Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Oneiric 3

Here is how yesterday evening's EC15 looked out to day 13. A clear disruption to the more normal SW flow:



Probably why the UK Met are sayin' what they is sayin'.

Loughc

carltonleon wrote: »

There must be, We've been stockpiling it for the last 6 years

We actually sold some off a few years ago we had so much unused.

De Bild

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes it is. It also begs the question what are they seeing that M.T Cranium isn't. M.T seems to be of the view that any blocking will occur in January.

This is my first post on the weather forum and it will not be a popular one. It is an honest opinion however and i will try not to be offensive.

I have been following the weather threads for many years. I follow MT Cranium's daily forecasts which are excellent. He/she obviously put a lot of voluntary time into them which is most commendable.

My problem is MT seems to be put on a pedestal, like in the post i quote, where he is on a level with the UK Met Office. If posters like DruidMan question his ability to make a long range forecast better than Ken Ring or others they are immediately cowed down.

I can not understand how one person's view is given as much or more credibility in all things meteorological than a state forecaster like Met Eireann?

I know a forum can become cosy, posters get to no one another for years and will defend someone they have a lot of respect for who works very hard on a voluntary basis and is an excellent meteorologist.

But people should be able to question without being shot down. All posters on a forum should try and retain some objectivity.

I will give one instance where MT may or may not be right. He said in mid October it would be a brave weather forecaster who predicted cold in the first half of winter due to the anticyclone over south central europe. Now many on here are pointing towards cold at the end of November. Let us see how it pans out. MT's long range forecasts have been no more accurate than any long range forecaster over the last few winters. I am not bashing his scientific attempts at forecasting. Merely pointing out that he is no more accurate than others and we need objectivity and not to castigate those who retain a critical element to their analysis of MT's forecasts.

MJohnston

De Bild wrote: »

If posters like DruidMan question his ability to make a long range forecast better than Ken Ring or others they are immediately cowed down.

I'm sorry, but this is just not accurate.

Ultimately this is a Weather forum, therefore more scientifically minded than most others, so I would say that if you come here with a scientifically founded disagreement with MTC or anyone else, people will happily debate that with you.

In fact, I believe if you scroll back through this or other threads, you'll see plenty of discussions where that is the case.

And where people aren't as advanced in expertise around meteorology and come into threads with curiosity and open-minded disagreement, I think you see plenty of acceptance of that too.

The problem, imo, comes with a handful of posters who tend to swagger in with insulting and condescending comments with little or no scientific understanding, or indeed with any curiosity or open-mindedness. It's a confrontational and negative attitude that services no-one, I think. That is why they get "cowed down", not because they disagree or because MTC is a god to everyone.

JCX BXC

I think it's certainly worth noting that MT does not make these forecasts for any monetary value, unlike Ken Ring and the baseless daily mail contacts. I'd also like to point out that MT gives no guarantee of being right, nor does he give over the top forecast. I see it as educated probabilities.

I don't think anyone has a problem with someone giving their two cents on how they think differently, however coming in with a barrage of abuse and insults to posters who do subscribe to the forecasts won't go down well, it's something you think would be common sense, apparently not in some cases.

De Bild

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm sorry, but this is just not accurate.

Ultimately this is a Weather forum, therefore more scientifically minded than most others, so I would say that if you come here with a scientifically founded disagreement with MTC or anyone else, people will happily debate that with you.

Not true. MT's winter forecasts have been no more or less accurate than any other long range forecaster since 2010. I have followed them all. That is a FACT scientifically. But it is almost an unwritten rule that you can't say that here. Because of some notion that his 'science' is better than everyone else's. Now it's better than James Madden and that Roo guy but not everyone.

Reckless Abandonment

De Bild.
Fair question and we'll put.
A lot of us have been using this forum for years and MT has been the main reason for its popularity. His daily forecast etc.
I think the problem that gets to most is, that some poster just pop up when it's busy in here and say
"No one can predict 2 months out"
"I hate snow"
"won't someone think of the childern"

What's the point of a weather forum of we can't try predict and say we love snow, storms etc.
It's a bit like going to the football forum and saying you wish every game was a nil nil draw .
And MT is a bloke.

JCX BXC

De Bild wrote: »

Not true. MT's winter forecasts have been no more or less accurate than any other long range forecaster since 2010. I have followed them all. That is a FACT scientifically. But it is almost an unwritten rule that you can't say that here. Because of some notion that his 'science' is better than everyone else's. Now it's better than James Madden and that Roo guy but not everyone.

