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Leinster vs Munster Match Day Thread, 08th Oct 2016, Aviva Stadium, SS1 & TG4
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07-10-2016 2:37pm#1
The Leinster Perspective
Leinsters selection is a very interesting one. Healy ahead of McGrath, Nagle ahead of Kearney, Murphy/Leavy ahead of VDF and 'Loughlin ahead of Kirchner. Add in Robbie Henshaws debut in blue and it's certainly a selection worth discussing. But where might it have the edge on Munster?
Munsters scrum this season, albeit against relatively poor opposition, has been a serious weapon. Leinsters selection in the tight 5 was always going to be key. Cian Healy is coming back into some form and Tadhg Furlong is making the step up to first choice TH with some really strong performances. Behind them Devin Toner is an obvious choice, but the selection of Ian Nagle ahead of Mick Kearney is an interesting one given the likely scrum battle. If Nagle can provide enough power behind Furlong this might be a more even contest than expected with Dave Kilcoyne selected at loose head for Munster. I'd still expect Munster to win the scrum battle, but maybe not as comprehensively as I first feared.
In the line-out Leinster have 5 genuine options in Toner, Nagle, Ruddock, Murphy and Heaslip. This is an area Leinster should be looking to exploit, not just on their own throw but on Munsters as well.
In the back row Leinster have gone with Ruddock, Heaslip and Murphy. This means there is no room for the 2 form flankers of Leavy and VDF. But the guys starting are no slouches either and Murphy in particular is in some very good form at the moment too. Heaslip tends to raise his game for this one too. Up against POM, TOD and Stander it will be a tough day. Munsters selection on paper is better. However POM is only just back from a long lay off and hasn't played any high intensity rugby in over 12 months. Plus Stander, good as he is, has yet to outplay Heaslip in this fixture (or its reverse). If POM struggles tomorrow then Leinster will be able to make hay.
So overall in the pack Leinster have the edge and should be looking to gain parity in the scrum and dominance in the line-out. Their tight 5 is better in open play too so if forwards win matches it would appear that Leinster have advantage here, but not by a whole lot.
In the backs things are also quite tight. Conor Murray is clearly a better scrum half than Luke McGrath and Sexton is a better out half than Bleyendaal. However Luke McGrath has impressed this season so for me Leinster shade the battle of the half backs. Bleyendaal looks a like a good, solid 10 but hasn't shown enough to make me think he's closer to Sexton than McGrath is to Murray. Has he played a game of this intensity before and how will he cope with our back row and the aggressive Leinster press?
In the centre Robbie Henshaw makes his first appearance in a Leinster shirt. This is great news generally, but it may see him struggle somewhat with the new set-up and team mates. For me all he really needs to do is use his size and his reputation to suck in a few defenders and create some space for Ringrose (or our wingers coming infield). The rest will come with time. If he can do this then I wouldn't worry about our midfield at all. Munsters are probably better overall, but will they get the level of service they need from Bleyendaal?
In the back 3 Leinster have gone with young Rory O'Loughlin over South African Zane Kirchner. O'Loughlin has looked good the last few months and had a very solid showing over in Cardiff. However he's inexperienced and has never played in a game like this himself before. Rob Kearney returns from injury and will hope to build on his form from the Glasgow game. If he can, then Leinsters back 3, rounded out with Isa Nacewa, is a strong unit itself. Munsters Darren Sweetnam will be very keen to show the same kind of form we've seen already this season, and he's exactly the kind of player that can cause Leinster trouble. However Ronan O'Mahony on the other wing isn't near that level. And while Zebo at FB can be a real threat he can also be negated if Leinster play smart. This battle could probably go either way depending on the form of the 2 FBs and how the young wingers cope with the pressures.
The bench is where Leinster have the greatest advantage. They are arguably better in every position off the bench than Munster are. Leinster will look to make that count in the last 20-30 minutes.
Add to all that the fact that Leinster have had the far tougher run in so far and are hence a lot more battle hardened plus they are at home and this should really be a home victory. However what's great to see is that there are only 5 out of the 46 players selected who are foreign players, both sides are on the up form wise and we might see a more competitive and exciting fixture than we've seen in recent years. There's a lot of talk that the bite needs to come back. Fingers crossed it does tomorrow. In a good way obviously!
