FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ninebeanrows

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017012412/ECM1-168.GIF?24-0

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017012412/ECM1-168.GIF?24-0

What exactly does this show?

sryanbruen

Weathercheck wrote: »

Ermm, not quite!

I know :P:P. I realised after I posted that :o. Very embarrassing. Just forget I posted ok? :P.

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

What exactly does this show?

The Atlantic being refused entry:

An undercutting low, due to height rises to the north, the jet stream on a more southerly track, possible continental flow incoming.

We have been led up the garden path before by the ECW a lot this winter. Mind you the gfs in its outer reaches is quite interesting too. Also a UKMO meteorologist has said from what they are seeing Feburary could be interesting as it goes on due to strat events.

ninebeanrows

Another false alarm- back to the bunker

Meteorite58

Very active week next week for wind and rain, Weds night/ Thurs morning one to watch atm.

sryanbruen

The charts are continuing to show a very unsettled February.

Meteorite58

The models in some agreement of a possible vigorous storm , around Thurs 2nd . At present showing low pressure of between 955 -965 hPa with very close isobars and coming in very close to Ireland with strong SW'ly / W'ly winds. The charts below I think should be viewed as a guide at this stage as this could change somewhat, but the various models have been showing this for a few days now. After that the weekend showing the chance of some stormy weather also.

JCX BXC

So looks like a windy day for next Thursday.

Meteorite58

The Jet looking strong next week end, models showing fast moving Lp systems

Iancar29

:pac:

Meteorite58

Looking at the models for the weekend it would seem to me at the moment that the Lp systems seem to be keeping a more Southerly track along the lines of the Jet, with France and Southern England getting the strongest winds and S, SE and E of Ireland possibly seeing less strong winds ( if they materialize ).





The Jet looks to keep that Southerly track for a time going into Feb , colder weather ?

Meteorite58

The GFS showing Saturdays possible storm move further North on the latest run giving the Southern coasts the strongest winds. Long way off with lots of twists and turns no doubt over the coming days.



https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/825629113155215360

nagdefy

Looks like some places that aren't as accustomed to winter storms, like Iceland, the Faroes, Shetlands and Scotland, could get hit over the next 10 days. Places like southern England, France, Portugal, Spain and who knows the southern half of Ireland.

John.Icy

Interest picking up again for some winter weather. Warming is taking place, Chris Fawkes on Twitter has said we are on the threshold of a major warming event (no expert on warming events myself, but growing chatter about it around). Big block building to our East, FI on several models we see it starting to nudge NW but can't see any further bar the GFS. Northern Hemisphere profiles will be an interesting watch to see how the polar vortex behaves. GEFS starting to throw out some eye candy once more.

It may all come to nothing - but what's an Irish winter without getting back on the roller coaster for the 10th time.

In the meantime, plenty of interesting wind events to watch out for - will help pass the time along waiting around for development on mid-February potential.

nacho libre

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2017013006&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

yes, please:). If, a huge if, this chart , or something similar to it, verifies around that time, this place could get busy again.

nacho libre

nagdefy wrote: »

Looks like some places that aren't as accustomed to winter storms, like Iceland, the Faroes, Shetlands and Scotland, could get hit over the next 10 days. Places like southern England, France, Portugal, Spain and who knows the southern half of Ireland.

Good point. There is the potential for a nasty system to hit southern England next weekend. The winds in London don't need to be that strong to cause havoc, especially given the poor root foundations of trees in some spots. A year or two ago an Irishman was killed when a tree fell on his car up near Watford.

Iancar29

GFS showing some strong winds up the Irish Sea on Thursday. Could be a problem along the coast at high tide.





ECM and UKMO, similar though not as bad for the east coast.

Nabber

FI looking interesting again, with plenty of cherry picking

Meteorite58

What's this one going to do!

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/826010160510410752

nacho libre

Meteorite58 wrote: »

What's this one going to do!

That's the one the BBC weather were talking about earlier today. Usually those systems tends to track further south closer to the time, so France could get hammered.

BLIZZARD7

Is this winter finally going to deliver? Encouraging signs appearing on the models, background signals all solid too.

Hopefully not another garden path...

ninebeanrows

If things align correctly on Friday, there could be some fine sledging conditions on the Wicklow mountains by Saturday morning....

martinsvi

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Is this winter finally going to deliver? Encouraging signs appearing on the models, background signals all solid too.

Hopefully not another garden path...

what do you see in that picture? I see a col to our West and ourselves being in a ridge, chances for early morning fog, light winds, generally dry and stable air, sunny but cold

just wondering if I'm interpreting the charts differently than most of you here, I can't say I'm very experienced at this..

martinsvi

Weathercheck wrote: »

If things align correctly on Friday, there could be some fine sledging conditions on the Wicklow mountains by Saturday morning....

where are you getting this from?

BLIZZARD7

martinsvi wrote: »

what do you see in that picture? I see a col to our West and ourselves being in a ridge, chances for early morning fog, light winds, generally dry and stable air, sunny but cold

just wondering if I'm interpreting the charts differently than most of you here, I can't say I'm very experienced at this..

I'd agree with most of that, however the charts that followed showed lows sliding down accross/to the south of Ireland with numerous possibilities for snow events due to the entrenched cold air. All hypothetical at this stage anyway.

Blocking theme continuing on the 12z's, nothing certain at this stage at all but once again and not for the first time this winter there is a lot of potential in the charts and its in the mid-range, not just in the far reaches of FI.

Rebelbrowser

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I'd agree with most of that, however the charts that followed showed lows sliding down accross/to the south of Ireland with numerous possibilities for snow events due to the entrenched cold air. All hypothetical at this stage anyway.

Blocking theme continuing on the 12z's, nothing certain at this stage at all but once again and not for the first time this winter there is a lot of potential in the charts and its in the mid-range, not just in the far reaches of FI.

Theres a great day 10 ecm chart. You dont see that very often.........( btw thats a joke folks)

Nabber

Too much chat in here

Rebelbrowser

Cant post charts but the gem canadian model has -20 uppers in the se uk and proper cold here too by next weekend.