Summer Weather 2016

sryanbruen

This weather really has given me the Summer vibes. It is very warm and sunny today that it just feels unseasonably warm here. I am still sticking to my same predictions from earlier this year that I set!

June: Dry and warm BUT the potential of thundery downpours at times.
July: Dry, sunny and warm. Driest July in 27 years.
August: Rather wet but sunny and warm again.

So overall according to these predictions, it will be a dry, sunny and very warm Summer.

In depth of warmth, I'd say:

June: +1.0 - +1.5c above normal
July: +2.0 - +2.5c above normal
August: +0.5 - +1.0c above normal

Summer overall would be: +1.0 - +1.5c above normal which would make it nearly as identical as Summer 2013 but not nearly as hot as 1995.

MT... what's your monthly predictions for the individual Summer months?

sryanbruen

AccuWeather say we will have a washout Summer.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

AccuWeather say we will have a washout Summer.

Accuweather can't even get the weather right at the current moment! Lately my location has apparently been having thunderstorms alot. Haven't seen one yet:D

Clonmel1000

sryanbruen wrote: »

AccuWeather say we will have a washout Summer.

In other news the Popes Catholic and the earths round🙄

Gonzo

Ive a feeling it will be an average summer, rain/showers most days, a few dry weeks with temps hitting 23C on a few days, maybe a few 25's in the west. Mostly 16-19C throughout.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

Ive a feeling it will be an average summer, rain/showers most days, a few dry weeks with temps hitting 23C on a few days, maybe a few 25's in the west. Mostly 16-19C throughout.

So you're saying Summer 2015 all over again?

sryanbruen

According to this chart of my station, Grange's mean temperatures for each of its recorded summers, we are overdue another cool Summer because there have been too many warmer than normal summers - certainly does not feel that way!

ben.schlomo

I see IWO released their summer prediction this morning, an average of 0.5-1 degree higher with higher than average rainfall in the south and lower than average in the north. Spells of warm dry weather due to south easterly flows but these will be broken by spells of heavy rain from the southwest. Think I've gotten that right, this on their FB anyway.

Mars Bar

ben.schlomo wrote: »

I see IWO released their summer prediction this morning, an average of 0.5-1 degree higher with higher than average rainfall in the south and lower than average in the north. Spells of warm dry weather due to south easterly flows but these will be broken by spells of heavy rain from the southwest. Think I've gotten that right, this on their FB anyway.

That's M.T Cranium too.

DOCARCH

Worth re-posting here. Here is MT's summer outlook:

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Summer 2016 Outlook -- A rather warm summer is predicted, with rainfall likely to be above normal values in the south, trending to below normal in Ulster. There will be occasional spells of very warm or hot weather when southeast winds develop around high pressure to the northeast. There will also be spells of near normal temperatures and frequent showers in southwest to west winds when lower pressure develops to northwest. These spells are expected to be roughly equal in frequency so that the summer will have alternating spells of warm/dry and cooler (although not very cool)/moist conditions. The heavier rain may develop when warm, dry spells break down to be replaced by cooler Atlantic intervals. Some severe thunderstorms are to be expected in that scenario and the inland south to southwest may be the most likely location. Overall, temperatures are expected to run about 0.5 to 1.0 degrees above normal from June to August with no large variation from that expected month to month. Rainfall may vary from 30% above normal in parts of the south to 10% below normal in the north. This reflects a trend expected in Britain where Scotland may have a very dry summer with 30 to 50 per cent below average rainfalls; the south of England will also be wet and northern France very wet (locally up to twice normal rainfalls). The same general temperature forecast applies in Britain, generally warm but more so relative to normal in Scotland. Final note, while the temperature forecast for Ireland (and Britain) is conservative, there is some chance of a warmer outcome still, taking the summer into the warmest 10% (at the more conservative levels I have mentioned, it would be warmer than 75% of recent summers). Expect the warmest weather in July and the first week of August.

