Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Oscar Bravo

BBC 4 tonight 9pm "from ice to fire explores the incredible science of cold and how it has shaped our planet"
10pm Wild weather - wind
11pm the history of weather forecasting

sryanbruen

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

BBC 4 tonight 9pm "from ice to fire explores the incredible science of cold and how it has shaped our planet"
10pm Wild weather - wind
11pm the history of weather forecasting

Thanks for letting me know Oscar!

George Sunsnow

U.K. met office outlook has changed slightly
It now says

Temperatures will be around average for the time of year to begin. However, it will turn much colder by the end of the week and into the following week, as the wind tends to turn east or southeasterly in direction. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west.

The southeasterly wind element is new as is the some milder unsettled weather in the west ( us basically )
There’s a whiff of 2012 about this update

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

U.K. met office outlook has changed slightly
It now says

Temperatures will be around average for the time of year to begin. However, it will turn much colder by the end of the week and into the following week, as the wind tends to turn east or southeasterly in direction. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west.

The southeasterly wind element is new as is the some milder unsettled weather in the west ( us basically )
There’s a whiff of 2012 about this update

Indeed. This could still go the way of many past failed easterlies. It would be a sickner if the ECM is leading the way on this, given its poor performance of late.

JCX BXC

Mixed sleet and snow shower here in West Clare, been mainly hail and rain last night and today.

sryanbruen

Little changes in the stratosphere today at both levels, just a small spike down at 30hPa and that's it. Staying very warm.





See for yourself some of the very high stratosphere temperatures here, rather balmy!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-1.12,85.92,373/loc=-136.451,86.675

I haven't posted the model charts in about a week now. These are the GFS 12z charts for Friday next week and the very end of the run.

Still very warm in the stratosphere even by the 23rd, between -20 and -40 over much of Greenland and northern Canada. This is very impressive for the stratosphere how the warmth holds on this long because you can't sustain those kinds of temperatures for very long.



And the end of the run..... where's the Polar Vortex gone?

pad199207

nacho libre wrote: »

Indeed. This could still go the way of many past failed easterlies. It would be a sickner if the ECM is leading the way on this, given its poor performance of late.

Yep an increasing number of people now thinking the ECM is the formhorse and I’m one of them.

Too many people sucked into thinking that a SSW event automatically means significant cold for this part of Europe.

nacho libre

Syran, i think you will find this post from Quicksilver1989 interesting:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89342-model-output-discussion-post-ssw-will-it-turn-cold/?do=findComment&comment=3755167

km79

Jesus the wind in Edinburgh would cut ya in two
Baltic

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Syran, i think you will find this post from Quicksilver1989 interesting:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89342-model-output-discussion-post-ssw-will-it-turn-cold/?do=findComment&comment=3755167

See, the thing that always pushes me off of believing the cold blob in the Atlantic (though it is an ugly fecker to look at) is the cause for it is how the 80s was like. Look at this example from May 1985 which was then followed by an extraordinary cold November and February. Far from a tripole there and instead, just a very cold Atlantic, especially over towards Newfoundland.

I guess you could give the argument that this was during the negative phase of the AMO though.

I do think he's incorrect on some information though like saying it's "impossible" to get cold in this kind of setup. For example, Winter 1990-91 was during a time of high solar activity, it was around solar maximum. The NAO was positive during much of the season including February 1991. The AO was positive too. It had a SSW to compensate in January 1991 however.

Whilst yes it is interesting, I do disagree with some of his points. This has been the coldest Winter since 2014-15 for some and in parts of Scotland, it has been the coldest Winter since 2010-11 after all. Scotland would ya believe had a few ice days in January.

I have to admit this, I am a bit downed myself on the UKMO forecast update today.

nacho libre

I have to say M.T. Craniums winter forecast was spot on when you think about it. Some people have seen more snow this winter than they normally would. Back home they've had snow on the ground on seven different occasions. And mountainy man has had so much snow he seems to be sick of snow now:mad: :pac:

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

I have to say M.T. Craniums winter forecast was spot on when you think about it. Some people have seen more snow this winter than they normally would. Back home they've had snow on the ground on seven different occasions. And mountainy man has had so much snow he seems to be sick of snow now:mad: :pac:

I've had 8 days with at least one snowflake this Winter compared to 0 in 2016-17 (yes I didn't even get one on 12 January 2017), 2 in 2015-16, 2 in 2014-15 (which weren't even in Winter, they were Spring), 1 in 2013-14.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

See, the thing that always pushes me off of believing the cold blob in the Atlantic (though it is an ugly fecker to look at) is the cause for it is how the 80s was like. Look at this example from May 1985 which was then followed by an extraordinary cold November and February. Far from a tripole there and instead, just a very cold Atlantic, especially over towards the eastern seaboard of the US.

I guess you could give the argument that this was during the negative phase of the AMO though.

