Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Jimoslimos

catbear wrote: »

Well in the FTTP system the majority Leave voter might get split between UKip and Tory but the LibDem might win on the 40% remain vote!

Would be nice alright but realistically nigh-on impossible! Conservatives had 56% of the vote last time so shouldn't be anything other than a comfortable win.

But it will be interesting to see whether either UKIP and/or Lib Dem increase their vote share.

If anything the worst scenario would be a Tory win but gains for both UKIP and Lib Dem. Might indicate an increasing polarisation about Brexit amongst the electorate and a message that Brexit isn't happening fast or hard enough (UKIP).

Capt'n Midnight

Unpossible wrote: »

The problem is that 27 nations have to agree on a deal, is she going to come up with carrots and sticks for everyone at the table?

By coincidence there are 27 train companies in the UK.

Anyway the only stick seems to be the UK not buying as many prestige German cars if there are tariffs.

They are prestige marques. People have always paid a premium for them. And the German manufacturers know this and have already said they are more concerned about the possibility of not having a single market than any dip in sales in the UK.

The UK mostly exports generic cars made by foreign owned companies. The sort of stuff could be made in Poland or Turkey. The sort of stuff that would have to compete with the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese on the world market

Fratton Fred

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Anyway the only stick seems to be the UK not buying as many prestige German cars if there are tariffs

And mushrooms, don't forget the mushrooms.

FrancieBrady

Jimoslimos wrote: »

Would be nice alright but realistically nigh-on impossible! Conservatives had 56% of the vote last time so shouldn't be anything other than a comfortable win.

But it will be interesting to see whether either UKIP and/or Lib Dem increase their vote share.

If anything the worst scenario would be a Tory win but gains for both UKIP and Lib Dem. Might indicate an increasing polarisation about Brexit amongst the electorate and a message that Brexit isn't happening fast or hard enough (UKIP).

If somebody comes up with a decent intelligible policy for the future I could see UKIP taking a hit.
There aren't that many stupid people in the UK. There simply couldn't be and I think given a second chance and a decent debate they wouldn't get near the numbers they got.

Grayson

Interesting article about brexit that raises 20 points

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/06/twenty-reasons-brexit-trickier-than-we-thought

These are two of my favourite and really show the bull that is coming out of the UK government.

Liam Fox would break the law if he did his job
After he took the role of international trade secretary, Fox boasted that he would have “about a dozen free trade deals outside the EU” ready for when Britain left. But it is illegal for Britain, as an EU member state, to negotiate bilateral trade deals. Fox later quietly backtracked on his promise. No one knows what he’s doing with his time at the moment.

Theresa May’s promises on food labelling are straight outta Pyongyang
In a speech at the Conservative party conference, May promised that Britain would now control how it labels food. But these rules have nothing to do with the EU. They come from a general code at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). For May to deliver on this promise, she would have to adopt the North Korean model of total isolation. She either didn’t know what she was saying was nonsense, or didn’t care.

Grayson

It's all ok though. Microsoft has said that LinkedIn will make everyone feel better again. Seriously, they said that

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/12/07/microsoft_linkedin_buy_approved_by_ec/?mt=1481092832357

Microsoft says buying LinkedIn will help to address the middle class discontent that saw Britain vote to leave the European Union and America vote to leave politics as we know it behind by electing Donald Trump.

The company has expressed that sentiment in its post announcing the European Commission's approval of its acquisition of LinkedIn.

Billy86

Just a quick update on the company I was supposed the be interviewed over moving their HQ from London to Dublin, it was Vodafone... though the recruiter had her info wrong. They are/were merely moving a large number of contractors, sorry for the false alarm lads and ladies!

Fratton Fred

Billy86 wrote: »

Just a quick update on the company I was supposed the be interviewed over moving their HQ from London to Dublin, it was Vodafone... though the recruiter had her info wrong. They are/were merely moving a large number of contractors, sorry for the false alarm lads and ladies!

scarleh for ya

I worked for Vodafone in the UK for six years. They've been moving to Ireland ever since they bought eircell, or at least threatening to.

Billy86

Fratton Fred wrote: »

scarleh for ya

I worked for Vodafone in the UK for six years. They've been moving to Ireland ever since they bought eircell, or at least threatening to.

Certainly got the interview view and prep work off on the wrong footing alright! :pac:

Guessing the recruiter jumped to a conclusion and got a bit too excited over potential future job holders. God damn salesperson mentalities!!

