Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

Sabre Man

Tesla claims Model 3 outsold all other premium sedans combined in US in July
https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-claims-model-3-outsold-all-premium-sedans-combined-us-july/

Tesla says these are the 5 cars people are trading in for the Model 3:
According to Tesla, the Honda Accord, Honda Civic, Toyota Prius, Nissan Leaf, and the BMW 3 Series are the five most commonly traded models.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-cars-trade-in-honda-bmw-prius-leaf-2018-8?r=US&IR=T

And that's even before the cheapest model is available.

b4bmm

Tesla are not just disrupting one huge industry, the auto industry, which they are well and truly disrupting they are disrupting the oil/gas/energy industry too which is getting less attention right now but is growing just as fast.

Read reviews from everyday people who have bought a model 3 and they are blown away. They will never buy an ICE vehicle again they say. Musk is an insane visionary (a bit of an egomaniac which is probably essential unfortunately) and he deserves all the success he gets.

beertons

What's the jazz with Pilbarra dropping?

el diablo

b4bmm wrote: »

Tesla are not just disrupting one huge industry, the auto industry, which they are well and truly disrupting they are disrupting the oil/gas/energy industry too which is getting less attention right now but is growing just as fast.

Read reviews from everyday people who have bought a model 3 and they are blown away. They will never buy an ICE vehicle again they say. Musk is an insane visionary (a bit of an egomaniac which is probably essential unfortunately) and he deserves all the success he gets.

Hmmm.

Fanboy
An extreme fan or follower of a particular medium or concept, whether it be sports, television, film directors, video games, etc.

Known for a complete lack of objectivity in relation to their preferred focus. Usually argue with circular logic that they refuse to acknowledge. Arguments or debates with such are usually futile. Every flaw is spun into semi-virtues and everything else, blown to comedic, complimentary proportions.

Sabre Man

el diablo wrote: »

Hmmm.

Play the ball, not the man. What part of the statement do you disagree with, and why?

b4bmm

https://youtu.be/wxEClGh6Mus

Haha funny because it’s true.

Kuva

b4bmm wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxEClGh6Mus

.

zpehtsfd

Sentiment > Fundamentals

That's it in a nutshell. We are in the amidst of the greatest bull market in history due to ZIRP/NIRP, unprecendented stock buybacks, massive tax cuts and forced buyins from the shorts.

Anyone who thinks the stock price of Tesla reflects it's current operations is deluded. We've seen this before with the dotcom bubble where they valued companies based on nothing more then promise. This is nothing new and yet some believe it's different this time.

Sabre Man

Tesla shares jump on report Saudi Arabia sovereign wealth fund has $2 billion stake

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/07/tesla-shares-jump-on-report-saudi-arabia-sovereign-wealth-fund-has-2-.html

Also:
Tesla Jumps After Musk Tweets He Could Take Company Private at $420
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-07/musk-tweets-am-considering-taking-tesla-private-at-420

Sabre Man

And trading has been halted:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/07/tesla-stock-jumps-on-musks-tweet-that-he-is-considering-taking-compan.html

Sabre Man

And trading seems to have started again, up about 12% today.

Tesla says no final decision has been made to take company private:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/07/tesla-says-no-final-decision-has-been-made-to-take-company-private.html

lucky john

Early days in this but I for one will not want to sell at €420 despite 100% profit. If as EM tweeted, shareholders can continue to hold even if Tesla is private I would be happy to do that.

You would have to say this will not be an easy deal to get over the line. The billions involved alone is staggering. Apart from any oil money
the Chinese have a huge stake as well. Having said that it makes perfect sense for Musk and Tesla to do a deal now.

thisonetaken

lucky john wrote: »

Early days in this but I for one will not want to sell at €420 despite 100% profit. If as EM tweeted, shareholders can continue to hold even if Tesla is private I would be happy to do that.

You would have to say this will not be an easy deal to get over the line. The billions involved alone is staggering. Apart from any oil money
the Chinese have a huge stake as well. Having said that it makes perfect sense for Musk and Tesla to do a deal now.

I don’t think many would be willing to sell at 420, I’ll be looking to buy more if it looks like this is going ahead, I’m sure many will be the same.

b4bmm

LMFAO
Like I said before, don’t ever bet against Musk, you will lose, in the long run.
The burn continues, Tesla “overvalued” by 11% lol.

Whether it’s just to shake the shorters or whether it’s legit it’s a master stroke. I believe it’s legit as the rational makes a lot of sense and it will likely coincide with a capital injection To progress China and European GFs. Go suck a fat one Chanos and Einhorn, cockroaches.

