Winter 2017-18: Discussion

MJohnston

mini_Sapphire wrote: »

I read today on some site that mid to late this month is shaping up to be a snow fest. Any models backing this up?

There's been a few posts discussing it in this thread already, but as this thread will note, it's still in "Fantasy Island" territory, model wise, which means very uncertain.

Mr Bumble

De Bild wrote: »

I am not one of those who say it's all waffle and spoof. As said earlier i expect science to progress in this area. I had questions re. MT's predictions vis a vis Met UK etc. His status on this site. Questioning of his predictions as opposed to others who use scientific method. Acceptance of questioning on this forum etc.

Oneric has just posted a very comprehensive post now on his attention to detail and methodology.

Theres a half dozen names I look for in the technical discussion area when I'm here who have shown over years that they have an eductated and considered view when it comes to any kind of forecasting and without the knowledge myself to understand the fine detail they are referring too when they form an opinion, I rely on on their brain power.
MT is one of those names and I'm surprised that you, a daily viewer, would not have already reached the conclusion that he has an intense attention to detail and a complex methodology simply by reading what he has had to say over the years. I certainly didn't need Oneric to tell me that. Oneric is one of the dirty half dozen btw.
I have often seen MT's forecasts challenged within this group. Quite forcefully by some.

Equally, there's a half dozen names I see here whenever there is a major event who feel the need to obsessively and canterkerously burst bubbles, mostly of their own inflation and seem to glory in swimming against the tide. They have no visible science to back up what they say but they know with great certainty that they are right. Often enough, because this is an inexact science, they turn out to be right but they attract the most negative responses usually because of the way they phrase their posts. They are not interested in a discussion, only interested in a reaction.

It seems to me that the hero worship you detect is nothing more than affection for a forum leader and somone who has shown, like others on the forum, that his passion for the weather is laced with a real concern for the consequences of it when extremes occur.
If it does stray beyond that, which I'll grant you, it sometimes does, I can't recall it originating among the hard core of knowledgeable posters in the technical discussion thread.
More likely from where you're sitting, beside me and droidman and the rest of us who look at the charts and see an LGBT flag.

De Bild

Mr Bumble wrote: »

MT is one of those names and I'm surprised that you, a daily viewer, would not have already reached the conclusion that he has an intense attention to detail and a complex methodology simply by reading what he has had to say over the years.

I made a lot of posts the gist being one poster said why are UK Met predicting a very cold end of November and MT hasn't.

My query was why MT, one person, and a very knowledgeable one at that, afforded the same kudos in forecasting as a National Service??

The group of 6 you speak of and we all can guess who they are..are they not individuals who would not equate to an international Met Office in terms of personnel and predictive aids?

I feel the 6 or so you mention are excellent, knowledgeable and modest. However some of their cheer leaders are exaggerating there capabilities. A person, i think username Natasha, was speaking about she would nearly take it as true MT's January forecast. I have read a lot of her posts and she is quite rational almost always.

I'm not a naysayer to science. I'm not an 'i told you so person'. I want to point out MT's long term forecasts, however scientific, regardless of the work he puts in and voluntary spirit, are, as of yet, no better than other LRFers. I want to be able to say that without 20 replies to the tune of 'you ungrateful person do you not know the depth of research MT does, all for free and he's a lovely man'! Which i'm sure he is.

I find MT's daily to medium term forecasts excellent. He is a very generous man with his time. But please allow me and others to say we don't think MT or others have quite reached the level of LRFs. And to conclude, allow me to hold the opinion, whether you disagree or not, that National Met Agencys have more expertise than one man, due to manpower and access to more forecasting tools. Unless MT has access to what they have?? But he's only one genius where you have a lot of brains combined at agencies..

Gaoth Laidir

De Bild wrote: »

I made a lot of posts the gist being one poster said why are UK Met predicting a very cold end of November and MT hasn't.

My query was why MT, one person, and a very knowledgeable one at that, afforded the same kudos in forecasting as a National Service??

The group of 6 you speak of and we all can guess who they are..are they not individuals who would not equate to an international Met Office in terms of personnel and predictive aids?

I feel the 6 or so you mention are excellent, knowledgeable and modest. However some of their cheer leaders are exaggerating there capabilities. A person, i think username Natasha, was speaking about she would nearly take it as true MT's January forecast. I have read a lot of her posts and she is quite rational almost always.

