The 2015 All Ireland Senior Football Championship

Fr Tod Umptious

Now with the league done I think it’s time to start this thread.

Here are my own thoughts

Leinster - Once again it’s a one horse race, Dublin are by far and away the best team in the province, that saw two of it’s teams head down to Div 3 this year, after being in Div 1 last year.
They will be looking to put things right on the AI stage after their loss to Donegal last year.
They have an easy enough run to the final, QF v A side qualifier (possibly Munster loser) and SF v Connaught Champ or B side qualifier

Munster - I think this is a slam dunk for Kerry
Kerry were lucky to a certain extent last year that they did not have to meet Dublin in the final, that’s not saying they had a soft All Ireland, far from it, they had to work very hard in two games v Mayo and v Donegal to win that title, but I somehow don’t think they would have won it had they meet Dublin in the final.
This year, assuming that they win Munster I think they have a very good chance to get to the final, based mainly on the draw.
As I mentioned they (likely) play the Munster final in Killarney, then face a less than taxing QF v the A side qualifier which will likely be one of, Offaly, Longford, Loais, Carlow, Kildare, Clare, Limerick, Sligo, Roscommon, Cavan, Monaghan, Fermanagh, Antrim or London.
I am intentionally leaving Dublin out of that list because I doubt they will lose Leinster, plus I would not expect Monaghan to be there either (see below)
Anyway none of that list would trouble Kerry in a QF
Then they play the SF v the Ulster Champs or a B side qualifier, and the B sides will be one of Galway, Letrim, Mayo, Louth, Westmeath, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Waterford, Tipp, Donegal, Tyrone, Derry, Down, Armagh.
That may be a tough one for Kerry depending on how they are when they get to that point, they had an indifferent league campaign and I think they could have problems at the back. The return of Gooch should help their forwards.
But it’s certainly a game they can win so they will be back in an All Ireland.

After seeing Cork in the league final today I think that they have not progressed a single iota from last year.
Getting to the league playoffs is fine but losing by 11 pts at that stage is a much greater indication of your championship capabilities than the 7 league games is, see Mayo 2010 and Cork 2014 for perfect examples of this.
Cork will lose the Munster final, possibly win their 4th Round qualifier v an A side and then lose again to Dublin in the QF.

Connaught - Mayo have a tough opening game in Salthill v Galway (if they get past NY and Leitrim).
It will be Mayo’s first game and Galway 3rd. i would not be surprised if Galway came out winners here but that being said they have a new manager and did not get out of Div II, but on the other had were missing Corifinn players for a good bit of the league.
The loser of this game will have three B side qualifier games before they get to Croke Park, and those may be against the tough northern teams just as easily as they may be against the weaker Leinster teams on the B side.
The winner will likely play Roscommon in the final.
If it’s a Mayo It’d expect them to beat Roscommon, in Castlebar, but I’m not sure how Galway v Roscommon would do.

Mayo really need to win Connaught to have any chance of having another crack at the AI, but even then the path is hard.
QF v B side, likely to be tough nordies (or Galway maybe), and then SF likely v Dublin.
I think Mayo have to ebb like the Cork of the 2000s, they have to just keep sticking at it and something might break in their favour, for five straight years they lost to Kerry in the SF or Final and they eventually won on the 6th attempt v a team that did not expect to be there.
They are a good few years on the road now and based on the league may not have the same vigor as they have had in previous years.
If Ros or Galway win Connaught then I don’t expect they to progress beyond that tough B side QF, they don’t have the big game experience that you need at that level (see Monaghan 2013)

Ulster - Again this year it’s very uneven between the A and the B side. Monaghan and Cavan are the two best on the A side while the B side is much tougher.
I’d expect Monaghan to come through to the final from the A and I have no idea about the B, but possibly Donegal or maybe Armagh, plus the losers in the B will have a really tough qualifier route v other Ulster B siders and Mayo\Galway.
Monaghan have a big opportunity here, they have a decent path to the Ulster final and winning that will help them get back to where they were in 2013. That day lack of big game experience contributed to their loss, and losing the Ulster championship last year put them back a bit as it meant a QF v Dublin, but this year if they win Ulster I think they will have a good chance to get to a SF v Munster Champ or A side qualifier.
Their league SF appearance did them the world of good too.

