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Widespread Snow Showers Thurs 12th/Fri 13th Jan 2017

  • 10-01-2017 10:45am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Mods, feel free to shut down if inappropriate but its not often you get a precipitation chart like below less than 48hrs away so lets milk it for all we can!

    Straight off, and just to clarify, this is an event driven by cold air sourced from northern Canada. It is not related to the extreme cold in Poland etc so don't expect expect extreme cold or anything like that. With the windchill though it will feel very cold on Thursday and Friday however. It will get milder as the weekend goes on but there is some chance of a more easterly sourced cold then mid week next week (a 25% chance say - Eastern areas best positioned for this).

    So to the current precipitation chart from GFS (the American Model):-

    17011212_1000.gif

    What this GFS precipitation chart shows is widespread snow for everywhere except the outer east and extreme south at noon on Thursday. Now straight off these are snow showers and will be hit and miss. Equally its perfectly possible the showers will go all the way to Dublin so don't lose heart east coasters. Equally any Cork city boardies worried that it is on the verge needn't worry overly about showers reaching us as we usually do well in such NW flows (think xmas day '04 and 17 Dec 2010). Equally no guarantees at all that the areas in pink will see snow, let alone settling snow - though the further North and west you go the better your chances.

    In my experience the GFS overdoes snow on its precipitation charts so this afternoon's update of the short range tools like euro04 (which only goes out as far as 12am on 13 Jan at the mo) will give a better idea of the breadth and extent of the snow.

    No guarantees at all this won't be a damp squib but we frequently have these dedicated threads for borderline wind events two days away and this country is a lot better prepared for wind than it is for snow.

    Best of luck to coldies awaiting their fix....:)


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w


    Not wanting to burst any bubbles but this is the graphic Carol Kirkwood put up on BBC news 24 just now for Thursday


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    Not wanting to burst any bubbles but this is the graphic Carol Kirkwood put up on BBC news 24 just now for Thursday

    Well better to have the downgrades now! Snow in this island never straightforward.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w


    Well better to have the downgrades now! Snow in this island never straightforward.

    She said the track of that system is causing them some problems but she had the precipitation from it over Munster in the previous frame for Thursday morning

    It's effects seem to be to shorten the showers window for everyone,introduce rain in the south and confine the snow showers window to a timeframe that would only really affect Ulster


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    Well better to have the downgrades now! Snow in this island never straightforward.

    She said the track of that system is causing them some problems but she had the precipitation from it over Munster in the previous frame for Thursday morning

    I presume it was rain bearing!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w


    I presume it was rain bearing!

    Yup! It would delay the onset of the cold NW wind but not delay its departure
    Thus shortening the spell of widespread showers to 12 hrs and limit their extent as there's a delay and a tweak in their coming as the effect of the system is to bend their route more out to sea before coming in
    That's not good as it would bring higher dew points


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,202 ✭✭✭ kingshankly


    Weather forecast last night never even mentioned the word "snow "


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    Weather forecast last night never even mentioned the word "snow "

    True the met.ie forecast though gives a dusting for virtually everywhere on
    Thursday!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    In true boards style it seems by opening this snow thread I have immediately ended its prospects! Thanks for your posts arklow but given their content I can't bring myself to actually click the thank you icon! (sobs quietly...)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w


    Worth mentioning that if that system goes as far north as Munster it's curtains
    If it slides to the south it's game on
    Carol did say it's positioning is going to be a problem


  • Registered Users Posts: 505 ✭✭✭ NeonCookies


    In true boards style it seems by opening this snow thread I have immediately ended its prospects! Thanks for your posts arklow but given their content I can't bring myself to actually click the thank you icon! (sobs quietly...)


    Don't worry Rebelbrowser.. the fact that I'm due to fly from Belfast on Thursday for a long awaited reunion with good friends in Europe means that (with my luck) we're more likely to have an all out blizzard than a downgrade!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Don't worry Rebelbrowser.. the fact that I'm due to fly from Belfast on Thursday for a long awaited reunion with good friends in Europe means that (with my luck) we're more likely to have an all out blizzard than a downgrade!

    I know, I know..am moving house Friday night from one mountain to another. Well we will survive... Whatever.. will wait to hear from my man with a van now but if there is snow here I will not be able to get up the road.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    Worth mentioning that if that system goes as far north as Munster it's curtains
    If it slides to the south it's game on
    Carol did say it's positioning is going to be a problem

    Are all models showing this system?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Hi-res snow accumulation for what it's worth..

    nmmuk-26-72-0_fmz0.png

    Just a rough guide and in reality most of what falls along the west coast will be hail rather than snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    There 6z gfs still saying all snow whete it falls on Thurs so no downgrade there. Would however defer at this stage to the hi res models. As per the fi thread the 6z gfs is now forecadting a proper easterly next week with inevitable snow for the east coast - long way off yet so still only a 30% shot I would say.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Hi-res snow accumulation for what it's worth..

    nmmuk-26-72-0_fmz0.png

    Just a rough guide and in reality most of what falls along the west coast will be hail rather than snow.
    That's not correct imo


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 427 ✭✭ Boggy Turf


    Even to see lots of snow on the Maamturks and Partrys will be splendid.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w


    Are all models showing this system?

