Winter 2017-18: Discussion

mountainy man

The Netweather radar was showing the first signs of snow over Donegal this morning at 06.30 ish.

Pretty chilly out there with my first grass frost, overnight low of 1.6C.

Let the games begin!

Danno

WINTER FORECAST ... Now ready to make a winter forecast, generally speaking somewhat colder than most recent winters, with frequent bouts of wintry showers on higher ground in northwesterly winds, a pattern that may bring more snow to Connacht and Ulster than most of Leinster or Munster. I see some potential for a colder spell affecting eastern counties towards late January, but perhaps the more significant threat this winter will be a stormy interval setting in before Christmas and bringing a run of several rather strong storms in late December and the first part of January. There will be a fair mix of weather types overall not excluding some very mild days here and there. But the general trend will be a bit colder than average.

MT's Winter Forecast Summary as posted this morning... I thought this thread would be alive with discussion!

Seems like an interesting forecast that is best summarised as "Cold Zonal" probably akin to the winter of 1994-1995 if my memory serves me correctly.

Cold zonal can be an interesting setup but we don't get the prolonged spells of deep cold that an easterly continental feed brings. So, don't expect any weather records to fall unless we get a stern direct arctic blast like we did in the winter of 1995-6.

So, overall it's the turn of the west to get snow this winter, hopefully the midlands too if the wind can carry showers in this far. Maybe a polar low might come down in the flow also.

droidman123

Danno wrote: »

MT's Winter Forecast Summary as posted this morning... I thought this thread would be alive with discussion!

Seems like an interesting forecast that is best summarised as "Cold Zonal" probably akin to the winter of 1994-1995 if my memory serves me correctly.

Cold zonal can be an interesting setup but we don't get the prolonged spells of deep cold that an easterly continental feed brings. So, don't expect any weather records to fall unless we get a stern direct arctic blast like we did in the winter of 1995-6.

So, overall it's the turn of the west to get snow this winter, hopefully the midlands too if the wind can carry showers in this far.

If you believe anyone can forecast what our weather will be like next January santa Claus must be real too.

MJohnston

Danno wrote: »

MT's Winter Forecast Summary as posted this morning... I thought this thread would be alive with discussion!

Seems like an interesting forecast that is best summarised as "Cold Zonal" probably akin to the winter of 1994-1995 if my memory serves me correctly.

Cold zonal can be an interesting setup but we don't get the prolonged spells of deep cold that an easterly continental feed brings. So, don't expect any weather records to fall unless we get a stern direct arctic blast like we did in the winter of 1995-6.

So, overall it's the turn of the west to get snow this winter, hopefully the midlands too if the wind can carry showers in this far. Maybe a polar low might come down in the flow also.

He posted a more detailed forecast in this thread just a few posts above

MJohnston

droidman123 wrote: »

If you believe anyone can forecast what our weather will be like next January santa Claus must be real too.

Why do you bother reading the Weather forum if you actually think that?

droidman123

MJohnston wrote: »

Why do you bother reading the Weather forum if you actually think that?

I don't think it,I know it.i read the weather forum because the weather is a lot more than just forecasting.if you read his "forecast" it covers almost every eventuality,......stormy,cold periods,warm periods.do you seriously think I am taken in by this spoof? Only the naive will take that with a pinch of creedence, I am not one of them.

MJohnston

droidman123 wrote: »

I don't think it,I know it.i read the weather forum because the weather is a lot more than just forecasting.if you read his "forecast" it covers almost every eventuality,......stormy,cold periods,warm periods.do you seriously think I am taken in by this spoof? Only the naive will take that with a pinch of creedence, I am not one of them.

Sad stuff.

sryanbruen

Danno wrote: »

MT's Winter Forecast Summary as posted this morning... I thought this thread would be alive with discussion!

Seems like an interesting forecast that is best summarised as "Cold Zonal" probably akin to the winter of 1994-1995 if my memory serves me correctly.

Cold zonal can be an interesting setup but we don't get the prolonged spells of deep cold that an easterly continental feed brings. So, don't expect any weather records to fall unless we get a stern direct arctic blast like we did in the winter of 1995-6.

So, overall it's the turn of the west to get snow this winter, hopefully the midlands too if the wind can carry showers in this far. Maybe a polar low might come down in the flow also.

I think it is Winter 1993/94 you're looking for . It was a White Christmas as well as February having some notable snowfalls though January was rather mild. Winter 1994/95 was very mild and was the wettest Winter on record 'til 2013/14 in many places.

