Pro 12 semi final - Leinster v Ulster 20/05/2016, 19:45. Live on Sky, TG4, BBCNI

former total

In the seventh season of pro12 playoffs, Leinster are preparing for their sixth home semi-final. On each previous occasion, they've advanced to the final. Indeed, no team has ever lost a home semi-final.

Good omens indeed.

Not so good was their 30-6 defeat in Ravenhill a couple of weeks ago, preceded by patchy performances against Munster and Connacht.

Ulster on the other hand are on more of an upward curve. After some pretty rubbish performances in February and March, they look to have turned a corner, culminating in a thumping of the Ospreys at the Liberty two weeks ago.

So how is this going to pan out? The bookies make Leinster narrow favourites but home advantage means that was always going to be the case.

Ulster look to be the more settled and cohesive team. Henderson is back and Henry is rediscovering some form so they have a harder edge up front. Behind the scrum, Pienaar is back on song and the backs are reaping the rewards. Leinster look like a team struggling to find their rhythm. Injuries and international absences have caused significant disruption but those excuses won't hold water much longer.

No surprises in either selection, each side is missing big players but the Ulster XV definitely has a more familiar look to it. That might prove decisive, but the Leinster bench looks more capable of having an impact.

I don't buy into the notion that this will be the Leinster forwards vs the Ulster backs, each side has quality throughout. Weather forecast is OK so should be a good evening for rugby.

Very hard to call but Leinster were the only side in the league with a 100% home record this season and they might just maintain that.

Final appearances at the RDS for Ian Madigan and Ben Te'o.

Ian Davies, last seen brandishing a red card in Galway, is the ref.

LEINSTER RUGBY XV:
15. Isa Nacewa CAPTAIN
14. Dave Kearney
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Ben Te'o
11. Luke Fitzgerald
10. Johnny Sexton
9. Eoin Reddan
1. Jack McGrath
2. Richardt Strauss
3. Mike Ross
4. Devin Toner
5. Mick Kearney
6. Rhys Ruddock
7. Jordi Murphy
8. Jamie Heaslip
REPLACEMENTS
16. Sean Cronin
17. Peter Dooley
18. Tadhg Furlong
19. Ross Molony
20. Jack Conan
21. Luke McGrath
22. Ian Madigan
23. Zane Kirchner

ULSTER RUGBY XV:
15. Jared Payne
14. Andrew Trimble
13. Luke Marshall
12. Stuart McCloskey
11. Craig Gilroy
10. Paddy Jackson
9. Ruan Pienaar
1. Callum Black
2. Rory Best CAPTAIN
3. Ricky Lutton
4. Pete Browne
5. Franco Van Der Merwe
6. Iain Henderson
7. Chris Henry
8. Sean Reidy
REPLACEMENTS
16. Rob Herring
17. Kyle McCall
18. Andy Warwick
19. Robbie Diack
20. Roger Wilson
21. Paul Marshall
22. Stuart Olding
23. Darren Cave

mfceiling

Weather doesn't look good. Could be a misery fest of smashing into each other with little skills on offer.

pickarooney

mfceiling wrote: »

Weather doesn't look good. Could be a misery fest of smashing into each other with little skills on offer.

We don't really need bad weather for that in fairness

bilston

I don't think there is much between the benches. Herring, Marshall and particularly Olding can all be game changers and while Wilson is at pensionable age now he can still give 20-25 top quality minutes. I'd also argue that the two bench props are better than the two starting.

In saying that Cronin and Furlong could be huge for Leinster as could Madigan.

It should be a really tight match. There isn't a lot between the sides at all. The back rows are really interesting. For the first time in as long as I cam remember I don't feel like Leinster have a big edge (if any) here. However the tight 5 remains Leinster's friend and if the conditions are crappy that could yet be decisive.

rsh118

I think we all have our fingers crossed for a 9-6 one-up runners bosh fest. I know I do. Bosh, bosh, bosh!

Podge_irl

bilston wrote: »

I don't think there is much between the benches. Herring, Marshall and particularly Olding can all be game changers and while Wilson is at pensionable age now he can still give 20-25 top quality minutes. I'd also argue that the two bench props are better than the two starting.

