Season long bets/accumulators (2015/16)

inforfun

Mwah... Usually takes about 4 months to see your bets are ****ed not the entire season

Loafing Oaf

inforfun wrote: »

Mwah... Usually takes about 4 months to see your bets are ****ed not the entire season

Or in the case of my Sturridge top scorer bet last season about 4 weeks...:rolleyes:

But generally I prefer season bets to normal ones, feels more 'scientific' or something...

Austria!

I've done much better in long term bets than matchday betting for 3 years running. To be honest it's no surprise. This year not so much, but the last few years it looked like very careless price setting from some bookies, whereas they have match day betting down to a tee 99% of the time.

fuzzydunlop85

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

Anyone get RP today with the pullout?

I got it , will post up a summary later tonight / tomorrow morning.

inforfun

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Or in the case of my Sturridge top scorer bet last season about 4 weeks...:rolleyes:

But generally I prefer season bets to normal ones, feels more 'scientific' or something...

Took Benteke tgs @15 on PP so will see when he breaks every bone in his body

Damiencm

Is it possible to do long term accumulators on betfair?

Austria!

Is Bamford likely to score a lot in the league?

Loafing Oaf

Starscream25 wrote: »

Cheers loaf, just took me a while to wade through a few of them sub menus on pp to actually find it. 14/1 does look value tho, as mentioned already aguero is the main man, Chelsea the team to beat, hazard taking penos and costas chances of getting injured and higher chance of getting suspended, question is can aguero stay Injury free. I think this is the bet to go large on for me, cheers for pointing it out.

Hope you did it, he's now come in to 9s, which I always take as a sign that the initial odds were value. You rarely see these sort of big moves in matchday odds, perhaps a sign that the bookies aren't necessarily putting a whole lot of thought into the initial odds for some of these long-term markets?

Austria!

Liverpool top 5 finish @1.91 is exceptional value. I think they're stronger than last season (huge benteke fan), while spurs are relying on Kane to not suffer second season syndrome

By contrast they're @1.44 to finish ahead of spurs, and it's almost the same bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/liverpool/specials

spock.

Roberto Martinez next manager to leave post @ 19 (skybet)

Everton have an awful run of fixtures after the first week.
They could easily be in the relegation zone after 10 matches.

That coupled with their disappointing last season and a lack of quality signings could be enough to send Martinez packing.

seanhynes

spock. wrote: »

Roberto Martinez next manager to leave post @ 19 (skybet)

Everton have an awful run of fixtures after the first week.
They could easily be in the relegation zone after 10 matches.

That coupled with their disappointing last season and a lack of quality signings could be enough to send Martinez packing.

Ranieri will be gone soon after ha ha

Warper

Leicester to be relegated @ 3-1
Barca Champions League 10-3
Derby promoted 9-4

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Hope you did it, he's now come in to 9s, which I always take as a sign that the initial odds were value. You rarely see these sort of big moves in matchday odds, perhaps a sign that the bookies aren't necessarily putting a whole lot of thought into the initial odds for some of these long-term markets?

Actually I was getting this mixed up with city/Aguero double, the bet concerned is still 14/1 so this is all bollocks really.

Any thoughts on PFA POTY, doesn't seem to be a lot of interest on the various tip sites. Fabregas could be a good bet if Chelsea win. Sanchez also a strong contender if he builds on last year. Maybe Sterling if he steps up...

fuzzydunlop85

Ok folks I got the rp football preview so heres a summary of the main bets.

PL
There are a plethora of tips for the pl but will wade through them as best I can.

Outrights - Main article going for Man city [/B (@ 3-1 betfred/betway) but lot of other tipsters going for Chelsea, while a couple go for arsenal. Main reasoning seems to be concerns about terrys fitness, lack of signings and no team retaining the league since 2009. Also notes that city were were level on points, goals for and against on new years day but for a shocking spell in january when toure left for the african nations and aguero suffered an injury.
Relegation - Sunderland / Leicester (9-4 and 3-1 general). Basically leicester have gambled seriosuly in sacking Pearson and Sunderland have failed to make any shrewd signings and could pay the ultimate price after finishing 17th,14th and 16th the last 3 years.
Top scorer - Doubts over Aguero being able to stay fit all season lead the post to go for Sanchez and Rooney, while Austin showed the step up from the championship to the PL isn't as difficult as many make out and go for Deeny as a decent outsider at 80-1.

