Is the EU actually about to break up?

Zubeneschamali

screamer wrote: »

just think here, troika, bond holders etc, all dictated from on high by EU......

Just think, rescued us from utter ruin due to our local gombeen politicians corruption and stupidity.

nhunter100

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Just think, rescued us from utter ruin due to our local gombeen politicians corruption and stupidity.

Trichet 'a bomb will go off in Dublin, not Frankfurt' not the words of a rescuer tbh.

Wanderer78

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Just think, rescued us from utter ruin due to our local gombeen politicians corruption and stupidity.

not at all, our financial institutions are ruling the roost, tons of people writing about this now. we may forget about things such as neoliberalism and neoclassical theory, its time for us to move onto truly better things

nhunter100

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Just think, rescued us from utter ruin due to our local gombeen politicians corruption and stupidity.

Also meant to add when the EU managed to make the IMF look benevolent, there is a serious disconnect between our so called friends in Europe and us.

eeguy

Wanderer78 wrote: »

not at all, our financial institutions are ruling the roost, tons of people writing about this now. we may forget about things such as neoliberalism and neoclassical theory, its time for us to move onto truly better things

Such as?

johnnyskeleton

suziki832 wrote: »

It seems it all boils down to the same thing as regards people voting for far right groups: immigration and refugees. I think people are sick of their neighbourhoods becoming full of Muslims and losing their national identity. This is why Brexit and Trump happened.

I dont agree. Opinion polls suggest that national soverignty rather than immigration control were key factors in the vote:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

Moreover, the main area of immigration required by the EU relates to free movement of EU citizens as in French people go to UK and UK people go to Germany etc. While some of those people may well be Muslim, it isnt the majority or even a large minority of them.

Concievably they are concerned with the EU wide agreements on refugees, but the UK was a signatory of the Geneva Convention long before becoming a member of the EU. If they dont want to take in any refugees they will have to leave the Geneva Convention as well as the EU.

johnp001

Being bailed out and having to impose austerity on the poorest in society and pay for debt by selling off national assets is a road to ruin. Even the IMF admits it.

Reuters wrote:

Exclusive: IMF says Greek debt 'highly unsustainable', debt relief 'essential' - draft memorandum
The International Monetary Fund wants Greece's European partners to grant Athens substantial relief on its debt which it sees remaining "highly unsustainable", according to a draft IMF memorandum seen by Reuters.
More...

If the Greek government had complied with the referendum and instead defaulted on its patently unsustainable debt it would have had the possibility of things improving sometime in the future.
Ireland's debt is just as unpayable we just haven't felt the effects yet. The fact that Tanager recently came out and offered 40% discounts to some mortgage holders wasn't an act of philanthropy it was because they don't see any way that they will be repaid due to the personal and sovereign insolvency in the country.

van_beano

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

So you're objecting to the E.U. making a law on removing mobile phone roaming charges when you go on your sun holiday this summer?

Laws such as the mobile phone roaming charges ones you mentioned don't interfere with the running of individual states and are more focused European wide. Why can't things like roaming charges not be dealt with on a trading bloc basis? If roaming charges exist then each individual member state won't issue licenses to the mobile phone providers to operate in their country. No need for laws on it just a bit of common sense by the telecommunication company. With such a huge market at stake the telecom companies are hardly going to play hardball.

The laws I am describing here are the likes of the ban on bog cutting down the country to name one. The environmental impact of bog cutting should be a matter for the Irish Government to tackle and not for the EU.

Also, if it was to be just an unhindered trading and travel bloc would there be any need for the huge financial contributions to the EU like the €280m from the Leprechaun economics from last year? With all the grants obtained by Ireland from the EU over the last 3 decades or so I'm sure, without any links or stats, that Ireland has returned all the money in contributions since.

KyussBeeshop

Predicting the breakup of the EU is a bit like trying to predict the next recession - you can see the clear warning signs of it coming, but you have no idea how resilient 'the system' is to bad events until they actually happen (and you can be surprised just how resilient it is when they do) - and you don't know if it will survive the next bout of turbulence, or if/when the worst will actually happen this time, because it's still possible for the worst to be averted or just delayed, until later - there are lots of ways to just kick the can down the road, without actually dealing with the fundamental problems, and this seems to be the preferred tack.

So, there are a lot of reasons why we can still say the EU is on the trend towards a future breakup, and we can say a lot about events or possible events that may add to the turbulence, which may possibly breakup the EU - but we can't confidently say exactly when it will happen or if it may ultimately be averted.

I think those expecting/suspecting a future breakup (including myself), will be surprised how long it will last and how many good/bad times we'll pass through, before it will happen - and those expecting it to stay together, viewing it as solid, will retain those views even as it grows increasingly unstable, and may only end up being surprised after a Brexit/Trump level event, which signals the likely/imminent breakup of the EU.

