100 Bets to Broke Festival Fever

longshotvalue

8:20 Roscommon

My Irish form isn’t the greatest in all honesty but I can’t resist a bet here on Damut. He has some classy form in comparison to most of these and although he was poor last time out over a shorter trip hopefully that will have put him right for this race. He looks like he needs the step up and 25/1 is value .


1 Point EW 25/1 4 Places generally

sting60

The amateurs race at Leopardstown tonight is full of horse's bred for soft ground .Mr Fiftyone and Powerbomb stand out as needing it soft at the very least and both are very short in the markets.Social Treasure looks like a horse been readied for the amature race at Galway and if so cannot win but will come on tons for the run for a stable in shocking form considering his quality of horse's available.Gavin Cromwell has booked Jamie Codd(had plenty of choices in this) for Elusive Ivy 11/2 .The mare has won on heavy but her breeding suggests she will be fine on this quick ground and is a serious player.The word out west is that Dot Love thinks her horse Lucky Pat will run a big race.Firmament 7/4 looks a decent bet as he needs it like a road and should win a weak Group 3 at 7.20.

Francie Barrett

sting60 wrote: »

The amateurs race at Leopardstown tonight is full of horse's bred for soft ground .Mr Fiftyone and Powerbomb stand out as needing it soft at the very least and both are very short in the markets.Social Treasure looks like a horse been readied for the amature race at Galway and if so cannot win but will come on tons for the run for a stable in shocking form considering his quality of horse's available.Gavin Cromwell has booked Jamie Codd(had plenty of choices in this) for Elusive Ivy 11/2 .The mare has won on heavy but her breeding suggests she will be fine on this quick ground and is a serious player.The word out west is that Dot Love thinks her horse Lucky Pat will run a big race.Firmament 7/4 looks a decent bet as he needs it like a road and should win a weak Group 3 at 7.20.

For me Constancio ticks all the boxes based on breeding, going, and track. Form obviously a bit of a doubt, but I am willing to take a chance that as a very lightly raced 4 year old it's open to improvement. 10/1 best odds now.

madmoose

With it being longshot i have backed two in the Ribblesdale at Ascot that look big prices. Both ran in the Musiadora at York 2nd and 3rd behind Shutter Speed who runs in the French Oaks Sunday.

Vintage Folly 33/1 - After York Hugo Palmer confirmed this race as the next target and skipped the Oaks.

Serenada 40/1 - Varian sending this to this race and said the soft ground was well against this filly lto but still ran a respectable 2 3/4 L behind Shutter Speed.

Both seem big ew prices to me and you aren't going to see Shutter Speed, Enable, Rhodedandron line up as other targets are in mind i would imagine. Mori is the current fav at 9/2 and is the frankel/midday filly which has looked good in each race it has ran but the two above just look big ew prices.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

For me Constancio ticks all the boxes based on breeding, going, and track. Form obviously a bit of a doubt, but I am willing to take a chance that as a very lightly raced 4 year old it's open to improvement. 10/1 best odds now.

You cannot be fcukin' serious :pac:

Earendil

Francie Barrett wrote: »

You cannot be fcukin' serious :pac:

Christ Francie, that was brutal.
Take some solace in the fact you picked the winner...before he tried to commit suicide.

ThumbTaxed

Re above, look it is worth a punt. I made 250e on such a bet on Tuesday

Guffy

Is this not Aidan's thread lads? Could ye not stcick to the fancies thread or something?

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

With it being longshot i have backed two in the Ribblesdale at Ascot that look big prices. Both ran in the Musiadora at York 2nd and 3rd behind Shutter Speed who runs in the French Oaks Sunday.

Vintage Folly 33/1 - After York Hugo Palmer confirmed this race as the next target and skipped the Oaks.

Serenada 40/1 - Varian sending this to this race and said the soft ground was well against this filly lto but still ran a respectable 2 3/4 L behind Shutter Speed.

Both seem big ew prices to me and you aren't going to see Shutter Speed, Enable, Rhodedandron line up as other targets are in mind i would imagine. Mori is the current fav at 9/2 and is the frankel/midday filly which has looked good in each race it has ran but the two above just look big ew prices.

6 day stage both left in and loads taken out, 16/1 and 20/1 now. Mori, Alluringly and Coronet still in though.

longshotvalue

York 2:20
I think Stipulate is overpriced here. He has looked a bit better of late over shorter trips and this could be ideal. He is on a decent mark, and 20./1 is just too big.
1 Point win 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue

3:10 Musselburgh
Line of Reason has always taken a few runs to get into form and I think he ran well in the Dash when losing places late. If he is better for that run he can get involved here of a workable mark. I picked Move in Time for the dash and he was eye-catching enough to be interested here at a huge price.
1 Point win Line of Reason 20/1 vc/coral/lads
1 Point win Move in Time 28/1 vc/lads 25/1 generally

BrianBoru00

Another big one!!:D:D

idnkph

aidankkk wrote:

3:10 Musselburgh Line of Reason has always taken a few runs to get into form and I think he ran well in the Dash when losing places late. If he is better for that run he can get involved here of a workable mark. I picked Move in Time for the dash and he was eye-catching enough to be interested here at a huge price. 1 Point win Line of Reason 20/1 vc/coral/lads 1 Point win Move in Time 28/1 vc/lads 25/1 generally

Thank you aidan

minibear

Thanks Aidan

hullabulloo

Hero

Bozo Skeleton

Thanks again Aidan.
I was out of the country the week you put up Burnt Sugar and the 40-1 winner, I didn't get on either, delighted for all who did!
Great stuff again today you legend.

convert

Closing this thread until I can read through the last few pages of abusive and unnecessary posts. They drag threads off topic and need to be avoided.

convert

Ok, I know it's taken a little longer than expected, but I've had a quick read through the last few pages and have deleted a number of posts. As I mentioned in my post above, is an interesting thread with an active and enthusiastic following. Please don't ruin it by dragging it off topic and posting in an unhelpful and insulting manner. From this point, anyone who does so will be taking a break from the forum. And, as always, thanks to those of you who used the 'report post' function. Not only does it bring things to the mods' attention; it also means you're doing something about it rather than taking matters into your own hands!

