Is the EU actually about to break up?

Yurt123

I know it's been long talked about and I always dismissed it as being nonesene but for those of you willing to give a balance and non sensationalist view upon the situation do ye think this is really it for the EU?

Like it or not Britain has voted to leave, I have my doubts that they actually will

If the far right candidate gets elected in France it looks like she'll want out of the EU and I'm just after reading that the Italians are sick of the single currency and the EU as a whole and apparently a lot of them want out

Is this really it for the EU or is it a storm in a tea cup?

I presume the Western European countries would draw up free trade agreements fairly lively with eachother if the EU were to break up so things might sort themselves out kinda quick at least

If France, the U.K. and Italy all left could we get on fine in a EU without them?

ancapailldorcha

I hope not. I believe that it adds a lot more than it takes. Short term, the main threat is the possibility of France leaving. That'll be it IMO. The UK leaving is bad for the EU but the British have always been half-hearted members of the club at best when you consider the rebate, their veto, etc.. One thing which will hopefully help save the project is that people will see that voting against the establishment simply for the sake of it has very real consequences. The other is that the young will hopefully actually turn out and vote instead of letting older, more conservative voters decide their futures for them.

Yurt123

What would happen if the EU broke up? I think the Western European countries would form a similar trading bloc but that's all it would be, a trading bloc.

RobertKK

France and Germany make up the heart of the EU, with Italy like a main artery who will do nothing as long as both the French and Germans remain, in my opinion.

Marine Le Pen is a danger to the EU. No one knows the future.
European plans for further integration are now on the very long finger given there are real existential threats.
2017 is the biggest year ever for the EU in terms of its future.

blanch152

France and Germany are the EU core.

It wouldn't survive either of them leaving.

It could lose the UK or Italy or Spain or the Nordics or Ireland or half the East Europeans (but not all of those) and still survive but it couldn't lose France or Germany and survive.

Kitsunegari

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I hope not. I believe that it adds a lot more than it takes. Short term, the main threat is the possibility of France leaving. That'll be it IMO. The UK leaving is bad for the EU but the British have always been half-hearted members of the club at best when you consider the rebate, their veto, etc.. One thing which will hopefully help save the project is that people will see that voting against the establishment simply for the sake of it has very real consequences. The other is that the young will hopefully actually turn out and vote instead of letting older, more conservative voters decide their futures for them.

People aren't voting against the establishment for the sake of it. There is a genuine growing undercurrent of dissent against the political establishment. Why would you bother voting if you're only getting different shades of grey?

Yurt123

I personally have nothing against refugees coming into the EU but maybe the EU should allow its members to start picking and choosing how many refugees each country wants to let in… we shouldn't let the refugee crisis bring down the EU… I think if France leaves it's all over… what will happen then, we all revert back to our old currencies? Our Irish pound will be weak which will once again make us more competitive at least

ZeroThreat

Kitsunegari wrote: »

People aren't voting against the establishment for the sake of it. There is a genuine growing undercurrent of dissent against the political establishment. Why would you bother voting if you're only getting different shades of grey?

Well, obviously those lucky group of people who benefit from the largesse of maintaining the status quo will do their best to encourage others not the upset the establishment. The political class (and particularly EU bureaucrats) comes to mind, the likes of neo-con pro TTIP shill (and incompetent FG director of elections) Brian Hayes, and as-straight-as-a-dogs-hind-leg Phil Hogan.

Yurt123

I think a lot of people who don't have much to lose in the first place (those with no jobs or poor employment prospects, no mortgages so no need to worry about interest rates going up) have been voting against the establishment just for the sake of it

nhunter100

Yurt123 wrote:

I think a lot of people who don't have much to lose in the first place (those with no jobs or poor employment prospects, no mortgages so no need to worry about interest rates going up) have been voting against the establishment just for the sake of it

This is absolute nonsense. Everyone has a stake in inflation. What do you think would happen with a EU breakup? We would suddenly become super competitive? ( reverting to a weak pound) cheap exports considering our dependence on imports not exactly a rosey picture. How many mortgage holders wiped out?

johnp001

Yurt123 wrote: »

