Widespread Snow Showers Thurs 12th/Fri 13th Jan 2017

Rebelbrowser

Mods, feel free to shut down if inappropriate but its not often you get a precipitation chart like below less than 48hrs away so lets milk it for all we can!

Straight off, and just to clarify, this is an event driven by cold air sourced from northern Canada. It is not related to the extreme cold in Poland etc so don't expect expect extreme cold or anything like that. With the windchill though it will feel very cold on Thursday and Friday however. It will get milder as the weekend goes on but there is some chance of a more easterly sourced cold then mid week next week (a 25% chance say - Eastern areas best positioned for this).

So to the current precipitation chart from GFS (the American Model):-



What this GFS precipitation chart shows is widespread snow for everywhere except the outer east and extreme south at noon on Thursday. Now straight off these are snow showers and will be hit and miss. Equally its perfectly possible the showers will go all the way to Dublin so don't lose heart east coasters. Equally any Cork city boardies worried that it is on the verge needn't worry overly about showers reaching us as we usually do well in such NW flows (think xmas day '04 and 17 Dec 2010). Equally no guarantees at all that the areas in pink will see snow, let alone settling snow - though the further North and west you go the better your chances.

In my experience the GFS overdoes snow on its precipitation charts so this afternoon's update of the short range tools like euro04 (which only goes out as far as 12am on 13 Jan at the mo) will give a better idea of the breadth and extent of the snow.

No guarantees at all this won't be a damp squib but we frequently have these dedicated threads for borderline wind events two days away and this country is a lot better prepared for wind than it is for snow.

Best of luck to coldies awaiting their fix....:)

ArKl0w

Not wanting to burst any bubbles but this is the graphic Carol Kirkwood put up on BBC news 24 just now for Thursday

munsterlegend

ArKl0w wrote: »

Not wanting to burst any bubbles but this is the graphic Carol Kirkwood put up on BBC news 24 just now for Thursday

Well better to have the downgrades now! Snow in this island never straightforward.

ArKl0w

munsterlegend wrote: »

Well better to have the downgrades now! Snow in this island never straightforward.

She said the track of that system is causing them some problems but she had the precipitation from it over Munster in the previous frame for Thursday morning

It's effects seem to be to shorten the showers window for everyone,introduce rain in the south and confine the snow showers window to a timeframe that would only really affect Ulster

munsterlegend

ArKl0w wrote: »

munsterlegend wrote: »

Well better to have the downgrades now! Snow in this island never straightforward.

She said the track of that system is causing them some problems but she had the precipitation from it over Munster in the previous frame for Thursday morning

I presume it was rain bearing!

ArKl0w

munsterlegend wrote: »

I presume it was rain bearing!

Yup! It would delay the onset of the cold NW wind but not delay its departure
Thus shortening the spell of widespread showers to 12 hrs and limit their extent as there's a delay and a tweak in their coming as the effect of the system is to bend their route more out to sea before coming in
That's not good as it would bring higher dew points

kingshankly

Weather forecast last night never even mentioned the word "snow "

munsterlegend

kingshankly wrote: »

Weather forecast last night never even mentioned the word "snow "

True the met.ie forecast though gives a dusting for virtually everywhere on
Thursday!

Rebelbrowser

In true boards style it seems by opening this snow thread I have immediately ended its prospects! Thanks for your posts arklow but given their content I can't bring myself to actually click the thank you icon! (sobs quietly...)

ArKl0w

Worth mentioning that if that system goes as far north as Munster it's curtains
If it slides to the south it's game on
Carol did say it's positioning is going to be a problem

NeonCookies

Rebelbrowser wrote:

In true boards style it seems by opening this snow thread I have immediately ended its prospects! Thanks for your posts arklow but given their content I can't bring myself to actually click the thank you icon! (sobs quietly...)

Don't worry Rebelbrowser.. the fact that I'm due to fly from Belfast on Thursday for a long awaited reunion with good friends in Europe means that (with my luck) we're more likely to have an all out blizzard than a downgrade!

Graces7

NeonCookies wrote: »

Don't worry Rebelbrowser.. the fact that I'm due to fly from Belfast on Thursday for a long awaited reunion with good friends in Europe means that (with my luck) we're more likely to have an all out blizzard than a downgrade!

I know, I know..am moving house Friday night from one mountain to another. Well we will survive... Whatever.. will wait to hear from my man with a van now but if there is snow here I will not be able to get up the road.

munsterlegend

ArKl0w wrote: »

Worth mentioning that if that system goes as far north as Munster it's curtains
If it slides to the south it's game on
Carol did say it's positioning is going to be a problem

Are all models showing this system?

Donegal Storm

Hi-res snow accumulation for what it's worth..



Just a rough guide and in reality most of what falls along the west coast will be hail rather than snow.

