Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Clonmel1000

MidMan25 wrote: »

Right on cue!

Is that aimed at me? So any opinions other than fanciful dreams of snow are dismisssed, right on cue indeed.

Reckless Abandonment

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Is that aimed at me? So any opinions other than fanciful dreams of snow are dismisssed, right on cue indeed.

I think you made a wish more than an opinion.

nagdefy

JCX BXC wrote: »

I think I'll keep my optimism at bay for now, it's early November and we're still looking at FI territory.

At least we might have a nice frost. I love a nice frost.

I remember decent snowfall at home from 19th November 1996 for a week. There was a decent fall in Northern Ireland. Ours was more altitiude related. Also around the 25th November 2005 when Georgie Best died, we had a lot of snow that morning that hung around. Also November 1991 we had 3 or 4 snowfall events from mid November related to cold north westerlies in a zonal Atlantic flow. Again they were high ground events. And of course from 25th November 2010, low and high ground.

nagdefy

JCX BXC wrote: »

I think I'll keep my optimism at bay for now, it's early November and we're still looking at FI territory.

At least we might have a nice frost. I love a nice frost.

If you remember November 1988 JCX there was a very cold frosty week around mid month. Hit -7C in Kilkenny and frost and for persisted in inland areas many days.

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

I remember decent snowfall at home from 19th November 1996 for a week. There was a decent fall in Northern Ireland. Ours was more altitiude related. Also around the 25th November 2005 when Georgie Best died, we had a lot of snow that morning that hung around. Also November 1991 we had 3 or 4 snowfall events from mid November related to cold north westerlies in a zonal Atlantic flow. Again they were high ground events. And of course from 25th November 2010, low and high ground.

Yep but on that same day (19 Nov 1996) here in Dublin, we had one of our wettest November days on record. Casement Aerodrome had a daily rainfall of 58.4mm on this day.

http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-1996-Nov.pdf

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yep but on that same day (19 Nov 1996) here in Dublin, we had one of our wettest November days on record. Casement Aerodrome had a daily rainfall of 58.4mm on this day.

http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-1996-Nov.pdf

Yes Sryan. Higher ground and further north did best. We got an awful dumping. I was home from college for a few days and remember having to carry a couple of sacks of hay to 2 horses we still had outdoors. They were on our highest land and i was climbing against the hill and snow blowing. As rough a day as i was ever out on the farm.

One of those particular horses tended to be associated with weather events. On Christmas Eve 1997 i had bother bringing her in out of that storm and she kicked me in the head with her front foot and knocked me out! She was a gentle mare usually and lived until 30 with 24 foals!

nacho libre

What i would dearly love for Christmas this year is for Jerry to forecast a polar low coming downing over Ireland on Christmas eve. We are overdue a nationwide event. I mean I personally can do without snow, i'm thinking more so of Clonmel1000. He is so desperate for snow he is using reverse psychology.:P

Donegal Storm

Cold charts at 192z+ on the gfs are standard at this time of year, not worth looking twice at. Forecast for the week ahead is for fairly typical alternating mild/cool zonality, hopefully high pressure building towards the weekend which might finally give a frost and a few dry days

Clonmel1000

nacho libre wrote: »

What i would dearly love for Christmas this year is for Jerry to forecast a polar low coming downing over Ireland on Christmas eve. We are overdue a nationwide event. I mean I personally can do without snow, i'm thinking more so of Clonmel1000. He is so desperate for snow he is using reverse psychology.:P

Actually I’m heading to the sun for xmas so I’d be delighted to see snow in Ireland once I’m goneðŸ‘

pauldry

Yes frost is beginning to be rare too

Sky doesnt stay clear long enough. When was the last time there was 3 days of unbroken (ish) blue sky day and night.

Hell when was the last time there was 2?

Hence no frost

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Yes frost is beginning to be rare too

Sky doesnt stay clear long enough. When was the last time there was 3 days of unbroken (ish) blue sky day and night.

Hell when was the last time there was 2?

Hence no frost

July 17th/18th.

nagdefy

nacho libre wrote: »

What i would dearly love for Christmas this year is for Jerry to forecast a polar low coming downing over Ireland on Christmas eve. We are overdue a nationwide event. I mean I personally can do without snow, i'm thinking more so of Clonmel1000. He is so desperate for snow he is using reverse psychology.:P

Polar lows in winter and thunderstorms in summer are a dying breed compared to the 1980s..

