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Severe Frost countrywide + Occasional Snow Showers in the East from Thursday 9th Feb

  • 06-02-2017 11:21pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Hola!

    This has been slowly bubbling and evolving the last few days (actually up to a week or more) and is finally in to a time frame now that is quite reliable.

    From Thursday evening a cold continental airflow is set to quickly become established over the country. The first effect of this will be seen Thursday night with a severe frost particularly in the northwest but across the country inland as well.

    Then from Friday for the weekend it's looking increasingly likely that some wintry showers and snow showers will start effecting eastern coastal counties in a northeasterly wind as well as far northwestern counties. Temperatures looking set to be getting very low at that stage, not rising above 2 or 3c in the east generally by day but the real effect is at night. I can see a few -6 or -7c around at least inland. So expect some cold weather warnings.

    There will almost certainly be accumulated snow on higher routes in the east, hard to tell at lower elevations right now (although the wind won't be strong and this would favor the possibility at coastal margins likely to be most effected) as this has still some evolving to do on the models.

    But it's a safe enough call for the weekend now. Increasingly cold, wintry showers and then some snow showers for eastern areas. Alternating winds between easterly and northeasterly. Frost and Ice around as well.

    This could be a longer term cold period well beyond the weekend with differing scenarios as well but not much confidence at that range so do keep informed!

    Once the models firm up on the scenario i'll edit the OP with relevant charts. It's minor details need to be firmed up on for the weekend.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,548 ✭✭✭✭ Mental Mickey


    Horlicks!!!! :-(


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,643 ✭✭✭ D9Male


    Do you not get tired of posting these threads?

    Looks cold but mainly dry.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    D9Male wrote: »
    Do you not get tired of posting these threads?

    Looks cold but mainly dry.

    For most of the country the problem is cold, for the east and south east it's more than likely hail and snow showers.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,203 Jack the Stripper


    Link?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Theres no thread like a Darkman thread!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭ fraxinus1


    This is going to end in tears and tantrums... just saying. I am refusing to get excited


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    DMan has spoken


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    This is going to end in tears and tantrums... just saying. I am refusing to get excited

    That tends to be the best way to be with these things ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,277 ✭✭✭✭ Solomon Shallow Banjo


    What's the southwest looking like for the weekend.....22C and light balmy breezes??????:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 204 ✭✭ Easterly Beasterly


    I'm going to regret this but...

    Where do I get my ticket for the rollercoster, I want on!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 47,059 ✭✭✭✭ tayto lover


    For most of the country the problem is cold, for the east and south east it's more than likely hail and snow showers.

    Will there be snow or heavy frost in the N.East on Sun?
    I have an important game of golf arranged.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    The Eagle has landed. Hopefully we'll get something big snow wise over the next two weeks what with the Atlantic being so quiet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,277 ✭✭✭✭ Solomon Shallow Banjo


    Will there be snow or heavy frost in the N.East on Sun?
    I have an important game of golf arranged.

    It's ok..M.T will arrange that for you..Just give him your coordinates :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,969 ✭✭✭✭ Drumpot


    So when you say east I presume it's everywhere but Bettystown on the Meath coast?!!!! Not sure what's wrong wth this small area but we never get any decent snow...


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,414 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Waking to this! Ah well, it means for me that I get out tomorrow for essentials like coal... So thank you for the heads up on even a possibility. If ther is any real snow up here, could be but off days and do not want to bother folk who would help at need. West Connaught but high ground.

    All made me smile so thank you !


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Good to be prepared but the biggest snow chances would appear to be in east Ulster and higher parts of the southeast although I do think snow will occasionally mix in down to sea level this weekend.

    Basically the country is just gradually over-run by cold enough air from an easterly source that any showers would become mixed and then snow would begin to dominate in any streamer bands by the weekend. Then there's a sluggish but west-moving disturbance embedded in this easterly that could bring mixed wintry showers further inland and allow them to develop in other regions.

    It might be about on a par with mid-March 2013 if folks remember that episode, and as for the golf game on Sunday, you might be able to play but it will certainly be no day to dawdle. It has to be at least 8 C for me to play, I am short enough without the cold air and extra clothing holding me back. :) My best guess as to mid-day temps on weekend would be 3-4 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,289 ✭✭✭✭ vicwatson


    Drumpot wrote: »
    So when you say east I presume it's everywhere but Bettystown on the Meath coast?!!!! Not sure what's wrong wth this small area but we never get any decent snow...

    Isle of Man shadow ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,414 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Good to be prepared but the biggest snow chances would appear to be in east Ulster and higher parts of the southeast although I do think snow will occasionally mix in down to sea level this weekend.

    Basically the country is just gradually over-run by cold enough air from an easterly source that any showers would become mixed and then snow would begin to dominate in any streamer bands by the weekend. Then there's a sluggish but west-moving disturbance embedded in this easterly that could bring mixed wintry showers further inland and allow them to develop in other regions.

    It might be about on a par with mid-March 2013 if folks remember that episode, and as for the golf game on Sunday, you might be able to play but it will certainly be no day to dawdle. It has to be at least 8 C for me to play, I am short enough without the cold air and extra clothing holding me back. :) My best guess as to mid-day temps on weekend would be 3-4 C.


