Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

demfad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Even if the government loses the case, they'll still very likely get a Brexit bill through parliament.

If there are amendments to it, as labour claim there will (single market entry) this will cause issues. One issue is that an article 50 with any conditions may not be accepted by the 27 before negotiations begin. They might get it back with a 'try again' note attached.

May now saying she wants a Red, White and Blue Brexit. This beggars belief.

greendom

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That was always a remain seat, though, and the Tories didn't actually field a candidate.

In a desperate attempt to stop the Lib Dems from winning. Neither did UKIP

dwayneshintzy

"Red, white and blue Brexit", the memo telling people to stop leaking memos getting leaked.....this is all incredibly Thick of It-ish.

ohnonotgmail

demfad wrote: »

If there are amendments to it, as labour claim there will (single market entry) this will cause issues. One issue is that an article 50 with any conditions may not be accepted by the 27 before negotiations begin. They might get it back with a 'try again' note attached.

May now saying she wants a Red, White and Blue Brexit. This beggars belief.

she has to be aggressive or the whole thing will collapse.

Professor Moriarty

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

with a current majority of 14? A 3 line whip would be required.

Labour have made it clear that they won't oppose Brexit. At best, a few amendments could be forced but it would go through both houses.

Professor Moriarty

demfad wrote: »

If there are amendments to it, as labour claim there will (single market entry) this will cause issues. One issue is that an article 50 with any conditions may not be accepted by the 27 before negotiations begin. They might get it back with a 'try again' note attached.

May now saying she wants a Red, White and Blue Brexit. This beggars belief.

Yes but Labour are scared of being seen to obstruct the 'will of the people'. Plus much of Labour is anti-EU. The mood of the party is not to block a Brexit.

May is terrified of being outflanked by UKIP and is trying to keep the Torygraph, Mail, Express et al onside. Cameron left her a very poisoned chalice.

ohnonotgmail

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Labour have made it clear that they won't oppose Brexit. At best, a few amendments could be forced but it would go through both houses.

will labour impose their own whip or give their MPs a free vote? Time will tell i suppose.

demfad

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

she has to be aggressive or the whole thing will collapse.

There is no thing to collapse. The thing that might collapse is the illusion that there is a thing to collapse. She doesn't want to reveal to the press or hard Brexiters what her plan is. Her strategy seems to be that keep the cards close to her chest and things will get better. It wont.

ohnonotgmail

demfad wrote: »

There is no thing to collapse. The thing that might collapse is the illusion that there is a thing to collapse. She doesn't want to reveal to the press or hard Brexiters what her plan is. Her strategy seems to be that keep the cards close to her chest and things will get better. It wont.

We can be certain though that there is a plan. and it is the best plan. no wait, wrong country.

Professor Moriarty

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

will labour impose their own whip or give their MPs a free vote? Time will tell i suppose.

I think it would have to be a free vote. Many Labour MPs are in staunchly Leave constituencies.

FrancieBrady

demfad wrote: »

There is no thing to collapse. The thing that might collapse is the illusion that there is a thing to collapse. She doesn't want to reveal to the press or hard Brexiters what her plan is. Her strategy seems to be that keep the cards close to her chest and things will get better. It wont.

It's called 'floundering' in political parlance.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

I think you are not understanding just how badly Theresa May has allowed her ministers and hard Brexiters to sour the relationship.
For example it is completely a matter for the British Government to trigger article 50. How article 50 is triggerred is currently being decided in the British supreme court. Yet earlier she made public that she had asked Angela Merkel to 'sort out' the EU/British citizens negotiation before triggering article 50.
This is one of the 3 key areas of article 50 negotiation. It amounts to assembling the entire negotiating teams before article 50 was invoked. This is clearly impossible, May knows its impossible, everyone knows its impossible. The motive can only be to try and make the EU look bad by being dishonest. The hard Brexiters who until now displayed little more than contempt for expats in Europe or in the UK, now publicly accuse the EU of putting process before people.
The UK side are disgracing themselves and their country. Negotiatiosn allegedly start in 3 months. Time to grow up, rapid.

How did you arrive at that conclusion from what I posted?

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

How did you arrive at that conclusion from what I posted?

I based my conclusions on why exactly the relationship between the UK and EU has soured. This is at odds with what you posted rather than based on it.

A Little Pony

Theresa May calling the bluff of Labour it seems. Lets see if Labour really do believe in the will of the people.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

Theresa May calling the bluff of Labour it seems. Lets see if Labour really do believe in the will of the people.

What is staring everyone n the face is the need to find out if this is the will of the people.
Sometimes they have to be saved from themselves.

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Theresa May calling the bluff of Labour it seems. Lets see if Labour really do believe in the will of the people.

What is staring everyone n the face is the need to find out if this is the will of the people.
Sometimes they have to be saved from themselves.

Did you live in a cave during the month of June or something? They will be saved, saved from the EU which is falling apart.

catbear

There's actually a Leave voter case for a snap election as the current prime minister was on the remain side.

In many ways May is a dead duck so I'd imagine she'll be glad to relinquish the falling knife.

FrancieBrady

catbear wrote: »

There's actually a Leave voter case for a snap election as the current prime minister was on the remain side.

In many ways May is a dead duck so I'd imagine she'll be glad to relinquish the falling knife.

May won't go through with it IMO, without at least another election.

If she was serious about it the whole thing wouldn't be so shambolic.