MyStubbleItches

convert wrote: »

Ok, I know it's taken a little longer than expected, but I've had a quick read through the last few pages and have deleted a number of posts. As I mentioned in my post above, is an interesting thread with an active and enthusiastic following. Please don't ruin it by dragging it off topic and posting in an unhelpful and insulting manner. From this point, anyone who does so will be taking a break from the forum. And, as always, thanks to those of you who used the 'report post' function. Not only does it bring things to the mods' attention; it also means you're doing something about it rather than taking matters into your own hands!

On the assumption that I'll be banned for this, perhaps if you, as a moderator of this forum, checked in more than once in a while, it wouldn't come to this. You appear here when a storm is in full flow, you ban/infract posters willy-nilly, get very high horsey and disappear again. Or you might promote a coffee morning for a point-to-point if you feel like getting involved in the forum. If you have no interest in day to day horse racing, relinquish your moderatorship, otherwise get involved in it as a fan, not just a fair weather feminist.

Slattsy

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

On the assumption that I'll be banned for this, perhaps if you, as a moderator of this forum, checked in more than once in a while, it wouldn't come to this. You appear here when a storm is in full flow, you ban/infract posters willy-nilly, get very high horsey and disappear again. Or you might promote a coffee morning for a point-to-point if you feel like getting involved in the forum. If you have no interest in day to day horse racing, relinquish your moderatorship, otherwise get involved in it as a fan, not just a fair weather feminist.

Nail. On. Head.

Enjoy your holiday.

MyStubbleItches

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

On the assumption that I'll be banned for this, perhaps if you, as a moderator of this forum, checked in more than once in a while, it wouldn't come to this. You appear here when a storm is in full flow, you ban/infract posters willy-nilly, get very high horsey and disappear again. Or you might promote a coffee morning for a point-to-point if you feel like getting involved in the forum. If you have no interest in day to day horse racing, relinquish your moderatorship, otherwise get involved in it as a fan, not just a fair weather feminist.

To be fair I'm not one for having a go at any Mod but I have to agree here. I suggest that Convert consider the point made and give it thought.

Mr_Roger_Bongos

I can't speak to Converts actions elsewhere on the forum, but on this thread

• It's Aidan's thread for posting his bet log
• Questions to him/thanks for sharing his great picks is all that should be posted
• The problem started because of lads posting their own tips (which should be in the fancies thread) and then started slagging each other off the back of it
• Short bans seem justified to correct the above

If people stop posting their own tips and flaming each other then hopefully we get back to a functioning thread.

brilou23

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

I can't speak to Converts actions elsewhere on the forum, but on this thread

• It's Aidan's thread for posting his bet log
• Questions to him/thanks for sharing his great picks is all that should be posted
• The problem started because of lads posting their own tips (which should be in the fancies thread) and then started slagging each other off the back of it
• Short bans seem justified to correct the above

If people stop posting their own tips and flaming each other then hopefully we get back to a functioning thread.

+1

PM me nudes

The problem is we're all a bunch of wasters that can't be trusted as mods :pac:

longshotvalue

2:30

There looks to be a significant chance that there could be a few shocks in this race as the fav is drawn on the wing and I'm not convinced by many here. Cougar Mountain wants a really quick 1 mile on good/firm and that is I'm what he will get today . On this years form he would appear to have no chance but he has run good races in stronger groups 1 than this before and 50/1 is value .

1 point ew 50/1 Sky / Vc / lads

longshotvalue

3:40

Cotai Glory will have only 1 big target this year and that is today . He was second for us last year at a huge price and is available again at a big looking 33/1 with 4 places . If he has normal improvement from 4-5 and also finds a couple of pounds on faster ground he has a decent chance here . 33/1 is value for race form here over the years .

1 point ew 4 places 1/4 365 33/1 1/5 various

longshotvalue

4:20

Surprise surprise , this is the easiest pick of the week . Lancaster Bomber is about 6/4 to place here on decent ground and 25/1 is silly .

2 points ew 25/1 1/4 365 25/1 1/5 generally

longshotvalue

5:00

Suegioo looks the classiest horse in this race and with it being such a tight handicap he isn't giving much weight to anything here . He looks a near certainty to be in the first 5 places . Both his group form last year and gradual improvement this year in handicaps makes a strong case for him here . 22/1 with 5 places seems too big.

2 points ew 22/1 5 places lads/ sky 20/1 paddy

longshotvalue

3:05

Us Navy Flag wasn't that far behind Brother Bear in Ireland after showing speed early on ground that would be too soft . If he gets the usual improvement fir far ground he is certainly bred to take a hand here at a huge price . I think it's somewhat significant that he is coming at all as he won't be a pacemaker in this race .

1 point ew 50/1 4 places Generally .

Mr_Roger_Bongos

The Bomber really went for that from the off! So close to holding off Barney.

Nice pick, thanks!