Mediterranean migrants- specific questions

RDM_83 again

Lockstep wrote: »

That doesn't sound very accurate: even if you disregard the UNHCR figures, just under half of asylum applications in Germany are from Syrians. And this is including asylum seekers from Balkan countries who would not be factored into Mediterranean arrival numbers.

Unless Tusk can show what his sources are, this isn't very reliable, even if you think he has insider knowledge that hasn't been released to the public.

I would hazard that Tusk is aware of likely misclassification/bogus information being used by migrants as Syrian and is aware of the failures in vetting.

If its he doesn't have a reason to think this why would he be coming out with information he knows to be false, its not like he's not going to be well informed about the various statistics and privy to lots of information thats not for public consumption.

I don't see a reason why the European Council President would be going out of his way to make Merkels life difficult- and if he is thats big news in and off its self because it marks a further fragmentation of the EU

Lockstep

RDM_83 again wrote: »

I would hazard that Tusk is aware of likely misclassification/bogus information being used by migrants as Syrian and is aware of the failures in vetting.

If its he doesn't have a reason to think this why would he be coming out with information he knows to be false, its not like he's not going to be well informed about the various statistics and privy to lots of information thats not for public consumption.

I don't see a reason why the European Council President would be going out of his way to make Merkels life difficult- and if he is thats big news in and off its self because it marks a further fragmentation of the EU

unless he releases his data, it just sounds like a glib remark by a politician without any substance. It doesn't add up with the rest of the data. Maybe he's referring to the June figures from Eurostat. Politicians certainly aren't high on my list of reliable sources unless they cite their arguments.

RDM_83 again

Lockstep wrote: »

unless he releases his data, it just sounds like a glib remark by a politician without any substance. It doesn't add up with the rest of the data. Maybe he's referring to the June figures from Eurostat. Politicians certainly aren't high on my list of reliable sources.

I don't know, I know politicians misrepresent figures all the time and sometimes are very ignorant on topics but Tusk has been involved with grappling with this crisis for the last year and he isn't some Healy Rae type. You don't think the Guardian with their editorial slant about the crisis wouldn't have questioned him on those figures?

I would lean towards the idea that he has information from that the processing centers that there is a large amount of false claims occurring and being approved due to lack of time but perhaps not enough to be a publishable survey.

Otherwise he is going on a solo run and making false statements, whats his motivation for doing that, as I said I don't automatically trust politicians figures but I don't presume they are idiots especially at the level Tusk operates at, he is making these statements for a reason.
1) Because its true and the published figures are inaccurate
2) Because he is seeking to isolate Merkel and for some reason wants to torpedo her plans?

Either one of these options is food for thought it your in the camps that favours continuation large scale movements into Europe, because it either highlights systemic abuse of the system, or the EU further fragmenting at its highest level over the crisis.

Nodin

RDM_83 again wrote: »

Doesn't seem to have been mentioned here but it looks like Merkel is becoming even more isolated and as one of the most important players within the EU and one with presumably access to a lot of information others aren't privy to his statements are worth consideration

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/02/detain-refugees-arriving--europe-18-months-donald-tusk

50% are Syrian according to the UNHCR, so I'd suggest Mr Tusk is out of the loop as far as current information is concerned.
http://www.ibtimes.com/european-refugee-crisis-2015-50-asylum-seekers-landing-europe-are-syrian-un-report-2084862

KingBrian2

Lockstep wrote: »

That doesn't sound very accurate: even if you disregard the UNHCR figures, just under half of asylum applications in Germany are from Syrians. And this is including asylum seekers from Balkan countries who would not be factored into Mediterranean arrival numbers.

Unless Tusk can show what his sources are, this isn't very reliable, even if you think he has insider knowledge that hasn't been released to the public.

Tusk is very much aware that many of these migrants are from the southern Mediterranean. The daily news constantly reports migrants from Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Morocco and Pakistan. He would not be doing his job well if he was not aware of all these facts. He has to speak to gvts that are receiving these migrants. It is virtually ludicrous to suggest Italian and Cypriot officials lieing to the President of the European Council.