Yurt123

You'd wonder about the importance of having an EU parliament to dictate to us how to run our countries

Remember P.I.I.G.S…? Through buying votes with unsustainable policies our governments made a big mess of things, I don't agree with a lot of what the European Union makes us do but if done right I certainly would like them to have a say in how we run things… I remember hearing years ago that some hospital in Greece has something like 30 gardeners and a garden literally the size of a snooker table, the public sector there sounded like one big free for all haha!

pumpkin4life

The E.U right now is like an animal that has been mortally wounded. It's not a question of if its going to break up, but when it's going to break up.

It's finished. Brexit was the big one that set it off. People just don't recognize it yet.

Zubeneschamali

johnp001 wrote: »

Ireland's debt is just as unpayable we just haven't felt the effects yet.

So, when do you think we will start feeling these "effects", and what will they be?

Wanderer78

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, when do you think we will start feeling these "effects", and what will they be?

id argue we re already feeling it and its showing in our housing/homeless issues, public health care system and other public services.

Zubeneschamali

pumpkin4life wrote: »

The E.U right now is like an animal that has been mortally wounded. It's not a question of if its going to break up, but when it's going to break up.

Go on, give us a timeline. "If the EU still exists in 2___ I will admit I was wrong."

I'm in my 50s, and I am quite confident that the EU will outlast me.

nhunter100

Zubeneschamali wrote:

So, when do you think we will start feeling these "effects", and what will they be?

Came out during the week that we don't have the money to build the new children's hospital. I wonder is there a connection? What do you think? Do the unsustainable debt repayments have a role to pay prehaps.

Zubeneschamali

Wanderer78 wrote: »

id argue we re already feeling it and its showing in our housing/homeless issues, public health care system and other public services.

You kind of have to draw a connection somehow to be remotely credible.

Our homeless/housing issue is caused by the 2008 crash killing our construction sector. It takes years to restore it to the needed level, while our booming economy means demand for housing is already up, but not supply.

We spend plenty on health, bad results are because of the system, and the historical mess it has inherited, not because the system is strapped for cash.

Our debt/gdp ratio is high, but dropping fast. It has been higher in the past and never destroyed us.

eeguy

van_beano wrote: »

.

Also, if it was to be just an unhindered trading and travel bloc would there be any need for the huge financial contributions to the EU like the €280m from the Leprechaun economics from last year? With all the grants obtained by Ireland from the EU over the last 3 decades or so I'm sure, without any links or stats, that Ireland has returned all the money in contributions since.

Highly doubtful. The EU also pumps tens of millions in grants and research funding into Ireland alone.
The UK lost £2.2 billion in research funds after Brexit.

Not to mention all the farmers grants, renewables grants Horizon 2020 stuff and dozens of other arts, science, education ect ect ect.
I'll agree that the people against the EU are the ones who don't benefit from it, but they haven't a notion whats at stake if we leave.

johnp001

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, when do you think we will start feeling these "effects", and what will they be?

Good question!
As KyussBeeshop indicates above it is not easy one to answer. While it is hard to predict a precise timescale I expect things to be a lot different by this time next year.
The effects of being heavily indebted at unsustainably low interest rates while inflation rises are reduced purchasing power and the government becoming unable to meet its commitments to pay for services, pensions etc.
The situation is Greece is one example, Venezuela and Brazil are also experiencing economic crises that could resemble what happens here.

Wanderer78

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You kind of have to draw a connection somehow to be remotely credible.

Our homeless/housing issue is caused by the 2008 crash killing our construction sector. It takes years to restore it to the needed level, while our booming economy means demand for housing is already up, but not supply.

We spend plenty on health, bad results are because of the system, and the historical mess it has inherited, not because the system is strapped for cash.

Our debt/gdp ratio is high, but dropping fast. It has been higher in the past and never destroyed us.

=conventional economic theory=neoclassical theory=bust(in my eyes and others!)

we have to give up on all this supply and demand, market equilibrium, debt/gdp radio etc etc. its all nonsense.

....and you be wondering why the eu is failing:rolleyes:

red ears

People need to keep in mind what happened in the EU over the last 5 years or so. Germany and France basically get together and decide how things go. The treatment of Greece Ireland and Portugal during the crisis is a good example of their attitude. Germany in particular seems to think it decides the rules. They decided the Dublin convention doesn't apply anymore and invited in millions of migrants. Then Merkel tried to bully other EU members to take a percentage of those migrants. The backlash from some eastern countries was enough to withstand that bullying but she would have persisted if she could have got her way. This is not what European people signed up for.

Zubeneschamali

johnp001 wrote: »

I expect things to be a lot different by this time next year.

Yesterday the NTMA placed 1.25 billion of bonds at 1% interest. 10 years ago, before the crash, we used to see 4%, and that was OK. During the crash, we saw 10-12%.

