Winter 2017-18: Discussion

MJohnston

De Bild wrote: »

Is there a fear that if posters on the thread don't fawn..maybe that word is a little strong.. don't overly praise M.T. that he will not do daily forecasts. He will say these people are so ungrateful why bother?

That's understandable.

But at the core of my questioning would be something like this..

Can MT be put on a par re. forecasting with Met UK? That is a serious question that i would be inclined to answer, no.

Of course not, in fact I'd be very sure that M.T. would very much enjoy some spirited disagreement on a scientific level - the majority of scientifically-minded people are like this, they welcome disagreement as it helps to broaden their views.

But this isn't spirited disagreement, it's just essentially mud-slinging, and that's why I personally dislike it. There's no room for debate, it's just someone asserting that they think your entire discussion is spoofery and waffling. That's so condescending, and literally leaves no possible approach to respectfully disagree, other than to ignore the poster. And the problem with that is that some posters continue to mud-sling until they are not ignored.

Oneiric 3

Bottom line is that M.T provides totally free forecasts on this forum (as he does on Irish Weather Online) and whether they be short range or long range forecasts, you get the full package. You'll note that M.T will spend time, unlike the vast majority of charlatans out there, explaining his mythology in great detail, which, given the amount of work he puts into a forecast to begin with, is quite incredible.

I've had the great pleasure of working with M.T 'behind the scenes' and trust me, he does not do anything by half. His databases, which he has many spent years compiling and building up, and which I have been privy to on a few occasions, are some of the most daunting databases I have ever encountered. What you see when you get a forecast on here is a very tided, concise, and easily digestible 'face' of the bigger picture in the background, so whether you agree with his methods and forecasts or not, I think we all owe him the respect he deserves.

Loughc

So what's the end of November looking like? As the weather is getting cold and scheduled to get quite cold again on Sunday, I imagine there'll be a pick up and we might see a mild end to November?

De Bild

MJohnston wrote: »

Of course not, in fact I'd be very sure that M.T. would very much enjoy some spirited disagreement on a scientific level - the majority of scientifically-minded people are like this, they welcome disagreement as it helps to broaden their views.

But this isn't spirited disagreement, it's just essentially mud-slinging, and that's why I personally dislike it. There's no room for debate, it's just someone asserting that they think your entire discussion is spoofery and waffling. That's so condescending, and literally leaves no possible approach to respectfully disagree, other than to ignore the poster. And the problem with that is that some posters continue to mud-sling until they are not ignored.

I am not one of those who say it's all waffle and spoof. As said earlier i expect science to progress in this area. I had questions re. MT's predictions vis a vis Met UK etc. His status on this site. Questioning of his predictions as opposed to others who use scientific method. Acceptance of questioning on this forum etc.

Oneric has just posted a very comprehensive post now on his attention to detail and methodology.

MJohnston

De Bild wrote: »

You are not reading the thread. I'm questioning the validity of one person's LRF over another. Not the right to LRF.

I would not say predicted well in advance. UK Met Office, Met Eireann, the US etc all knew at the same time. But MT can go public much more quickly on a forum like this. One could not appear on tv for example 8 days before Ophelia telling the public a red alert storm was on the way. Too much time for change of track etc and you could cause a national alarm. A very small percentage of the population follow a forum like this.

This is the core of it - this is a specialist Weather forum populated (usually) by only people who are experts, amateurs, or merely spectators who are trying to understand more.

Thus the public service responsibility that exists for an organisation like Met Office does not exist here, no need to simplify or dumb things down enough for a wide audience to understand it.

It also lets people talk about things in ways that are far less cautious than you might hear from ME, because they're discussing things among other "Weather fans" and don't need to worry about communicating uncertainty constantly.

So, I think most people here know and intrinsically understand the nature of forecast uncertainty, and their thanks and praise for M.T. are entirely about how open he is with his forecast methodology, how friendly he is as a poster, and how much he does try to explain things for those of us who are in the "interested spectator" category of poster. If he's "put on a pedestal" it's because he's an excellent poster, not because anyone thinks that his predictions are infallible or unquestionable.

