2015-16 Champions Cup thread

Buer · 23-01-2016 7:41pm

Third try and 32 minutes to get the 4th. This was a game that I thought could fall Ulster's way. If they get the BP, it will mean either a Stade win tomorrow eliminates them before the final pool is even played.

matthew8 · 23-01-2016 7:42pm

Wasps

Buer wrote: »

Third try and 32 minutes to get the 4th. This was a game that I thought could fall Ulster's way. If they get the BP, it will mean either a Stade win or Ospreys win tomorrow eliminates them.

On the bright side because of the margin of today's win, Stade have to win by 7 to overtake Ulster.

awec · 23-01-2016 7:46pm

Buer wrote: »

Third try and 32 minutes to get the 4th. This was a game that I thought could fall Ulster's way. If they get the BP, it will mean either a Stade win or Ospreys win tomorrow eliminates them.

A Stade win tomorrow doesn't actually eliminate us any more due to the points difference.

They need to obviously not get a bonus point, because 5 points puts them through.

If they win by 6 points or less, with no BP, Ulster are above them.

If they win by 7 points with no BP and score 1 try - it'll come down to disciplinary record as we'd be equal on points, points diff and tries.

If they win by 7 points with no BP and more than 1 try - Ulster are out.

If they win by more than 7 points - Ulster are out.

Buer · 23-01-2016 7:48pm

There's also the matter of Ospreys/Clermont who could finish you too.

Northampton held up over the line. Matter of time here.

awec · 23-01-2016 7:52pm

The annoying thing is if we could have got that one last try at the death today it would have made a big difference. A 14 point win is a much bigger deal than 7 points.

aimee1 · 23-01-2016 7:53pm

leicester going to stade with nothing to play for tmrw by the looks of it they will be 2nd seed confirmed before a ball is kicked

Saints got a fourth try .......

aimee1 · 23-01-2016 7:54pm

leicester going to stade with nothing to play for tmrw by the looks of it they will be 2nd seed confirmed before a ball is kicked

Saints got a fourth try .......

awec · 23-01-2016 7:56pm

Yea I'm not hopeful, I think we're gone.

former total · 23-01-2016 7:59pm

Ospreys

We could be relying on Ospreys to win in Exeter to have any Pro12 side in the quarters. Grim.

errlloyd · 23-01-2016 8:23pm

Ospreys

aimee1 wrote: »

leicester going to stade with nothing to play for tmrw by the looks of it they will be 2nd seed confirmed before a ball is kicked

Saints got a fourth try .......

Pass was a mile forward too.

aimee1 · 23-01-2016 8:44pm

Racing v Toulon is confirmed as a QF

Buer · 23-01-2016 8:58pm

aimee1 wrote: »

Racing v Toulon is confirmed as a QF

That's a big deal. Racing are probably the side more than any other that will dispense with Toulon. They've no fear of them and have beaten them in the T14 at home in both the last two seasons. They've only played them in Toulon so far this season when Racing also won.

All 4 top seeds are now confirmed (the order can only change if Leicester get an unlikely BP win in Paris tomorrow): Saracens, Leicester, Racing, Wasps.

Ospreys are currently in 5th. Toulon are in 6th and that cannot change. Northampton are in 7th. Ulster are in 8th.

Both Northampton and Ulster could fall out of qualification if the Ospreys, Clermont (with BP) and Stade (with BP) all win tomorrow.

If Clermont and Ospreys finish on the same points, which seems quite likely to me, Ospreys finish ahead by virtue of collecting 6 match points to Clermont's 5 in their head to head.

If they both win, then Stade will need a BP win to qualify which I don't think they'll get.

With this in mind, I predict the following quarter finals:

Saracens vs Northampton
Leicester vs Clermont
Racing vs Toulon
Wasps vs Ospreys

I would predict all home wins if that came to pass.

Pink Fairy · 23-01-2016 8:59pm

aimee1 wrote: »

Racing v Toulon is confirmed as a QF

Would expect Racing to win, but still, tasty QF and one to look forward to

vienne86 · 23-01-2016 9:17pm

Scarlets

Buer wrote: »

That's a big deal. Racing are probably the side more than any other that will dispense with Toulon. They've no fear of them and have beaten them in the T14 at home in both the last two seasons. They've only played them in Toulon so far this season when Racing also won.

All 4 top seeds are now confirmed (the order can only change if Leicester get an unlikely BP win in Paris tomorrow): Saracens, Leicester, Racing, Wasps.

Ospreys are currently in 5th. Toulon are in 6th and that cannot change. Northampton are in 7th. Ulster are in 8th.

Both Northampton and Ulster could fall out of qualification if the Ospreys, Clermont (with BP) and Stade (with BP) all win tomorrow.