I don't recall any instance where someone has said that MT is better than any other scientifically backed long term forecaster (which there is few).

Also, can I ask why you think it is fact? Does every forecast not have it's discrepancies, some maybe even being contrary to eachother, why is it fact that MT is not more or not less accurate?

De Bild

JCX BXC wrote: »

I think it's certainly worth noting that MT does not make these forecasts for any monetary value, unlike Ken Ring and the baseless daily mail contacts. I'd also like to point out that MT gives no guarantee of being right, nor does he give over the top forecast. I see it as educated probabilities.

I don't think anyone has a problem with someone giving their two cents on how they think differently, however coming in with a barrage of abuse and insults to posters who do subscribe to the forecasts won't go down well, it's something you think would be common sense, apparently not in some cases.

I have not come in with a barrage of insults firstly. I stated MT works on a voluntary basis.

Stating you may not be right in no way makes you a better long range forecaster.

The weather forum is full of an unhealthy cult of MT regarding his weather predictions. Now i am stating his weather predictions. Not the integrity of him/her.

This idea that a person can't dip into the weather forum and make objective commentary is ridiculous. That we should somehow serve our time like the 'regulars'. It's an open forum.

droidman123

JCX BXC wrote: »

I think it's certainly worth noting that MT does not make these forecasts for any monetary value, unlike Ken Ring and the baseless daily mail contacts. I'd also like to point out that MT gives no guarantee of being right, nor does he give over the top forecast. I see it as educated probabilities.

I don't think anyone has a problem with someone giving their two cents on how they think differently, however coming in with a barrage of abuse and insults to posters who do subscribe to the forecasts won't go down well, it's something you think would be common sense, apparently not in some cases.

You seem to have this fantasy that i came here with a "barrage of abuse and insults" why are you making this nonsense up? I called long range weather forecasts spoof and waffle and i stand by that.there is NO science whatsoever available to forecast irelands weather for 2/3 months ahead.guess,s and probabilites based on trends and other factors can be put forward,but its pointless when at the end of the day they will most likely be wrong.

De Bild

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

De Bild.
Fair question and we'll put.
A lot of us have been using this forum for years and MT has been the main reason for its popularity. His daily forecast etc.
I think the problem that gets to most is, that some poster just pop up when it's busy in here and say
"No one can predict 2 months out"
"I hate snow"
"won't someone think of the childern"

What's the point of a weather forum of we can't try predict and say we love snow, storms etc.
It's a bit like going to the football forum and saying you wish every game was a nil nil draw .
And MT is a bloke.

Firstly the forum isn't busy now. It's a very average day and there's nothing severe coming in the next week.

Secondly i have read the forum threads every day for 7 years!

Thirdly there is nothing wrong with trying to predict ahead. It's comments that put MT on a par with UK Met that annoy me. They have a lot of forecasters and expertise. Not one man! A poster says 'oh UK Met are going for a cold end to November.. what are they seeing that MT isn't?' That's ridiculous in my book given their resources. It's not saying MT is not a good meteorologist or we don't have the right to predict ahead. Common sense.

De Bild

JCX BXC wrote: »

I don't recall any instance where someone has said that MT is better than any other scientifically backed long term forecaster (which there is few).

Also, can I ask why you think it is fact? Does every forecast not have it's discrepancies, some maybe even being contrary to eachother, why is it fact that MT is not more or not less accurate?

I read Droidman's posts. He insulted no one but dared to venture a different opinion.

JCX BXC

De Bild wrote: »

I have not come in with a barrage of insults firstly. I stated MT works on a voluntary basis.

Stating you may not be right in no way makes you a better long range forecaster.

The weather forum is full of an unhealthy cult of MT regarding his weather predictions. Now i am stating his weather predictions. Not the integrity of him/her.

This idea that a person can't dip into the weather forum and make objective commentary is ridiculous. That we should somehow serve our time like the 'regulars'. It's an open forum.

I never said you were coming in with a barrage of insults or abuse, Infact you made a very reasonable post, which is why I feel it's a respectful discussion.

De Bild

JCX BXC wrote: »

I never said you were coming in with a barrage of insults or abuse, Infact you made a very reasonable post, which is why I feel it's a respectful discussion.

Thank you Sir/Madam.