    It would be in range of some of the UK high Res tools from today but is being mostly forecast by human forecast + model blending of those tools
    Only today have they that wave this far north which is not to be discounted as it's so close now
    Any move will have big impacts


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Harmonie has Snow rain early Thursday becoming Snow by 5am in Ulster, showers South of Athlone becoming snow around 10am, well scattered but certainly some hill snow Thursday morning for some!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    Basically Thursday will be a now cast scenario with Sat images and Radar telling all. One thing for sure this cold will be a shock to the system. Its 11.1c here in Waterford City and feels so mild.
    Exciting output from the models this morning. Could we finally get the elusive beast from the east next week.

    www.waterfordcityweather.com


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭ Cartouche


    Hope we get lots of snow but too many years of disappointment to get too excited


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 hotwhiskey


    Euro 4 6z. Still good for the Northern half of the country even with the small downgrades this morning. Thats how far the chart will go to 48hrs until next update later.

    17011206_1006.gif.c730fab07d7e7c033e6c71e1b40cb347.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    hotwhiskey wrote: »
    Euro 4 6z. Still good for the Northern half of the country even with the small downgrades this morning. Thats how far the chart will go to 48hrs until next update later.

    17011206_1006.gif.c730fab07d7e7c033e6c71e1b40cb347.gif

    Yeah, you would hope with ground enough reason that 6 hrs later that rain in the south would be snow.


  • Posts: 17,733 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Graces7 wrote: »
    I know, I know..am moving house Friday night from one mountain to another. Well we will survive... Whatever.. will wait to hear from my man with a van now but if there is snow here I will not be able to get up the road.

    Hi, All the best with the move. You're one of my favourite posters on boards.ie, such a positive person :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w


    Yeah, you would hope with ground enough reason that 6 hrs later that rain in the south would be snow.

    Met Eireann seem to think the wave will turn to snow
    If it's track is due east southeast,it would have to wouldn't it as minimum impact on the CAA from the northwest and then that cold air advection would certainly have to be engaging with the front
    Not long until we know
    It's very complicated


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    Met Eireann seem to think the wave will turn to snow
    If it's track is due east southeast,it would have to wouldn't it as minimum impact on the CAA from the northwest and then that cold air advection would certainly have to be engaging with the front
    Not long until we know
    It's very complicated
    so does that mean some parts of the east may see a few showers


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,141 Stealthfins


    Graces7 wrote:
    I know, I know..am moving house Friday night from one mountain to another. Well we will survive... Whatever.. will wait to hear from my man with a van now but if there is snow here I will not be able to get up the road.


    What county are you moving from one mountain to another ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,277 ✭✭✭✭ Leon Shallow Bakery


    Don't worry Rebelbrowser.. the fact that I'm due to fly from Belfast on Thursday for a long awaited reunion with good friends in Europe means that (with my luck) we're more likely to have an all out blizzard than a downgrade!

    I'll meet you for coffee in the airport! I'm flying to Tenerife at 12.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    so does that mean some parts of the east may see a few showers

    There's actually a possibility that higher parts of the southeast might see more snow than Ulster if that wave lingers and engages with the CAA

    Depending on the affect of the wave which could change things radically,the template for this episode is Xmas day 2004
    It snowed in Arklow that day but didn't settle
    It did in Meath and across all the high ground in Dublin and Wicklow


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,141 Stealthfins


    The ground seems to be drying out here,if it's dry enough the snow will stick easily enough.
    That's if it snows.
    A good dry spell until tomorrow would be good.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 hotwhiskey


    Met eireann weather warning

    Wind Warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo
    West to northwest winds will increase tonight, with means of 55 to 65 km/h expected, giving gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Winds will be strongest in exposed coastal and hilly areas.
    Issued:Tuesday 10 January 2017 12:00
    Valid:Tuesday 10 January 2017 22:00 to Wednesday 11 January 2017 10:00


    STATUS YELLOW


    Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
    Weather Advisory
    Very cold wintry weather will develop from Wednesday night onwards.
    Showers will turn wintry in many places, from Wednesday evening to Saturday, with falls of sleet and snow expected. The heaviest of the snow fall is most likely over Ulster, Connacht, north Leinster and west Munster and especially so on high ground.
    Valid 11/1800 to 14/1200 Saturday.

    Issued:Tuesday 10 January 2017 12:00
    Valid:Wednesday 11 January 2017 18:00 to Saturday 14 January 2017 12:00


This discussion has been closed.
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