100 Bets to Broke Festival Fever

madmoose

Must be some profit this week aid

longshotvalue

Can't see in mobile did listeriosis light get 5th . Very close

Lougarden

aidankkk wrote: »

Can't see in mobile did listeriosis light get 5th . Very close

V close but sixties groove 5th, mainstream 6th and then l light 7th (taken from sporting life results)

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00
Donjuan Triumphant looked a sprinter going places with a couple of very good runs early last year that were group 1 class. He fell away a bit after that but has popped up here on a workable mark at a huge price drawn high and that could be a potent combination today. He also stays a bit further than 6 furlongs which is an advantage in these races around here. Any repeat of his 2^nd to Quiet Reflection or Signs of Blessing here and well be counting our money. He is a big price because of 2 underwhelming performances this year but his last run was a big improvement and im hopeful today will have been the plan. 40/1 with 6 places seems just huge.
2 Points EW 40/1 6 places Paddy 33/1 6 places Sky           
I’m also going for another Group 1 Sprinter in Danzeo . He has just dropped too far in mark after a couple of reasonable runs and I’m convinced he wont be far away here. He is drawn in the middle which is a disadvantage but at least he will be able to choose depending on the earlier race. 22/1 looks a bit overpriced.
1 Point EW 22/1 6 places Paddy/Sky
4:20
Growl is just too big a price here after a couple of poor enough runs over too far and on soft ground. Today will surly be the day he is 100% and with course and distance group 1 form to his name last year 33/1 is great value.
1 Point EW 33/1 Paddy 4 places 25/1 4 places generally
I’m going with a cliff horse of mine that will do something for me some day Finsbury Square has shown signs of late that he can get involved in one of these at a huge price. I’m hoping the 6 furlongs here will suit him and 80/1 is a big enough price to take the risk.
1 Point ew 8/1 coral/vc/lads
3:40
My Dream Boat looks the value in here as a proper group 1 horse in a group 2. There is nothing between a lot of these and the top 2 seems pretty short as they are stayers and might be caught for pace here.18/1 is big
1 Point win 18/1 coral 16/1 Generally.

longshotvalue

5:30

Vent de Force will have to come back to form to get involved but if he does he will go close . He is a solid 108 at least on a lot of his previous form and I think he showed enough last time to be of interest here at 20/1.

1 point win 20/1 sky 18/1 generally

longshotvalue

3:05

Muntazah looks value here judging on a few of his very good group performances last year . The fav is very short on what he has done and is creating a lot of value . 22/1 is just too big .

1 point ew 22/1 paddy /vc

minibear

aidankkk wrote: »

3:40
My Dream Boat looks the value in here as a proper group 1 horse in a group 2. There is nothing between a lot of these and the top 2 seems pretty short as they are stayers and might be caught for pace here.18/1 is big
1 Point win 18/1 coral 16/1 Generally.

My Dream Boat N/R

longshotvalue

3:40
My Dream Boat is now a non-runner, so I’m going to go with a horse I was thinking of anyway. I learned a long while ago to never let a Jim Bolger horse go off too big and Stellar Mass is a  huge price here. He went on a very good run of form last year including a top class run in the Irish derby and comes here with 1 fairly poor prep run resulting in a huge price. He doesn’t have that much to make up on a lot of these and 50/1 is worth the risk even if the place terms here aren’t great.
1 Point ew 50/1 ¼ place 365/coral/lads and more.

idnkph

aidankkk wrote:

3:40 My Dream Boat is now a non-runner, so I’m going to go with a horse I was thinking of anyway. I learned a long while ago to never let a Jim Bolger horse go off too big and Stellar Mass is a huge price here. He went on a very good run of form last year including a top class run in the Irish derby and comes here with 1 fairly poor prep run resulting in a huge price. He doesn’t have that much to make up on a lot of these and 50/1 is worth the risk even if the place terms here aren’t great. 1 Point ew 50/1 ¼ place 365/coral/lads and more.