I do think he's incorrect on some information though like saying it's "impossible" to get cold in this kind of setup. For example, Winter 1990-91 was during a time of high solar activity, it was around solar maximum. The NAO was positive during much of the season including February 1991. The AO was positive too. It had a SSW to compensate in January 1991 however.

Whilst yes it is interesting, I do disagree with some of his points. This has been the coldest Winter since 2014-15 for some and in parts of Scotland, it has been the coldest Winter since 2010-11 after all. Scotland would ya believe had a few ice days in January.

I have to admit this, I am a bit downed myself on the UKMO forecast update today.

That's a very good point about February 1991. As you say Scotland, and us to a lesser extent, have had many cold outbreaks. On reflection his post was quite south east england oritentated, if you get me.
It is a bad update from the UKMO because it likely means only England will see continental cold, and even there the milder weather may shunt it back to the continent.
I hope we all get to see some dry snow before the end of the month, but i'm not very optimistic at this stage.

sryanbruen

This is what I'm trying to get at when I say it's never too late for snow in Spring.

Pangea

All white here again with a depth of heavy hailstones. Im getting used to the ground being white at this stage, twice today already and four or five times in the past week.

sryanbruen

I think a break from model watching for myself to focus on the Irish Weather Statistics thread is in order especially given the headache I've developed from it. Model watching isn't for the faint hearted as a friend of mine told me - he was certainly right.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

I think a break from model watching for myself to focus on the Irish Weather Statistics thread is in order especially given the headache I've developed from it. .

We both know that's not going to happen;)

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

We both know that's not going to happen;)

The European Crap Model shows an easterly, surprise surprise. Sorry I mean ECM!

Just watch tomorrow, other models will go towards it and the ECM will go the other way. I’m calling it. Not going to bother looking though cause I am taking a break!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

This is what I'm trying to get at when I say it's never too late for snow in Spring.

I had forgotten to say that this snow in April 2008 - March 2008 had some significant cold and snowfalls too - was preceded by a SSW in February that year - have a look at my SSW table a few pages back.

weatherfiend

Well it’s bloomin’ baltic in D18 this evening. Brought the dogs for a walk and the wind would cut through you like a knife. Temp is 3.2 but feels like -3

sideswipe

No snow here in Wicklow near sea level this winter. Was hoping for a nice easterly blast next week.... if it doesn’t transpire, feck it, roll on spring- a nice easterly in June and July would be nice too!

SeaBreezes

For those who need a laugh break, these are the models right now ;-)

https://www.facebook.com/foilarmsandhog/videos/10159951162890335/

JCX BXC

Cork airport reporting light snow and a temperature just below 0c at 23:30.

Soccarboy11

JCX BXC wrote: »

Cork airport reporting light snow and a temperature just below 0c at 23:30.

seeing as we had a mix of rain/snow down a bit lower at that time id say its right. Just looked out my window and saw the gritter truck going by! Didn't think it was meant to get that cold

George Sunsnow

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/964231795989467136


https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/964272599726481415

George Sunsnow

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/964241268279832581

beefburrito

All I'm hoping for at this stage is an easterly moderate breeze,so I can get some nice surfing conditions.

Snow would be a bonus, I'm living in the Burren,not far from the sea maybe, 15 minutes drive,but the valleys and commonage are very cold,as they are hidden from the westerly winds,well some of them anyways.

So hopefully soon it'll be surfs up....

South westerly for fishing,easterly or glassy conditions for surfing.

A few days of frost for fishing for flatfish and whiting...

The weather effects shore fishing too, I remember during the cold spell in 2010 fishing at night off the rocks along the flats near Ballyvaughan,and it was offshore no swell.
The whiting were everywhere,couldnt catch anything else.

Anyhow I know this is about the weather but I'm just mentioning how it effects the movement and behavior of fish etc

gabeeg

beefburrito wrote: »

All I'm hoping for at this stage is an easterly moderate breeze,so I can get some nice surfing conditions.

Snow would be a bonus, I'm living in the Burren,not far from the sea maybe, 15 minutes drive,but the valleys and commonage are very cold,as they are hidden from the westerly winds,well some of them anyways.

So hopefully soon it'll be surfs up....

South westerly for fishing,easterly or glassy conditions for surfing.

A few days of frost for fishing for flatfish and whiting...

The weather effects shore fishing too, I remember during the cold spell in 2010 fishing at night off the rocks along the flats near Ballyvaughan,and it was offshore no swell.
The whiting were everywhere,couldnt catch anything else.

Anyhow I know this is about the weather but I'm just mentioning how it effects the movement and behavior of fish etc

If you can find a model that outputs fish patterns, you're in the right thread

sideswipe

Yr.no showing easterly and snow for next weekend!!

Wine Goddess

Just wondering at what point we could have a Beast from the East thread for next week?
Maybe one of the mods could answer? Thanks so much!