Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

Swiftly

Which has the best accuracy at this range?

cherryghost

Normally GFS but you never know how these events go. All we know is that it will rain in some place at some point :pac:

maquiladora

12Z GFS shows further (lighter) rain bands moving in after Saturday, bringing totals in the southwest up to 90mm by Tuesday night.

northgirl

Thanks to all for the invaluable updates and sharing of knowledge. Much appreciated.

Oneiric 3

EMHI still going for a couple of hours of sleety wet snow for the central belt of the country tomorrow morning as the northern flank of the rain band slices through.

maquiladora

Met Office hi res model is showing the rain clearing away eastwards quickly tomorrow, the heavy stuff will be over Wales by 9am!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=53.09&fcTime=1449867600

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Office hi res model is showing the rain clearing away eastwards quickly tomorrow, the heavy stuff will be over Wales by 9am!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=53.09&fcTime=1449867600

That is a nice link Maq. I particularly like the frontal forecast maps on it (being a fan of more 'traditional' charts!) This one is for midnight tonight.

weatherfiend

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Office hi res model is showing the rain clearing away eastwards quickly tomorrow, the heavy stuff will be over Wales by 9am!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=53.09&fcTime=1449867600

That's great to know maq as we have to travel to Waterford tomorrow for a funeral. Many thanks

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Office hi res model is showing the rain clearing away eastwards quickly tomorrow, the heavy stuff will be over Wales by 9am!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=53.09&fcTime=1449867600

I use this all the time
it's brilliant within a 6 hour timeframe or so
less accurate after that as its working off older data

Oneiric 3

EC 12z rainfall for tomorrow noon. Seems to have the bulk of the rain passing over midwest and central belt of the country.




Not the greatest of charts for specifics though.

pad199207

BBC showin the rain clearing by 12 noon

km79

pad199207 wrote: »

BBC showin the rain clearing by 12 noon

general consensus now seems a very wet 6 hours or so before clearing

Clonmel1000

KathleenF wrote: »

No one wants people to be hurt in any way by extreme weather, I think it's fair to say. At the risk of stating the obvious though, wishing/wanting/hoping for extreme weather (snow/storms/etc) to happen or not happen has zero influence on whether it will occur or not.

PS - I'm only ever in the weather forum from November - February as an interested lurker, so will add my sincere thanks to all (knowledgeable and otherwise!) who contribute. Have put off driving Dublin - Kerry return this weekend as result of reading this thread and others.

Honest question why have you put off journey like that? I plan to do a similar spin myself but am not I any doubt about it.

Rock Lesnar

pad199207 wrote: »

BBC showin the rain clearing by 12 noon

Yeah their forecast yesterday showed that to, and this morning before 7 showed what looked like a nice bit of snow around north leinster tomorrow before turning to rain then clearing to cold weather again, found their forecast very reliable before last weeks storm so hopefully right again about tomorrow

pad199207

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Yeah their forecast yesterday showed that to, and this morning before 7 showed what looked like a nice bit of snow around north leinster tomorrow before turning to rain then clearing to cold weather again, found their forecast very reliable before last weeks storm so hopefully right again about tomorrow

They didn't show much snow tonight apart from the Wicklow Mountains and Slieve Blooms. The temperature contrast for tomorrow will be something else.

KathleenF

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Honest question why have you put off journey like that? I plan to do a similar spin myself but am not I any doubt about it.

Fair question. If I'm honest, partly because I was out last night, had a tough day at work, and was looking for an excuse not to travel. Eight hours of driving in 48 hours with a very heavy rain forecast did the trick.

JanuarySnowstor

The rain is moving in now over the southwest and is forecast to remain wet for about 36 hours.

Flooding looks a cert and coincides with high tides.
Bandon and cork city look to be most at risk

Oneiric 3

Met's hirlam prep forecast for 4am. Seems that the heaviest of the rain is tending towards the SW/midwest region rather than further north.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The rain is moving in now over the southwest and is forecast to remain wet for about 36 hours.

Flooding looks a cert and coincides with high tides.
Bandon and cork city look to be most at risk

36 hours? Seems a bit at odds with what others are saying.

StewartGriffin

munsterlegend wrote: »

36 hours? Seems a bit at odds with what others are saying.

Yes. I've been to the shops for suncream and a deckchair after reading the last few pages.

km79

Siobhan needs a red warning for that dress
wowsers

JCX BXC

How do you obtain the current temps and dew point charts?

munsterlegend

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Yes. I've been to the shops for suncream and a deckchair after reading the last few pages.

When you flying out?

StewartGriffin

munsterlegend wrote: »

When you flying out?

I have the wings attached now. Just waiting for the wind.

JCX BXC

Moderate rain here which looks on the verge of sleet (If that's possible to say)


Location: West Clare

Oscar Bravo

2240 update

Many areas dry at first tonight, but cold, with some frost. Minimum temperatures 0 to 4 Celsius. Less cold in the south and along the west coast, with rain, extending across the country overnight and in the early morning, heavy at times with sleet and a risk of snow in places. Becoming windy south and southwest coasts, with strong southwesterly winds developing, but mostly light to moderate winds elsewhere.




Tomorrow

Saturday morning will be wet, with heavy rain in many areas and with sleet and possibly snow in places across the northern half of the country, but it will be very mild in the south. Clearer weather, with just scattered showers, will extend gradually from the northwest, reaching many parts by evening, but rain will continue in most of Munster and south Leinster, with some heavy falls. Maximum temperatures 11 to 13 Celsius in the south, but 2 to 5 degrees elsewhere. Very windy along southern and eastern coasts, with strong southwesterly winds, but winds mostly light to moderate elsewhere.

Storm 10

Is this rain moving further North than forecast, looking at the radar it seems to be

kmoneill

Heavy rain here already ,mid kerry ..

Stealthfins

Still dry out in Clare
Nice crowd in Durty Nellys

JCX BXC

Knock airport forecast (TAF) for 11pm showing

Tempo Rain Snow (AKA Sleet) with 800m vis from 5am-10am and another tempo of snow with 300m vis for the same time range.