This link has Musks note to employees/shareholders.

https://electrek.co/2018/08/07/elon-musk-tesla-privsate-plans-like-spacex/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

“Love or hate the man, that’s one of the most badass moves I have seen on the financial markets for a long time.

You have some very powerful people like billionaire hedge fund manager David Einhorn who keeps justifying every quarter to his investors why they are losing money on his decision to bet against Tesla. It will be interesting to read his next letter to investors.

There’s also an army of internet trolls who live for the purpose to support the bear case against Tesla and they will most likely lose their purpose if this goes through.

And even if it doesn’t, Musk just showed them that he has a special weapon in his pocket, which leads me to believe that we might have seen the peak shorting on Tesla no matter what happens next”

unkel

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Tesla is a blip in the general schemes of things. Is it 0.04% of car production yet it's the 4th largest value car manufacturer by market cap. That makes no sense.

Shorting Tesla just based on that simple logic seems like a very risky gamble to me. The move away from the internal combustion engine to electric vehicles looks like it is happening much faster than anyone would have predicted a year or two ago. And Tesla, while struggling, look like they can ramp up quicker than anyone else, bar maybe the Chinese

I don't own Tesla shares, never have and probably never will, but seriously the move to EV is already a done deal, any incumbent car manufacturers sitting on their hands much longer might very well be gone soon. If I were to short any automotive company, it would be Toyota, Ford, Honda or your favourite, Mazda.

Sabre Man

How would keeping shares actually work after any privatization? I use DeGiro so TSLA won't be traded there afterwards I presume.

How does it work for SpaceX?

lucky john

Sabre Man wrote: »

How would keeping shares actually work after any privatization? I use DeGiro so TSLA won't be traded there afterwards I presume.

How does it work for SpaceX?

For a start the deal might not get done in the end. it sounds like the private structure will be very complicated to achieve.

This seems to be a unique option for share holders. I have no idea how the transfer of shares will work. i hope we don't need to sell to buy. one thing is clear. once you are in you can only get out at a time of the private company's choosing. that will most likely be only every 6 months in a short window.

elon said the cash is ready to go. difficult for them to know that unless there is a $80 billion fund available. The big investors, Elon, 10c, the Saudi's plus some smaller investors will stay in. $40 billion might be all they need but we will have to wait and see. that 40 billion (50% of the company value) will probably be from multiple sources because I would expect that Elon will want to be the biggest share holder. Other wise it would look like a take over. If Google is the money man then that's definitely what would be said.

As for the shorts. they are in trouble. It could cost them $420 per share today to cover their positions. Still, they got fair warning so let them burn.

Dardania

lucky john wrote: »

For a start the deal might not get done in the end. it sounds like the private structure will be very complicated to achieve.

This seems to be a unique option for share holders. I have no idea how the transfer of shares will work. i hope we don't need to sell to buy. one thing is clear. once you are in you can only get out at a time of the private company's choosing. that will most likely be only every 6 months in a short window.

elon said the cash is ready to go. difficult for them to know that unless there is a $80 billion fund available. The big investors, Elon, 10c, the Saudi's plus some smaller investors will stay in. $40 billion might be all they need but we will have to wait and see. that 40 billion (50% of the company value) will probably be from multiple sources because I would expect that Elon will want to be the biggest share holder. Other wise it would look like a take over. If Google is the money man then that's definitely what would be said.

As for the shorts. they are in trouble. It could cost them $420 per share today to cover their positions. Still, they got fair warning so let them burn.

I suspect Elon might have said the privatisation in order to flush out the shorters

phantom_lord

unkel wrote: »

Shorting Tesla just based on that simple logic seems like a very risky gamble to me. The move away from the internal combustion engine to electric vehicles looks like it is happening much faster than anyone would have predicted a year or two ago. And Tesla, while struggling, look like they can ramp up quicker than anyone else, bar maybe the Chinese

I don't own Tesla shares, never have and probably never will, but seriously the move to EV is already a done deal, any incumbent car manufacturers sitting on their hands much longer might very well be gone soon. If I were to short any automotive company, it would be Toyota, Ford, Honda or your favourite, Mazda.

But no major car company is sitting on their hands. Once the economics of EV > ICE Tesla is going to be swamped with competition. Tesla has no competitive advantage here at all. And the majors are already coming out with superior models like Jaguar's Ipace.