So in conclusion, the head says Dublin v Kerry final with Dublin winning it, the heart says Mayo v Monaghan with Mayo winning it.

Stinicker

It will almost surely be a Dublin and Kerry final and if that happens Kerry will win it unless of course Joe McQuillan is refereeing it then it is clear the GAA are trying to award the title to Dublin like 2011 and 2013. However Mayo, Monaghan and Donegal will still have a big say. Especially Monaghan who should have beaten Dublin the league Semi-Final. Still I fully expect Kerry to retain Sam Maguire in the Kingdom for another winter.

LeinsterDub

After their performance in croker today it's Dublin's to lose

LeinsterDub

Stinicker wrote: »

It will almost surely be a Dublin and Kerry final and if that happens Kerry will win it unless of course Joe McQuillan is refereeing it then it is clear the GAA are trying to award the title to Dublin like 2011 and 2913

Sorry were you making a point? I couldn't hear it over all the begrudging going on

ciarriaithuaidh

Ignore Stinicker..he certainly doesn't represent the views of the majority of Kerry fans. Refs don't win or lose games, teams do.

Fairly decent summation Fr Tod, even if there is the usual tinge of bitterness towards Kerry seeping through!

Dublin are certainly deserved favourites, Kerry second favourites based on last year mainly, but it's never as simple as a normal 2 horse race. Monaghan, Mayo, Donegal..maybe even a Roscommon or Armagh could rattle a few cages. Cork are a bit of a shambles and were deluding themselves if they believed their league results were a true indication of progress. There is the bones of a decent football team there but can't see anything happening with the current management. Galway are the dark horse I'd throw into the mix. I think Kevin Walsh may get them going well, maybe not totally this year though, but I do think they are one to watch.

Can't wait for it all to kick off. This is the worst stage of the year actually, the gap between the league and start of the real action. :mad:
Can't wait to hear this again..after all these years I still get a tingle down the spine hearing it!

Dirty Dingus McGee

Not as excited as I used to be simply because we have to endure 2 months of largely uncompetitive sh1te util the championship really starts in July.

If there isn't a surprise winner then hopefully Dublin win the championship playing a blistering attacking style of football.Although this kind of contradicts what I said above I wouldn't mind seeing them hammer everyone along the way to be honest.

DDC1990

I may be wrong Tod but your idea that Kerry get a QF against an A side QF isn't right.

If Kerry win Munster, the Quarter Final for Kerry will be against the loser of the Ulster Final or the team that beats them. So Donegal, Monaghan, Armagh, Tyrone or the qualifying team that beats them. Hardly an easy draw as you put it.

Not only that but then you have another Ulster team in the Semi. If Cork get their act together, Kerry and the Ulster side of the draw will have the toughest route there.

For my money:
Ulster: Monaghan
Connacht: Roscommon (have had a feeling about them all year)
Munster: Kerry (but nowhere near as easy as people are predicting, Cork won't play like they did against Dublin)
Leinster: Dublin

munsterlegend

DDC1990 wrote: »

I may be wrong Tod but your idea that Kerry get a QF against an A side QF isn't right.

If Kerry win Munster, the Quarter Final for Kerry will be against the loser of the Ulster Final or the team that beats them. So Donegal, Monaghan, Armagh, Tyrone or the qualifying team that beats them. Hardly an easy draw as you put it.

Not only that but then you have another Ulster team in the Semi. If Cork get their act together, Kerry and the Ulster side of the draw will have the toughest route there.

For my money:
Ulster: Monaghan
Connacht: Roscommon (have had a feeling about them all year)
Munster: Kerry (but nowhere near as easy as people are predicting, Cork won't play like they did against Dublin)
Leinster: Dublin

I don't know how you can be so sure that cork won't play like they did against dublin again. seems to be a recurring theme. the lack of basic footballing ability when they have possession of some of our players is what keep striking me. dublin backs can come up the field and look so comfortable. loughrey is a half back and should be played out there.

