Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

Elmer Blooker

Villain wrote: »

Six One Weather

She also said there's the possibility of more heavy rain on Monday as well.

Nabber

Definitely time for shannon basin residents to start preparing for the worst. Usual flood spots in Cork/Kerry too.

I would say all flood risk areas south of the Galway Louth line should consider their position.

Remember no flood barrier is impenetrable. Don't consider yourself flood proof

Villain

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

She also said there's the possibility of more heavy rain on Monday as well.

Ya that looks a South coast event at present but obviously at that range, well open to changing.

Rock Lesnar

Lads i just watched a bbc forecast on their website, and it showed the rain clearing the north east around 2pm on saturday and then i see Villains pics on ME's forecast, i'm hoping the bbc are right, as they were spot on for my area last weekend

redsteveireland

Iancar29 wrote: »

Latest NMM showing Clare, Galway and Westmeath bearing the brunt of the rain on Saturday.

I feel sorry for all the people I know effected by this already. It is also causing traffic chaos every morning and evening.
All alternative routes in and out of the city from the north and east are affected bar the motorway.
Small side roads are closed forcing people onto the N17 and the headford Road, these roads are in danger of being closed completely, that will spell disaster for access to the city for the 1000's of commuters.

Oneiric 3

redsteveireland wrote: »

I feel sorry for all the people I know effected by this already. It is also causing traffic chaos every morning and evening.
All alternative routes in and out of the city from the north and east are affected bar the motorway.
Small side roads are closed forcing people onto the N17 and the headford Road, these roads are in danger of being closed completely, that will spell disaster for access to the city for the 1000's of commuters.

Passed the river going through Claregalway the other day and it really was just a hairs breath away from spilling over right into village. Not sure if levels have lowered since but if this rain hits us as forecast it would be concerning to say the least.

maquiladora

GFS


GEM


UKMO

V_Moth

What does the weather look like for Sunday 8am to 1pm in SW Cork? Is it likely to be very windy (>F3) with persistent rain?

gally74

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Passed the river going through Claregalway the other day and it really was just a hairs breath away from spilling over right into village. Not sure if levels have lowered since but if this rain hits us as forecast it would be concerning to say the least.

Its dropping

_Puma_

redsteveireland wrote: »

I feel sorry for all the people I know effected by this already. It is also causing traffic chaos every morning and evening.
All alternative routes in and out of the city from the north and east are affected bar the motorway.
Small side roads are closed forcing people onto the N17 and the headford Road, these roads are in danger of being closed completely, that will spell disaster for access to the city for the 1000's of commuters.

N84 is closed tonight for emergency flood works. Not looking good at all after the last charts.

pauldry

Does the pink stuff come in or is that just an atlantic event.

I think last week was worse than this but still potential is there. If the heavy bursts break up your looking at 40 to 50mm but if that pink lot moves east and settles 70 to 100mm very possible

Shannon in Carrick is 2feet LESS than 2009 and parts of town still under water. That place is in dire need of flood defence system

maquiladora

pauldry wrote: »

Does the pink stuff come in or is that just an atlantic event.

I think last week was worse than this but still potential is there. If the heavy bursts break up your looking at 40 to 50mm but if that pink lot moves east and settles 70 to 100mm very possible

Shannon in Carrick is 2feet LESS than 2009 and parts of town still under water. That place is in dire need of flood defence system

Those are very low res charts. They just give a broad impression of the distribution of rainfall. Locally and over high ground totals would be higher.

M.T. Cranium

I think this thread could go to level 2 adding Flood Risk Clare, Galway, midlands or central.

Window of opportunity for snow seems to be 0600-1100h north-central counties, rapid melt of any accumulation rest of Saturday.

On balance of guidance looks to be 50-100 mm range of total three-day rainfalls in Clare, Galway and some central counties over three day period, 30-60 mm Cork, Waterford and parts of south Leinster.

JCX BXC

Question for the professionals,

Are their much accumulations possible on Saturday, and if their is, could the rapidly melting snow with the advancing rain cause flash flooding?

maquiladora

18Z HIRLAM shows the most intense rain over the Mayo/Galway area. A fair bit further north than some of the other models.
Tough one to call still.

JCX BXC

9 pm news alot more specific. 20-50mm very possible, with some heavy wintry downfalls up north early on. Temps from 2c up north to 12c down south.

Villain

9PM similar charts but the word incessant was used a few times!!

leahyl

It wouldn't be our Siobhan without the word incessant thrown in when referring to a heavy rain event :-)

JanuarySnowstor

18z gfs run moves it a nudge south again.
Not far off what was predicted 24 hours ago
Cork back in the firing line
River Shannon is the bullseye

Natonstan

Hope everyone's safe over there, like I said I'm not home till the 24th so I'm trying to keep up with the forecasts and all the posts here have been a great help, i'll be heading to Westmeath myself so very concerned about family living in the county.

maquiladora

Looks like 18Z has shifted the track back south a bit, but at first glance amounts for Saturday look to be less than on the 12Z.

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like 18Z has shifted the track back south a bit, but at first glance amounts for Saturday look to be less than on the 12Z.

that's good
hopefully rainfall intensity keeps trending downwards to just a normal wet day !
wishful thinking .....

JanuarySnowstor

Looks torrential to me am not seeing any lack of intensity on 18z.
Saying that I didn't see the 12Z.
Worth bearing in mind the lag time for rainfall to feed into the rivers mean Monday or Tuesday could be the worst

km79

is this what I'm supposed to be looking at ?
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&HH=54&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Oneiric 3

18z frontal analysis (had to tilt it a bit for better perspective)




When you see fairly tightly packed isobars lying almost parallel ahead of a warm front, it indicates there is strong advection going on and that the front itself is quite active.

maquiladora

Heaviest rain over the southwest on the 18Z GFS. Max totals a little lower on this run and obviously lower for areas further north with the more southerly track.

This doesn't agree with the HIRLAM track though. EURO4 should be interesting later.

Up until Sunday night :

JanuarySnowstor

We'll pbly see an orange warning in the morning with a red by the evening.
Then again they might just go for straight red

Swiftly

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

We'll pbly see an orange warning in the morning with a red by the evening.
Then again they might just go for straight red

No chance if the GFS totals above are correct

Oneiric 3

As much as I love the rain (and I do), a week or two of strong, dry, cold, Russian sourced easterlies would do wonders to help dry up the place a bit and give some relief to those people - and animals - that are suffering with those terrible floods at the mo.

legomaniac

By the sounds of things I think we should be so relieved we misses a bullet this Saturday. Was talking to a neighbour who's brother in law works for Donegal County Council and he told me that after a briefing with Met Eireann this afternoon it is looking like just a wet drizzly day for these parts anyway and that the yellow warning will only stay in place in the south of the country as river levels are so high.