I'm on stellar mass myself and now Iv seen you fancy it I'm getting more excited. Amazing picking all week Aidan. Cheers

Gavin "shels"

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot 5:00
I’m also going for another Group 1 Sprinter in Danzeo . He has just dropped too far in mark after a couple of reasonable runs and I’m convinced he wont be far away here. He is drawn in the middle which is a disadvantage but at least he will be able to choose depending on the earlier race. 22/1 looks a bit overpriced.
1 Point EW 22/1 6 places Paddy/Sky

Lovely place money! Thought he was going to do it tbh

longshotvalue

Kilbeggan 6:25
Following my picks in Irish Jump racing is like setting fire to money but I can’t resist a small bet here on Gentleman Duke. He is on a nice mark here over hurdles compared to his jumps mark, has had two decent runs lately over fences and has won of this mark over hurdles as well. He has been a disappointing horse in general but is bottom of the weights with a  very good claimer booked. 14/1 is probably value
1 Point win 14/1 vc/paddy/betfair 12/1 generally

Danick

aidankkk wrote: »

Kilbeggan 6:25
Following my picks in Irish Jump racing is like setting fire to money but I can’t resist a small bet here on Gentleman Duke. He is on a nice mark here over hurdles compared to his jumps mark, has had two decent runs lately over fences and has won of this mark over hurdles as well. He has been a disappointing horse in general but is bottom of the weights with a  very good claimer booked. 14/1 is probably value
1 Point win 14/1 vc/paddy/betfair 12/1 generally

Thanks - sounds good to me

danganabu

aidankkk wrote: »

Kilbeggan 6:25
Following my picks in Irish Jump racing is like setting fire to money

Perhaps, but thanks to you we all have plenty of it to burn

longshotvalue

8:20 Naas

Jigsaw caught the eye fir me last time out when it looked like the penny eventually dropped and she decided to put her head down and run . I put her in the tracker with a note about a possibly decent mark . She has that here and if donnacha can get her going early she has a chance in a weak race . 16/1 is worth the risk .

1 point ew 16/1 paddy and Betfair

Francie Barrett

Any thoughts on the Northumberland Plate Aidan? I see a whole pile of horses entered I could back, but I can't help but feel that Clever Cookie at 28/1 is a monster price even considering its age and it carrying top weight.

longshotvalue

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Any thoughts on the Northumberland Plate Aidan? I see a whole pile of horses entered I could back, but I can't help but feel that Clever Cookie at 28/1 is a monster price even considering its age and it carrying top weight.

Ill probably look this evening but he'll be on my shortlist for sure, i liked his first run this year. He is a big price because of a poor next run, but he wont be too far away.

There is the option of picking up the easy place money on Suegioo at a big price as well but im not sure he can win really , whereas Clever Cookie could . The problem with the race now that i have a quick look is there is a couple of hugely likely placers, like higher power and seamore which might make the place price of a few of the outsiders not seems as good value.

Its also now a big dog race on a silly surface which kind of ruins it a bit.

longshotvalue

Newcastle 7:00

A while ago Jack Dexter was a bit of a cliff horse of mine, and although we did alright with him i think we got more places than wins. Having watched his last race again I'm pretty sure he is ready to go in soon enough. He met all kinds of trouble in the Scottish Sprint Cup and appeared to be full of running. He looks worth the risk here at 12/1. To me he has a better than average chance of winning here and he is about the average price of the field here in an open race. 9/1 might be a more accurate estimate of his true price


1 Point win 12/1 365/paddy/stan/betfair/bright/marathon

Bozo Skeleton

4th. Ladbrokes was paying 4 places, according to Oddschecker. Unfortunately I did it with Paddys!

longshotvalue

3:30 Newcastle

This race is more or less ruined by the stupid surface but still it’s an interesting race today. I had 3 that I just couldn’t choose between so I’ve gone with 2. Gavlar ran as well as could be expected in this last year having to come from the very back of this mark and has plenty of decent runs around here on this surface. He was decent in his last run over too short a trip and I think he will surly have today as his main target. 40/1 with 5 or 6 places is just too big. Clever Cookie is my other pick here at a huge price. His first run this year in a group 2 was decent and if he takes to this surface he should be able to get involved even of top weight. 40/1 is easily big enough to make it worth the risk. My other horse is Suegioo and I’ll probably have a small saver win only just in case.