I'm not a naysayer to science. I'm not an 'i told you so person'. I want to point out MT's long term forecasts, however scientific, regardless of the work he puts in and voluntary spirit, are, as of yet, no better than other LRFers. I want to be able to say that without 20 replies to the tune of 'you ungrateful person do you not know the depth of research MT does, all for free and he's a lovely man'! Which i'm sure he is.

I find MT's daily to medium term forecasts excellent. He is a very generous man with his time. But please allow me and others to say we don't think MT or others have quite reached the level of LRFs. And to conclude, allow me to hold the opinion, whether you disagree or not, that National Met Agencys have more expertise than one man, due to manpower and access to more forecasting tools. Unless MT has access to what they have?? But he's only one genius where you have a lot of brains combined at agencies..

Believe me, if MT came on and said there would be no snow, he would not be a popular person. I'm not for a minute saying he mentions the "s" word to get Thanks, he's far from that type of person. Like Oneiric, I too work with him outside of this forum, but I have to admit I think Oneiric understands his methods better than I do.

There was a post a few pages up that asked De Bild

But why be critical in the first place. What's the point of it.
"I don't believe in long range forecasts" Great then why the hell come into a winter discussion forum nearly a month before winter ?

This typifies the problem in this forum. Any constructive criticism, such as what De Bild was offering, is immediately shot down. Any opinion that goes against the snowopoly that exists here (e.g. comments from people like Clonmel, who don't want snow for whatever reason) are pounced upon and poster castigated (I was going to say castrated, but it's near enough to that sometimes) :rolleyes: An opinion against snow is as valid as that of a snowdaphile. Someone should be able to come into this forum a month before winter and not have his motives questioned.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This typifies the problem in this forum. Any constructive criticism, such as what De Bild was offering, is immediately shot down. Any opinion that goes against the snowopoly that exists here (e.g. comments from people like Clonmel, who don't want snow for whatever reason) are pounced upon and poster castigated (I was going to say castrated, but it's near enough to that sometimes) :rolleyes: An opinion against snow is as valid as that of a snowdaphile. Someone should be able to come into this forum a month before winter and not have his motives questioned.

I'd agree to an extent on this issue, however I feel it was previously a much larger problem. In ways it's like the average posting quality has increased here as of late, with opinions more respected and better discussion going on. I think most of the outrageous statements that caused the issues are no longer being made, hence the less issues we're seeing. Of course we still naturally see this occuring (I won't say I am completely guilt free), but discussions like this are helping the forum. We can all gain knowledge from eachother.

And on that note, I bid ye well. It's been an interesting discussion this evening, and on the eve of some potentially interesting weather.

De Bild

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Believe me, if MT came on and said there would be no snow, he would not be a popular person. I'm not for a minute saying he mentions the "s" word to get Thanks, he's far from that type of person. Like Oneiric, I too work with him outside of this forum, but I have to admit I think Oneiric understands his methods better than I do.

There was a post a few pages up that asked De Bild



This typifies the problem in this forum. Any constructive criticism, such as what De Bild was offering, is immediately shot down. Any opinion that goes against the snowopoly that exists here (e.g. comments from people like Clonmel, who don't want snow for whatever reason) are pounced upon and poster castigated (I was going to say castrated, but it's near enough to that sometimes) :rolleyes: An opinion against snow is as valid as that of a snowdaphile. Someone should be able to come into this forum a month before winter and not have his motives questioned.

Excellent post.

nagdefy

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Believe me, if MT came on and said there would be no snow, he would not be a popular person. I'm not for a minute saying he mentions the "s" word to get Thanks, he's far from that type of person. Like Oneiric, I too work with him outside of this forum, but I have to admit I think Oneiric understands his methods better than I do.

There was a post a few pages up that asked De Bild



This typifies the problem in this forum. Any constructive criticism, such as what De Bild was offering, is immediately shot down. Any opinion that goes against the snowopoly that exists here (e.g. comments from people like Clonmel, who don't want snow for whatever reason) are pounced upon and poster castigated (I was going to say castrated, but it's near enough to that sometimes) :rolleyes: An opinion against snow is as valid as that of a snowdaphile. Someone should be able to come into this forum a month before winter and not have his motives questioned.