And Tesla didn't ramp up numbers, they just went flat out for a week to be able to present good numbers, their real production is shambles. Find it amazing the level of delusion around this company. It's like Eron/Theranos never happened.

Betting on EV cars with Tesla is like betting on the internet with Pets.com

Sabre Man

phantom_lord wrote: »

But no major car company is sitting on their hands. Once the economics of EV > ICE Tesla is going to be swamped with competition. Tesla has no competitive advantage here at all. And the majors are already coming out with superior models like Jaguar's Ipace.

And Tesla didn't ramp up numbers, they just went flat out for a week to be able to present good numbers, their real production is shambles. Find it amazing the level of delusion around this company. It's like Eron/Theranos never happened.

Betting on EV cars with Tesla is like betting on the internet with Pets.com

What makes you say the I-PACE is superior? By all accounts it's a very good car but I just don't see it offering anything substantially better that a Model S or X.

Tesla registed a lot of new Model 3 VIN numbers over the last few days according to Model3VINs on Twitter. The highest Model 3 VIN is close to 90k. Model 3 is a game changer. Model 3 Performance has been clocked to 3.2 seconds 0-100 km/h.

Other manufacturers don't have:
battery capacity
charging network
almost fanatical followers
regular updates over the air

cros13

phantom_lord wrote: »

Tesla has no competitive advantage here at all.

Yes they do. Battery supply and vertical integration.

Take a look at Hyundai... One of the largest carmakers in the world. Privileged access to both the 2nd and 4th largest cell manufacturers in the world (LG Chem and Samsung SDI). Last year they doubled their battery supply in part due to external forces (a chinese boycott due to THAAD targeting radars being based in SK, which meant production from LG's lines in China could be sent to SK) and government pressure on LG/Samsung & SK Innovations to prioritize domestic customers.
Their doubled battery supply didn't make a dent in Ioniq waiting lists up to 12 months in many markets... And when you compare their battery supply to Tesla it looks worse....

Hyundai group's total battery supply (including Kia) was 10% of what Tesla got from panasonic's japanese 18650 plants alone last year for Model S & X production.

This is not the traditional car market. The battery can be over 40% of the bill of materials by cost. There's not a lot of room there to pay higher cell prices without pushing your product out of reach for consumers.
If you can't get batteries... and you can't pay more than $140/kWh or the car is too expensive to sell and every supplier out there wants you to put capital in years in advance to build out production capacity to support your order.... how in the hell are you going to challenge Tesla with it's existing supplier relationships, cell production lines built or nearing completion and sub $100/kWh cell price?

The iPace is production is limited to 12,000 units next year.... Why? because LG Chem can't supply any more cells.

unkel

Sabre Man wrote: »

almost fanatical followers

This is not to be underestimated. Not just fanatical followers but simply patriots. For the first time in decades, the yanks can finally buy decent cars made in the USA. And so they will.

phantom_lord

Sabre Man wrote: »

Other manufacturers don't have:
battery capacity

Tesla relies on Panasonic for their batteries, and there's massive battery factories popping up all over asia that are much larger than the gigafactory

Sabre Man wrote: »

Other manufacturers don't have:
charging network

Tesla doesn't hold a monopoly here, there's 50k charging stations in the US, and VW is investing 2bn in building more stations.

Sabre Man wrote: »

regular updates over the air

Yes they do.

Sabre Man wrote: »

almost fanatical followers

True, no other consumers would tolerate the poor quality Model 3s being put out.

cros13

phantom_lord wrote: »

Tesla relies on Panasonic for their batteries, and there's massive battery factories popping up all over asia that are much larger than the gigafactory

No, there are plans like CATL, Northvolt etc... not a single brick laid for a real factory. All the non Panasonic players are growing capacity at a steady 50%/annum. If you want to buy more capacity than that... every supplier wants money up front.

Just to give you an idea of the scale. There were 19.6 million cars produced in europe last year. With an average pack capacity of 70kWh you need nigh on 1400GWh/annum of production capacity to build that number of EVs. The new LG plant in Poland providing cells for the iPace/Renault Zoe and european production of next year's 60kWh Nissan Leaf can supply 3GWh/annum. just three.

phantom_lord wrote: »

Tesla doesn't hold a monopoly here, there's 50k charging stations in the US, and VW is investing 2bn in building more stations.

Yes they do. There are only two public non-Tesla 100kW+ rapids in the whole of north america.... and they only opened in the last month.

FriendsEV

cros13 wrote: »

Yes they do. Battery supply and vertical integration.

