Severe Frost countrywide + Occasional Snow Showers in the East from Thursday 9th Feb

Kermit.de.frog

Hola!

This has been slowly bubbling and evolving the last few days (actually up to a week or more) and is finally in to a time frame now that is quite reliable.

From Thursday evening a cold continental airflow is set to quickly become established over the country. The first effect of this will be seen Thursday night with a severe frost particularly in the northwest but across the country inland as well.

Then from Friday for the weekend it's looking increasingly likely that some wintry showers and snow showers will start effecting eastern coastal counties in a northeasterly wind as well as far northwestern counties. Temperatures looking set to be getting very low at that stage, not rising above 2 or 3c in the east generally by day but the real effect is at night. I can see a few -6 or -7c around at least inland. So expect some cold weather warnings.

There will almost certainly be accumulated snow on higher routes in the east, hard to tell at lower elevations right now (although the wind won't be strong and this would favor the possibility at coastal margins likely to be most effected) as this has still some evolving to do on the models.

But it's a safe enough call for the weekend now. Increasingly cold, wintry showers and then some snow showers for eastern areas. Alternating winds between easterly and northeasterly. Frost and Ice around as well.

This could be a longer term cold period well beyond the weekend with differing scenarios as well but not much confidence at that range so do keep informed!

Once the models firm up on the scenario i'll edit the OP with relevant charts. It's minor details need to be firmed up on for the weekend.

Mental Mickey

Horlicks!!!! :-(

D9Male

Do you not get tired of posting these threads?

Looks cold but mainly dry.

Kermit.de.frog

D9Male wrote: »

Do you not get tired of posting these threads?

Looks cold but mainly dry.

For most of the country the problem is cold, for the east and south east it's more than likely hail and snow showers.

Jack the Stripper

Link?

Rebelbrowser

Theres no thread like a Darkman thread!

fraxinus1

This is going to end in tears and tantrums... just saying. I am refusing to get excited

ninebeanrows

DMan has spoken

Kermit.de.frog

fraxinus1 wrote: »

This is going to end in tears and tantrums... just saying. I am refusing to get excited

That tends to be the best way to be with these things

uck51js9zml2yt

What's the southwest looking like for the weekend.....22C and light balmy breezes??????:)

Easterly Beasterly

I'm going to regret this but...

Where do I get my ticket for the rollercoster, I want on!

tayto lover

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

For most of the country the problem is cold, for the east and south east it's more than likely hail and snow showers.

Will there be snow or heavy frost in the N.East on Sun?
I have an important game of golf arranged.

munsterlegend

The Eagle has landed. Hopefully we'll get something big snow wise over the next two weeks what with the Atlantic being so quiet.

uck51js9zml2yt

tayto lover wrote: »

Will there be snow or heavy frost in the N.East on Sun?
I have an important game of golf arranged.

It's ok..M.T will arrange that for you..Just give him your coordinates

Drumpot

So when you say east I presume it's everywhere but Bettystown on the Meath coast?!!!! Not sure what's wrong wth this small area but we never get any decent snow...

Graces7

Waking to this! Ah well, it means for me that I get out tomorrow for essentials like coal... So thank you for the heads up on even a possibility. If ther is any real snow up here, could be but off days and do not want to bother folk who would help at need. West Connaught but high ground.

All made me smile so thank you !

M.T. Cranium

Good to be prepared but the biggest snow chances would appear to be in east Ulster and higher parts of the southeast although I do think snow will occasionally mix in down to sea level this weekend.

Basically the country is just gradually over-run by cold enough air from an easterly source that any showers would become mixed and then snow would begin to dominate in any streamer bands by the weekend. Then there's a sluggish but west-moving disturbance embedded in this easterly that could bring mixed wintry showers further inland and allow them to develop in other regions.

It might be about on a par with mid-March 2013 if folks remember that episode, and as for the golf game on Sunday, you might be able to play but it will certainly be no day to dawdle. It has to be at least 8 C for me to play, I am short enough without the cold air and extra clothing holding me back. My best guess as to mid-day temps on weekend would be 3-4 C.

vicwatson

Drumpot wrote: »

So when you say east I presume it's everywhere but Bettystown on the Meath coast?!!!! Not sure what's wrong wth this small area but we never get any decent snow...

Isle of Man shadow

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Good to be prepared but the biggest snow chances would appear to be in east Ulster and higher parts of the southeast although I do think snow will occasionally mix in down to sea level this weekend.