Herring and Marshall can be gamechangers but I would say so can Cronin and McGrath and Cronin, at least, is simply better (and I would say McGrath is clearly a better scrum half than Marshall too though it's less clear cut). Leinster bench looks better from 16-21 and not by a small amount to my mind.

Of course Ulster have about 76 outside backs that would help the Leinster squad.

former total

Stephen Ferris

Weather forecast has deteriorated; now talk of persistent rain this evening. Balls anyway.

bilston

Podge_irl wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

I don't think there is much between the benches. Herring, Marshall and particularly Olding can all be game changers and while Wilson is at pensionable age now he can still give 20-25 top quality minutes. I'd also argue that the two bench props are better than the two starting.

Herring and Marshall can be gamechangers but I would say so can Cronin and McGrath and Cronin, at least, is simply better (and I would say McGrath is clearly a better scrum half than Marshall too though it's less clear cut). Leinster bench looks better from 16-21 and not by a small amount to my mind.

Of course Ulster have about 76 outside backs that would help the Leinster squad.

I wouldn't say Dooley and Molony aee ahead of McCall and Diack, McGrath is a better 9 than Marshall but Marshall is gamechanging impact sub (potentially for Leinster as well). Of course Madigan came off the bench two years ago in the semi and won the match for Leinster so we know what he can do. I don't think there is much in it.

Shame about FT's weather forecast though!

dub_skav

dub_skav wrote: »

I'm owed at least one end of season sunglasses game in the RDS dammit

former total wrote: »

Weather forecast has deteriorated; now talk of persistent rain this evening. Balls anyway.

thomond2006

Potato farl or whiskey brownie?

MJohnston

Stephen Ferris

former total wrote: »

Weather forecast has deteriorated; now talk of persistent rain this evening. Balls anyway.

Quite windy too. Miserable (or perfect, depending on your outlook) conditions for rugby really.

Journeyman_1

thomond2006 wrote: »

Potato farl or whiskey brownie?

Clearly only one choice there!

Podge_irl

bilston wrote: »

I wouldn't say Dooley and Molony aee ahead of McCall and Diack, McGrath is a better 9 than Marshall but Marshall is gamechanging impact sub (potentially for Leinster as well). Of course Madigan came off the bench two years ago in the semi and won the match for Leinster so we know what he can do. I don't think there is much in it.

Shame about FT's weather forecast though!

I don't really rate Diack as a second row cause he's soft as a melting marshmallow. Don't know enough about either prop.

I should clarify, while I'm happy enough saying Leinster's bench is (a good bit) stronger, I don't think it will make much difference because Ulster can actually score tries and we can't.

ionadnapokot

Think it's only the 2nd time Nacewa started at FB this season.
Weather might limit the amount of link up and offloads I was hoping to see from him.

Wheeker

Leinster certainly have a hoodoo over Ulster- they have ensured Ulster's season has ended without a trophy in 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2014!:( That's a whole lotta hurt- surely that has to come to an end eventually? I'm hoping tonight is the night Ulster can finally find the mental strength to overcome the hoodoo!

I was at Ravenspan for the game 3 weeks ago & whilst I thought Ulster totally outplayed Leinster, it was still only 13-6 with just over 20 mins to go. The final scoreline definitely flattered Ulster. I also find it slightly weird all this talk of Leinster not being in-form when they finished top of the league & are unbeaten at home all season. Ok, I get that they're not playing the typical "Champagne Rugby" their fans are used to.. but still....

So whilst I'm probably the most hopeful I've ever been for Ulster going into a play-off match against Leinster I am a still very, very cautious!

Bazzo

Journeyman_1 wrote: »

Clearly only one choice there!

Potato whiskey?

former total

Stephen Ferris

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Think it's only the 2nd time Nacewa started at FB this season.
Weather might limit the amount of link up and offloads I was hoping to see from him.

Nah he started a good few at FB when Kearney and Kirchner were at the World Cup.

Zzippy

rsh118 wrote: »

I think we all have our fingers crossed for a 9-6 one-up runners bosh fest. I know I do. Bosh, bosh, bosh!

Is that you, Leo?

bilston

Weather update please Dubliners?

Adbrowne

bilston wrote: »

Weather update please Dubliners?

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

mfceiling

bilston wrote: »

Weather update please Dubliners?