Leinster by 5.|
01. Cian Healy|01. Dave Kilcoyne
02. Sean Cronin|02. Niall Scannell
03. Tadhg Furlong|03. John Ryan
04. Devin Toner|04. Donnacha Ryan
05. Ian Nagle|05. Billy Holland
06. Rhys Ruddock|06. Peter O'Mahony
07. Jordi Murphy|07. Tommy O'Donnell
08. Jamie Heaslip|08. CJ Stander
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09. Luke McGrath|09. Conor Murray
10. Jonathan Sexton|10. Tyler Bleyendaal
11. Isa Nacewa|11. Ronan O'Mahony
12. Robbie Henshaw|12. Rory Scannell
13. Garry Ringrose|13. Keith Earls
14. Rory O'Loughlin|14. Darren Sweetnam
15. Rob Kearney|15. Simon Zebo
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16. James Tracy|16. Duncan Casey
17. Jack McGrath|17. James Cronin
18. Mike Ross|18. Stephen Archer
19. Ross Molony|19. Robin Copeland
20. Dan Leavy|20. Jack O'Donoghue
21. Jamison Gibson-Park|21. Duncan Williams
22. Joey Carbery|22. Ian Keatley
23. Noel Reid|23. Jaco Taute20
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Good write up, one quibble to debate - I don't believe Leinster's advantage on the bench is as strong as you make out at all.
Is Tracy really better than Casey?
Is 36-year-old Mike Ross really better than Archer who has made massive gains (held his own against Jack McGrath in May for e.g.) and is very handy in the loose? I'll be delighted to see Ross come on.
McGrath is a better player than Cronin for sure, but I don't think the gap is a chasm
I don't rate Copeland but I don't know Molony so no comment there in terms of advantage
Leavy has started like a train this season but Jack has been called up to Irish camps, don't know is there much between them at all
I think there's a dropoff to both sub scrummies, JGP seems to have impressed in his few games so far. Duncan blows hot and cold.
Big test for Carbery, excited to see how he gets on in a 'major' fixture. I'd prefer him to Keats for sure.
I fancy Taute to run over Noel Reid if they come up against each other, in spite of Noel's new found defensive nous
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Deleted User wrote: »What I find odd is that Jack McGrath seems to be second choice. Here is a guy that at the start of the season most people were saying was odds on to be Lions starter.
Healy has been going very well the last few weeks but I can't help but wonder where exactly the pecking order is.
As for the bench off between the two teams, I think Leinster have a lot more experience and plenty of power to come on in the last 30 minutes and whilst I think we have enough in the starting 15 to be in control of the game at this stage, I think the bench will see us home with a bit of a margin.
Yeah, pointless playing second fiddle in Leinster when he could ply his trade in munster!
Its not fair having two world class loose-heads on the same team.0 -
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Maybe Healy 60 minutes, McGrath 20 tomorrow.
And McGrath 60+ minutes, Healy max 20 minutes in Europe next week?
If that's the case then McGrath's ahead of Healy in the order.
Question for All you Leinster boys and gals:
If you had to choose between losing tomorrow but winning next week, versus winning tomorrow and losing next week, which would it be?!
Winning next week hands down.
The Munster rivalry is intense, but our league run won't really suffer that much. Winning next week is critical for our European season, there is no comparison even though the darby itself is important.
That and we generally tend to win in Thomond these days too so we can pick up the lost points in the return fixture handy enough
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[Deleted User] wrote: »Winning next week hands down.
The Munster rivalry is intense, but our league run won't really suffer that much. Winning next week is critical for our European season, there is no comparison even though the darby itself is important.
That and we generally tend to win in Thomond these days too so we can pick up the lost points in the return fixture handy enough
I'd be fairly pleased if Munster got a LBP this week and next.
Although I still am not sure if I should be a bit more optimistic about tomorrow...it's as good a team as we've named for a while.
Was shocked to see POM named as starting. Really hope he goes well, and that it's not a step too far too early for him.
ROM v ROL should be an interesting watch too.0 -
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thomond2006 wrote: »I'm really looking forward to see Sweetnam cut through Leinster.
Yeah I effin said it!
I'm really looking forward to Isa lining him up a la Hassler a few weeks ago.
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