SNOWWATCH

watercarrier

Hey- as the nights are closing in and winter upon us. Thought I'd post up a snow watch thread. Anyone have any predictions on when the first blizzard is going to hit?

kit3

watercarrier wrote: »

Hey- as the nights are closing in and winter upon us. Thought I'd post up a snow watch thread. Anyone have any predictions on when the first blizzard is going to hit?

Always love to see this thread started - what are the chances for a snowfest this year ??

average_runner

watercarrier wrote: »

Hey- as the nights are closing in and winter upon us. Thought I'd post up a snow watch thread. Anyone have any predictions on when the first blizzard is going to hit?

Or even a snow shower

Hooter23

average_runner wrote: »

Or even a snow shower

Or even a flake:pac:

Yodeling Snake

watercarrier wrote: »

Hey- as the nights are closing in and winter upon us. Thought I'd post up a snow watch thread. Anyone have any predictions on when the first blizzard is going to hit?

I predict the nw face of Mt. Errigal Co Donegal. 14 November 3.08 am.

sryanbruen

The Grange area has 4.2% chance of snow this November.
It has a 8.1% chance of snow this December.
I have only 1.2% chance of snow on Christmas Day.
I have 18.9% chance of snow sometime this Winter.

So, snow right now is of very low chance. Have to wait 'til something like the 16th or 17th of November to see.

joujoujou

Yodeling Snake wrote: »

I predict the nw face of Mt. Errigal Co Donegal. 14 November 3.08 am.

Will you be there and shoot a photo for us?

gerrybhoy

sryanbruen wrote: »

The Grange area has 4.2% chance of snow this November.
It has a 8.1% chance of snow this December.
I have only 1.2% chance of snow on Christmas Day.
I have 18.9% chance of snow sometime this Winter.

So, snow right now is of very low chance. Have to wait 'til something like the 16th or 17th of November to see.

how do you come up with your wee conclusions/predictions

Iancar29

gerrybhoy wrote: »

how do you come up with your wee conclusions/predictions

Statistical forecast i presume

sryanbruen

gerrybhoy wrote: »

how do you come up with your wee conclusions/predictions

Past occurrences and comparing the averages

sideswipe

I predict a large dumping of snow...........with one flake (of the chocolate variety):D

vicwatson

Sneact maggeden !

Irelandcool

How will the cold blob in the atlantic ocean effect our winter though?

maquiladora

Irelandcool wrote: »

How will the cold blob in the atlantic ocean effect our winter though?

sea-surface temperatures continue to show a strong pattern of cooler-than-average conditions in mid-latitudes (north of approximately 40 ̊N) and warmer-than-average conditions further south. This corresponds to a strengthened temperature gradient which would be expected to increase the chance of westerly winds, which are usually associated with mild and wet weather in winter.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/c/o/A3_plots-temp-NDJ_v1.pdf

fits

There isnt even any snow in Lapland yet. Thats late.

Supercell

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/c/o/A3_plots-temp-NDJ_v1.pdf

I'll take the increased chance of strat warming -

While there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures for
the 3-month period as a whole, the risk of cold spells should not be
discounted entirely. In particular, this risk increases at the end of the
3-month period as that is the time of year when sudden stratospheric
warming events occur. These events tend to bring cold weather to the UK,
and occur more often in El Niño years than in other years.

Tabnabs

fits wrote: »

There isnt even any snow in Lapland yet. Thats late.

Don't know where you consider lapland to be, but a good sprinkling of snow in Norwegian Arctic (and further south) already.

JCX BXC

Didn't Poland get snow a few weeks ago unusually early?

joujoujou

Carnacalla wrote: »

Didn't Poland get snow a few weeks ago unusually early?

Yes.

[post]97350727[/post]

Yodeling Snake

One day late.

Yodeling Snake wrote: »

I predict the nw face of Mt. Errigal Co Donegal. 14 November 3.08 am.

Metmaster wrote: »

It has officially begun. Donegal was under a blanket this morning and with the weather set to change in the next week or so..i sense a 2010 pattern shaping up.

weatherfiend

Yodeling Snake wrote: »

One day late.

One day late is pretty good going!!

fits

Tabnabs wrote: »

Don't know where you consider lapland to be, but a good sprinkling of snow in Norwegian Arctic (and further south) already.

finnish lapland sorry. The snow has arrived in Eastern finland now anyway.

screamer

Yodeling Snake wrote: »

One day late.