Fr Tod Umptious

DDC1990 wrote: »

I may be wrong Tod but your idea that Kerry get a QF against an A side QF isn't right.

If Kerry win Munster, the Quarter Final for Kerry will be against the loser of the Ulster Final or the team that beats them. So Donegal, Monaghan, Armagh, Tyrone or the qualifying team that beats them. Hardly an easy draw as you put it.

Not only that but then you have another Ulster team in the Semi. If Cork get their act together, Kerry and the Ulster side of the draw will have the toughest route there.

For my money:
Ulster: Monaghan
Connacht: Roscommon (have had a feeling about them all year)
Munster: Kerry (but nowhere near as easy as people are predicting, Cork won't play like they did against Dublin)
Leinster: Dublin

You would think that is the case as is every other year that they have had a "pre determined" quarter finals they have paired the provinces the same as the SF.

But they changed it this time.
Munster champs play their QF v Leinster runners up or the team that beats them or the team that beats the Munster runner up, all of which will come from the A side.

So its Meath, Cavan, Sligo, Laois, etc.

thinkstoomuch1

Cork may come within few points to kerry simply as kerry will always control the game tempo but may or may not have appetite or desire destroy cork as unlike last year don't need confidence of such win and I expect kerry be under cooked a bit in they won't show full hand when know have cork number before ball is kicked


Of course we will read how they fear cork they are a challenge the usual yerra and some in cork so gullible they will swallow an anchor and belive it when nothing is farther from the truth


Ulster hard to call

Kerry and Dublin only all Ireland contenders
Mayo haven't a hope under duel management it simply won't work
Galway under Walsh coming team had fine work out v Dublin in challenge last week


Walsh good manager and playing a defensive system but have midfield and forwards

Imo could win connaught and meath tipp two teams do well in the qualifiers



Cork havent a hope winning all Ireland but lucky draw may get to all Ireland quatre final in another false dawn

DDC1990

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

You would think that is the case as is every other year that they have had a "pre determined" quarter finals they have paired the provinces the same as the SF.

But they changed it this time.
Munster champs play their QF v Leinster runners up or the team that beats them or the team that beats the Munster runner up, all of which will come from the A side.

So its Meath, Cavan, Sligo, Laois, etc.

Thanks Tod totally missed that.
Crazy really when you think about it.

The old system made a lot more sense. That's a. Big advantage for Kerry this year, if they face into the likes of Meath rather then Donegal.

Fr Tod Umptious

thinkstoomuch1 wrote: »

Cork may come within few points to kerry simply as kerry will always control the game tempo but may or may not have appetite or desire destroy cork as unlike last year don't need confidence of such win and I expect kerry be under cooked a bit in they won't show full hand when know have cork number before ball is kicked


Of course we will read how they fear cork they are a challenge the usual yerra and some in cork so gullible they will swallow an anchor and belive it when nothing is farther from the truth


Ulster hard to call

Kerry and Dublin only all Ireland contenders
Mayo haven't a hope under duel management it simply won't work
Galway under Walsh coming team had fine work out v Dublin in challenge last week


Walsh good manager and playing a defensive system but have midfield and forwards

Imo could win connaught and meath tipp two teams do well in the qualifiers



Cork havent a hope winning all Ireland but lucky draw may get to all Ireland quatre final in another false dawn

It will not be dual managers that will be the reason that Mayo do not win the All Ireland.

And as for Cork getting a luck draw to make it to the QF, they already have that, the A side is very weak.

thinkstoomuch1

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

It will not be dual managers that will be the reason that Mayo do not win the All Ireland.

And as for Cork getting a luck draw to make it to the QF, they already have that, the A side is very weak.

When they loose to kerry who can they possibly meet please

Can you give me a possible list of opponents as I can't find it anywhere

randd1

Leinster - Dublin
Connaught - Mayo
Ulster - Donegal
Munster - Kerry

AI - Kerry

Dubs obviously favourites for the AI, justifiably so and will be the team to stop, but I reckon at some stage, whether the SF or final, Kerry will face Dublin, and I think that Kerry could do a number on them in a one off game, especially if Dublin have the hype going into over-drive, there's just something about Kerry.