Bluntly and conversely, it's also really hard to value the input of someone who will only contribute denials and disbeliefs, without any displayed willingness to listen to debate. (and I don't mean you here, I think you've been very reasonable and willing to listen and debate)

Oneiric 3

GFES outlook for the 20th of this month. Pretty similar to the EC chart I posted early. Cool and cyclonic looks increasingly likely (but no way a certainty) for the last third of Nov.

Soccarboy11

De Bild wrote: »

You are not reading the thread. I'm questioning the validity of one person's LRF over another. Not the right to LRF.

I would not say predicted well in advance. UK Met Office, Met Eireann, the US etc all knew at the same time. But MT can go public much more quickly on a forum like this. One could not appear on tv for example 8 days before Ophelia telling the public a red alert storm was on the way. Too much time for change of track etc and you could cause a national alarm. A very small percentage of the population follow a forum like this.

And that's what I said, people trust MT because of his reputation and longetivity around here. They might not agree with his reports because long range forecasts aren't always accurate but he is known and respected and that is why he is treated the way he is, along with countless other weather people in this thread. It's about voicing his opinion not saying if you think he can actually predict it, it's up to people if they agree or not but by keep on bringing it and questioning why people agree with him , why? If you don't agree you don't agree, if you agree you agree. That's all. Sure some people take this further then others but that's just how it is. As MJohson said above this is a place for people to report on their own predictions with other people who have similar interests and even though I've not really talked much and knky been here a few months it's very interesting and if you are interested in weather events at all, this is the place to go

Now let's get back to dreaming about a beautiful white couple of days here during winter

beefburrito

I wonder will we ever get a 1963 event again.
I love reading about it, especially with the fire crackling and it's a typical November evening.

Every year my dad says in his North Kerry accent, oh I remember 1963 there was still shhhnoo on the ground in March and the Feale was frozen over.

Actually there's a nice photo online of the Feale in Listowel frozen over and kids playing on the ice.

Actually Google it and you'll find the movie clip on YouTube

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes it is. It also begs the question what are they seeing that M.T Cranium isn't. M.T seems to be of the view that any blocking will occur in January.

I was confused with what MT said too - as you saw from my forecasts, he called me brave going for a cold December or any cold weather in December 2017.

Plus, the Met Office have gotten even more bullish today with their 30 days forecast and it mentions the word "snow" in it.

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 22 Nov 2017:
After a cold and frosty start, Monday is likely to be a mainly dry, cold and sunny day for most places. However, cloud and rain may arrive into the far northwest later in the day, perhaps with snow over Scottish hill. Cloudier and milder for many on Tuesday, with patchy rain spreading across the UK, and some heavier bursts possible in the northwest. It will also turn windy at times across the north. Thereafter, a changeable pattern is likely to remain established across the UK. There will be drier days interspersed with spells of rain. Also it may become increasingly windy by the following weekend. Temperatures will generally be around normal, but rather cold in more settled spells, with overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Nov 2017 to Thursday 7 Dec 2017:
There is an increasing signal that blocked patterns will become more dominant throughout this period. This will bring a greater chance of colder and drier conditions under the influence of high pressure. There will still be spells of rain and showers as frontal systems move across the UK, but these will be interspersed with drier, colder and brighter days. There is also an increasing risk of snow at times, more especially in the north. Temperatures will initially be near or slightly below normal but with an increased chance of below normal temperatures later in the period, with an increased likelihood of overnight frosts.

JCX BXC

Trying to hold back the optimism at the moment, it's a good strategy, expect nothing and you won't be disappointed

George Sunsnow

I might point out James madden also predicted the snow of 2010 :pac:

JCX BXC

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I might point out James madden also predicted the snow of 2010 :pac:

Eh that's more of a stopped clock is right twice a day situation

NickNickleby

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I might point out James madden also predicted the snow of 2010 :pac:

I'm showing off now. I gave you a 'like' to show my appreciation of the humour, but I think I'm going to have to really do some hard reading to understand why Mr Madden seems to lack credibility with posters here.