Basically the country is just gradually over-run by cold enough air from an easterly source that any showers would become mixed and then snow would begin to dominate in any streamer bands by the weekend. Then there's a sluggish but west-moving disturbance embedded in this easterly that could bring mixed wintry showers further inland and allow them to develop in other regions.

It might be about on a par with mid-March 2013 if folks remember that episode, and as for the golf game on Sunday, you might be able to play but it will certainly be no day to dawdle. It has to be at least 8 C for me to play, I am short enough without the cold air and extra clothing holding me back. My best guess as to mid-day temps on weekend would be 3-4 C.

MT; I have family on Salt Spring Island, snowed in and very cold.

Hedging my bets here and shopping tomorrow.. So high here that no way will I risk the track to the road in bad frost.

fraxinus1

Very conservative forecasts this morning from both Met E and MT. Heavy frosts on a few evenings in February with scattered sleety showers is nothing significant. I'm looking forward to a few days of sunny and bracing cold days to get out and about for walks but there'll be no snow for Donegal or most of the country. By this day next week we will be back to the usual blandness.

Graces7

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Very conservative forecasts this morning from both Met E and MT. Heavy frosts on a few evenings in February with scattered sleety showers is nothing significant. I'm looking forward to a few days of sunny and bracing cold days to get out and about for walks but there'll be no snow for Donegal or most of the country. By this day next week we will be back to the usual blandness.

Snow this morning already on the West Galway mountains. Thicker and lower than a few days ago... Just above me in fact..

Doctor Shivering

Model Flux galore but if I was a betting man,I'd guess a few day's of wintry weather followed by a gap and then a longer period as weather from the north or northeast bites back

Back in 1991,a two week wintry snap was flagged by forecasters a week ahead on the BBC tv forecasts
We're only starting to get this now which is encouraging

This initial episode is looking different to what I've seen before in that it includes SE winds,Northeast winds and due east
This means there's a chance of Snow all the way from Waterford up to Down ,varying depending on the wind direction and length of sea fetch

Dew points are key
We are missing a deep cold snow cover in GB so that might be a problem
Our 850's aren't mental either but cold enough to create showers

I'd agree most Eastern coastal areas should at a minimum see flakes by the or over the weekend
FI I would argue is about 80 to 90 hrs so no chance of details yet e.g. whether or where we'll see accumulating snow


I'll be back in from time to time with comments/analysis
Let's get a little bit excited

pad199207

Downgrades have begun now on the 06z. Crap easterly imo.

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

Downgrades have begun now on the 06z. Crap easterly imo.

it's generally looked like a miserable effort anyway compared to any decent easterly we've seen since the 1970s.

Iancar29

06z GFS says cold but mostly dry, Weekend only event. No significant snow accumulations at low levels.

With the 528 dam line over us for roughly 48hrs, the weekend is best hope at seeing any snow along the east coast.


Light winds looks like IOM Shadow will making an appearance so it'll be the variation in wind direction Friday night into Saturday that will be key decider on where may see a dusting.


Overall dewpoints are nice and low so expect to see some nice frosty scenes.


A bit of hope for something more widespread would be the indication of this weak disturbance on Sunday, which would help bring showers further inland.

Doctor Shivering

Gonzo wrote: »

it's generally looked like a miserable effort anyway compared to any decent easterly we've seen since the 1970s.

pad199207 wrote: »

Downgrades have begun now on the 06z. Crap easterly imo.

Seriously?
Looking at this weekend's weather is barely reliable never mind next weeks! And nothing has changed for here anyway
No mental snow has been promised on this attempt but there will be some
If I was to hazard a guess for actual settling as opposed to falling snow (every shower will have some snow,some all snow even on the coasts) I'd put higher parts of Dublin and North Kildare in the frame (because of their position inland or proximity just west/north of hills)

Don't be expecting anything the following week until next week is determinable properly and it isn't right now
I've already given my guess as to proceedings in my last post (short and sweet but a bet it will be back after a gap)
So enjoy what comes if it comes to you

Rebelbrowser

I'll happily take a two day window when there's at least a chance of settling snow (admittedly a 20% shot at best for most, better than that for the Dublin area) as it gives us something to be interested in. Even this looked beyond our hopes until recently when the charts suggested atlantic depression after atlantic depression.

