Severe Frost countrywide + Occasional Snow Showers in the East from Thursday 9th Feb

M.T. Cranium

I would not be too pessimistic, the conditions on Friday and Saturday should be favourable for some Irish Sea streamer development and snow would definitely be favoured in these for places above 150m asl, mixed precip lower down but not excluding snow, the faster it falls in convective cells, the more feasible it is to get snow to the surface. Some thunder would be probable in any streamers given the thermal profile likely to develop over 8-10 C water. Uppers are better than marginal for both 850 mb temp and thickness. I would expect some local snowfalls of 5-15 cms on hills especially in Wicklow. We have one or two posters who may be in that zone, reports will be interesting. About 20 cms could fall on higher ground in the southeast, and 10 cms on higher hills south central. Around Dublin it will very likely be a highly variable outcome that ranges from near zero trace amounts in some lower central parts to 5-10 cms in some higher southern areas. There may also be a separate area of good snow north of Drogheda and into east Ulster generally. The Isle of Man shadow may show up, expected orientation of any streamer bands will be roughly ENE to WSW. But the orientation will shift from time to time.

If you are not in a zone normally hit by Irish Sea streamers (or Waterford for easterly streamers locally) then your best bet would seem to be Sunday, or for the northwest into Monday, as the cold air moves further west in association with a weak disturbance embedded in the cold air mass. At this point, central and inland northwest locations could see 1-3 cm snow showers especially on hills.

About half the country will probably not see any snow from this outbreak but will have sharp to severe frosts.

heffoo

225mtrs asl in the Wicklow hills so I'm staying optimistic!

kittyn

Here is hoping I get to see some white gold over the weekend ....... Its looking good so far

nacho libre

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Cross model agreement now for a brief cold spell (virtually dry) followed promptly like a kick in the teeth by an unseasonably mild plume up from the Mediterranean. There have been winters where cold model synoptics are few and far between but they've been ten a penny this year, practically every few weeks we seemed to have been within sight of a cold outbreak that was watered down long before it ever got going. Plenty of good background signals, high pressure lurking about and cold pooling but nothing ever materialising for this part of the world. It seems we just aren't capable of getting a decent cold snowy spell this winter.

.

I genuinely would like to hear M.T. Craniums thoughts on the matter. I read that one crucial teleconnection signal is against us thus far year, that had it been in our favour blocking would have likely developed over Greenland. We needed a stratospheric warming event to overcome it, so with that in mind, maybe, just maybe, we will get another shot in late February. I do share the frustration of others when you think about what might have been this year, Spain and Greece stealing all our snow:mad:

Just saw his post above

D9Male

Do you live high up, kittyn?

Maybe I am missing something, but can anyone show me a model with more than a flurry of snow away from high ground?

Doctor Shivering

I think we've unleashed MT's inner ramp

Kittyn is near Rathfarnham iirc which is in a triangle that goes from Goatstown through Dundrum Ballinteer parts of Tallagth that are plenty high enough for white stuff if the precipitation hits there which it should

Wicklow does seem in prime position alright down to about north Wexford for the core of this
Rathdrum for instance is a big enough town that I'm convinced will see lots of snow if nothing too much changes
Needless to say higher parts like Roundwood even more so
Even Greystones by the sea if mixed will see some snow I think

kittyn

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

I think we've unleashed MT's inner ramp

Kittyn is near Rathfarnham iirc which is in a triangle that goes from Goatstown through Dundrum Ballinteer parts of Tallagth that are plenty high enough for white stuff if the precipitation hits there which it should

Wicklow does seem in prime position alright down to about north Wexford for the core of this
Rathdrum for instance is a big enough town that I'm convinced will see lots of snow if nothing too much changes
Needless to say higher parts like Roundwood even more so
Even Greystones by the sea if mixed will see some snow I think

Am I too well known in here forever chasing the white gold

ninebeanrows

Still looking very interesting for a 72hr cold blast.

Interesting feature has cropped up on some ensembles and on UK Op run. Possible shortwave dropping south across Ireland Saturday. The precio involved would likely fall as snow on its eastern flanks. The position of these very much uncertain but could bring a pleasant surprise to places further west. One to watch.

Otherwise looks like a 36hr window in eastern fringes for some light snow streamers to Sea Level approx Friday 06hrs to Saturday 12hrs. Ppn turning to more of a wintry mix by Sunday at low levels. Hail,thunder, sleet etc.

Get above 150/200m im Wicklow it should negate any modification.

Turning less cold by Monday.