MidMan25

NickNickleby wrote: »

I'm showing off now. I gave you a 'like' to show my appreciation of the humour, but I think I'm going to have to really do some hard reading to understand why Mr Madden seems to lack credibility with posters here.

There's no "seems" about it, the man is a complete and utter spoof :pac:

NickNickleby

MidMan25 wrote: »

There's no "seems" about it, the man is a complete and utter spoof :pac:

In that case, I'll be asking for my money back! :eek:

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

lapua20grain wrote: »

Beautiful crisp frosty morning, love this time of the year

I was on the train to Limerick and I must say most of the fields were covered in what I would call a sharp frost. I really love those severe frosts and the clear cold crispy mornings. Long may they last.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

There's a programme on RTE ONE next Wednesday at 7pm called weather live. It's a live audience show exploring Ireland's obsession with the weather. It will be presented by Kathryn Thomas who will be joined by Met Eireann meteorogists to find out what makes Irish climate so unique. Looking forward to that show.

sryanbruen

natashaob6 wrote: »

There's a programme on RTE ONE next Wednesday at 7pm called weather live. It's a live audience show exploring Ireland's obsession with the weather. It will be presented by Kathryn Thomas who will be joined by Met Eireann meteorogists to find out what makes Irish climate so unique. Looking forward to that show.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057806181

sryanbruen

NickNickleby wrote: »

I'm showing off now. I gave you a 'like' to show my appreciation of the humour, but I think I'm going to have to really do some hard reading to understand why Mr Madden seems to lack credibility with posters here.

As MidMan25 said, he's a complete spoof whom always goes for whatever catches the attention of oblivious people, like HOTTEST SUMMER FOR 50 YEARS or COLDEST WINTER FOR OVER A MILLENNIUM or even LIFE THREATENING STORM ABOUT TO HIT IRELAND!!! etc. He's as bad as any tabloid newspaper when it comes to weather.

United road

Unsure where to ask this question, but confident someone can help!
All these trends being mentioned and it is getting me excited but also it got me thinking!

I would love to have been on here in Nov, Dec 2010. (Joined 2011😡)
Does anyone have a link to those events being discussed here?
Particularly interested in reading the early signs of it being a possibility of happening, not really looking for the "huge flakes falling here now" thread as id say it is thousands of pages long!


Tks in advance

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057806181

Should have gone to Specsavers before I posted.

Esel

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Bottom line is that M.T provides totally free forecasts on this forum (as he does on Irish Weather Online) and whether they be short range or long range forecasts, you get the full package. You'll note that M.T will spend time, unlike the vast majority of charlatans out there, explaining his mythology in great detail, which, given the amount of work he puts into a forecast to begin with, is quite incredible.

I've had the great pleasure of working with M.T 'behind the scenes' and trust me, he does not do anything by half. His databases, which he has many spent years compiling and building up, and which I have been privy to on a few occasions, are some of the most daunting databases I have ever encountered. What you see when you get a forecast on here is a very tided, concise, and easily digestible 'face' of the bigger picture in the background, so whether you agree with his methods and forecasts or not, I think we all owe him the respect he deserves.

Freudian slip?

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

United road wrote: »

Unsure where to ask this question, but confident someone can help!
All these trends being mentioned and it is getting me excited but also it got me thinking!

I would love to have been on here in Nov, Dec 2010. (Joined 2011😡)
Does anyone have a link to those events being discussed here?
Particularly interested in reading the early signs of it being a possibility of happening, not really looking for the "huge flakes falling here now" thread as id say it is thousands of pages long!


