Is the EU actually about to break up?

Yurt123

I know it's been long talked about and I always dismissed it as being nonesene but for those of you willing to give a balance and non sensationalist view upon the situation do ye think this is really it for the EU?

Like it or not Britain has voted to leave, I have my doubts that they actually will

If the far right candidate gets elected in France it looks like she'll want out of the EU and I'm just after reading that the Italians are sick of the single currency and the EU as a whole and apparently a lot of them want out

Is this really it for the EU or is it a storm in a tea cup?

I presume the Western European countries would draw up free trade agreements fairly lively with eachother if the EU were to break up so things might sort themselves out kinda quick at least

If France, the U.K. and Italy all left could we get on fine in a EU without them?

ancapailldorcha

I hope not. I believe that it adds a lot more than it takes. Short term, the main threat is the possibility of France leaving. That'll be it IMO. The UK leaving is bad for the EU but the British have always been half-hearted members of the club at best when you consider the rebate, their veto, etc.. One thing which will hopefully help save the project is that people will see that voting against the establishment simply for the sake of it has very real consequences. The other is that the young will hopefully actually turn out and vote instead of letting older, more conservative voters decide their futures for them.

Yurt123

What would happen if the EU broke up? I think the Western European countries would form a similar trading bloc but that's all it would be, a trading bloc.

RobertKK

France and Germany make up the heart of the EU, with Italy like a main artery who will do nothing as long as both the French and Germans remain, in my opinion.

Marine Le Pen is a danger to the EU. No one knows the future.
European plans for further integration are now on the very long finger given there are real existential threats.
2017 is the biggest year ever for the EU in terms of its future.

blanch152

France and Germany are the EU core.

It wouldn't survive either of them leaving.

It could lose the UK or Italy or Spain or the Nordics or Ireland or half the East Europeans (but not all of those) and still survive but it couldn't lose France or Germany and survive.

Kitsunegari

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I hope not. I believe that it adds a lot more than it takes. Short term, the main threat is the possibility of France leaving. That'll be it IMO. The UK leaving is bad for the EU but the British have always been half-hearted members of the club at best when you consider the rebate, their veto, etc.. One thing which will hopefully help save the project is that people will see that voting against the establishment simply for the sake of it has very real consequences. The other is that the young will hopefully actually turn out and vote instead of letting older, more conservative voters decide their futures for them.

People aren't voting against the establishment for the sake of it. There is a genuine growing undercurrent of dissent against the political establishment. Why would you bother voting if you're only getting different shades of grey?

Yurt123

I personally have nothing against refugees coming into the EU but maybe the EU should allow its members to start picking and choosing how many refugees each country wants to let in… we shouldn't let the refugee crisis bring down the EU… I think if France leaves it's all over… what will happen then, we all revert back to our old currencies? Our Irish pound will be weak which will once again make us more competitive at least

ZeroThreat

Kitsunegari wrote: »

People aren't voting against the establishment for the sake of it. There is a genuine growing undercurrent of dissent against the political establishment. Why would you bother voting if you're only getting different shades of grey?

Well, obviously those lucky group of people who benefit from the largesse of maintaining the status quo will do their best to encourage others not the upset the establishment. The political class (and particularly EU bureaucrats) comes to mind, the likes of neo-con pro TTIP shill (and incompetent FG director of elections) Brian Hayes, and as-straight-as-a-dogs-hind-leg Phil Hogan.

Yurt123

I think a lot of people who don't have much to lose in the first place (those with no jobs or poor employment prospects, no mortgages so no need to worry about interest rates going up) have been voting against the establishment just for the sake of it

nhunter100

Yurt123 wrote:

I think a lot of people who don't have much to lose in the first place (those with no jobs or poor employment prospects, no mortgages so no need to worry about interest rates going up) have been voting against the establishment just for the sake of it

This is absolute nonsense. Everyone has a stake in inflation. What do you think would happen with a EU breakup? We would suddenly become super competitive? ( reverting to a weak pound) cheap exports considering our dependence on imports not exactly a rosey picture. How many mortgage holders wiped out?

johnp001

Yurt123 wrote: »

I think a lot of people who don't have much to lose in the first place (those with no jobs or poor employment prospects, no mortgages so no need to worry about interest rates going up) have been voting against the establishment just for the sake of it

An alternative explanation would be that those who don't have much (to lose or otherwise) are voting to change a system that does not favour them (which is perfectly understandable and can hardly be described as "for the sake of it")
Those that are currently more advantaged are inclined to vote for the establishment however corrupt and elitist it may be as long as it maintains the status quo.

swampgas

Yurt123 wrote: »

I think a lot of people who don't have much to lose in the first place (those with no jobs or poor employment prospects, no mortgages so no need to worry about interest rates going up) have been voting against the establishment just for the sake of it

We've had the EU for so long that people don't actually see the benefits. Those who think they have nothing to lose, don't realise that they do in fact have plenty to lose - things can always be much worse. Not that people care, they just want to be heard. It's a shame that they are willing to damage the system that protects them (even if that protection seems limited) in order to send a message to the elites they imagine are oppressing them.

The phrase "Jumping from the frying pan into the fire" comes to mind.

Zubeneschamali

Yurt123 wrote: »

do ye think this is really it for the EU?

Nope.

Brexit will demonstrate why the EU is a good idea.

Wanderer78

If it's not reformed soon, its days could be numbered. The ordinary man is not seeing the true benefits of the union, it's become a bureaucratic mess, whereby the higher tiers of our social and financial structures truly benefit, and the ordinary citizens become laden with debt. It's an unsustainable model and must be reformed or it will collapse causing pain and misery for all. The next serious financial crisis should focus minds on this task, if we make it through it!

nhunter100

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Brexit will demonstrate why the EU is a good idea.