2 weather phenomena we all generally enjoy. Is there any reason for this?

June and July 1983 was full of thunderstorms, 1985 had the big one, we nearly missed the WC Final between Argentina (Maradona) and Germany at the end of June 1986 due to a thunderstorm. 1990 and 1991 had decent thunderstorms.

I'm not as good on the dates for polar lows but winters 1982-1987 had a good few.

Soccarboy11

I just hope Mother Nature doesn't forget about us down in Cork again! Been ages since we had proper snow, really 2004/2005 is the best I can remember. Stuck around for days! Since then we had cold weather in 2010, not much snow (in the city) if I recall, can't remember fully!

nacho libre

nagdefy wrote: »

Y
One of those particular horses tended to be associated with weather events. On Christmas Eve 1997 i had bother bringing her in out of that storm and she kicked me in the head with her front foot and knocked me out! She was a gentle mare usually and lived until 30 with 24 foals!

I know to use the word lucky seems odd after that kind of thing happening,but the fact you survived you were indeed lucky. A guy over here, who had been working with horses for 20 years died from such a kick recently. I don't know if it was complacency on his part, perhaps the horse usually was just like the one you describe.

sryanbruen

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

I just hope Mother Nature doesn't forget about us down in Cork again! Been ages since we had proper snow, really 2004/2005 is the best I can remember. Stuck around for days! Since then we had cold weather in 2010, not much snow (in the city) if I recall, can't remember fully!

I don't remember any snow in Winter 2004/05 bar Christmas Day.

nagdefy

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Cold charts at 192z+ on the gfs are standard at this time of year, not worth looking twice at. Forecast for the week ahead is for fairly typical alternating mild/cool zonality, hopefully high pressure building towards the weekend which might finally give a frost and a few dry days

Very true. Met Eireann are going for a bit of a cool down on their latest forecast.

'Next weekend: Changeable and unsettled. Spells of rain and showers. It'll turn progressively colder too.'

sryanbruen

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Actually I’m heading to the sun for xmas so I’d be delighted to see snow in Ireland once I’m goneðŸ‘

Sun at Christmas, unless it's crisp Winter sun that is, would definitely not be my Paradise. It would feel strange.

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

I don't remember any snow in Winter 2004/05 bar Christmas Day.

Same here. I was studying a postgrad in UCD and one of my flatmates was Finnish. She had a jacket for -30-40C temps. She was dying to wear it and one night it was -2C and she put it on but felt a bit overheated!! It was an amazing piece of clothing..like a massive lagging jacket

nacho libre

nagdefy wrote: »

Polar lows in winter and thunderstorms in summer are a dying breed compared to the 1980s..

2 weather phenomena we all generally enjoy. Is there any reason for this?

June and July 1983 was full of thunderstorms, 1985 had the big one, we nearly missed the WC Final between Argentina (Maradona) and Germany at the end of June 1986 due to a thunderstorm. 1990 and 1991 had decent thunderstorms.

I'm not as good on the dates for polar lows but winters 1982-1987 had a good few.

They do indeed seem rarer. Is it to do with a warmer north Atlantic waters?
I seem to associate Polar lows with Aidan Nulty. I remember he gave a good explanation of what they were. Was the snow event in December 2000 courtesy of a Polar low?
The last proper Thunderstorms i remember were in May 2001, they came up from Biscay.

nagdefy

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

I just hope Mother Nature doesn't forget about us down in Cork again! Been ages since we had proper snow, really 2004/2005 is the best I can remember. Stuck around for days! Since then we had cold weather in 2010, not much snow (in the city) if I recall, can't remember fully!

I think it's Cork's year after yesterday;) Good omens!

Soccarboy11

sryanbruen wrote: »

I don't remember any snow in Winter 2004/05 bar Christmas Day.

that was it, christmas day. I was pretty young so dont remember fully but I do remember mounds of it on the road, snowmen, snow angles and waking up a very happy lad that morning! :P

Donegal Storm

nagdefy wrote: »

Polar lows in winter and thunderstorms in summer are a dying breed compared to the 1980s..