Take a look at Hyundai... One of the largest carmakers in the world. Privileged access to both the 2nd and 4th largest cell manufacturers in the world (LG Chem and Samsung SDI). Last year they doubled their battery supply in part due to external forces (a chinese boycott due to THAAD targeting radars being based in SK, which meant production from LG's lines in China could be sent to SK) and government pressure on LG/Samsung & SK Innovations to prioritize domestic customers.
Their doubled battery supply didn't make a dent in Ioniq waiting lists up to 12 months in many markets... And when you compare their battery supply to Tesla it looks worse....

Hyundai group's total battery supply (including Kia) was 10% of what Tesla got from panasonic's japanese 18650 plants alone last year for Model S & X production.

This is not the traditional car market. The battery can be over 40% of the bill of materials by cost. There's not a lot of room there to pay higher cell prices without pushing your product out of reach for consumers.
If you can't get batteries... and you can't pay more than $140/kWh or the car is too expensive to sell and every supplier out there wants you to put capital in years in advance to build out production capacity to support your order.... how in the hell are you going to challenge Tesla with it's existing supplier relationships, cell production lines built or nearing completion and sub $100/kWh cell price?

The iPace is production is limited to 12,000 units next year.... Why? because LG Chem can't supply any more cells.

If Korean giants Hyundai give LG Chem 8 billion to make 1 million 60kWh packs

Its done

Instead Hyundai are putting in pathetic orders for 20,000 packs, LG can't expand with those orders

They have been burned before with over capacity

Autogiants don't want to make EVs

They have invested too much in engines

Once they get serious and start putting in multi billion dollar contracts to battery giants Tesla are screwed tbh

VW group and the like have financial power and economy of scale to crush them in there current state

Not to mention Teslas are American cars, which are rubbish

Love them but they look like crap inside and out compared to premium stuff like Porsche etc

Whos going to buy a Model S for 110k when a Porsche is the same price, same range, same power?

It will be a vastly superior car from one of the most prestigious car manufacturers in the world

Like wise who's going to buy a Model 3 which is pretty ugly imo, given the choice of a gorgeous Mercedes CLS class coupe

Tesla is the only game in town, they should enjoy it

Sabre Man

Albemarle triples quarterly profit on rising lithium sales
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/albemarle-triples-quarterly-profit-rising-022649835.html

Up over 7% at the moment but still down quite a bit since the September 2017 high.

zpehtsfd

So Musk had to threaten to take the company private to get his "short squeeze of the century" to happen? And the reference to the number 420 is more then just a coincidence in my opinion. Has he moved on from ambien and wine? Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

The privatization will never happen and was just a ploy so they could pay the bond holders in equity instead of cash. His tweet was blatant market manipulation and i hope the SEC come knocking on his door soon.

FriendsEV

zpehtsfd wrote: »

So Musk had to threaten to take the company private to get his "short squeeze of the century" to happen? And the reference to the number 420 is more then just a coincidence in my opinion. Has he moved on from ambien and wine? Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

The privatization will never happen and was just a ploy so they could pay the bond holders in equity instead of cash. His tweet was blatant market manipulation and i hope the SEC come knocking on his door soon.

Without a sugar daddy hard to see where he will get funding

Even if only 50% cash in

Will need 35 billion

At 4% interest that's 1.4 billion yearly interest

For a company yet to turn profit, that's some over head

Unless Apple decide to use a bit of lose change they have to buy or a Saudi prince funds, I think he's bluffing

lucky john

FriendsEV wrote: »

Without a sugar daddy hard to see where he will get funding

Even if only 50% cash in

Will need 35 billion

At 4% interest that's 1.4 billion yearly interest

For a company yet to turn profit, that's some over head

Unless Apple decide to use a bit of lose change they have to buy or a Saudi prince funds, I think he's bluffing

I doubt he is looking to borrow the money. This seems to be a shares for cash deal. Only those with deep pockets like google, apple, Buffet, wealth funds, Blackrock ect need apply. Buffet has $110 billion in cash looking for an opportunity and is annoyed he missed out on the big tech stories. he has the long term picture in mind, the CE in Musk and the growth potential. Not sure the present balance sheet will tick the boxes for him though.

cros13

I think we'll see the big mutual funds and a few of the investors who are limited to public listed companies for varying reasons cash out.
With the saudi investment and ~70% of the remaining retail investors staying put I'd say he needs $20-25 bn. to get this over the line.
He'll also need to convince the banks currently providing credit to Tesla.