Off Topic Thread 3.0

awec

THink I'm going to rent that Sully movie, though I not sure how I feel about watching that while on a plane...

awec

awec wrote: »

THink I'm going to rent that Sully movie, though I not sure how I feel about watching that while on a plane...

You're co passengers may agree. Reminds me of this:

swiwi_

Kevski wrote: »

Fantastic show! How far into season 3 have you gotten?

4 episodes to date.

I just about didn't watch it, as I found the second series dragged. But it's much better without Martin IMO.

Also I discovered a little gem of an app called Infuse: so I download episodes to my ancient laptop, then put them onto the phone, stick on the beats headphones with bluetooth connection and watch away on the Infuse app without disturbing other half.

Happy days.

sydthebeat

awec wrote: »

Have a long flight tomorrow, the in flight entertainment looks pathetic, does anyone have any recommendations on Netflix? Movies or TV.

If you are into music, 'searching for sugarman' is an excellent entertaining documentary

Kevski

swiwi_ wrote: »

4 episodes to date.

I just about didn't watch it, as I found the second series dragged. But it's much better without Martin IMO.

Also I discovered a little gem of an app called Infuse: so I download episodes to my ancient laptop, then put them onto the phone, stick on the beats headphones with bluetooth connection and watch away on the Infuse app without disturbing other half.

Happy days.

I thought that I wasn't going to like it without Martin but was pleasantly surprised by season 3. Season 4 is filming at the moment and is due to air in January...it's the last one though

The Killing (Forbrydelsen) is also really good if you haven't seen it.

swiwi_

Kevski wrote: »

I thought that I wasn't going to like it without Martin but was pleasantly surprised by season 3. Season 4 is filming at the moment and is due to air in January...it's the last one though

The Killing (Forbrydelsen) is also really good if you haven't seen it.

Yeah, I've done that.

I'm hoping Spiral returns for another season.

Also next round of Fargo due out I think and season 2 of stranger things.

CatFromHue

One of the lads from the Solidarity party was on the Last Word home this evening, Mick Barry I think, saying that all our financial problems were caused by the greedy bankers and had nothing to do with our public spending.

We're all going to Heaven Lads, Wahey!

mfceiling

awec wrote: »

Have a long flight tomorrow, the in flight entertainment looks pathetic, does anyone have any recommendations on Netflix? Movies or TV.

New stand up from louis ck...haven't seen it but it's louis so safe to say it will be excellent.

pickarooney

swiwi_ wrote: »

Yeah, I've done that.

I'm hoping Spiral returns for another season.

Also next round of Fargo due out I think and season 2 of stranger things.

Spiral is filming season 6 now.

I think I'll try my hand at making the English subtitles for The Bridge if someone else doesn't get there first.

Buer

CatFromHue wrote: »

One of the lads from the Solidarity party was on the Last Word home this evening, Mick Barry I think, saying that all our financial problems were caused by the greedy bankers and had nothing to do with our public spending.

We're all going to Heaven Lads, Wahey!

I heard him. Not an impressive speaker but an insight into the mindset of those who are seeking pay restoration. His only real response when put to him that it was unsustainable spending on public salaries that contributed to the crash his mantra was "I disagree". He seemed happy to put all the blame squarely on the banks and developers.

In 2008 we were guilty of sleepwalking into a financial crisis. Now we're not sleepwalking into anything. We are consciously and knowingly strolling into it. Tax intakes are only now starting to reach 2007 levels again. This is the rationale for pay restoration. Aside from the fact that the pay levels were completely bloated and unrealistic, there are approximately an additional 500k people now in this country. With the same tax intake, the available funds are significantly tighter yet the unions want a return to their previous salaries.

It boggles the mind that the average public sector salary is €47k a year.

irishbucsfan

CatFromHue wrote: »

One of the lads from the Solidarity party was on the Last Word home this evening, Mick Barry I think, saying that all our financial problems were caused by the greedy bankers and had nothing to do with our public spending.

We're all going to Heaven Lads, Wahey!

I doubt I would actually agree with someone from the Solidarity Party, but very few of our problems in Ireland were caused by public spending.

CMOTDibbler

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I doubt I would actually agree with someone from the Solidarity Party, but very few of our problems in Ireland were caused by public spending.

It's a bit chicken and egg, but the prevailing opinion in government at the time was that the good times would keep rolling and it was easier to meet pay demands than get into protracted disputes. Mary Harney's "country is awash with money" quote is instructive in that regard.

Couple that with 'light touch' regulation, a government that was wedded to the property boom and saw no reason to try and dampen demand and you have the perfect storm.