I think a lot of people who don't have much to lose in the first place (those with no jobs or poor employment prospects, no mortgages so no need to worry about interest rates going up) have been voting against the establishment just for the sake of it

An alternative explanation would be that those who don't have much (to lose or otherwise) are voting to change a system that does not favour them (which is perfectly understandable and can hardly be described as "for the sake of it")
Those that are currently more advantaged are inclined to vote for the establishment however corrupt and elitist it may be as long as it maintains the status quo.

swampgas

Yurt123 wrote: »

I think a lot of people who don't have much to lose in the first place (those with no jobs or poor employment prospects, no mortgages so no need to worry about interest rates going up) have been voting against the establishment just for the sake of it

We've had the EU for so long that people don't actually see the benefits. Those who think they have nothing to lose, don't realise that they do in fact have plenty to lose - things can always be much worse. Not that people care, they just want to be heard. It's a shame that they are willing to damage the system that protects them (even if that protection seems limited) in order to send a message to the elites they imagine are oppressing them.

The phrase "Jumping from the frying pan into the fire" comes to mind.

Zubeneschamali

Yurt123 wrote: »

do ye think this is really it for the EU?

Nope.

Brexit will demonstrate why the EU is a good idea.

Wanderer78

If it's not reformed soon, its days could be numbered. The ordinary man is not seeing the true benefits of the union, it's become a bureaucratic mess, whereby the higher tiers of our social and financial structures truly benefit, and the ordinary citizens become laden with debt. It's an unsustainable model and must be reformed or it will collapse causing pain and misery for all. The next serious financial crisis should focus minds on this task, if we make it through it!

nhunter100

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Brexit will demonstrate why the EU is a good idea.

The effects of Brexit will take several years to manifest themselves. The threat to the EU is in the present.

van_beano

I'm sure it's been touched on before but the initial idea of the EU (EEC or whatever it was) was good - free movement of goods and citizens. It's the idea of a United States of Europe been run by the central Government in Brussels or wherever that's turning people against the EU. Each state have their own culture and identity built up over centuries, you can't just mash them altogether and make laws thinking it'll suit everyone. There's no reason why the EU couldn't go back to what it was set up to be - a trading bloc and unhindered travel area. There's no need for an EU parliament of a few hundred people setting out laws, rules and basically dictating what individual nation states are and are not allowed to do. Makes no sense to me but that's my little contribution.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nope.

Brexit will demonstrate why the EU is a good idea.

I agree. Even if Le Pen comes to power that doesn't mean the French will exit immediately.
The immediate effects of Brexit, if it happens on schedule, will galvanize the rest to make it work.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas and all that.

suziki832

A lot of the younger generation in the UK are completely against Brexit and don't want to leave, it seems it was the older generation voted out. It'll be an interesting few years

Hopefully the French are not as thick...but as people have stated time for the EU to stop dictating laws to different nations about refugees etc.

KindOfIrish

Yurt123 wrote: »

I know it's been long talked about and I always dismissed it as being nonesene but for those of you willing to give a balance and non sensationalist view upon the situation do ye think this is really it for the EU?

Have you read too much British press lately?

Inquitus

Le Pen can't win, the real problems we face this year are the Netherlands with Wilders and Five Star in Italy, if we can get past those unscathed then the EU is safe, the AFD in Germany is also a risk if they manage to prevent Merkel from being re-elected.

FrancieBrady

Inquitus wrote: »

Le Pen can't win, the real problems we face this year are the Netherlands with Wilders and Five Star in Italy, if we can get past those unscathed then the EU is safe, the AFD in Germany is also a risk if they manage to prevent Merkel from being re-elected.

Wilders might do well but is he likely to find anyone willing to govern with him.
Same in Italy.

Any decision on leaving the Union is years away in these countries in my opinion. An actual Brexit will be pivotal in underscoring how beneficial and important the EU is. And there will be an appetite to reform it.
It is possible to be upbeat about the future of the EU as much as it is to be negative.

nhunter100

suziki832 wrote:

A lot of the younger generation in the UK are completely against Brexit and don't want to leave, it seems it was the older generation voted out. It'll be an interesting few years

The younger generation choose to sit on their collective asses the day of the vote. Less than 25% of the 18 to 30 group voted. Pointless whingeing about the result when they refused to exercise their franchise.

nhunter100

Inquitus wrote:

Le Pen can't win, the real problems we face this year are the Netherlands with Wilders and Five Star in Italy, if we can get past those unscathed then the EU is safe, the AFD in Germany is also a risk if they manage to prevent Merkel from being re-elected.

