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Milk Price III

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 607 ✭✭✭jack o shea


    10% is not worth a fcuk tho is it lads, they are riding us sideways in the lower price years why don't they offer us 30 cent for the full years supply?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15 Jacquesdalad


    Has anyone tried to fix feed and fert prices for 18mth to 3yrs?
    Your local friendly merchant should be amenable.
    Fix 10% of feed and fert for duration of contract?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,983 ✭✭✭alps


    Sillycave wrote: »
    Will feed and fert follow milk price and if so which follows which!!!
    Probably does as milk price has risen so too has fert, will feed follow soon?
    What would happen if feed and fert rose but milk price dropped?
    Aside from that 30.6c per litre is a hell of alot better that the 22c per litre last year and it should provide some little bit of insulation should prices fall

    Milk price follows the other 2 in a roundabout kinda way, which leads to a lag in the way up and also on the way down. This lag is the opportunity for the dairy farmer to make higher returns than normal.
    Simple....buy as much if your inputs as possible before they increase in price...
    And........sell as much of your products as possible before they decrease in price..

    First one is simple enough, but need finance facilities, and foreword buying to complete. The second one we can only partially offset, and that is by these fixed milk price schemes, and assessing the correct time to partake. The US lads are masters at this and have systems you should adhere to to make it work.

    Milk price is determined by supply and demand. When feed prices are low, more milk comes on stream, increasing output and lowering milk price. When feed prices are high, less marginal milk is produced, and after a time lag, price begins to recover.

    Fertiliser prices are linked to energy costs, and this has an effect on milk demand, as oil producing nations need oil revenue to be able to purchase product, that which is often the marginal production.

    So for a high milk price we need...high oil prices, to increase buying power of 3rd world nations, and high cereal prices to dampen world production of milk.

    We may also score better in this country if the milk price might rise to around 35c, enabling Irish family farms to make a profit, but not insentivising a lift in milk production worldwide.

    However, as we currently get 30c/l, some of our European competitors are now paying 34c with top ups, so when we get to 35c, maybe the competition will be on 40c and cereals on the floor, they will produce like he'll....


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭Keepgrowing


    alps wrote: »
    Milk price follows the other 2 in a roundabout kinda way, which leads to a lag in the way up and also on the way down. This lag is the opportunity for the dairy farmer to make higher returns than normal.
    Simple....buy as much if your inputs as possible before they increase in price...
    And........sell as much of your products as possible before they decrease in price..

    First one is simple enough, but need finance facilities, and foreword buying to complete. The second one we can only partially offset, and that is by these fixed milk price schemes, and assessing the correct time to partake. The US lads are masters at this and have systems you should adhere to to make it work.

    Milk price is determined by supply and demand. When feed prices are low, more milk comes on stream, increasing output and lowering milk price. When feed prices are high, less marginal milk is produced, and after a time lag, price begins to recover.

    Fertiliser prices are linked to energy costs, and this has an effect on milk demand, as oil producing nations need oil revenue to be able to purchase product, that which is often the marginal production.

    So for a high milk price we need...high oil prices, to increase buying power of 3rd world nations, and high cereal prices to dampen world production of milk.

    We may also score better in this country if the milk price might rise to around 35c, enabling Irish family farms to make a profit, but not insentivising a lift in milk production worldwide.

    However, as we currently get 30c/l, some of our European competitors are now paying 34c with top ups, so when we get to 35c, maybe the competition will be on 40c and cereals on the floor, they will produce like he'll....

    Great post.

    That's why we're taking s chunk of the latest offerings from GII. It's not for today's price and for a portion of our milk as we want to be in a position to put in a larger volume if/when price rises.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    alps wrote: »

    Milk price is determined by supply and demand. When feed prices are low, more milk comes on stream, increasing output and lowering milk price. When feed prices are high, less marginal milk is produced, and after a time lag, price begins to recover.

    Fertiliser prices are linked to energy costs, and this has an effect on milk demand, as oil producing nations need oil revenue to be able to purchase product, that which is often the marginal production.

    So for a high milk price we need...high oil prices, to increase buying power of 3rd world nations, and high cereal prices to dampen world production of milk.

    +100 fantastic summary of milk, particularly marginal milk there.

    All of the above are ways in which oil & other commodities are interlinked, but just to complicate things there is no objective cause and effect between milk & oil and most other commodities.. even if over time the two tend to be correlated. Off the top of my head the increase in cereal prices tends to pull milk up as people switch protein sources, and vice versa, but there are plenty more.

    The relative strength of the dollar has an important effect as well.

    I'm a bit surprised at the speed of the rebound in oil, and I wonder will we see quite a bit of volatility in both oil and the $ in the coming months. I suspect also that, barring weather events, there is still a lot of underused capacity in milk production worldwide.

    If we are very lucky those factors might conspire to keep milk, like goldilocks soup, not too hot and not too cold. But they might not.

    But if anything times are more febrile even than last year - neither inflation nor interest rates are going to stay down indefinitely. Given that both of those have major implications for input prices and, further out, for land prices the big challenge this year is going to be banking profits for the next downturn rather than using them to fund expansion. Very sharp pencils required.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 178 ✭✭Sillycave


    alps wrote: »
    Milk price follows the other 2 in a roundabout kinda way, which leads to a lag in the way up and also on the way down. This lag is the opportunity for the dairy farmer to make higher returns than normal.
    Simple....buy as much if your inputs as possible before they increase in price...
    And........sell as much of your products as possible before they decrease in price..

    First one is simple enough, but need finance facilities, and foreword buying to complete. The second one we can only partially offset, and that is by these fixed milk price schemes, and assessing the correct time to partake. The US lads are masters at this and have systems you should adhere to to make it work.