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

If you believe anyone can forecast what our weather will be like next January santa Claus must be real too.

I think we all have our own opinions droidman, like you, and I think it would be respectful if we carried out our discussion on this in a good spirited manner? Nobody wants a big argument (I hope).

I don't think it's particularly fair to ridicule others views and then categorically state that your own opinion is just as valid as anyone elses (which, I have an issue with myself but that's more suited to after hours or the politics forum).

As I don't wish to involve myself in any sort of sniping, I won't be replying to further comments unless they are in a good spirited form, thanks.

pad199207

Seems like another re run of the Crappy wet snow in off the Atlantic for Connaught and Ulster.

Be another long wait before we see the proper real cold and snow in from the east again

Danno

MJohnston wrote: »

He posted a more detailed forecast in this thread just a few posts above

Whoops, missed that!

droidman123

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah Jesus Christ you again.

We all know your viewpoint, how about you make it respectfully like an adult? Most of us like to conform with this posting style.

Until this, I'd advise fellow users to just ignore, we've had enough arguments about this on here without being wound up again.

I have zero interest in who ignores me or not,I have an opinion,if you agree or disagree that is fine,but my opinions are as valid as anyone elses

pad199207

droidman123 wrote: »

I have zero interest in who ignores me or not,I have an opinion,if you agree or disagree that is fine,but my opinions are as valid as anyone elses

Yes but when you start adding in ‘santa claus’ and whatever else then your validity is questionable.

But yes I agree everyone is entitled to own opinions.

MJohnston

droidman123 wrote: »

I have zero interest in who ignores me or not,I have an opinion,if you agree or disagree that is fine,but my opinions are as valid as anyone elses

No, that’s not accurate. Your opinion is less valid because your posts communicate far less scientific understanding or intelligence. All opinions are not equal, as meteorology is not a philosophical arena, it is a scientific one.

droidman123

pad199207 wrote: »

Yes but when you start adding in ‘santa claus’ and whatever else then your validity is questionable.

But yes I agree everyone is entitled to own opinions.

I only used Santa Claus as a metaphor, I did not intend any smartassness.

JCX BXC

pad199207 wrote: »

Seems like another re run of the Crappy wet snow in off the Atlantic for Connaught and Ulster.

Be another long wait before we see the proper real cold and snow in from the east again

Hopefully we get something in West Clare this year, it's getting a little depressing.

konman

ah here we go again, droidman, i think most of us know your opinion at this stage. Broken record and all that.

droidman123

konman wrote: »

ah here we go again, droidman, i think most of us know your opinion at this stage. Broken record and all that.

Thanks for that informative input

MJohnston

droidman123 wrote: »

Thanks for that informative input

You’ve made it pretty clear you don’t “believe” informative input, so it’s hardly a surprise people are responding to your insults like-for-like.

Meteorite58

Mod Note : There are unacceptable comments being made . Posters are reminded to adhere to the forum charter.

Iancar29

First time this season ( that I know of ) that wintry ppn showing up on radar. However with current temp/dps I think its just picking up hail. Still good to see though.

nagdefy

MJohnston wrote: »

No, that’s not accurate. Your opinion is less valid because your posts communicate far less scientific understanding or intelligence. All opinions are not equal, as meteorology is not a philosophical arena, it is a scientific one.

All opinions are not equal...

I have the utmost respect for MT and the work he does on the weather fora. Also others like sryan who attempt to make long range predictions based on science.

I'd argue though that Evelyn Cusack and Met Eireann's opinions on Long Range Forecasting are as equal and valid as anyone on this site though.

I'd agree with those opinions expressed at 1min 16sec in from 3 years ago. See below.

Though her last quote from Sagon is a little pop at religion i feel, which is out of order for a weather forecast. I feel she's bringing her own personal beliefs into a weather forecast.

JCX BXC

Well made point.

I wouldn't entirely agree, I think there are some general weather factors that can help us understand weather in the future to a degree, however they aren't suitable for saying with any definite degree that you'll get xxx weather. However, organisations like Met Eireann are forecasting what the weather will most likely be like, they're not in the game of giving uncertain probabilities outside the reliable range.

Nobody will be ever able to say "this winter will be very snowy" or "this winter will have no snow whatsoever", as they are very specific, but general terms like MT thinking this winter will be slightly cooler than average are possibly in my opinion.

nagdefy

JCX BXC wrote: »

Well made point.