Jimoslimos

demfad wrote: »

May now saying she wants a Red, White and Blue Brexit. This beggars belief.

Putin approves of this most glorious Brexit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Russia#/media/File:Flag_of_Russia.svg

Professor Moriarty

catbear wrote: »

There's actually a Leave voter case for a snap election as the current prime minister was on the remain side.

In many ways May is a dead duck so I'd imagine she'll be glad to relinquish the falling knife.

More of a lame duck. They say that politicians rise to the level of their incompetence, if so, then May shouldn't have been a minister let alone PM. She's completely out of her depth and trying to hold the Tory party together is like trying to herd cats.

Best case scenario is that she makes a dog's dinner of Brexit, destroys the Tory party in the process and disappears into the after-dinner entertainment circuit for drunk Little Englanders.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

More of a lame duck. They say that politicians rise to the level of their incompetence, if so, then May shouldn't have been a minister let alone PM. She's completely out of her depth and trying to hold the Tory party together is like trying to herd cats.

Best case scenario is that she makes a dog's dinner of Brexit, destroys the Tory party in the process and disappears into the after-dinner entertainment circuit for drunk Little Englanders.

Or, she was elected as a lame duck leader based on her record, while the rest of the party fight it out for control behind the scenes.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Or, she was elected as a lame duck leader based on her record, while the rest of the party fight it out for control behind the scenes.

Yup. There's a lot of tension waiting to boil over. Imagine if Labour had a Blair right now. May was the least worst option which said a lot about the other candidates. In many ways, she is a stalking horse that got elected by default. Hmmm, sounds familiar.

demfad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

More of a lame duck. They say that politicians rise to the level of their incompetence, if so, then May shouldn't have been a minister let alone PM. She's completely out of her depth and trying to hold the Tory party together is like trying to herd cats.

Best case scenario is that she makes a dog's dinner of Brexit, destroys the Tory party in the process and disappears into the after-dinner entertainment circuit for drunk Little Englanders.

Johnson is positioning himself. All his gaffes have the common effect of undermining May in some way. His comment a few days ago about not including students in the emigrant numbers was openly against her policy as Home secretary and as PM.
Out of the other side of his mouth he is spouting about strong nation states trading together which is for the 'strongman' audience of Trump (and Putin).

Jimoslimos

greendom wrote: »

Last Thursday's by-election could put the Tories off going for an election just now.

Twas always a Lib Dem stronghold, maybe just a case of reverting to the mean here. Also I think the electorate saw through Zac Goldsmith's self-aggrandising publicity stunt.

The more interesting by-election will be the Sleaford & North Hykeham, in one of the strongest Leave areas in the country. Tories need to win this one convincingly from (probably) UKIP.

Professor Moriarty

demfad wrote: »

Johnson is positioning himself. All his gaffes have the common effect of undermining May in some way. His comment a few days ago about not including students in the emigrant numbers was openly against her policy as Home secretary and as PM.
Out of the other side of his mouth he is spouting about strong nation states trading together which is for the 'strongman' audience of Trump (and Putin).

I dunno about Boris. He's flipflopped more than a dying mackerel on Brexit and is beginning to be seen for what he is; a shallow, populist clown. Apart from Thatcher, Britain really hasn't gone for a strongman/woman PM in recent times. And Boris ain't no Thatcher.

steddyeddy

demfad wrote: »

Johnson is positioning himself. All his gaffes have the common effect of undermining May in some way. His comment a few days ago about not including students in the emigrant numbers was openly against her policy as Home secretary and as PM.
Out of the other side of his mouth he is spouting about strong nation states trading together which is for the 'strongman' audience of Trump (and Putin).

As we've seen Boris is completely willing to screw his own country for political gain. He's a dangerous man.

greendom

Jimoslimos wrote: »

Twas always a Lib Dem stronghold, maybe just a case of reverting to the mean here. Also I think the electorate saw through Zac Goldsmith's self-aggrandising publicity stunt.

The more interesting by-election will be the Sleaford & North Hykeham, in one of the strongest Leave areas in the country. Tories need to win this one convincingly from (probably) UKIP.

yes that will be interesting - the overall picture could be that Tories lose seats to the lib-dems in remain areas and to UKIP in leave seats. Interesting times ahead

FrancieBrady

steddyeddy wrote: »

As we've seen Boris is completely willing to screw his own country for political gain. He's a dangerous man.

Boris, like Arlene Foster, never really believed that Brexit would happen and hopped on a bandwagon.

He has played it quite craftily so far, I would have thought his refusal to take the reins would have totally destroyed him but he could lead yet.

Arlene continues to flounder, and isn't really convincing anyone.

demfad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I dunno about Boris. He's flipflopped more than a dying mackerel on Brexit and is beginning to be seen for what he is; a shallow, populist clown. Apart from Thatcher, Britain really hasn't gone for a strongman/woman PM in recent times. And Boris ain't no Thatcher.

He just needs to convince the conservative party and position himself next in line to May. The nation state strongman talk is for the external audience in America and to a lesser extent in Russia.

catbear

Jimoslimos wrote: »

The more interesting by-election will be the Sleaford & North Hykeham, in one of the strongest Leave areas in the country. Tories need to win this one convincingly from (probably) UKIP.

Well in the FTTP system the majority Leave voter might get split between UKip and Tory but the LibDem might win on the 40% remain vote!