    MT; I have family on Salt Spring Island, snowed in and very cold.

    Hedging my bets here and shopping tomorrow.. So high here that no way will I risk the track to the road in bad frost.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭ fraxinus1


    Very conservative forecasts this morning from both Met E and MT. Heavy frosts on a few evenings in February with scattered sleety showers is nothing significant. I'm looking forward to a few days of sunny and bracing cold days to get out and about for walks but there'll be no snow for Donegal or most of the country. By this day next week we will be back to the usual blandness.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,414 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    Very conservative forecasts this morning from both Met E and MT. Heavy frosts on a few evenings in February with scattered sleety showers is nothing significant. I'm looking forward to a few days of sunny and bracing cold days to get out and about for walks but there'll be no snow for Donegal or most of the country. By this day next week we will be back to the usual blandness.

    Snow this morning already on the West Galway mountains. Thicker and lower than a few days ago... Just above me in fact..


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭ Doctor Shivering


    Model Flux galore but if I was a betting man,I'd guess a few day's of wintry weather followed by a gap and then a longer period as weather from the north or northeast bites back

    Back in 1991,a two week wintry snap was flagged by forecasters a week ahead on the BBC tv forecasts
    We're only starting to get this now which is encouraging

    This initial episode is looking different to what I've seen before in that it includes SE winds,Northeast winds and due east
    This means there's a chance of Snow all the way from Waterford up to Down ,varying depending on the wind direction and length of sea fetch

    Dew points are key
    We are missing a deep cold snow cover in GB so that might be a problem
    Our 850's aren't mental either but cold enough to create showers

    I'd agree most Eastern coastal areas should at a minimum see flakes by the or over the weekend
    FI I would argue is about 80 to 90 hrs so no chance of details yet e.g. whether or where we'll see accumulating snow


    I'll be back in from time to time with comments/analysis
    Let's get a little bit excited :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,440 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Downgrades have begun now on the 06z. Crap easterly imo.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Downgrades have begun now on the 06z. Crap easterly imo.

    it's generally looked like a miserable effort anyway compared to any decent easterly we've seen since the 1970s.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    06z GFS says cold but mostly dry, Weekend only event. No significant snow accumulations at low levels.

    With the 528 dam line over us for roughly 48hrs, the weekend is best hope at seeing any snow along the east coast.
    gfs-3-114_xfj5.png

    Light winds looks like IOM Shadow will making an appearance so it'll be the variation in wind direction Friday night into Saturday that will be key decider on where may see a dusting.
    84-602UK_qiq9.GIF

    Overall dewpoints are nice and low so expect to see some nice frosty scenes.
    90-101UK_jyk3.GIF

    A bit of hope for something more widespread would be the indication of this weak disturbance on Sunday, which would help bring showers further inland.
    120-515UK_aie2.GIF


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭ Doctor Shivering


    Gonzo wrote: »
    it's generally looked like a miserable effort anyway compared to any decent easterly we've seen since the 1970s.
    pad199207 wrote: »
    Downgrades have begun now on the 06z. Crap easterly imo.



    Seriously?
    Looking at this weekend's weather is barely reliable never mind next weeks! And nothing has changed for here anyway
    No mental snow has been promised on this attempt but there will be some
    If I was to hazard a guess for actual settling as opposed to falling snow (every shower will have some snow,some all snow even on the coasts) I'd put higher parts of Dublin and North Kildare in the frame (because of their position inland or proximity just west/north of hills)

    Don't be expecting anything the following week until next week is determinable properly and it isn't right now
    I've already given my guess as to proceedings in my last post (short and sweet but a bet it will be back after a gap)
    So enjoy what comes if it comes to you


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    I'll happily take a two day window when there's at least a chance of settling snow (admittedly a 20% shot at best for most, better than that for the Dublin area) as it gives us something to be interested in. Even this looked beyond our hopes until recently when the charts suggested atlantic depression after atlantic depression.

    BTW I wouldn't consider the ME forecast conservative. As we have said countless times before ME can't speculate, they must go with the likely outcome which is as they have suggested. If they speculated on an outcome every time there was a 20% chance of it they would lose all credibility. As we are amateurs we have no such constraints however!


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,306 ✭✭✭✭ lawred2


    not going to happen


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    lawred2 wrote: »
    not going to happen

    Fake news...


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,440 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Fake news...


    Snow ban


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,643 ✭✭✭ D9Male


    I am a very enthusiastic weather watcher, and love snow as much as the next man. However, threads like these really confuse people as to what to expect when there is a chance of unusual weather conditions. To my mind, they should be created when there is a genuine likelihood of something unusual happening.

    I don't think we are there yet. What I see is a cold weekend, with bits and bobs of precipitation. This forecast will change. Maybe the easterly will become more potent. Maybe it will become more watered down. But there have been so many threads like this on this forum down the years that have been started too early, and have effects that are similar to the hyperbolic newspaper articles about deep freezes and heat waves

    I have been following the models intently for the last few days, as I have something weather dependent that I need to do in Dublin on Saturday. I have never seen a model run sufficient to generate a thread like this.


This discussion has been closed.
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