So, in a years time, where will it be, as these chickens come home to roost?

I'll say it'll still be less than the 4% it was 10 years ago. What is your prediction? And we can check back in 12 months to see who was wrong.

Zubeneschamali

Wanderer78 wrote: »

we have to give up on all this supply and demand, market equilibrium, debt/gdp radio etc etc. its all nonsense.

If it is all nonsense, then what's the problem with our unpayable debt? Just more nonsense numbers in a computer.

johnp001

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yesterday the NTMA placed 1.25 billion of bonds at 1% interest. 10 years ago, before the crash, we used to see 4%, and that was OK. During the crash, we saw 10-12%.

So, in a years time, where will it be, as these chickens come home to roost?

I'll say it'll still be less than the 4% it was 10 years ago. What is your prediction? And we can check back in 12 months to see who was wrong.

Fair enough, I'll take the other side of that bet and say >4%

And I certainly hope you are right and that the Celtic Tiger standard of living we have in this country is here for the long term

Yurt123

Is homelessness really that big a deal, how many people are homeless?

My argument is why should people build houses, with planning permission and other red tape it costs a lot of money to start a development before one block is laid even… and then even if your development does prove to be successful you've to pay 1/3 of your profits in CGT where as before it was only 20%… also if you build houses and rent them out (presuming your in the high tax bracket) you only get left with a fraction of the rent by the time your income tax, PRSI, USC is all paid

If the government brought in tax breaks for people selling houses or even renting them It would surely ease the homeless crisis, I don't think the homeless crisis has anything to do with the EU, we owe all this money for bailing out our banks and there's no getting away from it

solodeogloria

Good afternoon,

It was too tempting to ignore this thread.

I don't think the EU will fall apart and I don't have any doubts that Britain will leave the EU.

In the medium term it will be costly but the British economy will weather the storm. PwC this week said with the right trading arrangements Britain could be one of the fastest growing economies in the G7 post-Brexit. There's lots of reasons to think that Brexit can be beneficial long term. There is no logical reason to believe that the UK can't benefit from Brexit long term.

The EU on the other hand needs to reform. That probably would look like debt forgiveness for a stagnant Greece that the IMF no longer wants to enforce and removing it from the Eurozone, a common Schengen area EU backed border force or scrap Schengen entirely, less rather than more integration, more rather than less sovereignty over member states affairs. If that means no single currency that's also an option that needs to be considered.

People like Verhofstadt are deluded if they think that the solution to the EU's woes with populism are going to be dealt with by more integration rather than a lot lot less.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

catbear

A lot of new accounts. Interesting.

Wanderer78

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If it is all nonsense, then what's the problem with our unpayable debt? Just more nonsense numbers in a computer.

its very likely some of the debts created during the last few years will never be paid back. our financial and economic systems are backed by fundamentally flawed economic theories and principles. theres effectively too much debt out there now, particularly private debt. our economies are becoming stagnant due to this, its time for something new and fast or all this will go south, very very quickly.

BlinkingLights

Reading it through the UK media you'd think the EU was going to have an all out war any moment in between the regular famines and invasions.

I don't think the French are really going to elect Le Pen. It's a second round run off voting system. She will get into the second round but she will get about 36% max.

4068ac1elhodqr

Having backed both UKE-ConMaj, Brexit & Trump, think the EU will change dramatically over the next 5yrs likely in this sequence:

1). Greece 'asked' to leave, they accept the plan with a golden handshake/wave.
2). Debt-ridden Italy to leave shortly after. Renzi lost the recent gamble with a referendum, nationalist 5☆ to win.
3). Denmark to follow Italy, a country which holds it's own virtues very highly, will no longer tolerate increasing immigration levels.
4). France not leave until beyond 2020, LePen won't win the next election. She will come very close, but lacks the charisma and leadership for such a bold move. A stronger alternative leader will be appointed after her demise, and take them out of the EU at a much later date, at 2nd referendum perhaps around 2021, by this time the desire to leave will have become great.
5). After this time it will become much more practical for any Western/Southern state to leave the EU, whether it's Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Malta. Following earlier examples, the ability for a country to control it's own borders and legislation will be of paramount importance.

Europe will become a German led superstate 2025, mainly amassed of Eastern/Central block countries, as such the German army will rise again to defend this block from various new challenges arising from the East and Middle-East.

johnp001

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its very likely some of the debts created during the last few years will never be paid back. our financial and economic systems are backed by fundamentally flawed economic theories and principles. theres effectively too much debt out there now, particularly private debt. our economies are becoming stagnant due to this, its time for something new and fast or all this will go south, very very quickly.

Yes, and the default on private debts could be a catalyst but the post Glass-Steagal exposure of financial institutions to a massive derivative bubble is what will make the next crash orders of magnitude more severe than the previous one.