Rebelbrowser

There 6z gfs still saying all snow whete it falls on Thurs so no downgrade there. Would however defer at this stage to the hi res models. As per the fi thread the 6z gfs is now forecadting a proper easterly next week with inevitable snow for the east coast - long way off yet so still only a 30% shot I would say.

JanuarySnowstor

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Hi-res snow accumulation for what it's worth..



Just a rough guide and in reality most of what falls along the west coast will be hail rather than snow.

That's not correct imo

Boggy Turf

Even to see lots of snow on the Maamturks and Partrys will be splendid.

ArKl0w

munsterlegend wrote: »

Are all models showing this system?

It would be in range of some of the UK high Res tools from today but is being mostly forecast by human forecast + model blending of those tools
Only today have they that wave this far north which is not to be discounted as it's so close now
Any move will have big impacts

Villain

Harmonie has Snow rain early Thursday becoming Snow by 5am in Ulster, showers South of Athlone becoming snow around 10am, well scattered but certainly some hill snow Thursday morning for some!

mickger844posts

Basically Thursday will be a now cast scenario with Sat images and Radar telling all. One thing for sure this cold will be a shock to the system. Its 11.1c here in Waterford City and feels so mild.
Exciting output from the models this morning. Could we finally get the elusive beast from the east next week.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Cartouche

Hope we get lots of snow but too many years of disappointment to get too excited

hotwhiskey

Euro 4 6z. Still good for the Northern half of the country even with the small downgrades this morning. Thats how far the chart will go to 48hrs until next update later.

Rebelbrowser

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Euro 4 6z. Still good for the Northern half of the country even with the small downgrades this morning. Thats how far the chart will go to 48hrs until next update later.

Yeah, you would hope with ground enough reason that 6 hrs later that rain in the south would be snow.

Graces7

Graces7 wrote: »

I know, I know..am moving house Friday night from one mountain to another. Well we will survive... Whatever.. will wait to hear from my man with a van now but if there is snow here I will not be able to get up the road.

Hi, All the best with the move. You're one of my favourite posters on boards.ie, such a positive person

ArKl0w

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Yeah, you would hope with ground enough reason that 6 hrs later that rain in the south would be snow.

Met Eireann seem to think the wave will turn to snow
If it's track is due east southeast,it would have to wouldn't it as minimum impact on the CAA from the northwest and then that cold air advection would certainly have to be engaging with the front
Not long until we know
It's very complicated

Snowbiee21

ArKl0w wrote: »

Met Eireann seem to think the wave will turn to snow
If it's track is due east southeast,it would have to wouldn't it as minimum impact on the CAA from the northwest and then that cold air advection would certainly have to be engaging with the front
Not long until we know
It's very complicated

so does that mean some parts of the east may see a few showers

Stealthfins

Graces7 wrote:

I know, I know..am moving house Friday night from one mountain to another. Well we will survive... Whatever.. will wait to hear from my man with a van now but if there is snow here I will not be able to get up the road.

What county are you moving from one mountain to another ?

uck51js9zml2yt

NeonCookies wrote: »

Don't worry Rebelbrowser.. the fact that I'm due to fly from Belfast on Thursday for a long awaited reunion with good friends in Europe means that (with my luck) we're more likely to have an all out blizzard than a downgrade!

I'll meet you for coffee in the airport! I'm flying to Tenerife at 12.

ArKl0w

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

so does that mean some parts of the east may see a few showers

There's actually a possibility that higher parts of the southeast might see more snow than Ulster if that wave lingers and engages with the CAA

Depending on the affect of the wave which could change things radically,the template for this episode is Xmas day 2004
It snowed in Arklow that day but didn't settle
It did in Meath and across all the high ground in Dublin and Wicklow

Stealthfins

The ground seems to be drying out here,if it's dry enough the snow will stick easily enough.
That's if it snows.
A good dry spell until tomorrow would be good.

hotwhiskey

Met eireann weather warning

Wind Warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo
West to northwest winds will increase tonight, with means of 55 to 65 km/h expected, giving gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Winds will be strongest in exposed coastal and hilly areas.
Issued:Tuesday 10 January 2017 12:00
Valid:Tuesday 10 January 2017 22:00 to Wednesday 11 January 2017 10:00


STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
Weather Advisory
Very cold wintry weather will develop from Wednesday night onwards.
Showers will turn wintry in many places, from Wednesday evening to Saturday, with falls of sleet and snow expected. The heaviest of the snow fall is most likely over Ulster, Connacht, north Leinster and west Munster and especially so on high ground.
Valid 11/1800 to 14/1200 Saturday.

Issued:Tuesday 10 January 2017 12:00
Valid:Wednesday 11 January 2017 18:00 to Saturday 14 January 2017 12:00

Boggy Turf

Nice windchill and snow on Carrauntoohill over next few days.

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Carrauntoohil/forecasts/1038

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Silly posts removed. And...responses to silly posts also removed!

