of Wicklow Gap and Tonelagee and even there was very little snow to speak of, just very light dustings in shaded locations, we were able to go up near Tonelagee with kids previous winters for some sledging but this year not a hope, the cold snaps were all from north westerlies where we benefit more from direct polar westerlies with less land track showers stay in tact.

It is my last winter here in West Wicklow after 13 years in Ireland and we will be moving back to Slovakia in the summer, there I can expect 4 seasons finally and 60-90 days of lying snow in winters and more days with frost, skating on frozen lakes,cross-country skiing,alpine skiing, I will get my winter fix there, I would just love one more cold spell lasting for a week with lying snow for the atmosphere next two weeks if miracle happens.but I doubt it. JS

sryanbruen

1962 had an extremely cold March, the coldest on record in some places to this day - see the upper air temperature charts from that month I posted in the Irish Weather Statistics thread today. February had laid the ground work towards the end for what was going to happen in March. I'd highly doubt we'd see a crazy cold March like that this year, especially coming 5 years after the coldest March since 1962 and 1892 for the CET (March 2013) but with weather, you should never say never. Anything is a possibility.

The similarities between 1961/62 are quite interesting in the Northern Hemisphere. This was one of the Winters I had to focus on when making the Winter forecast back in the Autumn.

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/964559980992106496

I had predicted a cold March since December, courtesy of the above reason and ENSO. My ENSO analogue of Marches following Weak La Nina Winters (which were preceded by Weak La Nina Winters also) showed a strong signal for blocking up to the north and the Polar Jet on a southerly track through the Mediterranean.

These are my 2018 predictions. They are based on previous years' conditions and see if I feel Mother Nature will balance things out like how we've had three consecutive dry Octobers, more than likely it's going to be a wet one next, ENSO and solar activity. Not to mention my optimism in some of it.

January - Cold and wet. Potentially snowy.
February - Mild overall but with a lot of variation. Rather wet and sunny.
March - Cold and rather dull but dry.
April - Cool, wet and rather sunny.
May - Dull, cool and dry. Similar to May 1991 but not nearly as dry.
June - Cold and wet. Dull too.
July - Hot with the chance of thundery downpours. Not all that sunny.
August - Hot again but very sunny and dry.
September - Mild, sunny and dry at first but becoming wet.
October - Cold, very wet and sunny.
November - Close to average sunshine and temperature. Dry also.
December - Cool, rather wet and dull.

I've began 2018 with mixed results on my predictions. I had gotten the wet part of January correct but it wasn't cold. February I've gotten wrong so far with the exception of it being sunny.

EDIT: 1961/62 isn't far off either from the stage of the solar cycle we're currently at.

sryanbruen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Does the hashtag suggest that they are suggesting the ssw has something to do with a hole in the ozone layer ?

*puzzled*

I ignored that part 'cause I don't have much knowledge on the subject :P.

BLIZZARD7

Day 4 ECM - Beautiful!

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Day 4 ECM - Beautiful!

And.... back to model watching I go after a one day break - if you can even call it a break .

Thank god I was wrong and that the ECM hasn't backtracked, -10c isotherm into England by Wednesday.

gabeeg

Sryan, any more details on the winter of 61/62?

I'm all in at this stage. It looks nailed on.

Periscal

The winters in 60's temperature wise resembled little ice age, almost persistent -NAO for the whole decade, 7 out of 10 winters were very much below average in central Europe, in February 1963 Danube froze all the way from Vienna to Black Sea and also right across in Bratislava, never happened since, the head of Slovakian national weather agency Pavel Matejovic published a book (283 pages) about winters in Europe and Slovakia between years 1500-2017 in detail, it is a great read with great synoptic analysis on various severe weather events, I will link the whole book below, the abstract is in English also and there are very nice graphics within, it's great read for all the coldies and lovers of historical weather stats.
If you particularly like some part of the book I can provide some quick translation

http://www.nun.sk/zima_historia.htm

gabeeg

Periscal wrote: »

The winters in 60's temperature wise resembled little ice age, almost persistent -NAO for the whole decade, 7 out of 10 winters were very much below average in central Europe, in February 1963 Danube froze all the way from Vienna to Black Sea and also right across in Bratislava, never happened since, the head of Slovakian national weather agency Pavel Matejovic published a book (283 pages) about winters in Europe and Slovakia between years 1500-2017 in detail, it is a great read with great synoptic analysis on various severe weather events, I will link the whole book below, the abstract is in English also and there are very nice graphics within, it's great read for all the coldies and lovers of historical weather stats.
If you particularly like some part of the book I can provide some quick translation

http://www.nun.sk/zima_historia.htm

Cheers dude. I'm well aware of 63 of course, but I was wondering if 63 had clouded memories of a memorable event in 62.