Tks in advance

Hopefully this link will work for you it will give you most of the info you are looking for.. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/subzero-temperatures-make-2010-a-recordbreaking-year-26609480.html

United road

natashaob6 wrote: »

Hopefully this link will work for you it will give you most of the info you are looking for.. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/subzero-temperatures-make-2010-a-recordbreaking-year-26609480.html

Firstly thank you for taking the time to post, however it is not what i was looking for, apologies as i may not have been as clear as i could be, i am wondering if the original thread from boards showing that spell for say dec 2010 still exists.

But again thank you for posting Natashaob6

NickNickleby

sryanbruen wrote: »

As MidMan25 said, he's a complete spoof whom always goes for whatever catches the minds of oblivious people, like HOTTEST SUMMER FOR 50 YEARS or COLDEST WINTER FOR OVER A MILLENNIUM or even LIFE THREATENING STORM ABOUT TO HIT IRELAND!!! etc. He's as bad as any tabloid newspaper when it comes to weather.

Does he give really LONG range weather forecasts, that could be based on his interpretations of available data, and could therefore could honestly be given because no contradictory data is available.
Or is more like, "oh, it rained on the second week in February, just like 2010, so we're in for a white-out again this year".

I'm asking because I cannot believe he would just make stuff up. I'm in no way trying to exonerate the man, simply using this as my starting point for looking at weather from a data point of view.

Thanks!

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Esel wrote: »

Freudian slip?

Well said I have been following MT's forecasts for years now and you can tell how much work and dedication he puts in to providing Information about what may or may not happen with our weather here in Ireland. For that alone i applaude him he may not get it right sometimes but who does. As most posters know irish weather is so unpredictable and the charts can change on a daily basis so i'm glad MT provides long term and short term forecasts for us all who follow the Irish weather here on boards.

sryanbruen

NickNickleby wrote: »

Does he give really LONG range weather forecasts, that could be based on his interpretations of available data, and could therefore could honestly be given because no contradictory data is available.
Or is more like, "oh, it rained on the second week in February, just like 2010, so we're in for a white-out again this year".

I'm asking because I cannot believe he would just make stuff up. I'm in no way trying to exonerate the man, simply using this as my starting point for looking at weather from a data point of view.

Thanks!

He does, he uses nothing. No scientific proof. No data. Why do you think he's widely hated among people like myself?

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

Eh that's more of a stopped clock is right twice a day situation

Yeah,I know, hence the :pac: smiley

My rule of thumb on lrf’s is if it’s happened before it can happen again
It’s almost 36 years since the great 1982 blizzard
The ditches disappeared in Arklow for that one and the drifts were up the top of the telephone poles
The road from Arklow out to my farm resembled a tunnel when it was eventually opened
One of the roads completely filled in staying closed for over a week
Up on Croghan mtn on the Wicklow Wexford border where my aunt lived the bottom half of their two story house was buried
They had to get out the upstairs windows
This is only 6 miles west of Arklow
An awful lot of sheep were lost on neighboring farms where the drifts reached the tops of the trees circa 30 to 40 feet high
That was a blizzard,my grandfather in his 90’s at the time had never seen the like of
If it happened before it can happen again and I guess an awful lot of past experience research goes into Mt’s modeling
It is subject to chaos theory though like any forecast,that’s why it can be wrong

I wouldn’t pay too much heed to the UKMO medium term analysis though,adopt a wait and see approach to that
They do flip them,so far from a guarantee

NickNickleby

sryanbruen wrote: »

He does, he uses nothing. No scientific proof. No data. Why do you think he's widely hated among people like myself?

Hahaha, and he charges for his services ?? (I think). I'm off to find some of his stuff and get a taste for what he does. Not that I'll be able to give any sort of critical analysis - yet .

Thanks, sryanbruen for your reply.

Creative83

NickNickleby wrote: »

Hahaha, and he charges for his services ?? (I think). I'm off to find some of his stuff and get a taste for what he does. Not that I'll be able to give any sort of critical analysis - yet .

Thanks, sryanbruen for your reply.

I read today on some site that mid to late this month is shaping up to be a snow fest. Any models backing this up?