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

So you're saying Summer 2015 all over again?

bit similar but slightly warmer, last summer was particularly cold in the western half of the country from what I can remember. We didn't fair to badly in the east tho.

spoonerhead

Who on earth is James Madden and why is he saying there's a heatwave with record breaking temperatures next week? It's on the Sun website and even Joe.ie

pad199207

spoonerhead wrote: »

Who on earth is James Madden and why is he saying there's a heatwave with record breaking temperatures next week? It's on the Sun website and even Joe.ie

oh hes nobody important

JCX BXC

spoonerhead wrote: »

Who on earth is James Madden and why is he saying there's a heatwave with record breaking temperatures next week? It's on the Sun website and even Joe.ie

The key words there are "the sun website" and Joe.ie"

This gombeen has made hundreds of forecasts, and I'd be surprised if even one has actually been correct.

sryanbruen

So me and MT are predicting a Summer that is quite close to 1999 standards. Mind you, here's Summer 1999's summary if you did not know what that Summer was like:

June: Quite cool, dull and mainly wet in places.
July: Very warm, sunny and dry in many places.
August: Very wet in the south. Quite warm and mainly dull.

Would you think Summer 1999 was a good Summer?

fepper

Sun,rain,heat during summer months,a farmers and gardeners dream for growing crops, not for sunbathing for the holidays

Billcarson

Decent enough summer overall I reckon but nothing too exciting .Decent first half ,poorer second half.

I'm ambivalent when it comes to summer weather so I don't really care all that much, although i would not like a washout.

Clonmel1000

Well I'm not ambivalent at all about summer weather and dream of a repeat of 1995 or 1976.

sryanbruen

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Well I'm not ambivalent at all about summer weather and dream of a repeat of 1995 or 1976.

Well to have a month like July 1999 would be fine enough for me!

force eleven

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Well I'm not ambivalent at all about summer weather and dream of a repeat of 1995 or 1976.

Or indeed 2013...

pad199207

Proper summer downpour here in Naas

Dickie10

reports of a heatwave hitting us next weekend, any truth in this? supposed to be high pressure and air coming from south with azores high coming closer and jet stream moving north of us, would these conditions give usa heatwave?

fepper

Dickie10 wrote: »

reports of a heatwave hitting us next weekend, any truth in this? supposed to be high pressure and air coming from south with azores high coming closer and jet stream moving north of us, would these conditions give usa heatwave?

That's would be fantastic weather if its coming up to us

Dickie10

supposed to be high 20s to maybe 33 degrees in south of england we might get 25-27 in ireland

KungPao

Dickie10 wrote: »

reports of a heatwave hitting us next weekend, any truth in this? supposed to be high pressure and air coming from south with azores high coming closer and jet stream moving north of us, would these conditions give usa heatwave?

Reports from where or whom?

Padster90s

Dickie10 wrote: »

supposed to be high 20s to maybe 33 degrees in south of england we might get 25-27 in ireland

If only!...
Next week you can enjoy sunny spells and showers with a max temp in or around the 16C-18C mark. The south of England will do slightly better with highs of around 21C. Very typical late Spring weather. You can expect the same for the remainder of May and into early June.

sryanbruen

Dickie10 wrote: »

supposed to be high 20s to maybe 33 degrees in south of england we might get 25-27 in ireland

:pac::pac::pac:. I hope you do not believe this because it's definitely fake.

Clonmel1000

25-27 degrees?????really????

sryanbruen

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

25-27 degrees?????really????

:pac::pac:. Great sarcasm there.

Gonzo

the reality is next week will see temps struggle to get much past 16C with most places averaging 13-15C throughout next week, no heatwave here any time soon.

