FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ninebeanrows

UKM GM 144hr is very cold!

Snow showers would drift into the east coast and accumulate.

Iancar29

Yeah UKMO is alot nicer than the GFS. UKMO detaches the cut off low to our west and sends it south in good pace, giving us a quicker and more sustained route to an easterly. The GFS however, doesn't really want to " cut off " the low and sits it on the West coast keeping the door closed for any easterly knocking.

Lets see what the ECM brings.

PukkaStukka

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yeah UKMO is alot nicer than the GFS. UKMO detaches the cut off low to our west and sends it south in good pace, giving us a quicker and more sustained route to an easterly. The GFS however, doesn't really want to " cut off " the low and sits it on the West coast keeping the door closed for any easterly knocking.

Lets see what the ECM brings.

IMO the GFS is quite poor TBH

nagdefy

Weathercheck wrote: »

UKM GM 144hr is very cold!

Snow showers would drift into the east coast and accumulate.

I'd trust the UKMO a lot more than the GFS going on experience

nacho libre

A cold start to March, should this verify, perhaps?

snowstorm445

ECM a bit of a disaster. Trust at least one model to throw a spanner in the works. Going by this winters trends the mildest model always tends to be correct.

Rebelbrowser

snowstorm445 wrote: »

ECM a bit of a disaster. Trust at least one model to throw a spanner in the works. Going by this winters trends the mildest model always tends to be correct.

You could lose the words "a bit of" from a coldies' point of view! Less Valentine's day blizzard than Valentine's day at the beach! Ukmo best model so far this winter so small hope remains......

ninebeanrows

UKM continues to signal cold easterly with snow showers for east by late Friday onwards

cherryghost

Related: What models do Met Eireann based their forecasts on? Their forecast for snow next weekends leads me to believe its UKMO

DOCARCH

cherryghost wrote: »

Related: What models do Met Eireann based their forecasts on?

ECM...pretty much solely.

BLIZZARD7

GFS 6z gives us a very cold and snowy weekend in the east, then a warm up in 850hpa temps resulting in freezing rain/normal rain. Feeling raw throughout though.



Then by day 10 we are completely locked into a freezing/snowy pattern with huge high pressure to our north and the PV in tatters. All FI at the moment but its very nice to see this type of pattern back on the charts again... its been a few years

KingdomRushed

Very interesting charts this morning from the GFS and UKMO, not so much the ECM.

Just had a look in on the panel view of the GFS ensembles and there is what I would say is universal support for cold continental air coming across the UK and into Ireland from Thursday/Friday onwards.

Lots of iterations on this theme amongst the ensembles, right out until the end, with some locking in even deeper cold after Day 10. 

I would say taken in the round, one of the most notable cold spells of this decade could be imminent. Whether it will bring significant snow remains to be seen, but the potential is there now, from Friday even!!

Significantly the chance of cold seems to be upgrading as we approach t0 rather than the model downgrades we usually experience

snowstorm445

GFS 12z is still fairly good but the High is slightly more south (although the easterly over us isnt really affected) and no retrogression occurs in FI so no prolonged cold (it is FI though so that shouldn't really concern us). Some cold uppers getting into the east coast by Saturday too.

UKMO is very good though, game on for blocking.

Supercell

Being a bit of a killjoy but the 12z doesn't really excite me, pressure around 1030 and around -5 850's really isn't the stuff snowmageddons are made of. I'd say cold days, feeling raw in eastern coasts with maybe some drizzle in places. If there is any snow Saturday looks most likely, the T111/4/7 charts looking the best of the bunch to my eye, well in FI though, here's to upgrades and surprises!

snowstorm445

Chrisht this weekends lookin fairly frigid if the ECM is anything to go by. :pac:

mickger844posts

Vague cross model agreement now for an Easterly to arrive later this week. ECM coming onboard now with the all important uppers -8 over the majority of the country Saturday. A decent chance for the East, South East to see some snow from streamers off Irish Sea.
Let's get the cold pool in place first and the rest will take care of itself.

snowstorm445

After a decent easterly the ECM roots for a southerly by middle of next week lol. FI of course but wouldn't it just be our luck.

nacho libre

Will we get a second bite of the cherry courtesy of a Greenland high, or will we end up with a high nearby us, that's the question the ECM poses tonight.

No real sign of a mobile westerly pattern anyway.

esposito

nacho libre wrote: »

Will we get a second bite of the cherry courtesy of a Greenland high, or will we end up with a high nearby us, that's the question the ECM poses tonight.

No real sign of a mobile westerly pattern anyway.

We certainly don't want a southerly it would be horrific!
Anyway thats out in FI, be very surprised if it verified tbh

nacho libre

esposito wrote: »

We certainly don't want a southerly it would be horrific!
Anyway thats out in FI, be very surprised if it verified tbh

It might be a case of short term pain before we go cold again, although some people would no doubt be pleased with a southerly.

It will be interesting to read M.T. Craniums forecast tomorrow morning.

Rebelbrowser

mickger844posts wrote: »

Vague cross model agreement now for an Easterly to arrive later this week. ECM coming onboard now with the all important uppers -8 over the majority of the country Saturday. A decent chance for the East, South East to see some snow from streamers off Irish Sea.
Let's get the cold pool in place first and the rest will take care of itself.

IMBY question so apologies in advance. Also not really related to current forecast as I appreciate any sort of decent easterly is long odds.

In any event, is it possible to get streamers / lake effect snow in Cork? It seems to me it should be possible if the wind is due east as to my east there's nothing but sea... I know Cork got snow in the 1987 and 1991 Easterlies but I am not sure if that was lake effect snow or just low pressure systems that brushed up against the south coast.

ninebeanrows

I have just taken a look at the 12z EC ensemble data and to my surprise- the Operational run is a notable mild outlier.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Very interesting Posts guys but please bear in mind Mod Note on opening post, Winter related chat should be kept to the Winter Weather 2016/2017 thread, thanks.

Iancar29

18z GFS has a better orientation of the scandi high. Feeding in a cold pool better.




Light wintry showers/streamers possible Friday for the east. Falling as snow in any heavy showers or on high ground

snaps

That's some High Pressure over Belarus in a weeks time!

snowstorm445

How disappointing, the GFS drops the regression and settles on the ECM solution of mild air out of North Africa, and the UKMO heading in that direction too. Looking more like a cold snap than a proper easterly. This is entering into the reliable now so getting more worrying.

snowstorm445

Still looking cold for this weekend though, possible snow showers on the east coast. Mild again by Monday though.

D9Male

Yeah, if anything the cold is a bit fiercer now from Friday night into Sunday morning. However the signals for precipitation are even weaker than before.

Doctor Shivering

D9Male wrote: »

Yeah, if anything the cold is a bit fiercer now from Friday night into Sunday morning. However the signals for precipitation are even weaker than before.

Ah no there will be precipitation in eastern counties
Going forward model watching,it's getting late but after next week watch Iceland

Rougies

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

Ah no there will be precipitation in eastern counties
Going forward model watching,it's getting late but after next week watch Iceland

Yeah this is poised for a blast from the arctic. I wish it would hurry up though, we're getting into late Feb at this stage.