Mmmm... I remember hearing Trump won't win, Brexit won't happen. Yeah definitely, Le Pen can't win.

Skylinehead

nhunter100 wrote: »

Mmmm... I remember hearing Trump won't win, Brexit won't happen. Yeah definitely, Le Pen can't win.

It's far more unlikely given the French electoral system (and sheer will to vote)

suziki832

It seems it all boils down to the same thing as regards people voting for far right groups: immigration and refugees. I think people are sick of their neighbourhoods becoming full of Muslims and losing their national identity. This is why Brexit and Trump happened.

nhunter100

Skylinehead wrote:

It's far more unlikely given the French electoral system (and sheer will to vote)

Unlikely prehaps but not outside the realms of possibility. The favourite has had something of a rough time recently.

Zubeneschamali

nhunter100 wrote: »

The effects of Brexit will take several years to manifest themselves. The threat to the EU is in the present.

And the past. It has been on the brink of failure for years now according to its critics.

Any country contemplating leaving will surely watch Brexit to see how that goes before jumping, and it won't be pretty.

Skylinehead

nhunter100 wrote: »

Unlikely prehaps but not outside the realms of possibility. The favourite has had something of a rough time recently.

Aye but if he goes down, the next favourite (Macron I think right now) will just slot in, and le Pen will lose to him in the second round. French turnout is so high you need half the population not to hate you, and le Pen certainly doesn't have that.

jimmycrackcorm

van_beano wrote:

There's no need for an EU parliament of a few hundred people setting out laws, rules and basically dictating what individual nation states are and are not allowed to do. Makes no sense to me but that's my little contribution.

So you're objecting to the E.U. making a law on removing mobile phone roaming charges when you go on your sun holiday this summer?

MrBobbyZ

suziki832 wrote: »

It seems it all boils down to the same thing as regards people voting for far right groups: immigration and refugees. I think people are sick of their neighbourhoods becoming full of Muslims and losing their national identity. This is why Brexit and Trump happened.

You may be correct there. However, since the muslim population in the uk stands at approximately 5% its difficult to believe that every Brit who voted leave is experiencing "their neighborhoods becoming full of Muslims". Blaming minorities for society's problems of the day is as old as the hills and very often just plain incorrect.

screamer

Unless the juggernaut that is the EU starts to look at, review and perhaps even shock horror, change tact on some of the areas/ issues of deep concern to citizens of the countries of the EU then yes, this is a very real possibility. Everything evolves, the EU seems to be stuck in an old fashioned "do what we say" sort of vibe and that is unappealing, just think here, troika, bond holders etc, all dictated from on high by EU......

Zubeneschamali

screamer wrote: »

just think here, troika, bond holders etc, all dictated from on high by EU......

Just think, rescued us from utter ruin due to our local gombeen politicians corruption and stupidity.

nhunter100

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Just think, rescued us from utter ruin due to our local gombeen politicians corruption and stupidity.

Trichet 'a bomb will go off in Dublin, not Frankfurt' not the words of a rescuer tbh.

Wanderer78

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Just think, rescued us from utter ruin due to our local gombeen politicians corruption and stupidity.

not at all, our financial institutions are ruling the roost, tons of people writing about this now. we may forget about things such as neoliberalism and neoclassical theory, its time for us to move onto truly better things

nhunter100

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Just think, rescued us from utter ruin due to our local gombeen politicians corruption and stupidity.

Also meant to add when the EU managed to make the IMF look benevolent, there is a serious disconnect between our so called friends in Europe and us.

eeguy

Wanderer78 wrote: »

not at all, our financial institutions are ruling the roost, tons of people writing about this now. we may forget about things such as neoliberalism and neoclassical theory, its time for us to move onto truly better things

Such as?

johnnyskeleton

suziki832 wrote: »

It seems it all boils down to the same thing as regards people voting for far right groups: immigration and refugees. I think people are sick of their neighbourhoods becoming full of Muslims and losing their national identity. This is why Brexit and Trump happened.