Looking out the window and it's cloudy with a risk of leaving early...

MJohnston

Stephen Ferris

Adbrowne wrote: »

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Currently dry and quite windy, heavy rain due to start within the hour I'd say.

former total

Stephen Ferris

Poll added. Shocking omission from the OP.

MJohnston

Stephen Ferris

former total wrote: »

Poll added. Shocking omission from the OP.

So the poll choices are essentially "Who will win - Leinster, or Leinster?"

:P

ionadnapokot

former total wrote: »

Nah he started a good few at FB when Kearney and Kirchner were at the World Cup.

Yar.....
I have no recollection of WC time. Ptsd related

former total

Stephen Ferris

Jaysus if the atmosphere is anything like this match...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVRV71bG3A

What an occasion

awec

former total wrote: »

Jaysus if the atmosphere is anything like this match...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVRV71bG3A

What an occasion

Thankfully no Lacey this time to screw Ulster over.

How are Leinster going to cope with a man less?

former total

Stephen Ferris

awec wrote: »

Thankfully no Lacey this time to screw Ulster over.

How are Leinster going to cope with a man less?

And if Robbie Diack has learned how to fall onto the ground when in possession in the in-goal area, Leinster are totally f**ked.

Still cannot believe he managed not to score that.

dub_skav

awec wrote: »

Thankfully no Lacey this time to screw Ulster over.

How are Leinster going to cope with a man less?

Phew, people were saying that this match was different and Ulster and Leinster were in different places than previous encounters. But, awec still whinging about Lacey, business as usual

ionadnapokot

Pj kicking from the T?

MJohnston

Stephen Ferris

Rains started in Dublin. Slippy game on the way.

bilston

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Pj kicking from the T?

Yep

ionadnapokot

bilston wrote: »

Yep

Kicking well of late?

former total

Stephen Ferris

former total wrote: »

Jaysus if the atmosphere is anything like this match...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVRV71bG3A

What an occasion

Jaysus that attempted finish by Diack is still horrendous to watch

awec

dub_skav wrote: »

Phew, people were saying that this match was different and Ulster and Leinster were in different places than previous encounters. But, awec still whinging about Lacey, business as usual

We never forget. :cool:

Teferi

awec wrote: »

We never forget. :cool:

The North remembers.

thomond2006

Who is Leinster's Lord Commander?

Buer

thomond2006 wrote:

Who is Leinster's Lord Commander?

MOC.

bilston

ionadnapokot wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Yep

Kicking well of late?

Yeah. 39 points in his last 2 games (2 tries as well mind).

bilston

Stephen Ferris

bilston wrote: »

Yeah. 39 points in his last 2 games (2 tries as well mind).

Yeah but he did poorly once against England years ago

awec

Teferi wrote: »

The North remembers.

I don't know if Les Kiss is Jon Snow or Ramsey Bolton.

ionadnapokot

bilston wrote: »

Yeah. 39 points in his last 2 games (2 tries as well mind).

I see he is third with 77%
http://www.pro12rugby.com/statzone/rhino_golden_boot.php#6GvHeAVlQfQsMvJu.97

irishbucsfan

awec wrote: »

I don't know if Les Kiss is Jon Snow or Ramsey Bolton.

He is Mance Rayder

Scythica

Does that mean Connacht is under Euron?

If so, cmon connacht!

wp_rathead

Scythica wrote: »

Does that mean Connacht is under Euron?

If so, cmon connacht!

Pat Lam is The Storm

thomond2006

Wee Paddy

ionadnapokot

This is Ulsters year. Think they'll punch holes in midfield and could score 2 try's.

Rightwing

I was siding with Ulster initially, but the wet weather will certainly favour Leinster.

ionadnapokot

Rightwing wrote: »

I was siding with Ulster initially, but the wet weather will certainly favour Leinster.

As In - the pack?

former total

Stephen Ferris

It's a bit damp but it's not lashing. Be grand.

Rightwing

ionadnapokot wrote: »

As In - the pack?

If Leinster can stop Ulster's wide game, they will win. The weather will help avoid a repeat of the humiliation a few weeks ago, and in a tight game I have my doubts about Ulster. If Connacht somehow beat Glasgow, the league winner will be from this side.