Periscal

gabeeg wrote: »

Cheers dude. I'm well aware of 63 of course, but I was wondering if 63 had faded clouded memories of a memorable event in 62.

I dont know gabeeg, but the persistant scale of -NAO must have had a lot to do with all the severe spells in 60's, it will be great to know the reason for such a long term -NAO setup, I do not have a clue why that happened, as NAO flipped to mainly positives in later decades

snowstorm445

The latest ECM certainly is excellent, and its good to see the setup roughly in place by the middle of next week, but after the trauma of easterly-chasing over the years I refuse to celebrate until this gets within 48 hrs. The failure rate for these things is just so high. :mad:

sryanbruen

gabeeg wrote: »

Sryan, any more details on the winter of 61/62?

I'm all in at this stage. It looks nailed on.

Apart from the March of 1962 which was absolutely amazing without a doubt, the Winter itself wasn't remarkable. It gave a few little teasers for what 1962-63 would bring though like the cold snaps and snowy outbreaks much like 2017-18 here, or 2008-09 before 2009-10 & 2010-11. Saying that, December and January 1961/62 were quite cold with IMTs of 3.9 and 4.9 respectively (-1.7c below the average and -0.6c below the average respectively). Those anomalies are with the 1981-2010 averages. February 1962 was fairly mild at 5.6c, +0.3c above the 1981-2010 average. The CET was only -0.2c below the 1981-2010 average for Winter 1961-62 (doesn't count March) proving my point of it being only a teaser.

No SSW had occurred in 1961-62, it was one of the only few seasons to do so in a decade where SSW occurred quite frequently.

The season had a westerly QBO too so any cold that did try to get going did struggle from time to time with the enhanced zonal winds - no SSW to compensate or help it. But the negative NAO and AO did compensate and brought the cold in December, January and especially March. The negative PDO could have also helped - the lower solar activity might have helped as well (a mean sunspot number of 61.2). ENSO was neutral - there are some quite cold Winters with ENSO neutral but there are far far far too many exceptions to this as there have been as equally mild Winters with it.

Here's how Winter 1961-62 looks like on a 500mb height anomaly reanalysis:



This is March 1962's one.



This is March 2013's one just for comparison.



Last but not least, here's my ENSO March analogue I spoke about.

sryanbruen

Coincidentally enough, this guy from London just posted an article on the cold spell of February/March 1962 when we start talking about it. It's obviously from the perspective of London or the UK but it's very interesting.

https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/the-cold-spell-of-february-march-1962/

gabeeg

Cheers Sryan

sryanbruen

I almost forgot.

Stratosphere charts updated to the 15th February.

highdef

beefburrito wrote: »

Supposed to happen again lol

I'd like to see your source of information that there will be another SSW

beefburrito

highdef wrote: »

I'd like to see your source of information that there will be another SSW

Sometimes the UK weather predictions pop up on Google...

So I clicked on one and it was explaining about the stratospheric warming.

It said around 30 miles up or something the atmosphere gets really warm and really cold air is pushed down.

I could never really get my head around it,but slowly but surely I'm starting to understand the science in it.

Anyhow this stratospheric warming coming next is a sure thing, for the UK anyhow...

Set in stone I think.

sryanbruen

beefburrito wrote: »

Sometimes the UK weather predictions pop up on Google...

So I clicked on one and it was explaining about the stratospheric warming.

It said around 30 miles up or something the atmosphere gets really warm and really cold air is pushed down.

I could never really get my head around it,but slowly but surely I'm starting to understand the science in it.

Anyhow this stratospheric warming coming next is a sure thing, for the UK anyhow...

Set in stone I think.

It has already happened and is currently taking place still too :P.

You're a bit late to the party beefburrito.

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann update,outlook

The weather will turn progressively colder towards midweek, as high pressure builds over Ireland. A northeast airflow will develop on Tuesday bringing a dry day other than A few showers to areas near Irish Sea coasts. A sharp frost will form widely on Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be a cold dry day with light winds but good sunny spells can be expected. Frost will be widespread early and late.

Present suggestions are for mainly dry and settled weather to continue for the second half of the week. It will be cold with recurring frosty nights, but some sunshine is expected by day and winds will be light.

km79

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met Eireann update,outlook

The weather will turn progressively colder towards midweek, as high pressure builds over Ireland. A northeast airflow will develop on Tuesday bringing a dry day other than A few showers to areas near Irish Sea coasts. A sharp frost will form widely on Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be a cold dry day with light winds but good sunny spells can be expected. Frost will be widespread early and late.

Present suggestions are for mainly dry and settled weather to continue for the second half of the week. It will be cold with recurring frosty nights, but some sunshine is expected by day and winds will be light.

Dry and settled
That’ll do pig
That’ll do