But there is an element of 'the pile on culture' here where alternative viewpoints are hit on by numerous posters.

We must differentiate between MT's popularity, voluntary ethos, right to make long range forecasts, integrity and abilities in comparison with state forecasters and other long range forecasters who use scientific methods.

The right to say 'no i don't believe in long range forecasts' for a lay person, without providing proof should be allowed. Until a series of monthly and seasonal forecasts have been proven to be as accurate as our weekly forecasts. Why should a person sceptical of Long Range Forecasts prove scientifically you can't forecast that long when the people making them employ scientific methods that are, as of now, themselves inaccurate?

MJohnston

De Bild wrote: »

Not true. MT's winter forecasts have been no more or less accurate than any other long range forecaster since 2010. I have followed them all. That is a FACT scientifically. But it is almost an unwritten rule that you can't say that here. Because of some notion that his 'science' is better than everyone else's. Now it's better than James Madden and that Roo guy but not everyone.

The reason that MT has a good reputation here is because he explains his science very clearly and thoroughly, and he also explains the uncertainties and probabilities very well too. It's nothing to do with his predictions being more or less accurate than anyone else, and nobody is saying his science is "better".

Reckless Abandonment

De Bild wrote: »

Firstly the forum isn't busy now. It's a very average day and there's nothing severe coming in the next week.

Secondly i have read the forum threads every day for 7 years!

Thirdly there is nothing wrong with trying to predict ahead. It's comments that put MT on a par with UK Met that annoy me. They have a lot of forecasters and expertise. Not one man! A poster says 'oh UK Met are going for a cold end to November.. what are they seeing that MT isn't?' That's ridiculous in my book given their resources. It's not saying MT is not a good meteorologist or we don't have the right to predict ahead. Common sense.

Did you read what I said.
I was welcoming your opinion .
Not sure why I got a bullit point response to what I said.
2010 MT called it way before met or the UK met.
That has given him mine and a lot of others respect. Has he got it wrong sure plenty of times.

De Bild

However well i put a point i will not get one person's thumbs up! Bar JCX BXC. It just shows that if one is seen to be in anyway critical, nay not even critical, merely surprised at MT's exaulted status you will not be entertained.

Even if you have praised MT on many levels.

MJohnston

De Bild wrote: »

The right to say 'no i don't believe in long range forecasts' for a lay person, without providing proof should be allowed

Of course, but droidman, to take one example, doesn't do that. Instead they say long range forecasts are "spoof and waffle" (helpfully, he literally just posted this again a few posts above).

Do you not see how that is different from saying that you don't trust the science behind long range forecasts to be accurate?

If you don't see the difference, droidman is attributing characteristics to people who make long-range forecasts, he is literally calling people on this forum who have explained their science in great detail spoofers and wafflers. That's an insult, and it goes way beyond having the right to say that you don't believe in something - it attempts to undermine the poster making those forecasts, and it attempts to cast aspersions upon the people who choose to thank those forecasters for their contributions, as well as denigrating any level of serious discussion of long-range forecasting.

De Bild

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Did you read what I said.
I was welcoming your opinion .
Not sure why I got a bullit point response to what I said.
2010 MT called it way before met or the UK met.
That has given him mine and a lot of others respect. Has he got it wrong sure plenty of times.

Thank you. Excuse the bullit points, i'm German:)

Yes one year out of 7. I have followed since then too. I do not deny his excellence as a meteorologist but he should not be put at such a level in the firmament as if you look at his overall predictions he is at the same level as other forecasters.

droidman123

MJohnston wrote: »

Of course, but droidman, to take one example, doesn't do that. Instead they say long range forecasts are "spoof and waffle" (helpfully, he literally just posted this again a few posts above).

Do you not see how that is different from saying that you don't trust the science behind long range forecasts to be accurate?

If you don't see the difference, droidman is attributing characteristics to people who make long-range forecasts, he is literally calling people on this forum who have explained their science in great detail spoofers and wafflers. That's an insult, and it goes way beyond having the right to say that you don't believe in something - it attempts to undermine the poster making those forecasts, and it attempts to cast aspersions upon the people who choose to thank those forecasters for their contributions, as well as denigrating any level of serious discussion of long-range forecasting.

