Is the EU actually about to break up?

BlinkingLights

In the medium term / long term the UK will be ok but I think they are in for a short term mess tbh.

The worst case scenario would be Brexit while Trump has somehow caused a global recession - not beyond the realms of possibility!

2017 has a lot of unknowns and potential to get very strange.

marienbad

nhunter100 wrote: »

The British got alot of stick for refusing to switch to the Euro, if the last few years have taught me anything it's a good idea to control your own currency. As for Brexit only time will tell. I however don't think Britain will suffer as much as the rest of the EU seem to want them too.

What makes you think the EU want them to suffer ?

nhunter100

marienbad wrote:

What makes you think the EU want them to suffer ?

Oh I don't know maybe the comments of some of the leading lights in Europe Juncker/ Schultz spring to mind.

BlinkingLights

marienbad wrote: »

What makes you think the EU want them to suffer ?

I don't the the EU wants any suffering. It's just a case of also not being willing to give them access to the market on a totally unfair basis that would undermine the real members. They aren't going to get unchanged, unfettered access with the kinds of proposals they've been making so far.

The side making all the threats and aggressive comments has been the UK. There's also been a press narrative of trying to immediately portray the UK as the poor little victims of big bad Brussels simply because it's not going to get its way.

It's a negotiation though - expect a few strong words from both sides.

KingBrian2

When i look at Britain i see Thatcher like policies and a Thatcher approach to the EU. For all those in the EU who want to make it more reflective of the public than don't get any ideas out of London. They were big backers of neo-liberalism and US style crony capitalism. Jeremy Corbyn might offer a different path for Britain to take post leaving the Union but i stand by the argument that the € was a success for most EU states. 19 states in the EU that can trade with the same currency.

BlinkingLights

There's also a possibility that the EU without the UK will be less neoliberal and maybe might function better. The UK has long been turning up at meetings stroking a veto on the table.

I think many people underestimate just how much of an influence on EU policy direction the UK was.

marienbad

nhunter100 wrote: »

Oh I don't know maybe the comments of some of the leading lights in Europe Juncker/ Schultz spring to mind.

You can't be serious ? After decades of British press and politicians saying the most appalling things about the EU - you equate defending the principles on which it stands as wanting to make the UK suffer .

As someone already said the UK is the country currently with the most opt outs and it wants to change that to the country with the most opt ins .

Pointing out you can't have your cake and eat it is not wanting to make anyone suffer . It is what it is and is what the UK voted for .

There are no winners in this fiasco

nhunter100

marienbad wrote:

You can't be serious ? After decades of British press and politicians saying the most appalling things about the EU - you equate defending the principles on which it stands as wanting to make the UK suffer .

Actually I'm quite serious, I have heard the vindictive ness in Juncker after the vote nothing got to do with defending the principles on which the EEC was founded upon. Sounded more like a schoolyard bully tbh.

KindOfIrish

nhunter100 wrote: »

Actually I'm quite serious, I have heard the vindictive ness in Juncker after the vote nothing got to do with defending the principles on which the EEC was founded upon. Sounded more like a schoolyard bully tbh.

Do you speak and understand foreign languages or you heard "the vindictiveness" in British press interpretation?

marienbad

nhunter100 wrote: »

Actually I'm quite serious, I have heard the vindictive ness in Juncker after the vote nothing got to do with defending the principles on which the EEC was founded upon. Sounded more like a schoolyard bully tbh.

There is a lot more to the EU than Junker and what he said was mild compared to the neverending rants of Farage , the lies of Johnson and the deceitfulness of Gove .

A black day all round for Europe that referendum day , I think history will show that .

bmm

EU should revert to being EEC . The rest is a mess !

solodeogloria

nhunter100 wrote: »

Actually I'm quite serious, I have heard the vindictive ness in Juncker after the vote nothing got to do with defending the principles on which the EEC was founded upon. Sounded more like a schoolyard bully tbh.

Good evening!

Indeed! From the EU perspective - it is honestly better for them if Britain leaves. They were at best an uncooperative member. The ever closer vision of the EU was going to fall out of favour in one country sooner rather than later.