Yes i feel Clonmel gets a raw deal. If you had an accident in snow driving, lost water for days on end for farm animals or had your business effected by snow you may not be personally too keen on it.

Clonmel is one of the most genuine posters on the weather thread. I remember when my dad died a year ago he sent me a really kind message. We can all judge people by a very unimportant thing about someone..how much they love snow:)

leahyl

Eh, liking this from Syranbruen forecast this morning:

"Blocking still seemingly consistent on all models and likely to impact us majorly for the latter part of the month and possibly into Winter."

George Sunsnow

Fi folk’s
FI
I think Syran and Mt wouldn’t want to get carried away

Danno

Interesting GFS 06Z rolling out. It seems from November 16th things get rather interesting with the jet stream (roughly the black line in the 500hPa) takes a southward track, coupled with a 1055hPa Greenland high allows a north-to-northeast airflow to become established backed along by a strong Norwegian low cell of around 975hPa.

Of concern though is the 850hPa temperatures which hover either-side of the -5c meaning borderline wintry precipitation for us.

Overall though, it's an an encouraging trend as opposed to raging mild south-westerlies that have dominated many of the previous winters.

BLIZZARD7

Blocking signal continues across the models today, I'd be very surprised if we don't see some form of Greenland high in place in say 9-12 days time. It's orientation and whether or not we can get pressure to drop over southern Europe will ultimately decide if we get cool and wet or cold and potentially snowy weather. Interesting times regardless.

BLIZZARD7

On a more immediate note, I think mountains (especially in the northern half of the country) might get a dusting on Sunday.

sryanbruen

leahyl wrote: »

Eh, liking this from Syranbruen forecast this morning:

"Blocking still seemingly consistent on all models and likely to impact us majorly for the latter part of the month and possibly into Winter."

Yes but notice how I didn't specifically state what impacts it could have on our weather (unlike yesterday with the possibility of a sustained cold spell) .

At the end of the GFS 06z run today for example, it was showing a southerly tracking jet stream and stubborn northern blocking but look at this low over our shores. This would be a mild and wet situation.

In my opinion going by my methodology too, I think this is highly unlikely for this November (Winter maybe a totally different story). If we're not going to get cold and unsettled then I'd look at a situation very similar to late November last year with a big anticyclone over us for nearly two weeks bringing lots of sunshine and frost.

Metmaster

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

On a more immediate note, I think mountains (especially in the northern half of the country) might get a dusting on Sunday.

Down to -3 sunday night nice to see temperatures getting below freezing by night at last.

George Sunsnow

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/928651813854810114

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

mini_Sapphire wrote: »

I read today on some site that mid to late this month is shaping up to be a snow fest. Any models backing this up?

I wouln'd go getting too excite. As I have learned over the years the media and other sources of information seem to come out every winter with what seems to be excratiated stories about how our Winter is going to pan out. It might happen but you would be better off keeping an eye on this thread or MT's forecasts which are more realistic and are more of a reliable source of how our Winter might turn out.

sryanbruen

The majority of the GFS ensembles are now going for a "crash" in the AO for the second half of November.

EMPotatohands

So........snow?

JCX BXC

EMPotatohands wrote: »

So........snow?

It's not at all that simple!

EMPotatohands

JCX BXC wrote: »

It's not at all that simple!

I'm just obsessed sorry 😭😭😭

pauldry

The difference with this predicted cold and last 6 years predicted cold is the high over Greenland which is fairly likely will shift all the normal weather patterns and bend the jet stream down South over some of Europe.

Almost certainly colder than Normal from 20th about but at worst it will be 7c to 10c at best -6c at night and 3 or 4c by day.

Wait and see.

nacho libre

De Bild wrote: »

They have a lot of forecasters and expertise. Not one man! A poster says 'oh UK Met are going for a cold end to November.. what are they seeing that MT isn't?' That's ridiculous in my book given their resources. It's not saying MT is not a good meteorologist or we don't have the right to predict ahead. Common sense.

You completely misunderstood my post it seems.