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

scarleh for ya

I worked for Vodafone in the UK for six years. They've been moving to Ireland ever since they bought eircell, or at least threatening to.

Because I didn't have a credit history in the UK Vodafone charged me an extortionate deposit! Bastards!!!

VinLieger

Fratton Fred wrote: »

scarleh for ya

I worked for Vodafone in the UK for six years. They've been moving to Ireland ever since they bought eircell, or at least threatening to.

Didnt they outsource much of their Irish operation to Rigney Dolphin?

Kotek Besar

VinLieger wrote: »

Didnt they outsource much of their Irish operation to Rigney Dolphin?

I think Rigney Dolphin in Waterford handle Vodafone calls. Not sure if it's Voda UK or Voda IE though.

Fratton Fred

Kotek Besar wrote: »

I think Rigney Dolphin in Waterford handle Vodafone calls. Not sure if it's Voda UK or Voda IE though.

Ireland I believe (they used to do Meteor as well).

I think a lot of Voda customer care is in Egypt now and they have a pretty big operation in Luxembourg as well.

Vodafone and ESB have a joint venture at the moment and I think ti is a bit of a test bed for future fibre roll out, so I would imagine that's what a lot of these contractors are for. http://siro.ie/

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

steddyeddy wrote: »

As we've seen Boris is completely willing to screw his own country for political gain. He's a dangerous man.

Boris, like Arlene Foster, never really believed that Brexit would happen and hopped on a bandwagon.

He has played it quite craftily so far, I would have thought his refusal to take the reins would have totally destroyed him but he could lead yet.

Arlene continues to flounder, and isn't really convincing anyone.

Arlene hasn't done anything wrong, what has she done that you disagree with? She has to go with the majority which is Brexit.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

Arlene hasn't done anything wrong, what has she done that you disagree with? She has to go with the majority which is Brexit.

She advocated Brexiting, then immediately started back tracking on it.
If she believed in Brexit why is she now trying to dilute it's effects.

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Arlene hasn't done anything wrong, what has she done that you disagree with? She has to go with the majority which is Brexit.

She advocated Brexiting, then immediately started back tracking on it.
If she believed in Brexit why is she now trying to dilute it's effects.

She wants NI to get a good deal, she still supports Brexit. Even Mcguinness knows Brexit will go ahead.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

She wants NI to get a good deal, she still supports Brexit. Even Mcguinness knows Brexit will go ahead.

She immediately backtracked and looked for a special deal for NI because she knew and knows that NI is f***ed without the EU.
To advocate for such a thing (Brexit) qualifies under 'stupid' and 'wrongheaded' beyond belief everyday of the week in my book.

demfad

Check this article out.
Fox has admitted that even if the UK goes under WTO rules it will try and replicate as exactly as possible the single market tariffs and regulations!!!!!!

To so otherwise would trigger a tsunami of WTO trade disputes against the UK.

There is officially no point to Brexit!

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/12/06/very-quietly-liam-fox-admits-the-brexit-lie

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

She wants NI to get a good deal, she still supports Brexit. Even Mcguinness knows Brexit will go ahead.

She immediately backtracked and looked for a special deal for NI because she knew and knows that NI is f***ed without the EU.
To advocate for such a thing (Brexit) qualifies under 'stupid' and 'wrongheaded' beyond belief everyday of the week in my book.

Getting sovereignty and the supremacy of British law back is not stupid.

Anyway, great news. 
[font=Arial, sans-serif]BREAKING: Parliament votes 461-89 to trigger Article 50 by 31st March 2017[/font]

Sand

demfad wrote: »

Check this article out.
Fox has admitted that even if the UK goes under WTO rules it will try and replicate as exactly as possible the single market tariffs and regulations!!!!!!

To so otherwise would trigger a tsunami of WTO trade disputes against the UK.

There is officially no point to Brexit!

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/12/06/very-quietly-liam-fox-admits-the-brexit-lie

In fairness, I think they are making too much of that. Mirroring the existing situation makes sense for the short-medium term. Britain can deviate from it later. The blog does make a very good point on the tariff rate quotas though - Britain has handed every trading partner a stick to beat it with in negotiations. Brexit really was an idiotic decision.

Sand

A Little Pony wrote: »

Getting sovereignty and the supremacy of British law back is not stupid.