RDM_83 again

Nodin wrote: »

50% are Syrian according to the UNHCR, so I'd suggest Mr Tusk is out of the loop as far as current information is concerned.
http://www.ibtimes.com/european-refugee-crisis-2015-50-asylum-seekers-landing-europe-are-syrian-un-report-2084862

I'm sure Tusk is aware of the UN figures, the question is, if you think he is lying or misrepresenting this, why is he doing it*?
Thats why I think this is a big deal because whatever reason for the statement it is important because of who is making it.

*To use the example of Cameron, its really likely that the figures on Syrian moderates he gave is inaccurate, the thing is it serves a particular purpose to give that figure, whats Tusks reason for misrepresenting it?

Lockstep

RDM_83 again wrote: »

I don't know, I know politicians misrepresent figures all the time and sometimes are very ignorant on topics but Tusk has been involved with grappling with this crisis for the last year and he isn't some Healy Rae type. You don't think the Guardian with their editorial slant about the crisis wouldn't have questioned him on those figures?

I would lean towards the idea that he has information from that the processing centers that there is a large amount of false claims occurring and being approved due to lack of time but perhaps not enough to be a publishable survey.

Otherwise he is going on a solo run and making false statements, whats his motivation for doing that, as I said I don't automatically trust politicians figures but I don't presume they are idiots especially at the level Tusk operates at, he is making these statements for a reason.
1) Because its true and the published figures are inaccurate
2) Because he is seeking to isolate Merkel and for some reason wants to torpedo her plans?

Either one of these options is food for thought it your in the camps that favours continuation large scale movements into Europe, because it either highlights systemic abuse of the system, or the EU further fragmenting at its highest level over the crisis.

Considering the UNHCR and Germany's actual refugee applications have Syrians as half of refugees, I'd put far more scope in this than the words of a politician. Unless he can source his arguments of course.

KingBrian2

Lockstep wrote: »

Considering the UNHCR and Germany's actual refugee applications have Syrians as half of refugees, I'd put far more scope in this than the words of a politician. Unless he can source his arguments of course.

Their are thousands of migrants waiting to be granted asylum in Greek islands and on the Italian Peninsular. It is absurd they are all Syrians as some on here would like us all to believe. Protests have been held in Berlin and Paris over the abuses of power in the region. Guess what! they were Kurds traditionally found in Turkey. So we have here migrants who are not from the countries they say they are from. Clearly Tusk knows this as do other EU member states.

Nodin

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Tusk is very much aware that many of these migrants are from the southern Mediterranean. The daily news constantly reports migrants from Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Morocco and Pakistan. He would not be doing his job well if he was not aware of all these facts. He has to speak to gvts that are receiving these migrants. It is virtually ludicrous to suggest Italian and Cypriot officials lieing to the President of the European Council.

I'd suggest that the President of the European Council talking nonsense to play to a domestic audience is more likely than the UNHCR fraudulently manufacturing figures myself.

Nodin

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Their are thousands of migrants waiting to be granted asylum in Greek islands and on the Italian Peninsular. It is absurd they are all Syrians as some on here would like us all to believe. Protests have been held in Berlin and Paris over the abuses of power in the region. Guess what! they were Kurds traditionally found in Turkey. So we have here migrants who are not from the countries they say they are from. Clearly Tusk knows this as do other EU member states.

I'm afraid that no one has suggested that or anything like it.

RDM_83 again

Nodin wrote: »

I'd suggest that the President of the European Council talking nonsense to play to a domestic audience is more likely than the UNHCR fraudulently manufacturing figures myself.

You see this is an answer I can understand but then its a serious issue because its showing greater European fragmentation and a key EU figure going out of his way to wreck Merkels plans.

Lockstep wrote: »

Considering the UNHCR and Germany's actual refugee applications have Syrians as half of refugees, I'd put far more scope in this than the words of a politician. Unless he can source his arguments of course.

How long is the assessment that occurs for this processing? I mean the one thing we do know from the Paris attack is that fake Syrian passports of a standard acceptable for processing are in use and available. Its possible that Tusk has access to deeper assessments/auditing of process (say by intelligence agencies) than is widely available.
As far as I know the German processing is rudimentary and completely swamped and its not like the UN has a history of being fast moving, responsive and accurate in its procedures .