The EU desperately needs reform. Less integration rather than more integration. It is going to fall apart otherwise. Truth be told that is something I don't want to see happen. However the EU needs to start responding to concerns in member states and reform to be a leaner more agile union otherwise people like Geert Wilders will get a hearing all over Europe and the EU will disintegrate.

Debt forgiveness for Greece really should be the start. Why should German and French banks get off the hook for dodgy loans?

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Yurt123

Anyone else think that Theresa May is going to land the UK with either no trade deal with the EU or one so bad that the parliament or MP's (I forget which one gets to vote on it) have no choice but to reject it… thus leaving the UK staring 2 prospects, stay in the EU or leave out of spite and face economic ruin? I think she's bluffing and doesn't want to leave at all… I saw Theresa May on Sky News threatening to drop corporation tax if a trade war breaks out with the EU but the problem with that is (A) they're not going to be able to do without all that less tax revenue and (B) I believe that a lot of companies will end up leaving the UK if they leave the EU

BlinkingLights

The British, more so the Tories, have got a problem with "the stiff upper lip".

Once they've started on a course they'll keep going no matter how unpleasant the consequences might be.

Needs must! Keep Calm and Carry On...

nhunter100

I have heard the vindictiveness in Juncker's voice. I have made no mention of the British media either print or otherwise.

Firefox11

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I agree. Even if Le Pen comes to power that doesn't mean the French will exit immediately.
The immediate effects of Brexit, if it happens on schedule, will galvanize the rest to make it work.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas and all that.

Well from what we have seen happen in the UK and the USA lots of Turkeys actually do vote for christmas which kinda worries me!

swampgas

nhunter100 wrote: »

I have heard the vindictiveness in Juncker's voice. I have made no mention of the British media either print or otherwise.

Given the constant stream of xenophobic abuse from the British press for years, Cameron's abuse of the veto, Farages reprehensible tirades as an MEP, among many other things, I find it unsurprising that Juncker might have been somewhat cheesed off. Really, the UK should grow a thicker skin. People in glasshouses and all that.

BlinkingLights

The assumption in England though is everyone else has a press just as nasty as their tabloids.

There usually surprised to find the French don't actually have regular headlines about Les Rosbifs and so on..

Yurt123

What did we have before the EEC? Big tariffs between each European country?

Wanderer78

Yurt123 wrote: »

What did we have before the EEC? Big tariffs between each European country?

theres no point in looking back into the past, the world has moved on from the original eec but we have to realise what the eu has become and we must ask ourselves, is it truly working for us? its has become very dysfunctional and extremely undemocratic. is this what we want?

marienbad

Wanderer78 wrote: »

theres no point in looking back into the past, the world has moved on from the original eec but we have to realise what the eu has become and we must ask ourselves, is it truly working for us? its has become very dysfunctional and extremely undemocratic. is this what we want?

How is it dysfunctional and undemocratic ?

Sam Russell

Yurt123 wrote: »

What did we have before the EEC? Big tariffs between each European country?

WAR - World War II to be precise.

Following that - mass migration with roads filled with pathetic lines of people on foot carrying all they possessed moving towards safety. Also, mass starvation. This was followed by the Berlin Airlift to relieve Berlin from the Russian blockade.

The EEC was set up by the original six members to make sure these horrors never happened in Europe again. Britain refused to join at the time. When they belatedly tried to join, DeGaul said 'Non'.

Go study some European history.

demfad

Yurt123 wrote: »

I know it's been long talked about and I always dismissed it as being nonesene but for those of you willing to give a balance and non sensationalist view upon the situation do ye think this is really it for the EU?

Like it or not Britain has voted to leave, I have my doubts that they actually will

If the far right candidate gets elected in France it looks like she'll want out of the EU and I'm just after reading that the Italians are sick of the single currency and the EU as a whole and apparently a lot of them want out

Is this really it for the EU or is it a storm in a tea cup?

I presume the Western European countries would draw up free trade agreements fairly lively with eachother if the EU were to break up so things might sort themselves out kinda quick at least

If France, the U.K. and Italy all left could we get on fine in a EU without them?