Is that you Michael?
Only joking but fair play one day out in the grand scheme of things is pretty accurate.

Yodeling Snake

weatherfiend wrote: »

One day late is pretty good going!!

Ah I see you fell for the old nw face of Mt Errigal ploy . It is not uncommon to see the mountain tops snow capped in mid November. I was lucky I flucked it as near as I did. Thanks weatherfiend.

screamer wrote: »

Is that you Michael?
Only joking but fair play one day out in the grand scheme of things is pretty accurate.

No not me but I have a cousin in Lurgan named Michael;).
Thanks screamer.

jimbis

Awaiting to first mention of 'groupel' this year

Iancar29

jimbis wrote: »

Awaiting to first mention of 'groupel' grauple this year

Fixed that for ya :pac:

maquiladora

jimbis wrote: »

Awaiting to first mention of 'snizzle' this year

fixed it again :P:P

pauldry

Iancar29 wrote: »

Fixed that for ya :pac:

Is it not graupel?

Anyways therel be styrafoam/graupel esta fin de semana.

pauldry

Hearda snizzle what about snain??

Heavy rain with odd snowflake thrown in?

maquiladora

15cm on the Wiclow Mts by 6am Saturday? Iancar, I expect pictures.

jimbis

Iancar29 wrote: »

Fixed that for ya :pac:

I had to google the correct spelling before I posted that and I still typed it wrong. I'm gonna blame auto correct.

maquiladora

Fax chart for midnight showing a trough. On high ground away from the coast that should be wintry.

acassells80

Snow risk forecast maps showing snow for this evening in the east??

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151120/00/18/uksnowrisk.png

seamus

GEFS likewise showing the highest chance of snow in the east during the rush hour this evening. Probably little more than a short flurry, but no doubt enough to cause serious disruption.

maquiladora

acassells80 wrote: »

Snow risk forecast maps showing snow for this evening in the east??

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151120/00/18/uksnowrisk.png

That is showing 50-80% probability of precipitation falling as snow above 300m in that area.

Reckless Abandonment

One thing to note is the wind speeds. M.E. are going for quite strong winds this evening. So any showers that do make (snow or rain) will be moving fast and therefore won't get a chance to leave much as they pass.

Oscar Bravo

Cold air arriving now, dew point down to -2 at Donegal airport

FWVT

There is quite a bit of discrepancy between the models regarding snow parameters this evening and tomorrow. I would be looking for the following as first guess for snow to all levels:

850-100 hPa thickness: 129.0 dam or lower
850 theta-e: 10 °C or lower
850 theta-w: 1 °C or lower
500-1000 thickness: 518 dam or lower

The Euro4 and Hirlam meet these thresholds but the GFS hi-res does not, so it remains to be seen what effect the north Atlantic has on the airmass to our north. I would expect some flurries at low level inland during the night hours.

seamus

Most of the 6Z models downgrading the risk of snow for the east this afternoon/evening. If there's any at all, it'll only be above 200m.

smashey

Just had a very light and short snow shower in Strabane. 😄

lucy2010

Rain is now hail in round wood 😂

tylercollins

Just snowed for 30 seconds here outside of Derry. Amazing :P

shmaupel

Something is falling in Donegal town now. Not snow and not hail - kind of in between....

gerrybhoy

shmaupel wrote: »

Something is falling in Donegal town now. Not snow and not hail - kind of in between....

snail

shmaupel

shmaupel wrote: »

Something is falling in Donegal town now. Not snow and not hail - kind of in between....

That was fleeting.

Just plain old rain now.

Smidge

Snow Shower(which turned very quickly to hail and rain)
Meath/Cavan border

weatherfiend

gerrybhoy wrote: »

snail

Same in leopardstown

Oscar Bravo

2 degrees at knock airport now, dewpoint 0. Once the sun dissappears this evening, there should be snow at knock depending on track of the showers of course

kn2k10

Snowed in navan, meath just now

q85dw7osi4lebg

Short lasting RAIN in Galway City.

CiDeRmAn

Snow to Sleet here in Naul village, north Co. Dublin.
Very cold out there, no temp gauge though, sorry.