Anyway, great news. 
[font=Arial, sans-serif]BREAKING: Parliament votes 461-89 to trigger Article 50 by 31st March 2017[/font]

That's the Parliament the government didn't want to have any role for in Brexit, right? Funny the first instinct of the British government was to reject the elected parliament having any input - the loss of power UK voters might feel is much more to do with the UK government ignoring and dismissing them, not the EU. Brexit wont solve that.

Capt'n Midnight

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38243500

MPs backed Labour's motion, calling for scrutiny of the government over Brexit, by 448 votes to 75 - a margin of 373

NB. The House of Commons' decisions are not binding on ministers.

So these votes like the referendum itself are just opinion polls.

Capt'n Midnight

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38227674

The National Centre for Social Research finds that of those who told it in May that they were likely to vote Leave, 11% did not actually vote.

For those saying they were likely to vote Remain, the non-voting figure was 19%.

Oh dear.

The report says voters were more likely to "follow the position" of the newspaper they read than the political party they identified with.

Oh crap.

And as we know those who voted leave include the list of those who will be exploited when the Tories roll back the EU health and employment legislation.

demfad

Sand wrote: »

In fairness, I think they are making too much of that. Mirroring the existing situation makes sense for the short-medium term. Britain can deviate from it later. The blog does make a very good point on the tariff rate quotas though - Britain has handed every trading partner a stick to beat it with in negotiations. Brexit really was an idiotic decision.

But the tariff rates will be a zero sum game. If Britain tries to deviate at a later date it will trigger a trade dispute from the other party and sanctions. They cannot gain any advantage from setting their own different rates because they can't set their own different rate

Edit: agree with your assessment of the quotas . They can't afford to be hit with trading disputes when vulnerable after exiting the single market. That makes their position very weak.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

But the tariff rates will be a zero sum game. If Britain tries to deviate at a later date it will trigger a trade dispute from the other party and sanctions. They cannot gain any advantage from setting their own different rates because they can't set their own different rate

Edit: agree with your assessment of the quotas . They can't afford to be hit with trading disputes when vulnerable after exiting the single market. That makes their position very weak.

Deviate is probably not the right word. Renegotiate bespoke terms is probably more accurate.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

Getting sovereignty and the supremacy of British law back is not stupid.

Anyway, great news. 
[font=Arial, sans-serif]BREAKING: Parliament votes 461-89 to trigger Article 50 by 31st March 2017[/font]

You had sovereignty and only enacted legislation you agreed with. You vetoed more than any other member state and had more opt outs.

What laws would you want to change that evoke British supremacy?

Sand

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You had sovereignty and only enacted legislation you agreed with. You vetoed more than any other member state and had more opt outs.

What laws would you want to change that evoke British supremacy?

I don't think he'll be able to come up with a response to that.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Deviate is probably not the right word. Renegotiate bespoke terms is probably more accurate.

No. The most favoured nation rule means if you give a concession to a product for one trading partner you must give it to all trading partners big or small, rich or poor, weak or strong.

They can negotiate free trade deals etc but the starting point as far as WTO schedules seems to be where they will stay.

And the starting point is tailored for the EU not the UK. What is the point of Brexit?

Sovereignty to have the trading relationship that suits the EU perfectly, just after removing themselves from the EU.

Enzokk

A Little Pony wrote: »

Arlene hasn't done anything wrong, what has she done that you disagree with? She has to go with the majority which is Brexit.

A Little Pony wrote: »

She wants NI to get a good deal, she still supports Brexit. Even Mcguinness knows Brexit will go ahead.

Is Arlene Foster the First Minister of the UK or Northern Ireland? I seem to remember that NI voted to remain. Surely in a democracy she needs to heed the voice of the majority, or does this only count for when you want them to do what you want?

Seems like she is in the same position as most MPs, they don't want to Brexit but they have to. She wants to Brexit but her voters which she represents don't want to. She needs to work hard to try and oppose the Brexit vote, seeing as she is getting what she wants though this seems unlikely. She will have to go against the majority of voters at her own peril in the next election, same as those MPs in the UK that are thinking about opposing Brexit, apparently.

Professor Moriarty

demfad wrote: »

No. The most favoured nation rule means if you give a concession to a product for one trading partner you must give it to all trading partners big or small, rich or poor, weak or strong.

They can negotiate free trade deals etc but the starting point as far as WTO schedules seems to be where they will stay.

And the starting point is tailored for the EU not the UK. What is the point of Brexit?

The placating of the Tory right.