BTW I wouldn't consider the ME forecast conservative. As we have said countless times before ME can't speculate, they must go with the likely outcome which is as they have suggested. If they speculated on an outcome every time there was a 20% chance of it they would lose all credibility. As we are amateurs we have no such constraints however!

lawred2

not going to happen

DOCARCH

lawred2 wrote: »

not going to happen

Fake news...

pad199207

DOCARCH wrote: »

Fake news...

Snow ban

D9Male

I am a very enthusiastic weather watcher, and love snow as much as the next man. However, threads like these really confuse people as to what to expect when there is a chance of unusual weather conditions. To my mind, they should be created when there is a genuine likelihood of something unusual happening.

I don't think we are there yet. What I see is a cold weekend, with bits and bobs of precipitation. This forecast will change. Maybe the easterly will become more potent. Maybe it will become more watered down. But there have been so many threads like this on this forum down the years that have been started too early, and have effects that are similar to the hyperbolic newspaper articles about deep freezes and heat waves

I have been following the models intently for the last few days, as I have something weather dependent that I need to do in Dublin on Saturday. I have never seen a model run sufficient to generate a thread like this.

martinsvi

I'm beginning to change my mind, I was very skeptical mainly due to models showing air mass originating from continent being dry and stable, but the latest model outputs suggest it will have ample opportunity to pick up moisture along North Sea as well as Irish Sea. Both these seas are unseasonably warm, giving surface temperatures around +10C, if you combine it with cold uppers (-8 to -14 depending on a model), you get yourself a massive lapse rate and instability, which would potentially set the stage for lake effect snow. It could even bring thunder with it. Breezy winds might make it more widespread too.

The only weight that's keeping me grounded is that it looks like a very very short lived event, which means that it might not happen at all if one variable is taken away. We are looking at couple of hours at best and probably on the night from Saturday to Sunday. After that, I would say, it will revert back to South-Easterly bringing us cold but dry air

Easterly Beasterly

D9Male wrote: »

I am a very enthusiastic weather watcher, and love snow as much as the next man. However, threads like these really confuse people as to what to expect when there is a chance of unusual weather conditions. To my mind, they should be created when there is a genuine likelihood of something unusual happening.

I don't think we are there yet. What I see is a cold weekend, with bits and bobs of precipitation. This forecast will change. Maybe the easterly will become more potent. Maybe it will become more watered down. But there have been so many threads like this on this forum down the years that have been started too early, and have effects that are similar to the hyperbolic newspaper articles about deep freezes and heat waves

I have been following the models intently for the last few days, as I have something weather dependent that I need to do in Dublin on Saturday. I have never seen a model run sufficient to generate a thread like this.

The thread title is exactly what is being forecast though, why should a thread only be opened when there is extreme weather happening? This is a weather forum. The majority of people here are weather enthusiasts. I have just watched the RTE Weather and it showed snow and Easterly Winds for Friday. Nobody is predicting a blizzard!

Doctor Shivering

D9Male wrote: »

I don't think we are there yet.

I have been following the models intently for the last few days, as I have something weather dependent that I need to do in Dublin on Saturday. I have never seen a model run sufficient to generate a thread like this.

We're not there yet for anything momentous but there is scope for snow in the east and especially if Ian's map verifies

Meanwhile the proclaimer's 500 miles is on RTÉ gold I suggest everyone turns the wireless up..

lawred2

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

We're not there yet for anything momentous but there is scope for snow in the east and especially if Ian's map verifies

Meanwhile the proclaimer's 500 miles is on RTÉ gold I suggest everyone turns the wireless up..

heard enough of that in Edinburgh on Saturday

D9Male

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

The thread title is exactly what is being forecast though, why should a thread only be opened when there is extreme weather happening? This is a weather forum. The majority of people here are weather enthusiasts. I have just watched the RTE Weather and it showed snow and Easterly Winds for Friday. Nobody is predicting a blizzard!

Fair point that the forecast is not outrageous, but I don't think cold weather in February is anything worth creating a thread for. It is just winter weather.

Doctor Shivering

D9Male wrote: »

Fair point that the forecast is not outrageous, but I don't think cold weather in February is anything worth creating a thread for. It is just winter weather.

Are you new to boards

D9Male

No, but you seem to be??????

MidMan25

D9Male wrote: »

Fair point that the forecast is not outrageous, but I don't think cold weather in February is anything worth creating a thread for. It is just winter weather.