While some of us may be lucky enough to get some light snow in the next couple of days, note that snow (...inevitably...) leads to heavy moderation!

munsterlegend

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Met eireann weather warning




Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
Weather Advisory
Very cold wintry weather will develop from Wednesday night onwards.
Showers will turn wintry in many places, from Wednesday evening to Saturday, with falls of sleet and snow expected. The heaviest of the snow fall is most likely over Ulster, Connacht, north Leinster and west Munster and especially so on high ground.
Valid 11/1800 to 14/1200 Saturday.

Issued:Tuesday 10 January 2017 12:00
Valid:Wednesday 11 January 2017 18:00 to Saturday 14 January 2017 12:00

Not sure which counties in Munster are most at risk!

Stealthfins

munsterlegend wrote:

Not sure which counties in Munster are most at risk!

I'd say from North Clare across to the east Clare hills will get a pasting.

torres9kop

Lads Im in killarney from wednesday to Friday then travelling back to Dublin. Anyone have a fair idea on possible disruption in travelling down and back and in Killarney itself? Will Kerry get any snow or is it too far south? Thanks

q85dw7osi4lebg

torres9kop wrote: »

Lads Im in killarney from wednesday to Friday then travelling back to Dublin. Anyone have a fair idea on possible disruption in travelling down and back and in Killarney itself? Will Kerry get any snow or is it too far south? Thanks

Main routes should be fine.

munsterlegend

Stealthfins wrote: »

I'd say from North Clare across to the east Clare hills will get a pasting.

We usually do well in cork from a nw direction in getting precipitation unless of course it's modified and just rain.

Macy0161

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Met eireann weather warning

Well Wicklow Co Co are running with it anyway - just got the text alert... Maybe playing it down in my head, but not expecting much from a north westerly, even at this level tbh. I await to be corrected by artic tree though!

munsterlegend

http://m.met.ie/weather-warnings.aspx?t=National

Warning updated now to a weather advisory for Ireland. No counties mentioned specifically.

NeonCookies

Leon Shallow Bakery wrote:

I'll meet you for coffee in the airport! I'm flying to Tenerife at 12.

My flight is later at 16.40. Hopefully you're well on your way by the time I get there! :-) I'm so conflicted in my emotions about this weather!! If I can't fly on Thursday, there better be enough snow in my back garden for a massive snowman!

ArKl0w

We seem to be good to go for Thursday snow almost nationwide now
UK met office are putting the wave more south

Breathe in
Breathe out

JCX BXC

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
Very cold wintry weather will develop from Wednesday night onwards.
Showers will turn wintry in many places, from Wednesday evening to Saturday, with falls of sleet and snow expected. The heaviest of the snow fall is most likely over Ulster, Connacht, north Leinster and west Munster and especially so on high ground.
Issued:Tuesday 10 January 2017 15:00
Valid:Wednesday 11 January 2017 18:03 to Saturday 14 January 2017 12:00


Updated weather advisory from Met Eireann.

munsterlegend

ArKl0w wrote: »

We seem to be good to go for Thursday snow almost nationwide now
UK met office are putting the wave more south

Breathe in
Breathe out

Excellent.thought we were doomed before it began down here.

ArKl0w

NeonCookies wrote: »

My flight is later at 16.40. Hopefully you're well on your way by the time I get there! :-) I'm so conflicted in my emotions about this weather!! If I can't fly on Thursday, there better be enough snow in my back garden for a massive snowman!

It's very very unlikely in my opinion that snow will delay flights from Dublin
Belfast Derry or Knock maybe

JCX BXC

No way any accumulations will delay flights significantly. Few cm's at max.

NeonCookies

ArKl0w wrote:

It's very very unlikely in my opinion that snow will delay flights from Dublin Belfast Derry or Knock maybe

Unfortunately for me, Belfast had the cheapest flights so went with it. Oh well. What happens happens!

Was leaving Belfast earlier today and there was a snowplough behind me on the road. Obviously getting everything into position!

Following this thread with interest :-)

Stealthfins

munsterlegend wrote:

We usually do well in cork from a nw direction in getting precipitation unless of course it's modified and just rain.

From around West Limerick right across part's of North Kerry on into Mitchellstown in Cork should get some snow too.

Captain Snow

Low Pressure system further south on this run. Possible snow event east coast friday. High Pressure building in the North East may push this low further south on each run.

Rebelbrowser

GFS still looking pretty (of course this doesn't tell us how much settles...)



The higher resolution hirlam shows it as rain 7 snow initially but increasingly turning to snow...



and



In fact the 12z gfs is an upgrade for the coming days but a downgrade for easterly prospects next week....

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

GFS still looking pretty (of course this doesn't tell us how much settles...)



The higher resolution hirlam shows it as rain 7 snow initially but increasingly turning to snow...



and



In fact the 12z gfs is an upgrade for the coming days but a downgrade for easterly prospects next week....

I presume the uppers aren't cold enough at first to support snow and will slowly drift south.