The effects of Brexit will take several years to manifest themselves. The threat to the EU is in the present.

van_beano

I'm sure it's been touched on before but the initial idea of the EU (EEC or whatever it was) was good - free movement of goods and citizens. It's the idea of a United States of Europe been run by the central Government in Brussels or wherever that's turning people against the EU. Each state have their own culture and identity built up over centuries, you can't just mash them altogether and make laws thinking it'll suit everyone. There's no reason why the EU couldn't go back to what it was set up to be - a trading bloc and unhindered travel area. There's no need for an EU parliament of a few hundred people setting out laws, rules and basically dictating what individual nation states are and are not allowed to do. Makes no sense to me but that's my little contribution.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nope.

Brexit will demonstrate why the EU is a good idea.

I agree. Even if Le Pen comes to power that doesn't mean the French will exit immediately.
The immediate effects of Brexit, if it happens on schedule, will galvanize the rest to make it work.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas and all that.

suziki832

A lot of the younger generation in the UK are completely against Brexit and don't want to leave, it seems it was the older generation voted out. It'll be an interesting few years

Hopefully the French are not as thick...but as people have stated time for the EU to stop dictating laws to different nations about refugees etc.

KindOfIrish

Yurt123 wrote: »

I know it's been long talked about and I always dismissed it as being nonesene but for those of you willing to give a balance and non sensationalist view upon the situation do ye think this is really it for the EU?

Have you read too much British press lately?

Inquitus

Le Pen can't win, the real problems we face this year are the Netherlands with Wilders and Five Star in Italy, if we can get past those unscathed then the EU is safe, the AFD in Germany is also a risk if they manage to prevent Merkel from being re-elected.

FrancieBrady

Inquitus wrote: »

Le Pen can't win, the real problems we face this year are the Netherlands with Wilders and Five Star in Italy, if we can get past those unscathed then the EU is safe, the AFD in Germany is also a risk if they manage to prevent Merkel from being re-elected.

Wilders might do well but is he likely to find anyone willing to govern with him.
Same in Italy.

Any decision on leaving the Union is years away in these countries in my opinion. An actual Brexit will be pivotal in underscoring how beneficial and important the EU is. And there will be an appetite to reform it.
It is possible to be upbeat about the future of the EU as much as it is to be negative.

nhunter100

suziki832 wrote:

A lot of the younger generation in the UK are completely against Brexit and don't want to leave, it seems it was the older generation voted out. It'll be an interesting few years

The younger generation choose to sit on their collective asses the day of the vote. Less than 25% of the 18 to 30 group voted. Pointless whingeing about the result when they refused to exercise their franchise.

nhunter100

Inquitus wrote:

Le Pen can't win, the real problems we face this year are the Netherlands with Wilders and Five Star in Italy, if we can get past those unscathed then the EU is safe, the AFD in Germany is also a risk if they manage to prevent Merkel from being re-elected.

Mmmm... I remember hearing Trump won't win, Brexit won't happen. Yeah definitely, Le Pen can't win.

Skylinehead

nhunter100 wrote: »

Mmmm... I remember hearing Trump won't win, Brexit won't happen. Yeah definitely, Le Pen can't win.

It's far more unlikely given the French electoral system (and sheer will to vote)

suziki832

It seems it all boils down to the same thing as regards people voting for far right groups: immigration and refugees. I think people are sick of their neighbourhoods becoming full of Muslims and losing their national identity. This is why Brexit and Trump happened.

nhunter100

Skylinehead wrote:

It's far more unlikely given the French electoral system (and sheer will to vote)

Unlikely prehaps but not outside the realms of possibility. The favourite has had something of a rough time recently.

Zubeneschamali

nhunter100 wrote: »

The effects of Brexit will take several years to manifest themselves. The threat to the EU is in the present.

And the past. It has been on the brink of failure for years now according to its critics.

Any country contemplating leaving will surely watch Brexit to see how that goes before jumping, and it won't be pretty.

Skylinehead

nhunter100 wrote: »

Unlikely prehaps but not outside the realms of possibility. The favourite has had something of a rough time recently.

Aye but if he goes down, the next favourite (Macron I think right now) will just slot in, and le Pen will lose to him in the second round. French turnout is so high you need half the population not to hate you, and le Pen certainly doesn't have that.

jimmycrackcorm

van_beano wrote:

There's no need for an EU parliament of a few hundred people setting out laws, rules and basically dictating what individual nation states are and are not allowed to do. Makes no sense to me but that's my little contribution.

So you're objecting to the E.U. making a law on removing mobile phone roaming charges when you go on your sun holiday this summer?

MrBobbyZ

suziki832 wrote: »

It seems it all boils down to the same thing as regards people voting for far right groups: immigration and refugees. I think people are sick of their neighbourhoods becoming full of Muslims and losing their national identity. This is why Brexit and Trump happened.

You may be correct there. However, since the muslim population in the uk stands at approximately 5% its difficult to believe that every Brit who voted leave is experiencing "their neighborhoods becoming full of Muslims". Blaming minorities for society's problems of the day is as old as the hills and very often just plain incorrect.

screamer

Unless the juggernaut that is the EU starts to look at, review and perhaps even shock horror, change tact on some of the areas/ issues of deep concern to citizens of the countries of the EU then yes, this is a very real possibility. Everything evolves, the EU seems to be stuck in an old fashioned "do what we say" sort of vibe and that is unappealing, just think here, troika, bond holders etc, all dictated from on high by EU......