I wouldn't entirely agree, I think there are some general weather factors that can help us understand weather in the future to a degree, however they aren't suitable for saying with any definite degree that you'll get xxx weather. However, organisations like Met Eireann are forecasting what the weather will most likely be like, they're not in the game of giving uncertain probabilities outside the reliable range.

Nobody will be ever able to say "this winter will be very snowy" or "this winter will have no snow whatsoever", as they are very specific, but general terms like MT thinking this winter will be slightly cooler than average are possibly in my opinion.

I understand. Personally i feel that when we review LRFs in early March they are a complete mixed bag and are never much stronger than guess work. Again it's only my opinion and i in no way mean to insult anyone or their views. I suppose every year science is developing too and more variables are being input into forecasts.

nagdefy

Re. LRFs maybe a month out but i find it hard to accept a prediction for mid January.

esposito

Danno wrote: »

So, overall it's the turn of the west to get snow this winter, hopefully the midlands too if the wind can carry showers in this far. Maybe a polar low might come down in the flow also.

Don't take it as gospel that it will turn out like that. I think it's just too damn difficult to predict with any accuracy beyond a month.

HighLine

Fully agree with the actual experts, namely Evelyn above, who call it like it as in saying long range forecasting is not possible. It's funny however on here how some tabloids and the likes of Ken Ring are correctly ridiculed but other posters suggesting they can predict how our weather will be in February 2018 are encouraged. Especially strange considering how inaccurate previous long range attempts have been.

Oneiric 3

nagdefy wrote: »

All opinions are not equal...
Though her last quote from Sagon is a little pop at religion i feel, which is out of order for a weather forecast. I feel she's bringing her own personal beliefs into a weather forecast.

It's always amused me that scientists in particular are quick to attribute that particular quote to Carl Sagan, when it fact is by Danish social scientist Marcello Truzzi. Have the greatest respect for scientists, but they often strike me as not really having much clue about anything outside of their field.

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

All opinions are not equal...

I have the utmost respect for MT and the work he does on the weather fora. Also others like sryan who attempt to make long range predictions based on science.

I'd argue though that Evelyn Cusack and Met Eireann's opinions on Long Range Forecasting are as equal and valid as anyone on this site though.

I'd agree with those opinions expressed at 1min 16sec in from 3 years ago. See below.

Though her last quote from Sagon is a little pop at religion i feel, which is out of order for a weather forecast. I feel she's bringing her own personal beliefs into a weather forecast.

Thanks. I try to keep my forecasting as accurate as possible with the methodology I use.

I acted like a dick before saying I know what’s going to happen for absolute certain - me being one of the posters I think HighLine was getting at in his above comment.

He is right. Long range forecasting is impossible and is highly experimental. You’re either right through science/complete random guesses or not. No certainty whatsoever.

I have respect for people like MT because he actually tries to put work into making these predictions unlike somebody like let’s say James Madden, Nathan Rao etc. But even that isn’t any different at the end of the day as it’s still experimental and a complete guess. You will always find odd ones out with the methodology we use to predict our weather. Our atmosphere is always willing to give us some surprises.

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

Thanks. I try to keep my forecasting as accurate as possible with the methodology I use.

I acted like a dick before saying I know what’s going to happen for absolute certain - me being one of the posters I think HighLine was getting at in his above comment.

He is right. Long range forecasting is impossible and is highly experimental. You’re either right through science/complete random guesses or not. No certainty whatsoever.

I have respect for people like MT because he actually tries to put work into making these predictions unlike somebody like let’s say James Madden, Nathan Rao etc. But even that isn’t any different at the end of the day as it’s still experimental and a complete guess. You will always find odd ones out with the methodology we use to predict our weather. Our atmosphere is always willing to give us some surprises.

I wouldn't think anyone is having a go at MT or yourself Sryan as you outline step by step why you are predicting whatever conditions and back it up with historical context. It's interesting to have a go.

Your knowledge is increasing year on year and i have a feeling in 5 years time your predictions will be as accurate as any out there:) We're probably still a few decades off real LRF accuracy though in my opinion and many will say there are too many factors and it's nigh on impossible. We'll see. Who knows.

Just felt at the end of the report i copied Evelyn was have a nice go at those clinging to the comfort of delusion as if science had proved absolutely everything at this stage of human development. Personally i'd find that a little offensive.