Donegal with an outside chance of beating either two, but I don't see Donegal beating the two of them. I reckon Sam will either be in Dublin or Kerry by the end of the year, I'll give Kerry the nod just because they have a bit more of the cute-hoorism about them.

Fr Tod Umptious

thinkstoomuch1 wrote: »

When they loose to kerry who can they possibly meet please

Can you give me a possible list of opponents as I can't find it anywhere

Likely one of Offaly, Longford, Loais, Carlow, Kildare, Clare, Limerick, Sligo, Cavan, Fermanagh, Antrim, London.
Possible but unlikely Roscommon, Monaghan, Dublin

Fr Tod Umptious

DDC1990 wrote: »

Thanks Tod totally missed that.
Crazy really when you think about it.

The old system made a lot more sense. That's a. Big advantage for Kerry this year, if they face into the likes of Meath rather then Donegal.

I'd prefer a totally open draw for the QF and the SF, which is something we have never had.

With the only restriction being the existing one that provincial finalists cannot meet in the QF.

Fireball07

Limerick for Sam.

Boom__Boom

http://www.gaa.ie/content/documents/GAA%20Football%20Championships%202015.pdf

All the details here.

Fr Tod Umptious

Boom__Boom wrote: »

http://www.gaa.ie/content/documents/GAA%20Football%20Championships%202015.pdf

All the details here.

Handy document, but there is an error.

How can Tipp v Waterfrod be A when it then becomes B when the winner plays Kerry ?
The same goes for the other side of the draw, Clear v Limerick are B but Cork are A.

If I recall the night of the draw they did not make it clear on TV which was A and B in Munster, unlike they did for the other provinces.

Nidgeweasel

Monaghan should win Ulster given the draw.

Can't see them realistically challenging for the All Ireland though. They aren't good enough to win it. An Ulster win and a semi final would be a brilliant season for them and represent progress. Thing is though is whether they have enough to push on after that. I don't think they do.


Dublin will win the All Ireland but outside of that you could have a very interesting championship with a fairly level playing field, the rossies, Armagh, Galway, down etc all primed for a good run i'd say.

Ollieboy

randd1 wrote: »

Leinster - Dublin
Connaught - Mayo
Ulster - Donegal
Munster - Kerry

AI - Kerry

Dubs obviously favourites for the AI, justifiably so and will be the team to stop, but I reckon at some stage, whether the SF or final, Kerry will face Dublin, and I think that Kerry could do a number on them in a one off game, especially if Dublin have the hype going into over-drive, there's just something about Kerry.

Donegal with an outside chance of beating either two, but I don't see Donegal beating the two of them. I reckon Sam will either be in Dublin or Kerry by the end of the year, I'll give Kerry the nod just because they have a bit more of the cute-hoorism about them.

Totally agree with this.

Donegal will have a tough campaign in Ulster but they are miles ahead of the other teams in Ulster. The problem in Ulster is everyone will want to beat Donegal and that makes for a lot of tough physical games and it might be to much for the Donegal panel size. If they go a game without Murphy then someone might get a result against them. If they don't win Ulster it will be very hard for them to get to the AI final.

Dublin have tried to change their style of play this year and that won't be tested until a AI final. I just don't think you can change a style of play and win a AI in the same year, but Dublin might do it due to the positive draw.

Galway are my dark horse this year and I expect them get to 1/4 final.

Either Kerry v Dublin or Donegal v Dublin final would be brilliant. Would love to see it Donegal v Dublin as they really hate each other.

iDave

The B side looks like bit of a nightmare. The tough side of Ulster plus Galway and Meath will all be in there at some point.

Nidgeweasel

Ollieboy wrote: »

Would love to see it Donegal v Dublin as they really hate each other.

Do we?

News to me Ted.

Ollieboy

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Do we?

News to me Ted.

hate might be too strong of a word, strongly dislike then.

And that wouldn't be news to either camp.

Nidgeweasel

Ollieboy wrote: »

hate might be too strong of a word, strongly dislike then.

And that wouldn't be news to either camp.