Lockstep

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Their are thousands of migrants waiting to be granted asylum in Greek islands and on the Italian Peninsular. It is absurd they are all Syrians as some on here would like us all to believe. Protests have been held in Berlin and Paris over the abuses of power in the region. Guess what! they were Kurds traditionally found in Turkey. So we have here migrants who are not from the countries they say they are from. Clearly Tusk knows this as do other EU member states.

Who said they're all Syrian?
Citation needed. The UNHCR and German asylum figures both show that 50% of arrivals are Syrian.
Unless Tusk sources his arguments I'd see them as usual political crap

KingBrian2

Lockstep wrote: »

Who said they're all Syrian?
Citation needed. The UNHCR and German asylum figures both show that 50% of arrivals are Syrian.
Unless Tusk sources his arguments I'd see them as usual political crap

I see a potential danger here. We have all these Syrian refuges and they could find themselves being coopted into a foreign legion and used to return to their home country as an army for the purposes of aiding the rebels. This is a great fear, European territory being used to train an army something that should be avoided at all costs. Recent migration figures point to a massive number of military age personnel.

Europe was never built as a military alliance or to further the agenda of the world powers. President Tusk had better not allow this happen. His own Nation has experienced militarisation multiple times indeed as far back as the 18th century they were partioned by the Swedes, Russians and Prussians.

Remember your history Mr Tusk Proszę.

KingBrian2

Lockstep wrote: »

Who said they're all Syrian?
Citation needed. The UNHCR and German asylum figures both show that 50% of arrivals are Syrian.
Unless Tusk sources his arguments I'd see them as usual political crap

Those are only from the reports the media report on the undocumented figure is in contrast and includes an even greater number of non Syrians. We see movements of people all across North Africa descending on Greece and lets not forget Lampedusa a migration problem before the Syrian crisis so as far as migration is concerned Europe is really far behind in terms of sorting through the nationalities.

kettlehead

It looks like Schengen will be partially suspended for two years.

JPNelsforearm

Pakistan sends deported Pakistani immigrants back to Greece
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/03/pakistan-sends-deported-migrants-back-to-greece-eu


This is beyond a joke, where is that Spartan spirit, letting Turks and other assorted third worlders dictate our borders to us, its pathetic.

rgossip30

Lockstep wrote: »

I'm not sure why you put the word refugees in quotation marks. Seeing as the vast majority of arrivals are indeed from countries with very high success, it's the most accurate term to use.

At any rate, Syria is the main one to keep an eye on given it's responsible for the majority of arrivals. Third level participation rate is currently very low due to the war and many were unable to finish college but prior to this, 25% of eligible young people attended third level

However, even if you solely look at unskilled arrivals, the economic impact is positive, as the Commission report shows.

Positive or negative impact whatever ,the majority do not want large numbers of migrants .

Lockstep

rgossip30 wrote: »

Positive or negative impact whatever ,the majority do not want large numbers of migrants .

Indeed. It's a shame so many people are so uninformed on immigration , it's a depressing reality.

Lockstep

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Those are only from the reports the media report on the undocumented figure is in contrast and includes an even greater number of non Syrians. We see movements of people all across North Africa descending on Greece and lets not forget Lampedusa a migration problem before the Syrian crisis so as far as migration is concerned Europe is really far behind in terms of sorting through the nationalities.

If you look back over my posts, they're reliant on reports, not the "media". When the UNHCR's figures on arrivals match the actual figures arriving in Germany, the onus is on you to disprove this. Making vague references to the "undocumented" without any further data doesn't help your argument.

Lockstep

KingBrian2 wrote: »

I see a potential danger here. We have all these Syrian refuges and they could find themselves being coopted into a foreign legion and used to return to their home country as an army for the purposes of aiding the rebels. This is a great fear, European territory being used to train an army something that should be avoided at all costs. Recent migration figures point to a massive number of military age personnel.

Europe was never built as a military alliance or to further the agenda of the world powers. President Tusk had better not allow this happen. His own Nation has experienced militarisation multiple times indeed as far back as the 18th century they were partioned by the Swedes, Russians and Prussians.