More blatent lies.i have insulted nobody and now you are just trying to "gather the troops".my opinion stands and no amount of angry people will change that

Reckless Abandonment

De Bild wrote: »

However well i put a point i will not get one person's thumbs up! Bar JCX BXC. It just shows that if one is seen to be in anyway critical, nay not even critical, merely surprised at MT's exaulted status you will not be entertained.

Even if you have praised MT on many levels.

But why be critical in the first place. What's the point of it.
"I don't believe in long range forecasts" Great then why the hell come into a winter discussion forum nearly a month before winter ?

MJohnston

I will also add that the right to say "I don't believe in long-range forecasts" doesn't protect you from the rights of other people to disagree with that opinion.

And if you happen to say something that the majority of people disagree with, that doesn't mean that they're "pilling on", it means that a majority of people disagree with you.

De Bild

MJohnston wrote: »

Of course, but droidman, to take one example, doesn't do that. Instead they say long range forecasts are "spoof and waffle" (helpfully, he literally just posted this again a few posts above).

Do you not see how that is different from saying that you don't trust the science behind long range forecasts to be accurate?

If you don't see the difference, droidman is attributing characteristics to people who make long-range forecasts, he is literally calling people on this forum who have explained their science in great detail spoofers and wafflers. That's an insult, and it goes way beyond having the right to say that you don't believe in something - it attempts to undermine the poster making those forecasts, and it attempts to cast aspersions upon the people who choose to thank those forecasters for their contributions, as well as denigrating any level of serious discussion of long-range forecasting.

Ok point taken.

I do not deny the serious scientific endeavour of men, as i have been informed, like MT to predict long range. I merely find among these LRF people his predictions have been exaggerated.

I do not claim that at some time in the future we will be able to predict long range scientifically. I believe in science.

MJohnston

droidman123 wrote: »

More blatent lies.i have insulted nobody and now you are just trying to "gather the troops".my opinion stands and no amount of angry people will change that

It's not up to you to decide whether other people are insulted by your words or not.

De Bild

MJohnston wrote: »

I will also add that the right to say "I don't believe in long-range forecasts" doesn't protect you from the rights of other people to disagree with that opinion.

And if you happen to say something that the majority of people disagree with, that doesn't mean that they're "pilling on", it means that a majority of people disagree with you.

There i disagree. I find the 'pilling on' effect here and on many internet fora. My own personal feeling.

De Bild

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

But why be critical in the first place. What's the point of it.
"I don't believe in long range forecasts" Great then why the hell come into a winter discussion forum nearly a month before winter ?

That happens on many subjects.

On the Christianity forum you'll find atheists posting and vice versa! There is nothing wrong with reading through the content of a winter forum a month out and being sceptical and offering your tuppence worth when you have considered everything.

Those who do believe in LRFs and attempted forecasting should be big enough to move on from a comment like that.

Soccarboy11

People giving long range forecasts for winter 2017/18 in a weather forum? Shocker ;o

If there was no long range forecasts that would defeat one of the points of the weather forum. It predicted Ophelia well in advance and before met uk or met eireann mentioned it. MT is well known around here and has been here for a long while, so he has built up a reputstion and people respect and that's why people enjoy reading his forecasts and look forward to them.

De Bild

Is there a fear that if posters on the thread don't fawn..maybe that word is a little strong.. don't overly praise M.T. that he will not do daily forecasts. He will say these people are so ungrateful why bother?

That's understandable.

But at the core of my questioning would be something like this..

Can MT be put on a par re. forecasting with Met UK? That is a serious question that i would be inclined to answer, no.

De Bild

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

People giving long range forecasts for winter 2017/18 in a weather forum? Shocker ;o

If there was no long range forecasts that would defeat one of the points of the weather forum. It predicted Ophelia well in advance and before met uk or met eireann mentioned it. MT is well known around here and has been here for a long while, so he has built up his respect and that's why people enjoy reading his forecasts and look forward to them.

You are not reading the thread. I'm questioning the validity of one person's LRF over another. Not the right to LRF.

I would not say predicted well in advance. UK Met Office, Met Eireann, the US etc all knew at the same time. But MT can go public much more quickly on a forum like this. One could not appear on tv for example 8 days before Ophelia telling the public a red alert storm was on the way. Too much time for change of track etc and you could cause a national alarm. A very small percentage of the population follow a forum like this.

De Bild

It is time to return to work.

Thank you all for debating graciously with me. I do not intend to insult anyone or belittle their efforts but i intended to state my opinion as logically as i could.

We may continue at another time. Thank you again.