1 Point EW Gavlar 40/1 6 places sky 5 places paddy/betfair
1 Point EW Clever Cookie 33/1 6 places sky 5 places paddy/betfair 40/1 4 places elsewhere

longshotvalue

5:20 Curragh

I’m utterly stuck here between 3 bets . I think Wings of Eagles could just walk this as he is improving rapidly, essentially won the Epson Derby with a fair bit in hand and should be really suited by the Curragh. Douglas Macarthur is certainly the second best of Aidan’s but 14/1 isn’t really an ew price. 100/1 is too big for The Anvil on his Chester run if we can ignore the Epson run. I’ve had another look at the French Derby and I think Waldgeist if far too short here.



The Anvil had to work far too hard uphill in the early stages of the Epson Derby to have any hope of staying there come the finish, whereas Douglas McArthur was running within his comfort zone on the uphill part. I think Taj Mahal isn’t good enough as he is now fully exposed and I don’t think Capri is value at 9/1. If in doubt no AOB horse is 100/1 in this race and on his Chester run I’m going to go with the hugely predictable selection of The Anvil at 100/1. Let’s face it he is a 66/1 shot here but that is just too much of a margin to give up. We’ll know our fate early because if he goes to the front but doesn’t go mad there like Epson he may be a bit more difficult to pass here.


1 Point EW 100/1 365 ¼ place The Anvil 1/5 place elsewhere

longshotvalue

4:10 Curragh
Tinder is the outsider of the field here but she has some very good form as a 2yo and we can safely ignore her last run over too short a trip. She was 3rd of this mark in the Birdcatcher last year and I wouldn’t be at all surprised is she finds improvement here for a stable in form, stepped up in trip. 25/1 is worth the risk.
1 Point win 25/1 365/sky/stan
3:40 Curragh
We’ve decided to follow Dinkum Diamond and were getting a decent price here because of a poor run last time out. This might just be his trip and I’ll take a chance at a huge price that he can improve today 25/1 is worth the risk
1 Point win 25/1 Generally

tryfix

aidankkk wrote: »

5:20 Curragh

I’m utterly stuck here between 3 bets . I think Wings of Eagles could just walk this as he is improving rapidly, essentially won the Epson Derby with a fair bit in hand and should be really suited by the Curragh. Douglas Macarthur is certainly the second best of Aidan’s but 14/1 isn’t really an ew price. 100/1 is too big for The Anvil on his Chester run if we can ignore the Epson run. I’ve had another look at the French Derby and I think Waldgeist if far too short here.



The Anvil had to work far too hard uphill in the early stages of the Epson Derby to have any hope of staying there come the finish, whereas Douglas McArthur was running within his comfort zone on the uphill part. I think Taj Mahal isn’t good enough as he is now fully exposed and I don’t think Capri is value at 9/1. If in doubt no AOB horse is 100/1 in this race and on his Chester run I’m going to go with the hugely predictable selection of The Anvil at 100/1. Let’s face it he is a 66/1 shot here but that is just too much of a margin to give up. We’ll know our fate early because if he goes to the front but doesn’t go mad there like Epson he may be a bit more difficult to pass here.


1 Point EW 100/1 365 ¼ place The Anvil 1/5 place elsewhere

Wouldn't knock your Anvil proposal.

I don't agree that Taj Mahal is fully exposed, he hasn't gone 12f yet and despite making the running he has stayed on well everytime he's run over 10f including as a 2yo over 10f on the soft. He's gone up to a 113 OR this year while sticking to 10f. Unfortunately he's likely running for fourth as are all the outsiders, it would take a monumental flop from one of the big three to let any of the outsiders in for a place, athough if WOE cannot replicate his Derby form then 3rd place becomes a lot easier to attain.