Remember your history Mr Tusk Proszę.

This is fairly tinfoil hat stuff. Is there much evidence that there's a widespread refugee fifth column? ISIS have been trying to proselytse in the camps but I've yet to see any proof it's having much of an effect.

johnnyskeleton

mod note:

Simply posting videos is beneath the forum standards.

KingBrian2

Lockstep wrote: »

This is fairly tinfoil hat stuff. Is there much evidence that there's a widespread refugee third column? ISIS have been trying to proselytse in the camps but I've yet to see any proof it's having much of an effect.

I never said that your implying that is the case. Infact the terrorists were European citizens. What is uncontested is that these citizens are second or third generation immigrations. They never integrated into society and in most cases still retain a link to their lands in the Muslim world.

Lockstep

KingBrian2 wrote: »

I never said that your implying that is the case.

You said.

We have all these Syrian refuges and they could find themselves being coopted into a foreign legion and used to return to their home country as an army for the purposes of aiding the rebels.

Is there any evidence that this is the case?

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Infact the terrorists were European citizens. What is uncontested is that these citizens are second or third generation immigrations. They never integrated into society and in most cases still retain a link to their lands in the Muslim world.

Indeed, what would you solution here be then, given that the attackers were Europeans with immigrant backgrounds?

KingBrian2

Lockstep wrote: »

You said.

Is there any evidence that this is the case?



Indeed, what would you solution here be then, given that the attackers were Europeans with immigrant backgrounds?

Yes there is Cameroon is talking about a mysterious army of Syrians he intends to use to fight against ISIS. The only large number of Syrians are the allegedly vast numbers of people fleeing Syria as a result of war. These statements are dubious since equally large numbers of Iraqis, Afghani's and Libyans are traveling to Europe.

Lockstep

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Yes their is Cameroon is talking about a mysterious army of Syrians he intends to use to fight against ISIS. The only large number of Syrians are the allegedly vast numbers of people fleeing Syria as a result of war.

Do you mean the 70,000 moderates he said he would fight with Western support against ISIS? He was referring to those within Syria, not who had come to Europe.

KingBrian2 wrote: »

These statements are dubious since equally large numbers of Iraqis, Afghani's and Libyans are traveling to Europe.

Iraqis, Libyans and Afghanis compose under 28% of the arrivals in Europe. Syrians comprise half, despite being a country with a population half that of Spain. So not equally large. By any means.

KingBrian2

Lockstep wrote: »

Do you mean the 70,000 moderates he said he would fight with Western support against ISIS? He was referring to those within Syria, not who had come to Europe.


Iraqis, Libyans and Afghanis compose under 28% of the arrivals in Europe. Syrians comprise half, despite being a country with a population half that of Spain. So not equally large. By any means.

There are no Syrian moderates in that region, period. A scattered few perhaps but nowhere near the 10000 number.

The number of Iraqi, Libyan and Afghanis are understated. A refugee crisis was brewing in Iraq during the illegal invasion of that country and in many cases these people are classed as displaced. They have no nation they belong to. Try to discard the Palestinians who have no nation or the Tuaregs if you can.

rgossip30

Lockstep wrote: »

Indeed. It's a shame so many people are so uninformed on immigration , it's a depressing reality.

Do please enlighten me .

Lockstep

KingBrian2 wrote: »

There are no Syrian moderates in that region, period. A scattered few perhaps but nowhere near the 10000 number.

The number of Iraqi, Libyan and Afghanis are understated. A refugee crisis was brewing in Iraq during the illegal invasion of that country and in many cases these people are classed as displaced. They have no nation they belong to. Try to discard the Palestinians who have no nation or the Tuaregs if you can.

I'm really gonna start needing some citations from you. Your posts are big on statements but devoid of sources. Can you cite any of your claims?

Lockstep

rgossip30 wrote: »

Do please enlighten me .

On what? That Europeans are ignorant on immigration? Did you read the article?

KingBrian2

Lockstep wrote: »

I'm really gonna start needing some citations from you. Your posts are big on statements but devoid of sources. Can you cite any of your claims?

I will be glad to post sources as soon as we discuss a topic that is not subject to mindless speculation.