Championship
New Manger Paul clement takes his first managerial role at Derby after successful coaching stints at psg , chelsea and real madrid. He has attempted to shore up a leaky defence by signing Alex Pearce who played all 46 games in Readings 2011-2012 campaign when they had the best defensive record in the league. Ince and Bent have made their loan moves permanent, Weiman could prove to be a shrewd signing and top scorer Chris Martin is back to full fitness. Middlesboro tipped for a strong campaign but are lacing goals after losing bamford (rumored to be after rhodes though). Brentford tipped to go well also along with wolves.

Relegation- Blackburn and bolton are both tipped to have difficult years , rovers suffering from a transfer embargo and bolton are under severe financial constraints and Lennon has spoken about the difficulties he has faced this summer in relation to his squad.

Top scorer - Chris Martin of derby scored 18 league goals last season despite hamstring injuries ruining the last three months of the season and he can flourish in a side brimming with attacking talent. Dicko and Matthius of wolves and sheffield wednesday can go well at bigger prices.

League One


Outright - Favorites have only won this once in the last 20 years. Sheffield United go off at 11-2 after hiring Nigel Atkins a man who has led Scunthorpe and Southampton out of this division. Wigan have a larger wage bill than most and are still receiving hefty parachute payments and retain a lot of players with premier league experience. They also have signed Grigg of Mk Dons who knocked in 20 goals for MK Dons last season and keeper O'Donnell of Walsall who kept 21 clean sheets last season. Also tip doncaster and bury at bigger prices.
Top scorer - Gregory (Millwall) , Bradshaw ( Walsall)
Relegation - Oldham, Rochdale.

League 2 , oxford tipped for the league and cambridge at a bigger price. Tubbs is tipped for top goalscorer and Mansfield for relegation.

PSV , Porto , fenerbache, rangers tipped to win their leagues. Aberdeen tipped without celtic. Monaco tipped for top 3 at 4/5 ( any thoughts on this lass?, looks a good price).

Austria!

Anything else which is hotly tipped? Like a certain team to finish top half?

fuzzydunlop85

Austria! wrote: »

Anything else which is hotly tipped? Like a certain team to finish top half?

Palace and Newcastle fancied for top ten.

fuzzydunlop85

Stoke top midlands , boro top 6, Wigan top 6, Luton top 6, Aberdeen w/o Celtic , rangers /barca /juve /psv /porto /fenerbache O/R , Monaco and Roma top 3, 10er pays 10,000 worth a go !

Super-Rush

1st season bet this terms is;

Dortmund without Bayern.
Rangers outright.
Aberdeen without Celtic.
Roma without Juventus.
PSG outright.
PSV outright.
Barcelona outright.
Derby to finish in top 2.
Stoke top 10 finish.
€10 returns €22,000 with PP.

Austria!

Spurs to finish above Southampthon @1.67 looks a lock

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/tottenham-v-southampton/tournament-match-betting

Smithwicks Man

Austria! wrote: »

Spurs to finish above Southampthon @1.67 looks a lock

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/tottenham-v-southampton/tournament-match-betting

Wouldn't have as much faith in Spurs as you to be honest, feel their squad is very underwhelming.

Lamposts

Southampthon are going to have a great season especially with JROD back in the squad.

Starscream25

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Actually I was getting this mixed up with city/Aguero double, the bet concerned is still 14/1 so this is all bollocks really.

Any thoughts on PFA POTY, doesn't seem to be a lot of interest on the various tip sites. Fabregas could be a good bet if Chelsea win. Sanchez also a strong contender if he builds on last year. Maybe Sterling if he steps up...