So when the super bonus of property related government income dried up, there was nothing in the pot to pay the inflated public service wage bill.

Buer

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I doubt I would actually agree with someone from the Solidarity Party, but very few of our problems in Ireland were caused by public spending.

Certainly not caused by it but definitely contributed to the spiral once the crash occurred. The salary levels were unsustainable and should never have been allowed reach that point. They were in a bubble the same way house prices were. And now there's a housing bubble developing again, the same groups are calling for their salaries to increase again. The salaries are still nowhere near being in line with European counterparts.

There are some significant groups in this country that do not give a care about the country or the economy but simply want to get what they can, while they can and everyone else be damned.

irishbucsfan

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

It's a bit chicken and egg, but the prevailing opinion in government at the time was that the good times would keep rolling and it was easier to meet pay demands than get into protracted disputes. Mary Harney's "country is awash with money" quote is instructive in that regard.

Couple that with 'light touch' regulation, a government that was wedded to the property boom and saw no reason to try and dampen demand and you have the perfect storm.

So when the super bonus of property related government income dried up, there was nothing in the pot to pay the inflated public service wage bill.

Public spending increases roughly matched increases in our GDP. There was nothing abnormal about it that I can see. The public spending "orgy" was a very convenient scapegoat however when trying to drum up political support for Trichet's failed, flawed, policies, given our only option was to cut massively as the EU were astonishingly unwilling to do anything else until Trichet was replaced by Draghi. The severity of those cuts directly led to a more painful and protracted recession unfortunately, and it was all for nothing once Draghi corrected the previous errors made by Trichet.

The problem was awful fiscal policies that allowed the private sector, specifically financial, to get out of control. Whether or not that's happening again now is an interesting question, I don't think nearly enough was done to prevent it reoccurring in some countries and Ecofin never seemed interested in doing much on a continental level.

Erik Shin

Thanks for the last few posts lads, read them last night and put me right to sleep...Better than a glass​ of warm milk

CMOTDibbler

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Public spending increases roughly matched increases in our GDP. There was nothing abnormal about it that I can see. The public spending "orgy" was a very convenient scapegoat however when trying to drum up political support for Trichet's failed, flawed, policies, given our only option was to cut massively as the EU were astonishingly unwilling to do anything else until Trichet was replaced by Draghi. The severity of those cuts directly led to a more painful and protracted recession unfortunately, and it was all for nothing once Draghi corrected the previous errors made by Trichet.

The problem was awful fiscal policies that allowed the private sector, specifically financial, to get out of control. Whether or not that's happening again now is an interesting question, I don't think nearly enough was done to prevent it reoccurring in some countries and Ecofin never seemed interested in doing much on a continental level.

But wasn't GDP over-inflated by property price increases? Unsustainable as it turned out.

Whatever about Trichet's errors, the horse had long bolted by that stage. The economy was built on quicksand that collapsed under its own weight.

CMOTDibbler

Erik Shin wrote: »

Thanks for the last few posts lads, read them last night and put me right to sleep...Better than a glass​ of warm milk

Erik Shin

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I'm keeping the ones about the solidarity party for tonight!

CatFromHue

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I doubt I would actually agree with someone from the Solidarity Party, but very few of our problems in Ireland were caused by public spending.

you're not allowed into Heaven now

all we've been doing the last few years is to try and bring our public spending in line to what we actually bring in. We had massive deficits from 09 on, we weren't far off bringing in only half of what we spend, without even mentioning the banks.

swiwi_

Buer wrote: »

It boggles the mind that the average public sector salary is €47k a year.

IMO, the single biggest problem in Ireland is that the tax burden falls squarely on the employed middle class. The less fortunate don't pay tax, the wealthy find ways not to pay tax, but the stupidest thing is the way self-employed people get to file tax returns. It's all open to rampant tax evasion/fraud, with the only major control seeming to be publishing an "embarassment" list once or twice per year of 0.0001% of the tax evaders who are caught. Hopeless system.

My base salary in Ireland was very good, but I waved goodbye to about 50% with each pay. In Switzerland my tax burden is considerably less, each Swiss citizen has a compulsory tax return to file, while non-Swiss citizens pay tax at source.

Rent was about 40% of my take-home pay in Dublin, here it's about 20%, despite similar rental prices.

I don't see it ever changing in Ireland, the culture of avoiding pay your tax dues is engrained in Irish society, the easiest to control are employed workers as you can tax at source, but anything that is own business, self-employed etc is a mine-field with the current set-up.

irishbucsfan

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

But wasn't GDP over-inflated by property price increases? Unsustainable as it turned out.

Whatever about Trichet's errors, the horse had long bolted by that stage. The economy was built on quicksand that collapsed under its own weight.