There'd be no more antipathy towards Dublin from Donegal than there would be in most other counties really. It's always nice to bring the Jacks down a peg or two and on the flip side Dublin might be abit arsey because the 'culchies' spoiled their procession last summer and feel like they have to prove a point but hey ho.

Things got a bit narky towards the end of the league game but that happens in a lot of games regardless.

corny

randd1 wrote: »

Leinster - Dublin
Connaught - Mayo
Ulster - Donegal
Munster - Kerry

AI - Kerry

Dubs obviously favourites for the AI, justifiably so and will be the team to stop, but I reckon at some stage, whether the SF or final, Kerry will face Dublin, and I think that Kerry could do a number on them in a one off game, especially if Dublin have the hype going into over-drive, there's just something about Kerry.

Donegal with an outside chance of beating either two, but I don't see Donegal beating the two of them. I reckon Sam will either be in Dublin or Kerry by the end of the year, I'll give Kerry the nod just because they have a bit more of the cute-hoorism about them.

I wouldn't be certain of the result between Dublin and Kerry but one thing i can tell you with absolute certainty the Dublin management and players are not effected by the stuff you're talking about. Always find it lazy to suggest otherwise. The bulk of the side have two AI medals and experience coming out of their arses. You couldn't get a more level headed man in charge either.

I think Dublin will win the AI.

Huge respect for Kerry. Very interested to see if they recapture the same bite they had last year. If they can, they are a match for all.

I sincerely doubt Mayo will eclipse their performance level under Horan so you'd have to say they won't be good enough to beat Dublin in a semi.

Hope i'm wrong about Donegal but i think this might be the year the age of some of their key players shows. Would pay double to see Dublin try out plan B against them this year.

Of the rest, Armagh and Tyrone will test (without beating) the aforementioned if they meet them in August.

Jampip

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

Not as excited as I used to be simply because we have to endure 2 months of largely uncompetitive sh1te util the championship really starts in July.

If there isn't a surprise winner then hopefully Dublin win the championship playing a blistering attacking style of football.Although this kind of contradicts what I said above I wouldn't mind seeing them hammer everyone along the way to be honest.

I expect Monaghan to win but Cavan vs Monaghan should be a very competitive game on May 24th.

I also don't think Monaghan will have it as easy to an Ulster final as some people think. Fermanagh drew with Armagh in the League and are improving. They still have a few decent players knocking around.

Nidgeweasel

Jampip wrote: »

Fermanagh

Jampip

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Care to elaborate? They made the final of Division 3 this year. Monaghan did the same two years ago, nobody had given them a prayer against Donegal in the Ulster final and they won it.

In Sean Quigley they have the top scorer in the League and a forward who would win his place in most teams over the country.

Nidgeweasel

Jampip wrote: »

Care to elaborate? They made the final of Division 3 this year. Monaghan did the same two years ago, nobody had given them a prayer against Donegal in the Ulster final and they won it.

In Sean Quigley they have the top scorer in the League and a forward who would win his place in most teams over the country.

I think sums it up more than adequately.

DoctaDee

corny,95260580 wrote:

I wouldn't be certain of the result between Dublin and Kerry but one thing i can tell you with absolute certainty the Dublin management and players are not effected by the stuff you're talking about. Always find it lazy to suggest otherwise. The bulk of the side have two AI medals and experience coming out of their arses. You couldn't get a more level headed man in charge either.

I think Dublin will win the AI. ........
.

Yeah this pretty much sums up my own opinion too. While Dublin may not win the AI, to suggest journo/ media commentary as over hype is to overlook the fact that they've been the best team in the country for a good 2 years and would stand alone as the only team capable of putting any of the others to the sword. That said I would hasten to add that I think it will be an extremely tight affair with no team offering Dublin the opportunity to play expansive football at the business end of the championship.

Jim Gavin did extremely well to deflect the defeat to Donegal on himself, but in reality he didn't instruct them to play with only 2 defenders. Having spoken to 2 lads that played that day they know that ultimately the downfall was in trying to beat Donegal into the ground. The fact that they couldn't and then weren't even in a position then to consolidate their lead was their ultimate demise.

If Dublin avoid another potential slip up to Donegal I'd expect them once again to win the AI at Kerrys expense.