Calibos

nacho libre wrote: »

I genuinely would like to hear M.T. Craniums thoughts on the matter. I read that one crucial teleconnection signal is against us thus far year, that had it been in our favour blocking would have likely developed over Greenland. We needed a stratospheric warming event to overcome it, so with that in mind, maybe, just maybe, we will get another shot in late February. I do share the frustration of others when you think about what might have been this year, Spain and Greece stealing all our snow:mad:

Just saw his post above

Au Contraire. If anything, 2010 was us stealing Spain and Greece and North Africa's snow. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think statistically you're probably more likely to see snow on beaches in Greece and the Costa Del Sol than on the beach in Costa Del Bray I'd be surprised if the statistics weren't something like 6 out of every 10 Winters Snowy in continental Europe, 4 out of every 10 snowy in England, 2 out of every 10 snowy on the beaches of Greece and Spain and 1 out of 10 in Ireland.

ffarrell7

Calibos wrote: »

Au Contraire. If anything, 2010 was us stealing Spain and Greece and North Africa's snow. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think statistically you're probably more likely to see snow on beaches in Greece and the Costa Del Sol than on the beach in Costa Del Bray I'd be surprised if the statistics weren't something like 6 out of every 10 Winters Snowy in continental Europe, 4 out of every 10 snowy in England, 2 out of every 10 snowy on the beaches of Greece and Spain and 1 out of 10 in Ireland.

I disagree. South east England has a slightly better chance of snow than Ireland when the wind is east or south east in direction. Idem for Scotland but the rest of England especialt the south and south west is the same. The continent is a different matter. Winters are generally a lot colder and Summers are significantly better....no comparison there.

Graces7

Had to get up for painkillers ( abed VERY early) and glancing through the window thought it looked white out there.

Bright moonlight and bitter cold, and looks as it the showers I heard earlier have sifted snow right at the back here. Just a thin cloaking.

Needless to say that is my shopping stymied..The track down the mountain is bad enough in mild weather but ice? One skid and a sheer unprotected drop over the edge.

Thought would get it in before the ice started.

Interesting this my first winter here.

West Co Galway.

nagdefy

I should be in a spot that might get some snow too

lucernarian

Quite a few places will see snow falling in some form or other this coming weekend, but looking like higher ground or being >20km inland for the white stuff to stick.

I for one have enjoyed the forecasting this year compared to the bad old days of 2005 and 2006 where easterlies and artic blasts were forecast every other week, and ultimately with only one day's lying snow at home to show for it

It's one thing to have dull and dreary weather for weeks, it's another to see snow forecast and getting 2 degrees and rain in your face. Or cold and dry skys when thundersnow was expected.

Meteorite58

Winds picking up on Sat evening into Sun and increasing further on Mon from an E'ly direction giving very cold windchill readings.

gimpotronitus

How is the Friday snow event panning out? MT's forecast doesnt look good for Friday.

Oneiric 3

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

I think we've unleashed MT's inner ramp

Kittyn is near Rathfarnham iirc which is in a triangle that goes from Goatstown through Dundrum Ballinteer parts of Tallagth that are plenty high enough for white stuff if the precipitation hits there which it should

Wicklow does seem in prime position alright down to about north Wexford for the core of this
Rathdrum for instance is a big enough town that I'm convinced will see lots of snow if nothing too much changes
Needless to say higher parts like Roundwood even more so
Even Greystones by the sea if mixed will see some snow I think

Nice to see you back Arklow..

Doctor Shivering

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Nice to see you back Arklow..

You're welcome Deep Easterly

Rebelbrowser

Met.ie's outlook...

"General: It will be cold right up to and over the weekend, with southeast to easterly winds set to predominate. Mostly dry, but most nights will be very frosty.
Thursday night: Cold and breezy, with a mix of clear spells and cloudy periods. Mostly dry, but a few light showers or wintry flurries are possible in eastern coastal areas. Lowest temperatures plus 1 to -3 C. with a hard frost and some icy patches, despite the stiff easterly wind.

Friday: Cold, breezy and mostly dry, with a mix of bright or sunny spells and some cloudy periods. Top temperatures only 4 to 7 C. It will feel bitterly cold in the fresh easterly breeze. A few light rain or hail showers are possible in eastern coastal counties. Very cold overnight. Some light showers or wintry flurries likely in eastern and southeastern areas, but largely dry elsewhere. Lowest temperatures zero to -4 C., with a hard frost and some icy patches.

Saturday: Cold and bright, with sunny spells, but some cloudy periods too, especially so along eastern coasts, with occasional rain or hail showers. Top temperatures just 4 to 7 C. Very cold overnight with a mix of clear spells and cloudy periods. The cloud along the east coast will produce some showers or light wintry flurries, but most other areas should hold dry. Lowest temperatures zero to plus 2 along the east coast, but -2 to -4 C., elsewhere, with a hard frost under clear skies and some icy patches.

Sunday: Staying cold, with some rain or hail showers on eastern coasts at times, but dry elsewhere. Top temperatures 5 to 8 C. Cold overnight, but with more cloud expected than clear spells. Lowest temperatures -1 to plus 3 C., with some frost forming under cloud breaks. "

Doctor Shivering

gimpotronitus wrote: »

How is the Friday snow event panning out? MT's forecast doesnt look good for Friday.

Ah no,it's still pretty much on track
If you're 150mtrs plus ASL and at least a few km's inland but not so far inland that you mis the precip your showers should be white stuff ,higher parts of S Dublin included and pretty much all of inland Wicklow
It's up to Mother Nature on the specifics
Some places settled snow others none
Some coasts rain,some snow
It's not epic but it's an episode

KingdomRushed

GFS 6z precipitation charts for the weekend seem to be showing a lot of precipitation for Saturday and Sunday, however it looks very random mixture of rain and snow that I am struggling to understand, with snow in some coastal areas and rain in midland areas? 