Our GDP was over-inflated by the lack of control of the European banking sector.

Cuts to public spending did absolutely nothing to stop that. All it did was slash our GDP as there was misguided advice being given about an imaginary threshold of debt to GDP due to prevailing wisdom based on a misformated excel spreadsheet (that is, believe it or not, a true story).

The actions we took were necessary only because the EU outright refused to take responsibility for "our" problem and indirectly enforced a soon-to-fail economic regime. The ECB then did a complete u-turn in 2012 and introduced OMTs to backstop the bond market (remember before that everyone was watching bond rates like hawks, then suddenly that problem went away) and LTROs to ease liquidity (an operation which must be in the trillions now).

molloyjh

Buer wrote: »

Certainly not caused by it but definitely contributed to the spiral once the crash occurred. The salary levels were unsustainable and should never have been allowed reach that point. They were in a bubble the same way house prices were. And now there's a housing bubble developing again, the same groups are calling for their salaries to increase again. The salaries are still nowhere near being in line with European counterparts.

There are some significant groups in this country that do not give a care about the country or the economy but simply want to get what they can, while they can and everyone else be damned.

This. Although within the issue of public spending lies another issue around how lobsided the salaries of some of the more senior people are. Basic entry salaries aren't all that great, but having worked in a semi state and seen some of the salaries that management levels can be on there is a massive disparity there. I knew a guy in where I was who was paid over 200k, not because he did a job that was worth it (he didn't) but because he was head of a department and that's what the others at that level got. Despite the fact that he was head of a far smaller department with a far smaller remit. Ah but you couldn't give him the title without the money. I have real sympathy for those on the lower scales.

irishbucsfan

CatFromHue wrote: »

you're not allowed into Heaven now

all we've been doing the last few years is to try and bring our public spending in line to what we actually bring in. We had massive deficits from 09 on, we weren't far off bringing in only half of what we spend, without even mentioning the banks.

Our public spending is, and has been, the lowest of anyone in Europe for quite a while. I believe we are, or were, the only country in Europe (maybe even of every developed economy) whose public expenditure is less than 30% of GDP.

I won't embed this image at the risk of dropping Erik Shin into a coma, but this is our spending v GDP according to an OECD report from 2015

Buer

swiwi_ wrote: »

I don't see it ever changing in Ireland, the culture of avoiding pay your tax dues is engrained in Irish society, the easiest to control are employed workers as you can tax at source, but anything that is own business, self-employed etc is a mine-field with the current set-up.

There's certainly an element of that. There's a mindset where it's almost applauded to be able to cheat the system and be a "cute hoor".

It's a historical thing. We even elect some officials on the basis of their ability to manipulate the system whether it's ethical or not. Guys like Ahern, MHR or Lowry are the most popular politicians of the last 20 years and are as backwards and corrupt as they come. Yet they're revered and celebrated.

It's a very unique mindset. We love to pull the wool over the eyes of the big fish. Any time you see an online poll, there's almost always an effort to rig it such that we promote the local option such as Peter Canavan polling highest for BBC Sports Personality. And we revel in it, slap each other on the back and say "Sure, aren't we hilarious?"

It's endemic in our society to try and manipulate whatever we can for our benefit regardless of it having a wider negative impact. The penalty points/whistleblower situation is another. I've no idea why a whistleblower scenario was needed. The entire country was completely aware that the Gardaí were regularly having points wiped off records left, right and centre for people they knew.

irishbucsfan

molloyjh wrote: »

This. Although within the issue of public spending lies another issue around how lobsided the salaries of some of the more senior people are. Basic entry salaries aren't all that great, but having worked in a semi state and seen some of the salaries that management levels can be on there is a massive disparity there. I knew a guy in where I was who was paid over 200k, not because he did a job that was worth it (he didn't) but because he was head of a department and that's what the others at that level got. Despite the fact that he was head of a far smaller department with a far smaller remit. Ah but you couldn't give him the title without the money. I have real sympathy for those on the lower scales.

There's definitely strucural problems in our public sector. But I'd doubt this poor chap from the Solidarity Party would be arguing in favour of that.

I'm not sure how you even begin to fix that problem. Would probably take a government with a lot of courage and no real desire to remain in power beyond a single term. We'll be waiting a long time for one of those I reckon.

molloyjh

swiwi_ wrote: »

IMO, the single biggest problem in Ireland is that the tax burden falls squarely on the employed middle class. The less fortunate don't pay tax, the wealthy find ways not to pay tax, but the stupidest thing is the way self-employed people get to file tax returns. It's all open to rampant tax evasion/fraud, with the only major control seeming to be publishing an "embarassment" list once or twice per year of 0.0001% of the tax evaders who are caught. Hopeless system.