    Milk price is determined by supply and demand. When feed prices are low, more milk comes on stream, increasing output and lowering milk price. When feed prices are high, less marginal milk is produced, and after a time lag, price begins to recover.

    Fertiliser prices are linked to energy costs, and this has an effect on milk demand, as oil producing nations need oil revenue to be able to purchase product, that which is often the marginal production.

    So for a high milk price we need...high oil prices, to increase buying power of 3rd world nations, and high cereal prices to dampen world production of milk.

    We may also score better in this country if the milk price might rise to around 35c, enabling Irish family farms to make a profit, but not insentivising a lift in milk production worldwide.

    However, as we currently get 30c/l, some of our European competitors are now paying 34c with top ups, so when we get to 35c, maybe the competition will be on 40c and cereals on the floor, they will produce like he'll....

    Super post, well worth printing


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,376 ✭✭✭✭whelan2




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,633 ✭✭✭✭Buford T. Justice XIX


    All bids rejected for the latest round of EU skim tenders.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/eu-milk-powder-stocks-fail-to-sell-again-as-commission-rejects-all-bids-35437122.html

    This is starting to look like it's going to be a problem to shift it unless the GDT prices get a dramatic lift soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭Fixture


    All bids rejected for the latest round of EU skim tenders.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/eu-milk-powder-stocks-fail-to-sell-again-as-commission-rejects-all-bids-35437122.html

    This is starting to look like it's going to be a problem to shift it unless the GDT prices get a dramatic lift soon.

    Always the downside of intervention is that it overhangs the market until stocks are cleared. But good to see they're holding the line on price


  • Registered Users Posts: 552 ✭✭✭Morris Moss


    Anybody on here sign up to Glanbia's fixed price scheme? Milk manager rang today and asked did I want to put more milk in which I thought was odd, was thinking maybe not many are signed up.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    Anybody on here sign up to Glanbia's fixed price scheme? Milk manager rang today and asked did I want to put more milk in which I thought was odd, was thinking maybe not many are signed up.

    At least you have a Milk manager.
    And yes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 552 ✭✭✭Morris Moss


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    At least you have a Milk manager.
    And yes.

    He's not normally someone ya want to see ringing ha, happy enough he did though put a bit more in myself, although it probably doesn't matter as it's unlikely I'll get much.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    He's not normally someone ya want to see ringing ha, happy enough he did though put a bit more in myself, although it probably doesn't matter as it's unlikely I'll get much.

    Ah you never know.
    It's hard to know how these things are worked out.
    You must have stuck the 50 Euro note in with in the application.;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭Fixture


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    Ah you never know.
    It's hard to know how these things are worked out.
    You must have stuck the 50 Euro note in with in the application.;)

    Hope you said nice things about them in the survey!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,477 ✭✭✭stanflt


    Anybody on here sign up to Glanbia's fixed price scheme? Milk manager rang today and asked did I want to put more milk in which I thought was odd, was thinking maybe not many are signed up.

    Put 120k into both 8 and 9
    Milk manager reckons I'll be lucky to get 10k in each


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,376 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    See in the journal we got a new Glanbia board member in our area.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭Keepgrowing


    whelan2 wrote: »
    See in the journal we got a new Glanbia board member in our area.

    Was that unexpected?


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,376 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    Was that unexpected?
    Well I was surprised to read it but change is good -I hope


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,376 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    Glanbia January milk price up 1 cpl to 31cpl


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,931 ✭✭✭GrasstoMilk


    whelan2 wrote: »
    Glanbia January milk price up 1 cpl to 31cpl

    Glanbia increases January milk price
    http://farmersjournal.ie/glanbia-increases-january-milk-price-255306

    IFJ got it wrong?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,856 ✭✭✭mf240


    Glanbia increases January milk price
    http://farmersjournal.ie/glanbia-increases-january-milk-price-255306

    IFJ got it wrong?

    That's excluding vat.

    It's moving in the right direction anyway


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,376 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    mf240 wrote: »
    That's excluding vat.

    It's moving in the right direction anyway

    Would it not be easier to publish all the prices all inclusive of vat ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 81 ✭✭CallofGuti


    whelan2 wrote: »
    Would it not be easier to publish all the prices all inclusive of vat ?

    It would definitely but coops don't actually pay the vat is my Uncle's theory. He says the vat inclusive price makes the coop look better!!! I'm not sure.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,633 ✭✭✭✭Buford T. Justice XIX


    Kerry rise January milk price by 2c, I think but am confused about the bloody vat rate.

    http://www.farmersjournal.ie/kerry-sets-january-milk-price-255827


  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭Fixture


    Kerry rise January milk price by 2c, I think but am confused about the bloody vat rate.

    http://www.farmersjournal.ie/kerry-sets-january-milk-price-255827


    VAT rebate (paid by State) increased from 5.2 to 5.4% from 1 Jan. So if a processor holds their VAT inclusive price this month, then its effectively a reduction in what they are paying for milk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,160 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    Arrabawn up 1 cent to 31.75 vat inc year is looking good


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,376 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    Glanbia milk statements are up on line and payments are in bank account


  • Registered Users Posts: 532 ✭✭✭wats the craic


    strathroy price is 32.674 for jan


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,633 ✭✭✭✭Buford T. Justice XIX


    strathroy price is 32.674 for jan
    That's including vat, isn't it?

    The journal needs a good kick in the unmentionables for starting this milk price and add vat when the vast majority of farmers talk of vat inclusive price:mad:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,611 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    Dairygold is 31 incl vat


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