Not a hope for sterling IMO, he'll be found out, he's a little better than average but that's about it, fabregas, he's been there done that and has proven time and time again that he's world class, he'll be in there with a shout, same with hazard. Aguero I'm not sure of, he'll defo put many goals in the net this season but I'm not convinced they'll win the league, Although if he gets the golden boot which I think he will then that could swing it in his favour.
I see this as Chelsea's year again so I'd be drawn to hazard again even tho he won it last year.
I'm not too sure about Sanchez, top class player and after the charity shield game arsenal will have a better mentality going up against Chelsea again aswell as wenger getting that monkey off his back beating mourinho, but I'd put Rooney ahead of Sanchez, being the front man this season with a more aggressive attack minded side he's sure to get a good few goals and assists too

It's a market I'm staying away from but I'd go for Hazard again, best player in the premier at the moment for me.
I'm sure some of the lads here would have a much better Synopsis.

Austria!

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Wouldn't have as much faith in Spurs as you to be honest, feel their squad is very underwhelming.

I think they're stronger than last year with Alderwield in there, plus the younger players are older now.

Southampthon are not going to match last year. Alderwield, Schederlin and Clyne is a lot to lose. Europa league will take its toll too.

But if you don't expect spurs to do well you could be interested in...

Austria! wrote: »

Liverpool top 5 finish @1.91 is exceptional value.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/liverpool/specials

Loafing Oaf

Starscream25 wrote: »

Not a hope for sterling IMO, he'll be found out, he's a little better than average but that's about it, fabregas, he's been there done that and has proven time and time again that he's world class, he'll be in there with a shout, same with hazard. Aguero I'm not sure of, he'll defo put many goals in the net this season but I'm not convinced they'll win the league, Although if he gets the golden boot which I think he will then that could swing it in his favour.
I see this as Chelsea's year again so I'd be drawn to hazard again even tho he won it last year.
I'm not too sure about Sanchez, top class player and after the charity shield game arsenal will have a better mentality going up against Chelsea again aswell as wenger getting that monkey off his back beating mourinho, but I'd put Rooney ahead of Sanchez, being the front man this season with a more aggressive attack minded side he's sure to get a good few goals and assists too

It's a market I'm staying away from but I'd go for Hazard again, best player in the premier at the moment for me.
I'm sure some of the lads here would have a much better Synopsis.

Thanks for the detailed feedback. Yeah I've gone right off Sterling, had a look at him for Young POTY but even there 13/2 is too short for me. Briefly tempted by Courtois at 16/1 for that market but goalies rarely win these things do they?

Think I'm gonna go with Sanchez for POTY: I don't have much on Arsenal elsewhere and if they win or go close, I reckon you can be 75% sure Sanchez will be their main contender for this award, whereas Chelsea could have 4 or 5 viable candidates. Definitely a better bet @ 10/1 for POTY than at 20/1 for Golden Boot IMO.

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Stoke top midlands , boro top 6, Wigan top 6, Luton top 6, Aberdeen w/o Celtic , rangers /barca /juve /psv /porto /fenerbache O/R , Monaco and Roma top 3, 10er pays 10,000 worth a go !

I've never done one of these really elaborate accas, seems like it would be a chore keeping an eye on it. The long-shot acca I'm looking at is winners of the four English divisions, also round 1,000/1.

Couldn't locate that Racing Post Supplement, even though I saw what looked like latest issue of the paper, maybe it was sold separately. Anyway, I've thought long enough and hard enough about this, gonna go with what I have now...

inforfun

Unibet have Aguero TGS @6 for limited time only.

fuzzydunlop85

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Thanks for the detailed feedback. Yeah I've gone right off Sterling, had a look at him for Young POTY but even there 13/2 is too short for me. Briefly tempted by Courtois at 16/1 for that market but goalies rarely win these things do they?

Think I'm gonna go with Sanchez for POTY: I don't have much on Arsenal elsewhere and if they win or go close, I reckon you can be 75% sure Sanchez will be their main contender for this award, whereas Chelsea could have 4 or 5 viable candidates. Definitely a better bet @ 10/1 for POTY than at 20/1 for Golden Boot IMO.