Doctor Shivering

I wouldn't pay too much heed to those
What's coming is probably a high ground and adjacent to high ground event in the East,wider area if we have that active disturbance

Those etched maps often have rain on land turning to snow at Sea,they're indicative but wildly inaccurate

Iancar29

Friday doesn't seem to have any potentially really IMO. Winds are too slack and directly due east ( not enough of a fetch for showers to organise)

Best chance for streamers to set up is Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Yes the coldest slot of air will be a few hours ahead of it so but in any decent showers, snow should fall and even settle to an extent.
Winds due NE, perfect for counties such as Louth, Meath, Dublin, Wicklow, N. Wexford and parts of Kildare. Isle of Man shadow will be in effect so im sure @Calibos will be ready for that :pac:

Id say showers will begin as sleety rain and slowly turn to snow as the showers bring down the freezing level.

Amounts will vary dramatically between a short distance due to the nature of streamers.

Should start to come into range on the hi res by tomorrow evening.

Calibos

Locked and Loaded!





Here's a little prayer I wrote a few years ago which I think we should dust off:

Our MT, Who art in Vancouver
Hallowed be Thy Name;
Thy Blizzard come,
Thy will be done,
In Ireland as it is in Canada.
Give us this day our Winter Fix,
and forgive us our Hissy fits,
as we forgive those who got more snow than us;
and lead us not into temptation,
but deliver us from Marginality. Amen.

RobertKK

I am confident for the hills of North Kilkenny/Castlecomer plateau.

D9Male

Iancar29 wrote: »

Friday doesn't seem to have any potentially really IMO. Winds are too slack and directly due east ( not enough of a fetch for showers to organise)

Best chance for streamers to set up is Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Yes the coldest slot of air will be a few hours ahead of it so but in any decent showers, snow should fall and even settle to an extent.
Winds due NE, perfect for counties such as Louth, Meath, Dublin, Wicklow, N. Wexford and parts of Kildare. Isle of Man shadow will be in effect so im sure @Calibos will be ready for that :pac:

Id say showers will begin as sleety rain and slowly turn to snow as the showers bring down the freezing level.

Amounts will vary dramatically between a short distance due to the nature of streamers.

Should start to come into range on the hi res by tomorrow evening.

That seems to be a very reasonable assessment of the situation. I think warmer air might be a problem when the precipitation hits, but there is a chance of falling snow Saturday night into Sunday.

Rebelbrowser

Iancar29 wrote: »

Friday doesn't seem to have any potentially really IMO. Winds are too slack and directly due east ( not enough of a fetch for showers to organise)......

Sorry if stupid question, but if winds are due east on Friday, could there be enough of a fetch for streamers to hit us on the south coast? I ask as:-

1. Ireland's south coast is actually east facing in that it is angled that way;
2. The fetch is much longer from, say, Cork to mid Wales than further up our east coast: and
3. Looking at Euro 04 for early Friday (see below), even then its -7 air travelling over the Irish sea which at Buoy 5 off Wexford is currently reading Sea temps of 10c. Big enough differential for lake effect snow isn't it?

Any basis for think such streamers are possible? Sorry if daft question...

Doctor Shivering

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Sorry if stupid question, but if winds are due east on Friday, could there be enough of a fetch for streamers to hit us on the south coast? I ask as:-

1. Ireland's south coast is actually east facing in that it is angled that way;
2. The fetch is much longer from, say, Cork to mid Wales than further up our east coast: and
3. Looking at Euro 04 for early Friday (see below), even then its -7 air travelling over the Irish sea which at Buoy 5 off Wexford is currently reading Sea temps of 10c. Big enough differential for lake effect snow isn't it?

Any basis for think such streamers are possible? Sorry if daft question...

They're rare Rebel but have happened
There comes a point when you're not just fetching a shower you're fetching mix out
Hard to believe on such a beautiful day as today that Saturday into Sunday could be so interesting
That said it could of course mix out too much in the coastal east too
Chief concern is no Surface UK snow cover air to aid the snow protection in the bottom layer of the atmosphere
There's none

Gonzo

I get the feeling this will be very much knife edge stuff. Looks very marginal with warmer zones never too far away. Also looks like most of us will experience the Isle of Man shadow at some point with north-easterly's then turning south-easterly as the coldest section passes to our west.

We've experienced these sort of weak easterly's before where it's simply not cold enough with rain showers down the east coast that only turn to snow about 35 miles inland.

This could be our one and only shot at snow this winter, and in many parts of Leinster, the first shot at snow in 7 years. Hopefully it will be colder than I think with at least a 24 hour period of white gold.

average_runner

I would settled for a dusting that last for an hour, just so my kids can have a bit of excitement. We got a dusting in Jan, lasted the hour and the kids thought it was magic. My 4 year old was so excited.

Doctor Shivering

I'm pretty sure Gonzo that I won't be affected by the Isle of Man!
Down here it's Anglesea and the blasted llewn (pronounced Clean) peninsula:D