I dont agree. Opinion polls suggest that national soverignty rather than immigration control were key factors in the vote:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

Moreover, the main area of immigration required by the EU relates to free movement of EU citizens as in French people go to UK and UK people go to Germany etc. While some of those people may well be Muslim, it isnt the majority or even a large minority of them.

Concievably they are concerned with the EU wide agreements on refugees, but the UK was a signatory of the Geneva Convention long before becoming a member of the EU. If they dont want to take in any refugees they will have to leave the Geneva Convention as well as the EU.

johnp001

Being bailed out and having to impose austerity on the poorest in society and pay for debt by selling off national assets is a road to ruin. Even the IMF admits it.

Reuters wrote:

Exclusive: IMF says Greek debt 'highly unsustainable', debt relief 'essential' - draft memorandum
The International Monetary Fund wants Greece's European partners to grant Athens substantial relief on its debt which it sees remaining "highly unsustainable", according to a draft IMF memorandum seen by Reuters.
More...

If the Greek government had complied with the referendum and instead defaulted on its patently unsustainable debt it would have had the possibility of things improving sometime in the future.
Ireland's debt is just as unpayable we just haven't felt the effects yet. The fact that Tanager recently came out and offered 40% discounts to some mortgage holders wasn't an act of philanthropy it was because they don't see any way that they will be repaid due to the personal and sovereign insolvency in the country.

van_beano

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

So you're objecting to the E.U. making a law on removing mobile phone roaming charges when you go on your sun holiday this summer?

Laws such as the mobile phone roaming charges ones you mentioned don't interfere with the running of individual states and are more focused European wide. Why can't things like roaming charges not be dealt with on a trading bloc basis? If roaming charges exist then each individual member state won't issue licenses to the mobile phone providers to operate in their country. No need for laws on it just a bit of common sense by the telecommunication company. With such a huge market at stake the telecom companies are hardly going to play hardball.

The laws I am describing here are the likes of the ban on bog cutting down the country to name one. The environmental impact of bog cutting should be a matter for the Irish Government to tackle and not for the EU.

Also, if it was to be just an unhindered trading and travel bloc would there be any need for the huge financial contributions to the EU like the €280m from the Leprechaun economics from last year? With all the grants obtained by Ireland from the EU over the last 3 decades or so I'm sure, without any links or stats, that Ireland has returned all the money in contributions since.

KyussBeeshop

Predicting the breakup of the EU is a bit like trying to predict the next recession - you can see the clear warning signs of it coming, but you have no idea how resilient 'the system' is to bad events until they actually happen (and you can be surprised just how resilient it is when they do) - and you don't know if it will survive the next bout of turbulence, or if/when the worst will actually happen this time, because it's still possible for the worst to be averted or just delayed, until later - there are lots of ways to just kick the can down the road, without actually dealing with the fundamental problems, and this seems to be the preferred tack.

So, there are a lot of reasons why we can still say the EU is on the trend towards a future breakup, and we can say a lot about events or possible events that may add to the turbulence, which may possibly breakup the EU - but we can't confidently say exactly when it will happen or if it may ultimately be averted.

I think those expecting/suspecting a future breakup (including myself), will be surprised how long it will last and how many good/bad times we'll pass through, before it will happen - and those expecting it to stay together, viewing it as solid, will retain those views even as it grows increasingly unstable, and may only end up being surprised after a Brexit/Trump level event, which signals the likely/imminent breakup of the EU.

Yurt123

You'd wonder about the importance of having an EU parliament to dictate to us how to run our countries

Remember P.I.I.G.S…? Through buying votes with unsustainable policies our governments made a big mess of things, I don't agree with a lot of what the European Union makes us do but if done right I certainly would like them to have a say in how we run things… I remember hearing years ago that some hospital in Greece has something like 30 gardeners and a garden literally the size of a snooker table, the public sector there sounded like one big free for all haha!

pumpkin4life

The E.U right now is like an animal that has been mortally wounded. It's not a question of if its going to break up, but when it's going to break up.