It was a pet peeve of mine that Gleneagles never moved up from a mile, the recent staying on performances of Taj Mahal and Decorated Knight ( practically a full brother to the pair) have done nothing to dispel the notion that Gleneagles never got the chance to improve over further.

longshotvalue

3:00 Newcastle
Velvet Revolution may not have been suited by either the Firm Ground of the slow race last time out but does look a horse to follow over these trips and is less exposed than most of the field. The stable looks to be getting back to form and 14/1 is value
1 Point win 14/1 Generally

longshotvalue

tryfix wrote: »

Wouldn't knock your Anvil proposal.

I don't agree that Taj Mahal is fully exposed, he hasn't gone 12f yet and despite making the running he has stayed on well everytime he's run over 10f including as a 2yo over 10f on the soft. He's gone up to a 113 OR this year while sticking to 10f. Unfortunately he's likely running for fourth as are all the outsiders, it would take a monumental flop from one of the big three to let any of the outsiders in for a place, athough if WOE cannot replicate his Derby form then 3rd place becomes a lot easier to attain.

It was a pet peeve of mine that Gleneagles never moved up from a mile, the recent staying on performances of Taj Mahal and Decorated Knight ( practically a full brother to the pair) have done nothing to dispel the notion that Gleneagles never got the chance to improve over further.

Your probably right about Taj Mahal, and I didnt think the EW value was there. My main point is i don't like the French horse at all really and he easily beat Taj Mahal last time out. All that said I think Douglas MacArthur is a certainly to be in the 3 so one of the big 3 isn't going to pass him here. Im trying to work in a combo forecast some way. maybe Wings/Douglas/Cracksman in that order. I must look on 365 and string together a few combos for the laugh.

longshotvalue

Ive gone mad on a few 123's on 365. mainly on wings/dougles/cracksman etc

Value wise the best looking of the lot is an AOB 123 , Wing/Douglas/Capri at 160/1 Wing/doug/cracksman pays 76

tryfix

aidankkk wrote: »

Your probably right about Taj Mahal, and I didnt think the EW value was there. My main point is i don't like the French horse at all really and he easily beat Taj Mahal last time out. All that said I think Douglas MacArthur is a certainly to be in the 3 so one of the big 3 isn't going to pass him here. Im trying to work in a combo forecast some way. maybe Wings/Douglas/Cracksman in that order. I must look on 365 and string together a few combos for the laugh.

There's a lot of maybes.

As I see it the Anvil will make it with Douglas and Taj Mahal sitting handy from Cracksman and Waldgeist with the rest in behind. When the Anvil gives way to the other two then Waldgeist and Cracksman will be waiting to pounce. Cracksman may go first but nothing in the field should be fast enough to keep the lead when Waldgeist shoots to the front. Then it'll be a matter of catch me if you can and either Cracksman or Woe will catch him or he'll stroll home.

longshotvalue

4:20 Curragh

There is a fairly simple pick here on ratings and price. Intricately has been improving this year to a very good 4th in the Irish 1000 las time out only a short head away from 2nd. That form has been strengthened again at Ascot and 28/1 getting 10lbs here is just too good to ignore.


1 Point EW 28/1 Paddy / Betfair 22/1 generally

longshotvalue

2:45 Curragh

I’m going against my normal type of selection here and going near the top of the market. I’m always willing to forgive 1 bad run and Desert Law was flying this year until a poor run last time in Musselburgh where everything that competed came from off the pace. He sluiced up in a Conditions race first time out this year and ran a big race in the dash after that. He is still 6 pounds lower than he last 2 runs in this race where he was placed each time. 14/1 is value


1 Point win 14/1 Generally

longshotvalue

4:15 Windsor
Stellarta seems a big price here for a horse with very good course form that has been running well this year. I’m pretty sure she can’t be far away here at 16/1 is much bigger than I would have expected.
1 Point win 16/1 Generally

longshotvalue

4:50 Curragh
I had a look at this race this morning and immediately though Forgotten Rules might end up value here. HE is a typical Weld horse in that he just isn’t seen on the track enough. I think this race may be a bit weaker than it first appears. As much as Wicklow Brave in one of my favourite horses he is overrated on 115. Even if the trip is shorter than ideal he is no 9/1 shot here.
1 Point win 9/1 Generally