I was actually questioning the accuracy of his earlier winter forecast since he stated high pressure would be situated in Europe in early winter which would make a cold outbreak unlikely, while acknowledging he was forthright about the record breaking December 2010 cold spell along with the uk met office. Which others, most notably the ecm model, wavered on.
I didn't think it needed to be stated the UK Met Office have vastly greater resources. Yet even they get it wrong.
With this in mind I certainly don't put him on a pedestal. I recall times he has got his predictions wrong. I do though admire his brainpower, passion, humour, and the fact he devotes a great amount of his time to us on a voluntary basis.

nacho libre

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Believe me, if MT came on and said there would be no snow, he would not be a popular person. I'm not for a minute saying he mentions the "s" word to get Thanks, he's far from that type of person. Like Oneiric, I too work with him outside of this forum, but I have to admit I think Oneiric understands his methods better than I do.

There was a post a few pages up that asked De Bild



This typifies the problem in this forum. Any constructive criticism, such as what De Bild was offering, is immediately shot down. Any opinion that goes against the snowopoly that exists here (e.g. comments from people like Clonmel, who don't want snow for whatever reason) are pounced upon and poster castigated (I was going to say castrated, but it's near enough to that sometimes) :rolleyes:

Castigated is a strong and inaccurate word to use for the post you are referring to. I made a benign joke about him using reverse psychology in the hope it snows. I would not castigate him or anyone for not liking snow, neither would I, or indeed most here, shout down an opinion that went against the prevailing view. This place is not an echo chamber. A lot of people see you as the voice of reason around here during any discussion about the potential for snow.

George Sunsnow

I think (and I include myself in this) that people get too angry reading stuff online when they’d be better off laughing at it instead
Try that
The opinions of people here are just that even when accompanied with a link to this that or the other

There are people who like snow
They come here
They thank posts mentioning snow
Replace snow with heat or thunder,same story
Fact
No need to get upset about it
Serious forecasters will get in on this thanksfest only when they too mention the wanted weather
Know who they are

Netweather and two ,the main 2 UK fora have a third category(its over run with them) that sometimes you see here too,and that’s the hopecasters
They know what brings the snow heat or thunder and only post charts that suggest it and go further usually with added phrases like ‘if this goes here and that goes there’ or a catch all ‘more charts /runs needed’
Those are fun to read but you need a certain skill yourself not to be fooled by them

squarecircles

Last frame of the gfs 12z is promising,presurre dropping over Iberia,heights building to our northwest,with a east/ north east wind developing,the minus 10 isotherm flooding south on a path towards Ireland.

Clonmel1000

nacho libre wrote: »

Castigated is a strong and inaccurate word to use for the post you are referring to. I made a benign joke about him using reverse psychology in the hope it snows. I would not castigate him or anyone for not liking snow, neither would I, or indeed most here, shout down an opinion that went against the prevailing view. This place is not an echo chamber. A lot of people see you as the voice of reason around here during any discussion about the potential for snow.

I took it for what it was a joke but tbh I’ve received several pms from people castigating me for not wanting snow accusing me of being some sort of killjoy. I do feel myself there is a cabal at play here from time to time but I enjoy posting here and reading other people’s views.

George Sunsnow

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

I took it for what it was a joke but tbh I’ve received several pms from people castigating me for not wanting snow accusing me of being some sort of killjoy. I do feel myself there is a cabal at play here from time to time but I enjoy posting here and reading other people’s views.

If there are people pm’ing you with messages like that I think they belong in the madhouse tbh
They’re not normal
To like snow is one thing,to follow science of cold weather is exciting as it evolves if the weathers heading that way

But to be pm’ing people giving out to them for not liking snow,that’s loop the loop crazy

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/hammondweather/status/929061052985282561

km79

George Sunsnow wrote: »

If there are people pm’ing you with messages like that I think they belong in the madhouse tbh
They’re not normal
To like snow is one thing,to follow science of cold weather is exciting as it evolves if the weathers heading that way

But to be pm’ing people giving out to them for not liking snow,that’s loop the loop crazy

Have we written off summer 2017 yet......I'm still waiting for my heatwave that the charts promised me in 7 days

jaffusmax

If anyone has been following sunspot activity this year there has been a 25% number of days with no sunspots. Solar minimum has not even been reached yet.

Regarding predictions of any major cold outbreaks I will be placing my trust in established weather forecasting organisations like the UKMO. As generous as people are with providing short term weather forecasts the resources and data the UKMO have access to cannot compare to what is in the public domain.