LePen will get 26% of first vote in semi final and final. Russia and Wikileaks are trying to throw dirt at Macron to get their candidate Lepan elected. Russia like to get Europe worried about the EU breakup. Don't humour them

Yurt123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

theres no point in looking back into the past, the world has moved on from the original eec but we have to realise what the eu has become and we must ask ourselves, is it truly working for us? its has become very dysfunctional and extremely undemocratic. is this what we want?

How much faith can be placed in democracy? You'd think that history would have thought us to not elect someone like Trump into power but he still got voted as president of America, the Brexit vote was just an antiestablishment gesture gone wrong… like I said earlier many countries have landed themselves in massive pools of debt due to successive governments essentially buying votes by throwing money at the voters through unsustainable spending

I think the EU should stop giving out so much money to farmer, I don't know any exact figures but I think they give out billions of euros each years to farmers which is mind boggling, the money would be put to far better use being spent on tbings like development of renewable energy sources

Inquitus

If the EU breaks up, does anyone honestly think it will be anything but the ruination of our Island? We are a rock in the Atlantic with no natural resources of note, likely the greatest beneficiaries of EU membership that has ever been. And please don't cite fish or limited natural gas resources. If the EU implodes our standard of living which is one of the highest in the world will be decimated.

Yurt123

Sam Russell wrote: »

WAR - World War II to be precise.

Following that - mass migration with roads filled with pathetic lines of people on foot carrying all they possessed moving towards safety. Also, mass starvation. This was followed by the Berlin Airlift to relieve Berlin from the Russian blockade.

The EEC was set up by the original six members to make sure these horrors never happened in Europe again. Britain refused to join at the time. When they belatedly tried to join, DeGaul said 'Non'.

Go study some European history.

Wasn't it originally called the European steel community and was all about strictly the trading of steel between European countries…? What I just meant was that before the EEC (or whatever it was originally called) came along was there much in the way of barriers to trade between European countries? The European steel community was founded a decade or so after WW2

Wanderer78

marienbad wrote: »

How is it dysfunctional and undemocratic ?

the current center of power in the eu is our highly dysfunctional financial institutions, in which are effectively bullying countries in taking on the debts of failed European banks, mainly french and German banks. this model is failing us badly and has the potential to collapse the eu which could lead to catastrophic economic problems for us all. sadly our political leaders are more or less lost and are not listening to reason. we probably dont have long to try save the union but unfortunately is doesnt look like our governments will change much until the next serious financial crisis, which may not be too far away. only time will tell i guess, but it is disturbing to watch

Yurt123

Inquitus wrote: »

If the EU breaks up, does anyone honestly think it will be anything but the ruination of our Island? We are a rock in the Atlantic with no natural resources of note, likely the greatest beneficiaries of EU membership that has ever been. And please don't cite fish or limited natural gas resources. If the EU implodes our standard of living which is one of the highest in the world will be decimated.

How bad do you think things could get? Our only natural resource (well arguably it's a resource) is farming and it's going straight down the gutter if the EU breaks up, it's totally subsided by the EU

johnp001

marienbad wrote: »

How is it dysfunctional and undemocratic ?

Mary Ellen Synon gave matt cooper a great interview this evening on that very subject.


The Last Word

Sam Russell

Yurt123 wrote: »

Wasn't it originally called the European steel community and was all about strictly the trading of steel between European countries…? What I just meant was that before the EEC (or whatever it was originally called) came along was there much in the way of barriers to trade between European countries? The European steel community was founded a decade or so after WW2

European Coal and Steel Community was founded in 1951, six years after the end of WW II. The treaty of Rome in 1958 founded the EEC, which incorporated the ECSC, along with Euratom. The main goal was to prevent war in Europe, and prevent starvation occurring in Europe ever again. That was the thinking behind the Common Agricultural Policy.

There was chaos in those six years as Governments were started from scratch. All was in disarray, requiring outside help including American funded Marshal Aid. Most European countries were devastated by bombing and destruction of assets, as well as being having no financial reserves. Food was in short supply.

To answer your question re trade before the EEC, I think it was carried out within the Marshal Aid Umbrella.