My base salary in Ireland was very good, but I waved goodbye to about 50% with each pay. In Switzerland my tax burden is considerably less, each Swiss citizen has a compulsory tax return to file, while non-Swiss citizens pay tax at source.

Rent was about 40% of my take-home pay in Dublin, here it's about 20%, despite similar rental prices.

I don't see it ever changing in Ireland, the culture of avoiding pay your tax dues is engrained in Irish society, the easiest to control are employed workers as you can tax at source, but anything that is own business, self-employed etc is a mine-field with the current set-up.

There's a raft of different issues, although yourself and Buer have hit the nail on the head re the attitude of "get what you can and away with what you can". Add to that the need to point the finger anywhere and everywhere else but ourselves and you have a large part of Irish culture. Sure wasn't it the politicians fault, nevermind that we elected them. And did so when being warned by economic experts about the path that we were on. And while Bertie was being investigated for financial irregularities. And sure wasn't it all the banks fault shoving all that credit on us when we never even wanted it in the first place. How dare they hand out 100% mortgages we said after the crash, while before it many were saying how dare some banks not hand out 100% mortgages.

Sure there were issues around regulation and public spending, but the root of the issues were the publics inability or refusal to look beyond the short term gain. It's not like we didn't have people warning us about the path that we were on. We could have chosen to make other things governmental policy had we really wanted to. We could have chosen to demand more regulation and fiscal prudence. Instead we wanted more tax cuts, more money in our pockets, cheaper credit etc.

molloyjh

irishbucsfan wrote: »

There's definitely strucural problems in our public sector. But I'd doubt this poor chap from the Solidarity Party would be arguing in favour of that.

I'm not sure how you even begin to fix that problem. Would probably take a government with a lot of courage and no real desire to remain in power beyond a single term. We'll be waiting a long time for one of those I reckon.

The real solution to the problem, as you said, is a complete review of the structures in the public sector as well as the behaviours and mindsets within it. If the electorate were capable of taking a longer term view then it might be something a political party could try and get behind (although the power in the public sector is such that I can't see that ever happening regardless of the electorate). But when the electorate are almost guaranteed to give you the boot if you don't give them immediate tax breaks and fix a few pot holes then why would any politician bother doing anything else?

Buer

molloyjh wrote: »

The real solution to the problem, as you said, is a complete review of the structures in the public sector as well as the behaviours and mindsets within it.

Well, it's also turkeys voting for Christmas given the politicians themselves are highly paid public sector employees.

They're the very epitome of the mentality of the nation. Our current leader became a TD at 24 with no qualification aside from his father having been a TD and dying in office. They've no appetite to deal with the status quo.

CMOTDibbler

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Our GDP was over-inflated by the lack of control of the European banking sector.

Cuts to public spending did absolutely nothing to stop that. All it did was slash our GDP as there was misguided advice being given about an imaginary threshold of debt to GDP due to prevailing wisdom based on a misformated excel spreadsheet (that is, believe it or not, a true story).

You're still talking about the post-crash fallout. I'm talking about the years that led up to this.

Between 2003 and 2009 government expenditure doubled. From just over €40 billion to just over €80 billion. Those spending increases were based on the mistaken belief that economic growth, based largely on property development was sustainable. It wasn't. When the property bubble burst, government receipts from stamp duty, VAT, corporation tax, income tax and other related taxes took a complete nosedive. Couple that with massive increases in unemplyment and the obvious related increase in government spending and the gap between income and expenditure collapsed.

Over 20% of the national income came from the building sector. That was wiped out in an instant.

irishbucsfan

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

You're still talking about the post-crash fallout. I'm talking about the years that led up to this.

Between 2003 and 2009 government expenditure doubled. From just over €40 billion to just over €80 billion. Those spending increases were based on the mistaken belief that economic growth, based largely on property development was sustainable. It wasn't. When the property bubble burst, government receipts from stamp duty, VAT, corporation tax, income tax and other related taxes took a complete nosedive. Couple that with massive increases in unemplyment and the obvious related increase in government spending and the gap between income and expenditure collapsed.

Over 20% of the national income came from the building sector. That was wiped out in an instant.

Well I'm not actually talking about post-crash fallout at all actually. Pre-crash GDP was what I was referring to in the first part of my post.

None of that actually changes my point, which is that public spending was not the problem and the cuts were completely avoidable if the ECB had remembered it was a central bank in 2008 rather than 2012. Public spending only became a problem when our GDP was threatened by the downturn, before then it was within perfectly normal levels of GDP and would have remained there.