2 weather phenomena we all generally enjoy. Is there any reason for this?

June and July 1983 was full of thunderstorms, 1985 had the big one, we nearly missed the WC Final between Argentina (Maradona) and Germany at the end of June 1986 due to a thunderstorm. 1990 and 1991 had decent thunderstorms.

I'm not as good on the dates for polar lows but winters 1982-1987 had a good few.

Christmas 1995 and again in 2000 are the only two I can recall, not sure of the synoptics of either but we had several hours of heavy blowing snow in Donegal on both occasions so I'd assume there were embedded lows in the flow

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

I don't remember any snow in Winter 2004/05 bar Christmas Day.

Actually Sryan there was that week at the end of February when there was some snow. I was in Dublin but they got some at home. 1st March 2005 snowfall caused traffic problems on the Naas road.

Gonzo

the Christmas Day 2004 snow was very brief and only on the ground for a few hours, it was melting fast by nightfall.

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

Actually Sryan there was that week at the end of February when there was some snow. I was in Dublin but they got some at home. 1st March 2005 snowfall caused traffic problems on the Naas road.

Was that snow in Ireland? I really can't remember if it was snow for me at least. I know that it definitely snowed in Britain in March 2005 and that there was a rather cold interval at the end of that February which brought temperatures down, especially in the east of Ireland.

nagdefy

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Christmas 1995 and again in 2000 are the only two I can recall, not sure of the synoptics of either but we had several hours of heavy blowing snow in Donegal on both occasions so I'd assume there were embedded lows in the flow

Christmas 1995 brought a fairly direct northerly. I think Aldergrove recorded -13C around 27th December. It was getting progressively colder all week. By the time it got down to Laois there was no snow left but daytime temps below freezing and -9C at night.

Christmas 2000 was a similar setup. We got a dusting and watched the news reports from the northern half of the country with envy!

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

Was that snow in Ireland? I really can't remember if it was snow for me at least. I know that it definitely snowed in Britain in March 2005 and that there was a rather cold interval at the end of that February which brought temperatures down, especially in the east of Ireland.

It was again if you look at the archive monthly data on Met Eireann you'll see the reports.

Here's the 1st March account

'Tuesday 1st: Showers through the night hours, heaviest in the west, falling as
sleet or snow on higher ground away from coasts. In the east the showers
merged to give more continuous rain or sleet. The showers became lighter and
well scattered during the early afternoon, dying out by evening except near
western coasts. Sunny periods between the showers. Cold. Light to moderate
northeasterly winds, occasionally stronger on northern and western coasts.
Rainfall: <1 to 5mm, heaviest at Valentia, <1mm at Rosslare
Temperature: max. 5°C to 8°C, min. 0°C to 4°C, ground temperatures below zero'.

In the early morning the precipitation was snow in the east and the traffic problems was number 1 item on the 6 news.

nagdefy

Gonzo wrote: »

the Christmas Day 2004 snow was very brief and only on the ground for a few hours, it was melting fast by nightfall.

We got until late Stephen's Day out of the event. Again altitude helped us a lot.

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

Was that snow in Ireland? I really can't remember if it was snow for me at least. I know that it definitely snowed in Britain in March 2005 and that there was a rather cold interval at the end of that February which brought temperatures down, especially in the east of Ireland.

Here's the quote for the last week of February 2005 from Met Eireann.

'22nd to 28th: A cold northeasterly
airstream became established, bringing
showers of hail, sleet or snow, most
frequent over the north and east, where a
few were heavy and thundery. Daytime
temperatures were well below normal at
first, while frost was widespread between
the 22nd and 24th.'

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here's the AO index chart for the latter half of 2010, I'm seeing some similarities to the current outlook.

Btw when I said similarities, I was not pointing at that we'll have a repeat of the December to remember in 2010. I was just saying that there are similarities of the AO between now and 2010 which could be nature's way of saying something to us - negative AO levels that the GFS ensembles are going for right now are not what you see every year. The big difference with 2010 being the Icelandic volcano eruption which is said to have influenced the cold snaps at the end of 2010. I'm carrying out a research on historical volcanic eruptions to see if there is any correlation of a reduction in Irish temperatures or at least an effect on the Irish climate from volcanic eruptions such as Iceland 2010: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057798296