Leave the thread so! The title is not misleading, I don't understand what anyone is doing wrong here.

squarecircles

bickering and general grumpiness on the threads this morning,don't have to check the charts so.

Graces7

Lovely sunny springlike day here now. Even took a cup of coffee outside and sat in a sheltered place enjoying surprisingly warm sun.

Much of the snow has dispersed but still some slight cover.

nacho libre

D9Male wrote: »

Fair point that the forecast is not outrageous, but I don't think cold weather in February is anything worth creating a thread for. It is just winter weather.

If that idea was followed through on, there would be little activity on this forum, because our weather is very rarely extreme/ notably unusual. Darkman's thread is fine, he is not engaging in hyperbole, he states in the thread title there maybe occasional snow showers, which there might be.

Unfortunately, it does not look to be a potent easterly, but hopefully there will be a few surprises and a reload of cold after a milder interlude

Doctor Shivering

nacho libre wrote: »

If that idea was followed through on, there would be little activity on this forum, because our weather is very rarely extreme/ notably unusual. Darkman's thread is fine, he is not engaging in hyperbole, he states in the thread title there maybe occasional snow showers, which there might be.

Unfortunately, it does not look to be a potent easterly, but hopefully there will be a few surprises and a reload of cold after a milder interlude

+1
And my joke obviously missed further up thread was you must be new to boards(weather forum) if you're not used to threads like this for snow

There's No bickering at all actually

I'll be back at 7 after the evenings output:)

fraxinus1

Just spoke to a guy who works in Donegal County Council. They keep in very close contact with Met E as they need to know about gritting roads. He said that they have been told to expect severe frosts Friday and Saturday night then not so severe from then onwards as this cold weather is expected to fizzle out by Tuesday next week. Now I'm only passing on what I was told so no accusations of trolling etc.

Gonzo

just after seeing the RTE forecast, they going for a cool weekend with heavy frosts at night and isolated light showers between Dublin and Wexford. daytime temps around 4C which would produce sleet at best at lower levels.

Easterly Beasterly

Gonzo wrote: »

just after seeing the RTE forecast, they going for a cool weekend with heavy frosts at night and isolated light showers between Dublin and Wexford. daytime temps around 4C which would produce sleet at best at lower levels.

Nope.. they said very cold weekend. Taking snow out of the equation saying it will be a cool weekend is misleading. There will be severe frost and ice where there are any showers.

That's not just cool, that's cold.

nagdefy

The weekend looks nailed on cold with severe frost and the odd wintry flurry.

After the mild interlude we may get a reload of cold from around 16th February on. We're at the borderline stage where we're getting a little into borrowed time. Granted the 1947 heaviest snowfalls were 24-26 February and 5th March but in my lifetime after the 3rd week of February it's quite difficult to get snow to lie at lower levels. Stronger sun, longer day. Where i am on the hills snow has stayed. Yet even with us i remember during very cold weather late February/early March 2001 snow used melt off the roads in the daytime but stay in the fields.

So it's last chance saloon alright but who knows, for snow lovers we might just be on the right side of that time borderline and maybe the cold reload will be potent.

Pangea

nagdefy wrote: »

in my lifetime after the 3rd week of February it's quite difficult to get snow to lie at lower levels. .

lucky you, in my lifetime its difficult to get snow to lie at any time :mad: :pac:

Drumpot

Drumpot wrote: »

So when you say east I presume it's everywhere but Bettystown on the Meath coast?!!!! Not sure what's wrong wth this small area but we never get any decent snow...

I don't mind that ...... we get more than our fair share of sun and blue skies in the Summer .... makes up for lack of snow

squarecircles

latest gfs shows very limited,or little or any frost countrywide on saturday and sunday night, back to a balmy 10 and 11 degrees on the west/southwest coast by monday,anyone for some north african sourced air,uhhhh,toasty,mmmm

and back to hopeful wishing of colder weather therafter,chasing a mirage after that id imagine...

christ,its depressing stuff,
wheres the valium.

Rebelbrowser

squarecircles wrote: »

latest gfs shows very limited,or little or any frost countrywide on saturday and sunday night, back to a balmy 10 and 11 degrees on the west/southwest coast by monday,

and back to hopeful wishing of colder weather therafter,chasing a mirage after that id imagine...

christ,its depressing stuff,
wheres the valium.

Yeah, this gfs chart below for midnight on Saturday into Sunday (peek cold I'd have thought) shows rain which is very disappointing. Not giving up the ghost yet though.