It's finished. Brexit was the big one that set it off. People just don't recognize it yet.

Zubeneschamali

johnp001 wrote: »

Ireland's debt is just as unpayable we just haven't felt the effects yet.

So, when do you think we will start feeling these "effects", and what will they be?

Wanderer78

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, when do you think we will start feeling these "effects", and what will they be?

id argue we re already feeling it and its showing in our housing/homeless issues, public health care system and other public services.

Zubeneschamali

pumpkin4life wrote: »

The E.U right now is like an animal that has been mortally wounded. It's not a question of if its going to break up, but when it's going to break up.

Go on, give us a timeline. "If the EU still exists in 2___ I will admit I was wrong."

I'm in my 50s, and I am quite confident that the EU will outlast me.

nhunter100

Zubeneschamali wrote:

So, when do you think we will start feeling these "effects", and what will they be?

Came out during the week that we don't have the money to build the new children's hospital. I wonder is there a connection? What do you think? Do the unsustainable debt repayments have a role to pay prehaps.

Zubeneschamali

Wanderer78 wrote: »

id argue we re already feeling it and its showing in our housing/homeless issues, public health care system and other public services.

You kind of have to draw a connection somehow to be remotely credible.

Our homeless/housing issue is caused by the 2008 crash killing our construction sector. It takes years to restore it to the needed level, while our booming economy means demand for housing is already up, but not supply.

We spend plenty on health, bad results are because of the system, and the historical mess it has inherited, not because the system is strapped for cash.

Our debt/gdp ratio is high, but dropping fast. It has been higher in the past and never destroyed us.

eeguy

van_beano wrote: »

.

Also, if it was to be just an unhindered trading and travel bloc would there be any need for the huge financial contributions to the EU like the €280m from the Leprechaun economics from last year? With all the grants obtained by Ireland from the EU over the last 3 decades or so I'm sure, without any links or stats, that Ireland has returned all the money in contributions since.

Highly doubtful. The EU also pumps tens of millions in grants and research funding into Ireland alone.
The UK lost £2.2 billion in research funds after Brexit.

Not to mention all the farmers grants, renewables grants Horizon 2020 stuff and dozens of other arts, science, education ect ect ect.
I'll agree that the people against the EU are the ones who don't benefit from it, but they haven't a notion whats at stake if we leave.

johnp001

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, when do you think we will start feeling these "effects", and what will they be?

Good question!
As KyussBeeshop indicates above it is not easy one to answer. While it is hard to predict a precise timescale I expect things to be a lot different by this time next year.
The effects of being heavily indebted at unsustainably low interest rates while inflation rises are reduced purchasing power and the government becoming unable to meet its commitments to pay for services, pensions etc.
The situation is Greece is one example, Venezuela and Brazil are also experiencing economic crises that could resemble what happens here.

Wanderer78

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You kind of have to draw a connection somehow to be remotely credible.

Our homeless/housing issue is caused by the 2008 crash killing our construction sector. It takes years to restore it to the needed level, while our booming economy means demand for housing is already up, but not supply.

We spend plenty on health, bad results are because of the system, and the historical mess it has inherited, not because the system is strapped for cash.

Our debt/gdp ratio is high, but dropping fast. It has been higher in the past and never destroyed us.

=conventional economic theory=neoclassical theory=bust(in my eyes and others!)

we have to give up on all this supply and demand, market equilibrium, debt/gdp radio etc etc. its all nonsense.

....and you be wondering why the eu is failing:rolleyes:

red ears

People need to keep in mind what happened in the EU over the last 5 years or so. Germany and France basically get together and decide how things go. The treatment of Greece Ireland and Portugal during the crisis is a good example of their attitude. Germany in particular seems to think it decides the rules. They decided the Dublin convention doesn't apply anymore and invited in millions of migrants. Then Merkel tried to bully other EU members to take a percentage of those migrants. The backlash from some eastern countries was enough to withstand that bullying but she would have persisted if she could have got her way. This is not what European people signed up for.