Elmer Blooker

A big volcano has erupted in Costa Rica, I think with the prevailing winds we could be seeing spectacular blood red sunsets this summer?
It does of course depend on how long the eruption lasts. Something to keep an eye on.
https://www.rt.com/news/343875-costa-rica-volcano-erupts/

sryanbruen

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

A big volcano has erupted in Costa Rica, I think with the prevailing winds we could be seeing spectacular blood red sunsets this summer?
It does of course depend on how long the eruption lasts. Something to keep an eye on.
https://www.rt.com/news/343875-costa-rica-volcano-erupts/

What about ash like the one from Iceland in 2010?

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

What about ash like the one from Iceland in 2010?

Too far away to affect flights here in Europe I'd say. Eruptions need to be very very big to affect the weather, the Tambora eruption in 1815 followed by the "year without a summer" in 1816 being the best example.
As I said it depends on how long the eruption lasts.

sryanbruen

It isn't looking too bad of a start to the Summer, especially compared to last year when the 1 June was the windiest Summer day since 25 July 1988.

Slieve Gullion

sryanbruen wrote: »

It isn't looking too bad of a start to the Summer, especially compared to last year when the 1 June was the windiest Summer day since 25 July 1988.

Very good archive info sryan. We have to take the bad with good in the maritime zone unfortunately. The summer seems to be off to a great start and hopefully it will keep going for us.

sryanbruen

Slieve Gullion wrote: »

Very good archive info sryan. We have to take the bad with good in the maritime zone unfortunately. The summer seems to be off to a great start and hopefully it will keep going for us.

Here's the forecast from last year on May 31st and Alex Deakin states for the first day of June: "But for the start of June, don't expect anything spectacular. If anything, it's going to get wetter and windier over the next couple of days".

Stealthfins

Gonzo wrote:

the reality is next week will see temps struggle to get much past 16C with most places averaging 13-15C throughout next week, no heatwave here any time soon.

You said that a week ago....

Dickie10

emm i wasnt too far off the mark maybe a few days out

JanuarySnowstor

Very warm in Cork this evening still 19c at 9pm.
Uncomfortable for sleeping.

I see met eireann have temps down to 7-10.
I doubt that for here anyway

JCX BXC

Dickie10 wrote: »

emm i wasnt too far off the mark maybe a few days out

Yes you were? You predicted 25-27, we got 17-22!

patneve2

Even though its a degree or two too cool for my liking here on the coast, it really has been an amazing couple of days. Looks likely to continue for the short /medium range

Dickie10

if we hadnt a northerly and easterly breeeze would it be warmer if coming straight from south?

sryanbruen

Dickie10 wrote: »

if we hadnt a northerly and easterly breeeze would it be warmer if coming straight from south?

Yes but even then there would be more clouds in the sky due to warm air holding more moisture.

JCX BXC

South Easterly continental flow would be the best.

Although, I don't mind this north east flow either, 22c in my back garden and feeling a lot warmer. Sitting here boiling out of it!

sryanbruen

It's misty and freezing here at Grange right now. Feels more like Winter and I'm wearing shorts haha.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Looks like clearing very soon though !

yellowlabrador

It's lovely here in West Cork.

JCX BXC

Beautiful morning in West Clare, not a cloud to be seen! 18.2c out now in a light northeasterly. Wind is blowing over land so its likely going to one of, if not the warmest day so far.

Gonzo

nowhere nearly as good as past few days, alot of cloud this morning and much cooler, a good 5C cooler than this time yesterday, still pleasant enough. 15C now compared to almost 21C this time yesterday.

Gonzo

Much of the UK has been having terrible weather past few days while we have had summer. London and the south-east has struggled in low teens past few days with flooding in some areas. Now the east coast of Ireland has joined England and Wales in cooler conditions. This weekend, next week and the week after will see warm conditions in most places, although it may not as settled as it has been.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

Much of the UK has been having terrible weather past few days while we have had summer. London and the south-east has struggled in low teens past few days with flooding in some areas. Now the east coast of Ireland has joined England and Wales in cooler conditions. This weekend, next week and the week after will see warm conditions in most places, although it may not as settled as it has been.

They deserve it anyways for all the luck they get of having Summer weather frequently compared to us .