I've never done one of these really elaborate accas, seems like it would be a chore keeping an eye on it. The long-shot acca I'm looking at is winners of the four English divisions, also round 1,000/1.

Couldn't locate that Racing Post Supplement, even though I saw what looked like latest issue of the paper, maybe it was sold separately. Anyway, I've thought long enough and hard enough about this, gonna go with what I have now...

Not really much of a chore just keep an eye on league tables every now and again ! Good luck with picking winners of each league would be no easy feat, think it's easier to try and pick a few teams for top 6 /3 over a few more leagues myself but good luck with what u go for! Btw I posted the posts picks from their preview a couple pages back, (city,derby , Wigan Oxford )

Trimm Trabb

Did the yes/no Premier League antepost coupon in Boylesports today:

Arsenal to finish above Man Utd - YES 4/5

Liverpool to win 66 or more points - YES 5/6 (They got 62 last year)

Spurs to finish in the top 6 - YES 8/11

Southampton to win 57 or more points - NO 5/6 (They got 60 last year but they have lost a couple of players and have Europa League to contend with too)

Will WBA finish ahead of Villa- YES 8/11

Will Newcastle win 42 or more points - YES 5/6 (They got 39 last season and with a new manager and a few new players they should do better)

Leicester to win 39 points or more - NO 5/6 (They got 41 last year but most of those points came in that crazy run at the end - they have lost Cambiasso and changed their manager and I think they will get relegated as a result)

Definitely a few good singles in there and those 7 pay 55/1 as an accum. Problem with these bets is a teams fortunes can change drastically depending on managerial changes/signings after the season starts - for example Pardew going to Palace last season transformed both Palace's and Newcastle's seasons.

Loafing Oaf

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Not really much of a chore just keep an eye on league tables every now and again ! Good luck with picking winners of each league would be no easy feat, think it's easier to try and pick a few teams for top 6 /3 over a few more leagues myself but good luck with what u go for! Btw I posted the posts picks from their preview a couple pages back, (city,derby , Wigan Oxford )

Cheers for that, I guess if you're used to keeping up with non-English leagues it's not such a hassle. What chance do we think Benzema will come to Arsenal? Could throw my top-of-league wagers out of whack if he does...

Smithwicks Man

Austria! wrote: »

I think they're stronger than last year with Alderwield in there, plus the younger players are older now.

Southampthon are not going to match last year. Alderwield, Schederlin and Clyne is a lot to lose. Europa league will take its toll too.

But if you don't expect spurs to do well you could be interested in...

Not a fan of the price there either to be honest!

I think the top 4 is almost a given which means there's Liverpool, Spurs and co fighting it out for 5th and hoping they can nab 4th if one of the top 4 collapses.

I just don't have enough faith in either of them and don't fancy backing 'Pool at odds on!

Shanotheslayer

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Did the yes/no Premier League antepost coupon in Boylesports today:

Arsenal to finish above Man Utd - YES 4/5

Liverpool to win 66 or more points - YES 5/6 (They got 62 last year)

Spurs to finish in the top 6 - YES 8/11

Southampton to win 57 or more points - NO 5/6 (They got 60 last year but they have lost a couple of players and have Europa League to contend with too)

Will WBA finish ahead of Villa- YES 8/11

Will Newcastle win 42 or more points - YES 5/6 (They got 39 last season and with a new manager and a few new players they should do better)

Leicester to win 39 points or more - NO 5/6 (They got 41 last year but most of those points came in that crazy run at the end - they have lost Cambiasso and changed their manager and I think they will get relegated as a result)

Definitely a few good singles in there and those 7 pay 55/1 as an accum. Problem with these bets is a teams fortunes can change drastically depending on managerial changes/signings after the season starts - for example Pardew going to Palace last season transformed both Palace's and Newcastle's seasons.

Only one I disagree with there is the Liverpool points. Best of luck tho, All have a great chance!