If Clermont and Ospreys finish on the same points, which seems quite likely to me, Ospreys finish ahead by virtue of collecting 6 match points to Clermont's 5 in their head to head.

If they both win, then Stade will need a BP win to qualify which I don't think they'll get.

With this in mind, I predict the following quarter finals:

Saracens vs Northampton
Leicester vs Clermont
Racing vs Toulon
Wasps vs Ospreys

I would predict all home wins if that came to pass.

Which would give us three English and one French team in the semis. I still think Racing might do it this year.

Buer · 23-01-2016 9:21pm

vienne86 wrote: »

Which would give us three English and one French team in the semis. I still think Racing might do it this year.

I reckon it will come down to who gets the home draw for the semi finals. Can't see past Racing or Saracens currently which is fair enough as they've been by far the best teams and played some great rugby.

KevinK · 23-01-2016 10:17pm

Buer wrote: »

I reckon it will come down to who gets the home draw for the semi finals. Can't see past Racing or Saracens currently which is fair enough as they've been by far the best teams and played some great rugby.

Is the draw not gone?
I thought it would be
Saracens at home to Wasps
Leicester at home to Racing
if the four home teams win.

irishbucsfan · 23-01-2016 10:22pm

Buer wrote: »

I reckon it will come down to who gets the home draw for the semi finals. Can't see past Racing or Saracens currently which is fair enough as they've been by far the best teams and played some great rugby.

As pointed out above, the draw no longer exists

http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/rules.php

NB The new format for the semi-final matches in the Champions Cup recognises performances by clubs during the pool stages as well as the achievement of a winning a quarter-final match away from home.

The winner of QF1 will play the winner of QF2 in one semi-final, and the winner of QF3 will play the winner of QF4 in the other semi-final as follows:

Semi-final 1: winner QF1 v winner QF2
Semi-final 2: winner QF3 v winner QF4

The semi-final matches will be played at venues designated by EPCR, but the following clubs will have home country advantage in their respective semi-final matches:

(a) For Semi-final 1

If the clubs ranked 1 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 1 will have home country

If the clubs ranked 1 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 8 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home country advantage

(b) For Semi-final 2

If the clubs ranked 3 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 2 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 3 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 7 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home country advantage

errlloyd · 24-01-2016 2:41am

Ospreys

Tradition requires one away team to win. I think it almost always happens. Clermont will beat Leicster away.

aimee1 · 24-01-2016 1:57pm

http://www.punditarena.com/rugby/adrumm/the-shocking-level-of-debt-held-by-saracens-revealed/

saracens in debt, 45 million sterling. thats, well staggering

aimee1 · 24-01-2016 1:57pm

http://www.punditarena.com/rugby/adrumm/the-shocking-level-of-debt-held-by-saracens-revealed/

saracens in debt, 45 million sterling. thats, well staggering

matthew8 · 24-01-2016 2:20pm

Wasps

Bright start for Leicester. 7-0 up. They blew 2 chances on Stade's line and now score from 60 metres out.

matthew8 · 24-01-2016 2:37pm

Wasps

So much for Leicester, Stade score 3 tries and it's 19-7. Should be curtains for Ulster.

aimee1 · 24-01-2016 2:37pm

matthew8 wrote: »

Bright start for Leicester. 7-0 up. They blew 2 chances on Stade's line and now score from 60 metres out.

stade have 3 tries now. 19-7

Roanmore · 24-01-2016 2:49pm

Awful kick off from Keatley, didn't make 5 metres never mind 10. Could have been costly.

Buer · 24-01-2016 3:11pm

Looks like Ulster's race is run. If Stade get another try, it doesn't matter if they win by less than 7 but even as it stands, Ulster are out.

Not to be churlish but no Irish province deserves to proceed to the knock outs. Ulster are in it right up until then end but their hopes were all supported by one great week where they won back to back games against Toulouse. The rest of their campaign was nothing too hot (as impressive as the score line was yesterday, it's hard use it as evidence of a team playing well enough to be in the top 8 in Europe).

They still may go through, in fairness, but things not looking great right now.

matthew8 · 24-01-2016 3:18pm

Wasps

4th try for Stade, game over.

aimee1 · 24-01-2016 3:19pm

stade have tbp, leicester down a man, youngs yc. stade cantering here

Buer · 24-01-2016 3:19pm

BP try for Stade against 14 men after Tom Youngs is carded for a little bit of silliness.

That's that then. Can go to bed for afternoon now!

Buer · 24-01-2016 3:19pm

BP try for Stade against 14 men after Tom Youngs is carded for a little bit of silliness.

That's that then. Can go to bed for afternoon now!

martingriff · 24-01-2016 4:18pm

At least we have Connacht in the Challenge Cup to cheer on

2015-16 Champions Cup thread

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